{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"SUM Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"a6b32d2d-e1f6-4840-811c-86c791f40000","symbol":"SUM","name":"Summerset Group Holdings Limited","exchange":"NZE","country":"NZ","asset_type":"equity","currency":"NZD","sector":"Healthcare","industry":"Medical Care Facilities"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. 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record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":15},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.8,"sample":15},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-1.6,"sample":15},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-2.7,"sample":15},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-3.8,"sample":14},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-4.3,"sample":14},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-4.4,"sample":14},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-6.3,"sample":14},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-7.3,"sample":14},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-7.7,"sample":14},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-8.9,"sample":14},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-9.3,"sample":14},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-9.3,"sample":14},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-9.6,"sample":14},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-9.5,"sample":14},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-11.3,"sample":14},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-9.9,"sample":14},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-10.2,"sample":14},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-9.6,"sample":14},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-8.5,"sample":14},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-8.0,"sample":14},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-6.2,"sample":14},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-6.5,"sample":14},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-5.9,"sample":14},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-5.4,"sample":14},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-6.1,"sample":14}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":3,"completedEpisodes":3,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":14.4,"averageExpectedMove":14.4,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":10.7,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":3,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-3.1,"medianReturn":-3.0,"confidenceLow":43.9,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":3,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-14.3,"medianReturn":-14.4,"confidenceLow":43.9,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":3,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-11.6,"medianReturn":-11.5,"confidenceLow":43.9,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-1.3,"sample":3},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":3},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-1.3,"sample":3},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-3.1,"sample":3},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-3.4,"sample":3},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-6.0,"sample":3},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-6.7,"sample":3},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-8.1,"sample":3},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-11.4,"sample":3},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-11.2,"sample":3},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-12.8,"sample":3},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-14.3,"sample":3},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-13.7,"sample":3},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-14.7,"sample":3},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-14.5,"sample":3},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-13.5,"sample":3},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-14.1,"sample":3},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-15.0,"sample":3},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-13.9,"sample":3},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-14.4,"sample":3},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-13.4,"sample":3},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-14.1,"sample":3},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-12.9,"sample":3},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-11.2,"sample":3},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-11.9,"sample":3},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-11.6,"sample":3}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"caution","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":7.1,"averageReturn":-9.3,"sample":14},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 7.1% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of -9.3% across 14 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 5 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.6 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 3.3% across 14 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 3.4 