{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"DEFE Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-21","ticker":{"uuid":"b2a452a1-8125-489d-8769-9eef8257c15f","symbol":"DEFE","name":"Amundi Stoxx Europe Defense UCITS ETFAcc","exchange":"LSE","country":"GB","asset_type":"etf","currency":"GBP","sector":null,"industry":null},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price has not yet responded to the same extent.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Range pressure and compression, Range position and boundary pressure, Drawdown and recovery pressure."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-21","observations":57,"displayedObservations":57,"assetType":"ETF","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":4.8,"averageExpectedMove":4.8,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":4.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":4.8,"medianReturn":4.8,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":0,"expectedPercent":0.0,"averageReturn":-4.8,"medianReturn":-4.8,"confidenceLow":0.0,"confidenceHigh":79.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":1,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-5.4,"sample":1},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"positive","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":0.0,"averageReturn":-4.8,"sample":1},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 0.0% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of -4.8% across 1 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 4.8% across 1 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 4.0 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"reversal_warnings":[{"date":"2026-08-14","price":5.657}],"reversal_dangers":[{"date":"2026-08-21","price":5.35}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"close":[4.894,4.8552,4.8018,4.864,4.833,4.8712,4.8628,5.1525,5.1775,5.391,5.5445,5.314,4.9745,5.9767,5.218,5.12,5.1125,4.7592,4.7348,4.7648,4.8807,4.9535,4.9073,5.068,5.662,5.6975,5.584,5.401,5.258,5.386,5.705,5.5485,5.2755,5.3975,5.1205,4.8373,5.31,5.229,5.367,4.7965,4.8792,4.7668,4.5155,4.8332,5.1025,4.8407,4.873,4.9878,4.748,5.1855,4.891,4.8487,5.035,5.221,5.5185,5.657,5.35],"consensus":[-100.0,-19.8083,-77.5414,34.8,0.0,0.0,0.0,36.3298,17.7577,46.591,45.2363,0.0,-38.2487,69.7737,-25.4808,-19.7974,-13.6407,-56.1868,-20.77,0.0,0.0,14.6663,-16.0609,30.1007,69.7351,37.8598,9.3016,-11.722,-25.4229,21.3214,59.8285,0.0,-38.4775,18.9789,-54.7756,-66.1353,36.2349,-20.4286,27.8324,-59.7694,-9.9542,-47.5611,-69.0439,22.4341,36.4491,-22.9965,0.0,0.0,-24.814,40.467,-21.2873,0.0,36.279,38.5339,59.2889,55.4218,7.1785],"supportDates":["2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"control":[0.0,0.0,41.6833,10.4086,50.1367,41.8863,0.0,-39.819,65.599,-18.8815,-18.6878,-26.1947,-54.6739,-12.1617,0.0,0.0,18.0177,-31.365,35.4527,68.0479,33.3839,1.9394,-18.8068,-15.0826,32.786,63.1081,0.0,-41.6349,15.301,-46.997,-63.9757,39.2531,-14.7784,26.3427,-63.4183,-4.5797,-43.1256,-69.7664,24.8765,36.9233,-33.1723,0.0,0.0,-16.9931,45.1204,-30.6715,0.0,34.9575,37.04,58.514,58.866,24.8197],"force":[0.0,0.0,36.7326,9.0049,38.5741,34.641,0.0,-58.1642,82.4612,-50.8826,-24.9646,-11.7953,-74.5426,-5.4048,0.0,0.0,27.7146,-11.3156,38.1943,94.3997,20.1394,35.7071,-61.2519,-57.3343,35.3954,83.5812,0.0,-78.6857,44.2749,-88.4242,-86.057,77.003,-37.117,41.0531,-87.7414,-16.9633,-51.5783,-80.7633,76.1856,62.3863,-20.7744,0.0,0.0,-19.3072,39.0122,-27.0474,0.0,55.8807,57.7999,64.3799,42.0657,43.0726],"direction":[0.0,0.0,29.9237,32.4088,48.2652,56.633,0.0,-22.2288,65.4823,-14.8785,-17.3747,-0.6113,-44.8046,-41.5831,0.0,0.0,1.5159,-1.9599,18.2031,54.0456,55.6324,49.8645,-31.7533,-14.4466,1.8338,39.1142,0.0,-6.149,5.1138,-39.6307,-54.3736,3.6655,-14.9656,20.0914,-35.6192,-45.791,-49.7609,-59.8472,18.7512,17.3806,-12.954,0.0,0.0,-37.6856,36.188,-6.4482,0.0,23.7881,26.4798,56.5379,61.0256,38.6216],"intensity":[80.0,33.3333,85.7143,75.0,66.6667,70.0,63.6364,91.6667,100.0,85.7143,33.3333,25.0,82.3529,83.3333,21.0526,50.0,28.5714,40.9091,43.4783,87.5,84.0,38.4615,48.1481,60.7143,37.931,73.3333,38.7097,68.75,33.3333,70.5882,85.7143,86.1111,78.3784,34.2105,89.7436,82.5,63.4146,76.1905,65.1163,81.8182,55.5556,15.2174,31.9149,64.5833,85.7143,62.0,31.3725,40.3846,55.7692,65.3846,34.6154,67.3077],"confirmation":[0.9701,25.1794,79.5562,73.5277,82.6108,82.2038,30.9572,80.8226,90.7779,77.0286,74.5096,49.4508,86.5622,51.6426,5.8047,3.5137,50.3731,50.095,77.7973,91.0926,79.6433,9.3345,34.5933,77.2654,52.8016,87.819,9.4802,58.8234,52.2336,86.6722,89.8033,58.125,75.1318,77.332,87.9231,7.1823,83.4096,90.4402,35.4468,80.447,75.1361,25.1776,2.4064,75.8918,80.8342,52.1778,26.511,80.2268,80.9408,87.1394,85.2754,42.0281],"persistence":[33.3333,28.5714,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,50.0,37.5,50.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,62.5,50.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,37.5,25.0,25.0,50.