{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"PEEL Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"aa906b08-b71f-4b9a-b3c8-c192fd3e85a1","symbol":"PEEL","name":"Peel Hunt Limited","exchange":"LSE","country":"GB","asset_type":"equity","currency":"GBP","sector":"Financial Services","industry":"Capital Markets"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":16,"completedEpisodes":14,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":9.0,"averageExpectedMove":13.6,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.5,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":14,"expectedCount":6,"expectedPercent":42.9,"averageReturn":2.1,"medianReturn":-0.4,"confidenceLow":21.4,"confidenceHigh":67.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":14,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":3.3,"medianReturn":1.2,"confidenceLow":26.8,"confidenceHigh":73.2,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":13,"expectedCount":6,"expectedPercent":46.2,"averageReturn":2.8,"medianReturn":-1.4,"confidenceLow":23.2,"confidenceHigh":70.9,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":15},{"week":2,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":15},{"week":3,"averageReturn":1.0,"sample":15},{"week":4,"averageReturn":2.1,"sample":14},{"week":5,"averageReturn":3.0,"sample":14},{"week":6,"averageReturn":3.9,"sample":14},{"week":7,"averageReturn":2.6,"sample":14},{"week":8,"averageReturn":3.9,"sample":14},{"week":9,"averageReturn":4.2,"sample":14},{"week":10,"averageReturn":3.7,"sample":14},{"week":11,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":14},{"week":12,"averageReturn":3.3,"sample":14},{"week":13,"averageReturn":4.7,"sample":14},{"week":14,"averageReturn":4.3,"sample":14},{"week":15,"averageReturn":4.0,"sample":14},{"week":16,"averageReturn":3.3,"sample":14},{"week":17,"averageReturn":4.0,"sample":14},{"week":18,"averageReturn":2.7,"sample":14},{"week":19,"averageReturn":1.4,"sample":14},{"week":20,"averageReturn":2.8,"sample":14},{"week":21,"averageReturn":2.6,"sample":14},{"week":22,"averageReturn":2.2,"sample":14},{"week":23,"averageReturn":1.3,"sample":14},{"week":24,"averageReturn":2.4,"sample":13},{"week":25,"averageReturn":3.4,"sample":13},{"week":26,"averageReturn":2.8,"sample":13}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":19.3,"averageExpectedMove":19.3,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":12.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-4.8,"medianReturn":-4.8,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-19.3,"medianReturn":-19.3,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-35.6,"medianReturn":-35.6,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":0.0,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-4.8,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-4.8,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-6.7,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-9.6,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-15.2,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-15.2,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-15.9,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-16.3,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-19.3,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-19.3,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-19.6,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-21.1,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-24.4,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-25.6,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-24.1,"sample":1},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-21.9,"sample":1},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-26.7,"sample":1},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-30.4,"sample":1},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-32.2,"sample":1},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-32.2,"sample":1},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-32.2,"sample":1},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-31.1,"sample":1},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-35.6,"sample":1}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"caution","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":50.0,"averageReturn":3.3,"sample":14},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 50.0% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of 3.3% across 14 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 66.7% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 3 cases. Distinct visits lasted 5.7 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 13.6% across 14 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.5 