{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"MSEX Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"b33e9fcc-2778-47d9-b6f0-0beb7214b60b","symbol":"MSEX","name":"Middlesex Water Company","exchange":"NASDAQ","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Utilities","industry":"Utilities - Regulated Water"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. The upward price structure remains intact, but its underlying support has weakened.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Range position and boundary pressure, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Strength versus the research benchmark, Range pressure and compression."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. The upward price structure remains intact, but its underlying support has weakened.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Confirmation weakening","headline":"Upward price structure remains intact, but support is fading","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. The upward price structure remains intact, but its underlying support has weakened.","take":"Treat the advance as conditional. Renewed Market Dynamics would restore confirmation; continued contraction would increase rollover 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":20,"completedEpisodes":18,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":6.4,"averageExpectedMove":7.4,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":5.7,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":19,"expectedCount":10,"expectedPercent":52.6,"averageReturn":-0.1,"medianReturn":2.6,"confidenceLow":31.7,"confidenceHigh":72.7,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":18,"expectedCount":6,"expectedPercent":33.3,"averageReturn":-5.2,"medianReturn":-4.4,"confidenceLow":16.3,"confidenceHigh":56.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":16,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":6.2,"averageReturn":-7.2,"medianReturn":-5.9,"confidenceLow":1.1,"confidenceHigh":28.3,"confidence":"Historically adverse"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":20},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":20},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":19},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":19},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-1.6,"sample":19},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-2.3,"sample":19},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-1.6,"sample":19},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-3.0,"sample":19},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-4.3,"sample":18},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-5.1,"sample":18},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-5.1,"sample":18},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-5.2,"sample":18},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-4.6,"sample":18},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-4.2,"sample":18},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-5.0,"sample":18},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-6.4,"sample":17},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-7.2,"sample":17},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-8.0,"sample":17},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-6.8,"sample":17},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-7.4,"sample":17},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-6.6,"sample":17},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-5.4,"sample":17},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-6.7,"sample":16},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-6.4,"sample":16},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-6.3,"sample":16},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-7.2,"sample":16}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Confirmation weakening","tone":"caution","headline":"Market Dynamics remains positive but has weakened over four weeks","use":"The upward structure still has positive support, but renewed strength is needed to restore full confirmation.","confirm":"Treat the advance as conditional. Renewed Market Dynamics would restore confirmation; continued contraction would increase rollover risk.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics remains above zero, but support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price confirmation now carries more weight.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"sample":0},"nowContext":{"label":"Slightly stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price structure is upward","detail":"Price is responding in the same broad direction as Market Dynamics."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 3.