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-07-10","price":8.75}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2024-12-20","price":12.387494},{"date":"2025-01-10","price":12.348844},{"date":"2025-01-24","price":12.368169}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2024-12-27","price":12.754674},{"date":"2025-01-17","price":12.745011},{"date":"2025-01-31","price":12.561421}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[11.0065,10.9204,11.3633,11.4889,11.1217,11.4019,11.5855,11.914,11.8754,12.03,11.885,12.1266,12.3005,12.658,12.3972,12.3682,12.5614,12.3875,12.7547,12.745,12.3488,12.745,12.3682,12.5614,12.4455,12.6097,12.3682,11.9237,11.8367,11.4142,11.0721,11.1894,10.7497,10.7887,11.0428,10.7497,10.6031,10.9451,11.1601,10.9353,10.7985,10.7985,11.0331,10.6422,10.994,11.2383,11.3653,11.5217,11.5217,11.1112,10.8278,10.5933,10.6226,10.7399,10.4174,10.712,11.0378,10.5442,10.8009,11.4525,11.4426,11.7487,11.4525,11.7092,12.0942,12.3904,12.3904,11.9955,12.0942,11.7191,12.1238,12.1337,12.2917,12.2423,11.7783,11.4229,11.0576,10.712,10.3665,10.5244,10.1986,10.16,9.38,9.32,8.9,8.93,8.25,8.42,8.2,7.92,7.19,7.7,8.02,8.06,8.19,8.55,8.52,8.9,8.75,8.15,8.42,8.33,8.42,7.97],"consensus":[15.2596,18.8101,63.5499,45.5395,-13.3949,45.1249,45.7359,58.6995,37.9712,48.3775,14.1034,43.7622,46.1983,57.5472,14.2452,18.3677,44.3442,0.0,51.1382,23.2467,-24.7012,45.705,-27.7682,22.342,0.0,18.1032,-22.4123,-39.6268,-34.4462,-60.4459,-64.2416,-20.6846,-70.1367,-29.3113,0.0,-47.7567,-39.1227,9.472,10.7481,-21.377,-16.3363,-13.2033,12.2879,-48.3946,26.1342,33.846,20.4507,29.9134,23.0662,-24.687,-41.2321,-48.4822,-18.7252,0.0,-51.6618,11.5384,40.2609,-40.2142,28.938,58.7689,32.1899,54.5777,0.0,42.6691,54.7503,54.0155,34.7244,0.0,22.3312,-30.3298,24.1482,18.7833,26.9606,19.3829,-33.1739,-42.6741,-54.7557,-57.6568,-55.3398,-21.0137,-57.4848,-34.5675,-77.7265,-40.0337,-68.1963,-43.942,-79.1618,-24.059,-53.025,-59.1309,-81.034,0.0,0.0,-14.1246,-11.6808,23.0834,15.1709,47.8873,11.6366,-47.91,11.182,-17.9937,0.0,-47.5001],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-11.0256,0.0,-49.2852,11.6073,36.7481,-41.2249,24.3175,51.8938,34.6479,57.4354,0.0,47.1208,52.5737,51.372,29.0515,0.0,24.5994,-28.0055,34.5753,20.1986,30.2179,14.5628,-34.0183,-36.2116,-58.1344,-59.3921,-50.7991,-11.1522,-56.8251,-29.9119,-77.9776,-30.1851,-67.625,-42.9402,-83.9806,-12.6403,-49.6874,-53.9063,-82.8145,0.0,0.0,-17.4723,-30.8966,17.7928,12.508,53.9534,1.7755,-51.3589,13.8616,-15.0851,0.0,-53.506],"force":[-0.0358,0.0,-72.095,36.3068,70.2504,-60.3794,62.0573,87.1842,16.1701,49.1449,0.0,38.0575,56.7308,51.0301,9.3698,0.0,15.3202,-56.9473,24.0363,10.2128,17.4976,7.5704,-51.3032,-55.7228,-51.6188,-52.7304,-51.8434,-13.6665,-53.8104,-11.611,-92.4505,-17.8166,-66.845,-11.896,-82.355,-17.3209,-41.63,-55.5248,-92.4692,0.0,0.0,-6.2645,-4.9676,34.6997,15.666,43.982,2.6025,-69.5101,27.9551,-19.7166,0.0,-68.4117],"direction":[-40.9254,0.0,-39.7827,6.2321,22.8546,-24.6555,10.5618,46.3294,40.8233,55.1922,0.0,40.8755,55.8233,59.1691,59.3183,0.0,24.7467,-13.9736,12.3114,23.2877,29.9971,33.3291,-19.2593,-40.7393,-53.1351,-59.1925,-63.0265,-57.0554,-60.8634,-56.2856,-66.9223,-67.1586,-69.8145,-67.9768,-71.3737,-66.6661,-64.9787,-67.6777,-70.8313,0.0,0.0,-24.8622,-1.6117,20.8325,17.8605,43.7442,33.0773,-28.5399,3.8613,-20.0871,0.0,-25.6992],"intensity":[23.0769,5.7692,46.1538,42.3077,51.9231,92.3077,34.6154,98.0769,80.7692,42.3077,40.3846,28.8462,94.2308,84.6154,1.9231,67.3077,26.9231,57.6923,71.1538,17.3077,73.0769,13.4615,82.6923,94.2308,53.8462,73.0769,94.2308,13.4615,44.2308,21.1538,98.0769,96.1538,73.0769,3.8462,94.2308,59.6154,23.0769,32.6923,94.2308,82.6923,75.0,65.3846,26.9231,50.0,7.6923,65.3846,30.7692,90.3846,26.9231,5.7692,15.3846,73.0769],"confirmation":[50.8786,6.8939,85.1907,51.1089,81.851,81.4677,78.3399,87.7768,77.7751,85.2557,6.7521,81.4457,85.6136,85.2343,78.4256,32.0586,74.8977,78.5522,75.5651,73.7279,76.2894,51.2493,79.1553,82.1519,85.3747,86.2736,85.6714,31.3999,86.2932,78.4329,93.3174,80.2838,89.7903,81.1001,93.3557,32.9736,84.6716,86.8916,94.2523,13.0556,9.9339,50.5172,26.6641,75.8213,72.9103,83.1125,26.6619,83.9369,50.2057,73.8548,26.0918,44.64],"persistence":[0.0,12.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,50.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,87.5,87.5,75.0,75.0,50.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,25.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,12.5,25.0,25.0,37.5,12.5],"assessmentRisk":[40.582,46.2446,20.3398,15.6049,26.284,10.9335,29.99,19.5764,26.4102,22.6395,44.5326,12.2931,21.1071,21.326,32.3702,37.1004,11.1656,32.9797,46.8586,11.5894,17.9897,38.3415,24.8874,27.8453,22.5948,21.1697,22.328,39.3549,21.0907,31.2643,10.9752,29.9736,15.8978,28.025,10.4029,37.7963,22.7925,20.3604,9.3792,45.5611,21.868,24.3715,55.2162,37.4452,36.0846,24.9632,39.383,16.0285,18.8156,36.7967,38.5567,2.1251],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-47.5,"control":-53.5,"force":-68.4,"direction":-25.7,"confirmation":44.6,"persistence":12.5,"assessmentRisk":2.1,"intensity":73.1,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Price structure has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the price-technical view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics disagree. The completed evidence gives the downward price structure stronger support.","take":"Current assessment: price structure remains primary, but the disagreement lowers confirmation.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Price structure","direction":"downward","disagreement":true},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Broadly stable","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-47.5","detail":"Price structure has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-53.5","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-68.4","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction 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