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-06-06","price":0.8008}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2024-09-20","price":1.225033}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2024-08-23","price":1.287}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[1.287,1.2822,1.287,1.2822,1.225,1.225,1.2012,1.1631,1.0916,1.0916,1.082,1.0773,1.0391,1.0391,1.0344,1.0153,0.9724,0.9581,0.9772,1.0058,0.9438,0.8961,0.8723,0.8723,0.8723,0.8866,0.8294,0.796,0.7674,0.7245,0.7674,0.7484,0.7341,0.715,0.7007,0.6864,0.7007,0.7007,0.7007,0.777,0.7674,0.8008,0.8342,0.8532,0.8866,0.9343,0.8818,0.8723,0.8961,0.939,0.9247,0.92,0.9009,0.8866,1.0487,0.9867,1.0058,1.0058,1.0153,1.0248,0.9962,1.0058,1.0296,1.0153,1.0153,1.001,1.001,1.0105,0.9819,0.9486,0.9772,1.0391,1.0296,1.0296,0.9915,1.1059,1.1106,1.1583,1.1917,1.1535,1.1011,1.001,0.9676,0.9962,1.001,0.9962,1.001,0.9581,0.9533,0.939,0.9152,0.9247,0.9295,0.9247,0.92,0.9533,1.005,0.99,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.965,0.94],"consensus":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-47.371,-23.6946,-45.6944,-55.1509,-73.5566,-35.581,-43.8277,-31.8421,-65.2558,-24.919,-31.985,-51.0508,-65.7535,-57.2952,-20.3124,0.0,-59.2189,-65.1042,-48.906,-37.6273,-39.1447,-11.3942,-61.9076,-62.8522,-57.0754,-69.2975,0.0,-48.8136,-40.6261,-34.2128,-44.6721,-54.04,-9.4999,-24.9073,-26.0804,51.5258,0.0,49.0995,54.2863,49.5915,70.2571,74.3202,0.0,20.5929,38.4255,58.1494,22.2639,25.6343,0.0,-20.907,72.0961,0.0,44.3053,32.3568,20.2897,25.9549,0.0,21.8312,35.7198,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-26.8251,-33.9718,8.7182,46.8258,9.901,23.0645,-20.2328,65.2185,33.9336,68.6068,63.709,10.4091,-20.2966,-64.1318,-59.4607,-10.0763,-24.0222,-18.2242,0.0,-48.7441,-29.0176,-35.999,-45.775,-18.6214,-16.0924,-13.3653,-15.9812,0.0,43.589,12.5485,-11.122,0.0,10.8573,0.0,0.0,-28.2276],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[0.0,-17.9696,62.8173,0.0,41.0683,26.382,24.683,17.0862,0.0,25.0733,33.2161,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-27.6429,-30.3831,19.8485,50.0991,5.1952,19.7722,-28.6532,61.1123,29.7932,67.7132,68.5268,0.3575,-23.4893,-58.2624,-54.1014,-1.1196,-16.9528,-19.7392,0.0,-51.0677,-25.5538,-33.2503,-43.909,-13.4191,-11.293,-8.3715,-18.4998,0.0,51.4321,5.7793,-20.6608,0.0,15.3225,0.0,0.0,-30.0919],"force":[0.0,-50.766,95.4681,0.0,33.3444,11.0184,7.115,14.7269,0.0,18.2329,46.8594,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-37.0233,-35.8134,25.6872,66.4725,9.2738,16.2151,-31.3795,94.4906,18.3581,84.5438,58.3567,24.3839,-57.154,-96.271,-74.0348,-27.7278,-10.1358,-5.6279,0.0,-51.8959,-11.2537,-22.4409,-35.4711,-6.8676,-4.3836,-1.6489,-1.6673,0.0,41.594,0.7383,-12.1334,0.0,28.9369,0.0,0.0,-41.87],"direction":[0.0,-2.9362,66.006,0.0,55.834,54.4269,24.6792,44.1104,0.0,20.6962,30.6242,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-18.6058,-36.7577,16.1227,29.0516,28.9753,31.7196,-2.6475,49.0028,49.7909,58.2444,62.026,47.566,-9.6789,-47.8832,-55.1756,-47.3154,-42.0204,-25.4902,0.0,-43.8372,-45.6646,-48.8248,-55.2675,-42.7732,-36.203,-29.7969,-23.3271,0.0,36.0504,28.7205,-0.5019,0.0,7.1599,0.0,0.0,-16.3525],"intensity":[23.0769,15.3846,100.0,98.0769,51.9231,30.7692,53.8462,21.1538,51.9231,40.3846,63.4615,13.4615,30.7692,76.9231,59.6154,59.6154,32.6923,92.3077,57.6923,92.3077,80.7692,38.4615,61.5385,98.0769,94.2308,76.9231,57.6923,63.4615,84.6154,94.2308,92.3077,32.6923,53.8462,42.3077,1.9231,65.3846,44.2308,13.4615,19.2308,1.9231,3.8462,90.3846,90.3846,69.2308,73.0769,13.4615,63.4615,1.9231,65.3846,7.6923,9.6154,28.8462],"confirmation":[5.3149,52.9783,91.9244,34.5694,81.893,77.7949,51.3576,76.0985,29.2405,74.8269,79.808,3.9481,25.782,24.3171,1.4216,0.9536,76.8824,78.9818,29.2436,83.5331,4.6341,75.2221,52.0192,89.8246,78.4472,90.4535,88.1503,7.7128,32.301,89.5911,87.5533,8.124,75.3716,50.7581,3.5124,83.6588,76.797,79.1484,82.3624,52.0597,50.8672,49.5805,49.9727,1.8223,81.7682,26.4254,48.8849,24.4391,50.8181,0.9807,48.4686,44.64],"persistence":[75.0,50.0,62.5,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,50.0,37.5,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,12.5,25.0,12.5,25.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,62.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,100.0,87.5,62.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,0.0,12.5,25.0,12.5],"assessmentRisk":[7.4682,36.9305,13.2566,41.6921,25.8116,32.6397,38.1575,19.1986,6.0357,10.9156,3.895,9.2581,15.4462,4.03,25.7453,11.6365,35.0575,32.791,46.554,16.8101,42.6245,38.3367,34.6881,13.8313,31.3169,15.4988,18.1397,34.8307,0.0552,17.6377,20.2445,44.6655,36.0215,4.4693,29.552,7.1006,27.5379,27.0765,26.4308,29.5174,23.269,14.9453,20.8196,45.4231,28.0803,43.3894,47.1118,3.7161,50.8074,35.1101,31.2918,6.4946],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-28.2,"control":-30.1,"force":-41.9,"direction":-16.4,"confirmation":44.6,"persistence":12.5,"assessmentRisk":6.5,"intensity":28.8,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Price structure has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the price-technical view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics disagree. The completed evidence gives the downward price structure stronger support.","take":"Current assessment: price structure remains primary, but the disagreement lowers confirmation.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Price structure","direction":"downward","disagreement":true},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-28.2","detail":"Price structure has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-30.1","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-41.9","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction 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