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,37.5,25.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,37.5,50.0],"assessmentRisk":[15.2177,48.1206,31.3035,40.9949,26.695,27.3814,44.9934,22.8565,12.8863,21.911,13.4456,24.084,21.6937,31.6148,31.95,23.5087,15.7413,29.1228,17.8812,12.9007,28.7111,44.3783,51.7579,35.0674,55.3905,2.8531,33.3075,23.1005,6.9507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upward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the upward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same upward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has broad support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Present","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+7.2","detail":"Joint upward confirmation","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+24.8","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+43.1","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+38.6","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"42/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"53.8","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"5.7%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"13.1","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"72%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend references are aligned upward.","series":[{"label":"Close","values":[4.894,4.8552,4.8018,4.864,4.833,4.8712,4.8628,5.1525,5.1775,5.391,5.5445,5.314,4.9745,5.9767,5.218,5.12,5.1125,4.7592,4.7348,4.7648,4.8807,4.9535,4.9073,5.068,5.662,5.6975,5.584,5.401,5.258,5.386,5.705,5.5485,5.2755,5.3975,5.1205,4.8373,5.31,5.229,5.367,4.7965,4.8792,4.7668,4.5155,4.8332,5.1025,4.8407,4.873,4.9878,4.748,5.1855,4.891,4.8487,5.035,5.221,5.5185,5.657,5.35],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.1},{"label":"Fast trend","values":[null,null,null,null,4.8634,4.8648,4.8644,4.9168,4.9642,5.0418,5.1332,5.1661,5.1312,5.285,5.2728,5.245,5.2209,5.137,5.0638,5.0095,4.9861,4.9801,4.9669,4.9853,5.1083,5.2154,5.2824,5.304,5.2956,5.3121,5.3835,5.4135,5.3884,5.3901,5.3411,5.2495,5.2605,5.2547,5.2752,5.1881,5.132,5.0656,4.9656,4.9415,4.9708,4.9471,4.9337,4.9435,4.9079,4.9584,4.9462,4.9284,4.9478,4.9975,5.0922,5.1949,5.2231],"stroke":"#176fa3","width":1.7},{"label":"Slow 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pressure and cumulative balance","description":"Observed activity is compared with its normal backdrop while cumulative balance tracks directional participation.","reason":"Selected because participation is confirming or diverging from the latest price path.","series":[{"label":"Activity versus norm","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,31.8746,339.7738,30.0709,108.0882,60.3061,93.79,73.3358,65.907,123.0909,30.7879,121.8065,80.6125,76.0352,32.8938,47.7028,0.2702,5.4762,346.5466,167.9426,526.0084,162.3009,172.0949,125.647,395.4877,451.3198,243.9543,194.3279,134.845,189.065,88.8185,217.9862,99.4533,192.3624,65.679,161.5906,157.1864,158.7081,128.0122,10.4032,22.1551,3.4849,17.8189,13.9814,4.0863,20.4052,97.7408,190.6759,90.5162,49.5058,40.9468],"stroke":"#1678a7","width":1.8},{"label":"Cumulative 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impulse","title":"Acceleration, deceleration and rollover","description":"The impulse path separates directional acceleration from a loss of momentum.","reason":"Selected because the latest impulse is unusually active or is approaching a change of direction.","series":[{"label":"Impulse","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.0913,0.1538,0.1405,0.1206,0.1031,0.06,0.0236,-0.0028,-0.0142,-0.0172,-0.023,-0.0144,0.0398,0.0847,0.1098,0.1136,0.1039,0.1054,0.1307,0.1367,0.1179,0.1117,0.0834,0.0377,0.0392,0.0334,0.0395,-0.0016,-0.0273,-0.056,-0.0979,-0.1043,-0.0867,-0.0927,-0.0938,-0.0845,-0.0953,-0.0678,-0.069,-0.0725,-0.0596,-0.0339,0.0103,0.0559,0.0665],"stroke":"#1678a7","width":2.0},{"label":"Signal","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,0.111,0.1008,0.0854,0.0677,0.0513,0.0376,0.0255,0.0175,0.022,0.0345,0.0496,0.0624,0.0707,0.0776,0.0883,0.0979,0.1019,0.1039,0.0998,0.0874,0.0777,0.0689,0.063,0.0501,0.0346,0.0165,-0.0064,-0.026,-0.0381,-0.049,-0.058,-0.0633,-0.0697,-0.0693,-0.0693,-0.0699,-0.0678,-0.0611,-0.0468,-0.0262,-0.0077],"stroke":"#b87806","width":1.7},{"label":"Expansion","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,-0.008,-0.0408,-0.0618,-0.0705,-0.0655,-0.0548,-0.0485,-0.032,0.0178,0.0501,0.0602,0.0513,0.0332,0.0277,0.0425,0.0387,0.016,0.0078,-0.0164,-0.0497,-0.0386,-0.0355,-0.0235,-0.0517,-0.0619,-0.0725,-0.0915,-0.0783,-0.0485,-0.0437,-0.0358,-0.0212,-0.0256,0.0015,0.0003,-0.0026,0.0083,0.0271,0.0571,0.0821,0.0742],"stroke":"#07865c","width":1.0,"fill":"rgba(7,134,92,.12)"}],"guides":[{"label":"Neutral","values":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"stroke":"#8fa0af","width":1.0,"dash":[6,5]}],"dates":["2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"]},{"key":"volatility","eyebrow":"Risk 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