{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"DOTD Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"b33b1687-b6c8-439e-b0bb-b1d85f7f01b5","symbol":"DOTD","name":"dotdigital Group Plc","exchange":"LSE","country":"GB","asset_type":"equity","currency":"GBP","sector":"Technology","industry":"Software - Application"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":17,"completedEpisodes":16,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":5.0,"averageExpectedMove":8.2,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":4.8,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":17,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":41.2,"averageReturn":-2.1,"medianReturn":-1.6,"confidenceLow":21.6,"confidenceHigh":64.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":16,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":12.5,"averageReturn":-9.0,"medianReturn":-9.1,"confidenceLow":3.5,"confidenceHigh":36.0,"confidence":"Historically adverse"},{"weeks":26,"sample":16,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":18.8,"averageReturn":-11.5,"medianReturn":-6.7,"confidenceLow":6.6,"confidenceHigh":43.0,"confidence":"Historically adverse"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-2.5,"sample":17},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-2.3,"sample":17},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":17},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-2.1,"sample":17},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-4.4,"sample":17},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-3.9,"sample":17},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-3.4,"sample":17},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-4.6,"sample":17},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-5.3,"sample":16},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-6.8,"sample":16},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-6.2,"sample":16},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-9.0,"sample":16},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-8.8,"sample":16},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-7.7,"sample":16},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-7.2,"sample":16},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-9.7,"sample":16},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-10.6,"sample":16},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-12.6,"sample":16},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-13.8,"sample":16},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-12.5,"sample":16},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-11.8,"sample":16},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-10.6,"sample":16},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-11.5,"sample":16},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-11.7,"sample":16},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-12.0,"sample":16},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-11.5,"sample":16}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"caution","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":12.5,"averageReturn":-9.0,"sample":16},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 12.5% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of -9.0% across 16 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.5 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 8.2% across 16 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 4.8 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[0.9011,0.8876,0.8333,0.8595,0.8818,0.8624,0.8595,0.8575,0.8866,0.781,0.8391,0.9089,0.9205,0.9108,0.8934,0.8973,0.8459,0.843,0.843,0.8333,0.7756,0.7972,0.8002,0.8512,0.8346,0.8709,0.9003,0.7511,0.7108,0.7275,0.704,0.7069,0.646,0.65,0.6794,0.8031,0.7619,0.8385,0.8836,0.8031,0.8149,0.7992,0.756,0.7324,0.7403,0.7305,0.7462,0.756,0.7069,0.705,0.6873,0.6735,0.6853,0.6755,0.6559,0.6343,0.6932,0.6539,0.6676,0.6441,0.6284,0.6539,0.6676,0.6971,0.6657,0.6598,0.6539,0.6303,0.6421,0.6362,0.6578,0.6696,0.642,0.65,0.672,0.738,0.658,0.632,0.594,0.578,0.57,0.51,0.449,0.441,0.462,0.45,0.479,0.475,0.463,0.476,0.478,0.4905,0.5,0.4765,0.464,0.455,0.4205,0.4615,0.454,0.463,0.472,0.518,0.4975,0.516],"consensus":[-17.9446,-17.8037,-53.4245,0.0,8.6415,-22.5324,0.0,0.0,23.1104,-58.2051,16.8831,41.4207,19.6127,13.1727,0.0,0.0,-37.5644,-19.4512,-14.1008,-26.9976,-45.4721,0.0,-15.5319,25.2144,0.0,39.2621,38.2793,-57.9167,-54.2424,-20.1332,-46.1381,-22.2128,-59.4422,-22.9625,-11.8682,50.9378,-9.2923,50.7502,50.2675,-18.2236,19.7552,-8.2492,-37.3926,-37.5981,-9.9893,-19.2047,0.0,14.6146,-38.3289,-22.7777,-32.9568,-33.3685,-8.5345,-23.1309,-26.9277,-32.1557,25.2125,-32.2035,0.0,-23.8727,-29.8548,11.0526,12.8375,28.5255,-16.2394,0.0,-11.5569,-33.2861,0.0,-16.2947,14.6235,18.7734,-26.7993,0.0,28.5819,59.9762,-32.4769,-35.6697,-44.1267,-39.7453,-28.2619,-62.9653,-72.7281,-46.0469,-20.2696,-47.8508,9.4633,-18.6398,-34.1371,0.0,-9.8686,0.0,14.9644,-29.2056,-24.8398,-21.2562,-40.9282,20.9579,-22.3435,0.0,18.7659,53.4723,0.0,38.4779],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-6.3924,-23.289,-25.6131,-32.73,25.5793,-37.1263,0.0,-28.7662,-28.2252,11.7159,16.6351,19.501,-20.5006,0.0,-12.6106,-32.9582,0.0,-16.8256,18.0352,17.7228,-34.3458,0.0,28.4272,53.3103,-38.4003,-39.5663,-39.3342,-38.3521,-20.9272,-63.4269,-76.1635,-44.2559,-13.3368,-53.2777,2.2575,-27.5791,-44.9012,0.0,-12.1796,0.0,11.9911,-38.1418,-31.6952,-19.0944,-41.2206,23.2341,-30.0594,0.0,7.7644,43.0286,0.0,34.0654],"force":[-10.0594,-16.2448,-21.8134,-22.9014,61.1086,-37.8826,0.0,-29.2561,-25.7789,37.3048,26.1436,47.6684,-43.0796,0.0,-12.271,-38.4061,0.0,-14.5857,25.4522,19.4681,-43.1754,0.0,47.2391,85.2473,-72.5959,-52.3275,-55.2775,-30.4338,-14.2027,-69.6372,-79.8073,-23.4514,-23.4526,-28.4235,63.9594,-5.6037,-24.6202,0.0,-4.3852,0.0,23.1066,-39.3217,-17.5027,-9.6332,-30.0435,67.5807,-19.0553,0.0,33.6484,78.9181,0.0,38.4338],"direction":[-24.2641,-27.869,-32.0831,-38.1095,0.8467,-22.5208,0.0,-14.4348,-34.6285,8.457,1.0071,25.1657,-7.802,0.0,-9.8425,-30.0036,0.0,-16.9087,2.9897,19.4777,-6.4776,0.0,15.4322,49.5436,-2.9493,-19.3179,-41.639,-47.9887,-46.6866,-57.6722,-63.7454,-64.2333,-59.423,-55.5253,21.2275,-17.735,-28.633,0.0,-17.4087,0.0,12.5466,-11.767,-22.2458,-32.029,-48.3687,14.9455,-15.8741,0.0,20.7087,47.2324,0.0,43.5524],"intensity":[9.6154,9.6154,53.8462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Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+38.5","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+34.1","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+38.4","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+43.6","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"80/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"51.3","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"8.8%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"20.1","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"43%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility 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