{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"OGN Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"afefb48b-96f0-4909-b412-f6b29c5f5652","symbol":"OGN","name":"Organon & Co","exchange":"NYSE","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Healthcare","industry":"Drug Manufacturers - General"},"summary":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. The upward price structure remains intact, but its underlying support has weakened.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Range position and boundary pressure, Directional strength and control."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. The upward price structure remains intact, but its underlying support has weakened.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Confirmation weakening","headline":"Upward price structure remains intact, but support is fading","summary":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. The upward price structure remains intact, but its underlying support has weakened.","take":"Treat the advance as conditional. Renewed Market Dynamics would restore confirmation; continued contraction would increase rollover 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":18,"completedEpisodes":17,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":12.4,"averageExpectedMove":16.3,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":5.5,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":17,"expectedCount":8,"expectedPercent":47.1,"averageReturn":-3.1,"medianReturn":-0.5,"confidenceLow":26.2,"confidenceHigh":69.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":17,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":41.2,"averageReturn":-5.0,"medianReturn":-5.9,"confidenceLow":21.6,"confidenceHigh":64.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":17,"expectedCount":4,"expectedPercent":23.5,"averageReturn":-5.7,"medianReturn":-12.0,"confidenceLow":9.6,"confidenceHigh":47.3,"confidence":"Historically adverse"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.0,"sample":18},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":18},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-2.5,"sample":17},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-3.1,"sample":17},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-3.4,"sample":17},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-3.4,"sample":17},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-3.6,"sample":17},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-4.3,"sample":17},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-4.4,"sample":17},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-5.3,"sample":17},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-3.2,"sample":17},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-5.0,"sample":17},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-7.5,"sample":17},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-5.3,"sample":17},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-5.9,"sample":17},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-5.9,"sample":17},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-5.3,"sample":17},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-5.5,"sample":17},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-6.2,"sample":17},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-4.7,"sample":17},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-6.1,"sample":17},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-5.7,"sample":17},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-5.5,"sample":17},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-5.2,"sample":17},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-6.1,"sample":17},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-5.7,"sample":17}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":31.6,"averageExpectedMove":31.6,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":12.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-12.8,"medianReturn":-12.8,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-31.6,"medianReturn":-31.6,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-29.5,"medianReturn":-29.5,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.0,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-8.4,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-8.5,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-12.8,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-14.2,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-18.2,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-19.5,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-21.2,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-23.3,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-19.2,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-28.3,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-31.6,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-30.4,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-27.7,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-31.2,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-30.3,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-33.6,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-31.4,"sample":1},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-29.7,"sample":1},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-27.8,"sample":1},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-28.3,"sample":1},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-27.3,"sample":1},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-29.2,"sample":1},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-33.4,"sample":1},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-30.4,"sample":1},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-29.5,"sample":1}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Confirmation weakening","tone":"caution","headline":"Market Dynamics remains positive but has weakened over four weeks","use":"The upward structure still has positive support, but renewed strength is needed to restore full confirmation.","confirm":"Treat the advance as conditional. Renewed Market Dynamics would restore confirmation; continued contraction would increase rollover risk.