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 9.8% across 21 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 8.0 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[58.4171,60.263,59.3162,61.9367,62.2619,61.8506,60.6073,60.4638,62.7688,60.5882,62.4245,66.5561,64.3851,63.9237,62.9048,58.2619,57.118,52.6481,50.8314,49.7259,46.9767,49.0819,46.7941,48.6781,47.4958,48.5436,49.309,48.5059,62.1588,60.1945,58.0271,61.4234,61.6943,60.1268,60.63,59.4495,58.4045,58.1432,56.8639,55.6764,56.4064,54.5668,55.0729,54.6057,53.0581,54.0898,53.2138,52.7855,50.7123,50.9945,51.6272,51.8998,53.4475,52.4483,53.0655,52.8206,51.7234,52.4092,52.4777,56.0337,57.1015,59.1293,56.2982,52.4777,51.4295,49.332,50.6144,51.2062,52.3308,50.9991,50.7525,49.5885,50.9991,53.7216,51.5811,51.6698,50.5453,54.639,53.7451,53.616,53.7253,52.0274,49.8133,51.4317,53.4175,55.4529,50.9452,53.1196,50.5679,51.1934,50.27,52.11,52.53,53.37,52.945,52.06,55.48,57.55,55.01,57.44,56.19,57.3,58.22,58.73],"consensus":[9.1366,29.8801,0.0,55.629,26.681,17.2763,0.0,0.0,34.5956,-20.6554,29.9422,59.8889,0.0,16.8433,0.0,-57.2041,-41.3674,-70.9667,-59.2459,-51.9233,-69.6884,-13.5816,-60.9524,-10.4637,-40.0801,0.0,0.0,-29.6492,74.2221,17.0049,0.0,68.0438,21.1046,10.5249,28.3519,0.0,-9.1183,0.0,-14.9244,-26.9473,0.0,-38.4801,-10.6532,-16.2409,-40.7936,0.0,-25.2514,-24.3198,-53.7598,-15.3477,-8.7154,-10.9463,27.0809,-10.7331,16.5448,0.0,-28.6005,0.0,0.0,55.2746,43.6546,57.1838,0.0,-24.7658,-32.4107,-44.1824,0.0,0.0,14.1127,-24.3632,-16.6133,-34.8643,10.5442,40.1363,-23.0616,0.0,-29.5428,48.1999,0.0,10.7621,15.854,-24.2841,-52.9325,0.0,29.863,46.9373,-38.1594,29.9085,-43.0179,0.0,-30.2937,18.9141,16.656,28.0448,0.0,-13.4548,60.4832,59.0283,-11.575,55.7509,0.0,26.4493,40.2826,34.3629],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[27.5665,-16.056,17.1059,0.0,-25.5521,0.0,0.0,54.9296,39.2943,56.4589,0.0,-8.8028,-30.1058,-40.9762,0.0,0.0,14.9312,-33.7497,-23.5231,-40.2297,19.8406,38.6364,-34.3962,0.0,-35.7553,50.2265,0.0,5.1145,8.5582,-20.1733,-47.3475,0.0,38.341,44.9297,-41.6184,21.4929,-41.0878,0.0,-36.9402,26.5306,15.1971,27.3802,0.0,-15.2834,56.8537,59.6121,-15.7047,51.1652,0.0,29.7323,38.6232,38.056],"force":[46.4423,-15.9717,29.6376,0.0,-40.369,0.0,0.0,71.6916,40.1651,56.2083,0.0,-46.2122,-29.199,-43.5052,0.0,0.0,32.3184,-35.1884,-8.6451,-31.275,33.666,56.7695,-39.4162,0.0,-39.7973,70.6888,0.0,0.1284,9.1898,-40.1996,-81.8527,0.0,42.917,56.4403,-75.8708,63.4695,-65.1597,0.0,-33.1402,39.4534,18.3672,32.2488,0.0,-26.8112,90.7922,65.1899,-62.2609,70.4876,0.0,22.8416,35.8298,22.5795],"direction":[12.6963,-0.908,6.5516,0.0,-23.6783,0.0,0.0,43.9423,51.1304,58.7089,0.0,-27.6903,-37.3389,-48.3303,0.0,0.0,0.1732,-5.9035,-14.408,-31.2962,16.5957,29.9695,-1.5741,0.0,-15.1182,29.8202,0.0,24.9955,28.9522,-17.6138,-38.6579,0.0,10.8496,42.4438,-7.2694,15.5542,-29.4082,0.0,-20.6644,4.4613,17.101,25.8015,0.0,-1.8249,42.982,53.9601,-29.3489,50.4654,0.0,25.2742,45.3595,38.559],"intensity":[34.6154,15.3846,21.1538,5.7692,25.0,11.5385,11.5385,86.5385,53.8462,75.0,75.0,98.0769,96.1538,73.0769,34.6154,34.6154,30.7692,40.3846,51.9231,34.6154,44.2308,90.3846,67.3077,19.2308,32.6923,90.3846,88.4615,36.5385,3.8462,65.3846,69.2308,53.8462,65.3846,75.0,94.2308,69.2308,76.9231,69.2308,21.1538,59.6154,25.0,17.3077,26.9231,57.6923,86.5385,84.6154,73.0769,71.1538,36.5385,32.6923,13.4615,30.7692],"confirmation":[77.2485,48.8465,51.0181,1.1714,77.5573,25.0069,1.499,86.1934,81.9296,86.2801,33.6792,76.8219,78.3087,82.1666,7.0413,4.1604,50.3918,53.3164,72.9681,78.9654,30.1442,81.3734,53.3746,47.3119,77.6716,84.0784,5.9862,25.8921,72.9814,76.3186,85.9049,29.5102,77.8248,83.3401,58.6409,78.7218,82.4699,4.3063,77.6794,52.8475,73.4043,77.1126,4.0439,50.0181,88.3336,87.0679,34.1135,86.3593,6.1338,76.3038,80.78,86.5807],"persistence":[62.5,75.0,50.0,37.5,37.5,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,25.0,12.5,12.5,0.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,37.5,50.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,37.5,12.5,0.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,0.0,25.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,25.0,37.5,62.5],"assessmentRisk":[35.7789,48.9455,36.2062,34.5944,32.3543,3.2943,27.8041,21.6055,28.1434,21.4068,52.8882,35.3839,33.5372,27.9051,46.7273,27.0705,14.2573,46.4135,11.7909,16.0568,37.3439,24.5042,32.6086,38.9305,0.4934,0.6044,41.8831,35.581,39.8408,33.2014,22.2946,44.705,23.0352,23.7985,42.9545,17.4377,20.7441,44.9943,1.3181,32.2897,28.7936,25.125,41.8122,5.4314,14.179,18.6835,42.9478,21.8593,18.4294,20.8795,27.9778,16.6445],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":34.4,"control":38.1,"force":22.6,"direction":38.6,"confirmation":86.6,"persistence":62.5,"assessmentRisk":16.6,"intensity":30.8,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint upward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the upward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same upward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has broad support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+34.4","detail":"Joint upward confirmation","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+38.1","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+22.6","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+38.6","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"87/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"60.7","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"5.3%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"14.8","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"95%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend references are aligned 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