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics remains above zero, but support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price confirmation now carries more weight.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"sample":0},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price structure is upward","detail":"Price is responding in the same broad direction as Market Dynamics."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 3 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.3 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 16.3% across 17 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 5.5 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-04-17","price":9.745378}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2024-09-06","price":19.540613}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2024-08-23","price":21.323968}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[21.324,21.3144,19.5406,19.5215,18.5869,18.2913,17.4425,17.166,16.7941,16.3649,17.2327,15.2968,14.5912,14.8339,15.4067,14.6786,14.8533,14.1543,14.6203,14.9892,15.3873,15.2805,15.5038,15.1057,14.1932,14.8339,15.0378,14.7435,15.2675,15.139,15.2181,14.3479,12.9042,11.0551,10.9958,12.0637,9.4829,8.6127,8.9596,8.6127,9.138,9.4749,9.9507,9.6632,9.7723,9.8714,9.8515,9.3758,10.1191,9.6632,9.138,9.3758,9.3659,9.356,10.3094,10.5776,10.3789,10.1406,10.9351,9.5347,9.2169,9.0977,6.7041,6.7339,7.4788,7.1711,7.6791,7.1113,7.1412,6.8026,7.1512,7.2109,8.0177,8.7248,9.7208,8.5057,8.1771,7.3603,8.0675,7.2791,6.5502,6.3405,6.021,5.8313,6.3505,8.8168,9.7454,11.2431,13.2701,13.33,13.4,13.43,13.34,13.36,13.44,13.43,13.5,13.55,13.5003,13.5003,13.5003,13.5303,13.5802,13.72],"consensus":[55.1394,21.1775,-30.1437,0.0,-53.6293,-39.1335,-60.5702,-42.2071,-49.8287,-55.1771,0.0,-72.8149,-64.284,-21.2327,-18.6891,-55.6299,-15.8363,-58.346,0.0,0.0,13.067,0.0,12.0193,-23.5874,-52.9754,0.0,0.0,-22.9022,27.7055,0.0,0.0,-38.7991,-65.6422,-75.7846,-42.9281,0.0,-73.3744,-60.7587,-20.2551,-44.2605,-15.8536,0.0,0.0,-20.9196,0.0,0.0,-10.3424,-35.2082,28.1235,-24.5004,-33.9334,0.0,-12.7363,0.0,47.0036,39.6729,8.3911,0.0,46.9973,-47.492,-35.9718,-23.1501,-67.7118,-28.2419,0.0,-49.0813,10.8601,-40.4737,-22.3643,-44.3039,0.0,-8.657,42.4159,59.5929,69.853,-11.8149,-8.003,-41.1149,15.9401,-44.743,-55.006,-42.0001,-54.1463,-48.309,0.0,67.0622,73.1521,75.4472,69.8437,45.8618,55.693,41.1765,19.6726,26.2405,36.4956,28.933,38.4129,34.148,25.8253,32.2929,19.9905,27.444,33.5282,46.0058],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-10.174,0.0,44.5816,38.6783,1.9931,0.0,45.6068,-48.3994,-38.3512,-19.1742,-65.2921,-17.4896,0.0,-49.0258,7.3839,-54.6942,-23.9674,-51.3175,0.0,-12.0696,33.2505,55.949,66.5801,-26.4314,-14.1892,-35.45,30.1149,-45.0091,-62.7556,-46.6401,-60.6816,-52.1303,0.0,57.9362,71.5853,70.9702,61.726,38.3588,56.7165,30.9715,9.742,21.5301,40.1847,29.792,43.2048,36.3695,28.6088,40.6893,21.7014,37.0192,45.8089,59.4796],"force":[-5.7858,0.0,64.5493,36.0998,13.521,0.0,55.6062,-77.8817,-36.6672,-14.1036,-82.242,-0.4658,0.0,-41.8171,45.247,-40.2211,-1.9275,-40.6808,0.0,-6.7563,79.3297,79.1996,85.165,-53.9332,-22.3793,-59.6786,35.9662,-58.8192,-52.4882,-26.604,-43.1572,-33.2156,0.0,98.4903,90.2757,92.1585,75.4256,14.8273,24.193,8.5678,16.2928,5.8846,6.9624,2.2082,11.4117,7.1014,3.6779,6.9447,3.6247,6.9112,15.209,35.922],"direction":[-20.6293,0.0,37.239,43.3618,35.9102,0.0,42.4372,-24.748,-32.7558,-34.1556,-60.0984,-61.0357,0.0,-54.3334,9.7292,-24.4022,-35.1298,-38.8765,0.0,-15.7664,26.5237,49.7525,62.6562,-34.9741,-9.3358,-34.3292,14.5639,-34.3845,-47.9477,-47.6945,-54.5268,-54.7229,0.0,55.0434,62.7116,68.627,75.1339,76.6041,77.0234,76.1313,56.7116,54.5702,53.3746,50.195,52.2229,50.9282,43.7178,40.8028,34.9032,31.1671,32.5782,37.81],"intensity":[7.6923,5.7692,67.3077,61.5385,11.5385,11.5385,65.3846,84.6154,80.7692,34.6154,98.0769,63.4615,73.0769,23.0769,42.3077,48.0769,23.0769,26.9231,32.6923,9.6154,75.0,63.4615,78.8462,80.7692,78.8462,90.3846,53.8462,61.5385,69.2308,46.1538,21.1538,17.3077,44.2308,94.2308,92.3077,90.3846,100.0,1.9231,1.9231,5.7692,3.8462,1.9231,7.6923,1.9231,7.6923,13.4615,5.7692,7.6923,9.6154,1.9231,13.4615,28.8462],"confirmation":[49.2362,25.2378,83.6128,80.6016,5.4853,28.1298,83.3227,84.1098,79.4959,75.1929,90.1475,53.7591,11.7406,83.4855,6.6517,80.7272,51.8426,81.96,29.9307,49.0232,82.8377,87.7228,90.8695,34.9695,27.5631,81.8088,31.2688,82.7427,85.4071,80.9001,84.8923,82.9407,31.5002,90.5568,91.9544,92.7206,90.6438,81.8443,84.8462,80.3382,31.4929,54.0784,56.0557,54.1008,79.3962,55.4026,53.4405,54.7666,51.7578,53.3437,77.9836,90.2092],"persistence":[50.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,12.5,37.5,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,37.5,50.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,50.0,50.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,87.5,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0],"assessmentRisk":[41.5371,33.5646,26.0192,29.8036,44.9829,47.1035,19.7838,22.9274,29.8266,35.8913,16.1399,35.7543,45.8404,24.2926,34.6005,41.4301,8.1985,1.202,27.1716,10.5623,19.3815,19.3855,14.8433,54.4921,16.5287,28.0642,57.3101,24.946,21.5844,23.9514,22.6517,24.4077,16.3136,15.9094,13.378,12.2741,15.078,27.0523,22.0938,28.2289,6.1221,11.4274,15.952,14.4665,9.7452,6.051,8.3144,10.6628,9.9655,33.185,29.9069,26.9577],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":46.0,"control":59.5,"force":35.9,"direction":37.8,"confirmation":90.2,"persistence":100.0,"assessmentRisk":27.0,"intensity":28.8,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint upward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the upward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same upward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has broad support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Established","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+46.0","detail":"Joint upward confirmation","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+59.5","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+35.9","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+37.8","detail":"Upward 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