{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"AWI Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"b3df3f06-4a93-491c-bf30-9ce34295d327","symbol":"AWI","name":"Armstrong World Industries Inc","exchange":"NYSE","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Building Products & Equipment"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. The completed evidence supports the upward price structure.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Range position and boundary pressure, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Drawdown and recovery pressure."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":15,"completedEpisodes":15,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":6.9,"averageExpectedMove":9.5,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.6,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":15,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":46.7,"averageReturn":-0.4,"medianReturn":-0.2,"confidenceLow":24.8,"confidenceHigh":69.9,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":15,"expectedCount":4,"expectedPercent":26.7,"averageReturn":-1.5,"medianReturn":-5.0,"confidenceLow":10.9,"confidenceHigh":52.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":14,"expectedCount":6,"expectedPercent":42.9,"averageReturn":-0.7,"medianReturn":-3.9,"confidenceLow":21.4,"confidenceHigh":67.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":15},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.8,"sample":15},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-1.2,"sample":15},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":15},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-2.2,"sample":15},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":15},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":15},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":15},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-2.6,"sample":15},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-1.7,"sample":15},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-0.5,"sample":15},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-1.5,"sample":15},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-1.2,"sample":15},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":15},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-0.6,"sample":15},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":15},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":15},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-1.9,"sample":15},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-1.6,"sample":15},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-1.3,"sample":15},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":15},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":15},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":15},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":15},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-0.8,"sample":14},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":14}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":4,"completedEpisodes":4,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":8.8,"averageExpectedMove":9.7,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":8.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":4,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":-3.5,"medianReturn":-3.4,"confidenceLow":15.0,"confidenceHigh":85.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":4,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":-4.7,"medianReturn":-4.3,"confidenceLow":15.0,"confidenceHigh":85.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":4,"expectedCount":4,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-12.2,"medianReturn":-13.0,"confidenceLow":51.0,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Historically consistent"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.0,"sample":4},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":4},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-3.4,"sample":4},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-3.5,"sample":4},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-3.6,"sample":4},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-3.9,"sample":4},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-5.9,"sample":4},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-4.4,"sample":4},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-3.3,"sample":4},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":4},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-3.1,"sample":4},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-4.7,"sample":4},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-9.6,"sample":4},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-12.6,"sample":4},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-13.1,"sample":4},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-11.3,"sample":4},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-10.2,"sample":4},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-9.5,"sample":4},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-11.1,"sample":4},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-11.9,"sample":4},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-13.6,"sample":4},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-16.6,"sample":4},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-17.3,"sample":4},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-17.1,"sample":4},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-14.1,"sample":4},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-12.2,"sample":4}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Evidence aligned","tone":"positive","headline":"Price and Market Dynamics remain aligned upward","use":"The advance retains underlying support while price structure and Market Dynamics remain intact.","confirm":"The advance remains supported. Reclassify it only if the broader Market Dynamics path weakens or price structure breaks.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics remains positive and has strengthened across the recent completed path. A slight weekly pause does not yet change the broader constructive reading.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":46.7,"averageReturn":1.0,"sample":15},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price structure is upward","detail":"Price is responding in the same broad direction as Market Dynamics."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Trend participation","title":"Let confirmation support the position, then manage extension","tone":"positive","approach":"This is most useful for holding or selectively adding to an established upward case. Risk should still tighten as price becomes extended; confirmation is support, not immunity from reversal.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 46.7% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of 1.0% across 15 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 50.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 4 cases. Distinct visits lasted 5.4 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 9.7% across 18 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.8 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2025-11-14","price":181.913307},{"date":"2025-12-05","price":183.11836},{"date":"2026-01-30","price":182.988892}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2025-10-17","price":198.046739},{"date":"2025-11-28","price":188.964364},{"date":"2025-12-12","price":185.548386},{"date":"2026-02-06","price":197.439576}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[124.1919,125.0403,119.5557,125.3658,129.5187,129.2721,132.912,134.4114,139.1167,134.3423,138.6826,151.9209,151.5058,157.2387,157.98,155.9537,151.8715,141.2262,141.9873,140.4354,139.3976,146.959,148.4615,149.2621,149.2621,152.089,145.1898,151.8814,148.0952,138.9036,139.7158,138.2202,129.3456,133.456,132.7627,137.1802,148.5013,150.9865,158.9562,153.2692,154.4602,153.6365,150.133,151.0362,161.8939,166.4891,166.7968,164.0377,167.2732,187.103,187.1712,192.9867,196.0784,194.6171,197.2614,195.3626,195.4123,192.8376,195.6112,192.4698,198.0467,202.1226,189.3085,187.9386,181.9133,182.1623,188.9644,183.1184,185.5484,185.4488,191.4641,196.0453,199.6903,195.3183,186.5144,182.9889,197.4396,199.4613,198.1068,172.7908,167.883,166.945,163.5123,161.8259,164.6798,175.1077,179.1391,177.8917,168.1026,161.4168,155.17,157.42,157.9,155.15,154.21,157.88,162.16,158.2717,155.2172,155.6864,160.4178,174.3424,185.52,182.2],"consensus":[34.2646,25.1546,-25.027,48.6017,51.2798,22.3519,55.3445,51.3433,63.2762,0.0,52.1538,80.0258,28.5348,69.5504,32.6385,21.6666,0.0,-51.7828,-12.1659,-25.0399,-32.1561,44.0922,18.2503,28.2362,24.2835,39.4933,-37.7265,44.46,-18.7016,-56.0367,-17.7236,-40.6453,-63.7083,0.0,-30.1293,13.7823,58.199,43.9476,62.4831,0.0,23.3734,18.0253,-19.7151,10.4035,56.7033,58.1804,34.5825,18.4013,46.5754,78.3661,32.3327,66.4312,58.8855,29.7238,56.2038,22.8323,29.4433,9.1712,34.3456,-10.7012,43.0149,45.3718,-45.4028,-17.0118,-53.8426,-23.9013,19.5932,-40.6325,0.0,0.0,35.7873,48.0164,45.3299,0.0,-45.4724,-44.5748,45.9503,23.9506,17.2805,-64.536,-54.5315,-37.1474,-56.5067,-54.0774,-15.0576,32.0264,28.5901,0.0,-38.3099,-55.3898,-62.1851,-22.6181,-36.7211,-32.5932,-25.4176,0.0,20.8883,-21.7084,-24.8126,-17.4414,18.8742,56.2248,67.8692,21.2053],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[59.8372,24.3454,59.8216,23.8114,37.7478,12.0881,45.2227,-11.9808,48.4663,47.1474,-39.7949,-11.941,-50.1944,-13.4606,27.0398,-39.0682,0.0,0.0,46.085,50.6819,40.3858,0.0,-41.0169,-37.9334,52.3439,23.0355,12.2718,-56.6184,-46.9928,-28.2155,-53.2897,-59.3963,-9.8995,32.9182,27.456,0.0,-37.7575,-59.0522,-68.1209,-13.5617,-39.4021,-27.694,-28.2381,0.0,20.9832,-29.3148,-29.9677,-19.9161,22.5438,44.6299,67.3816,9.4318],"force":[41.2159,7.3345,39.1207,14.4603,4.1865,20.7715,24.7186,-43.5823,43.3675,35.9269,-90.5285,-16.7256,-65.3191,-5.912,42.2819,-52.1645,0.0,0.0,48.8075,56.5493,54.3498,0.0,-77.1765,-54.8748,79.7116,15.7998,0.8309,-92.7287,-55.2672,-14.759,-50.1899,-36.2842,-19.6221,71.8874,39.5223,0.0,-67.5135,-55.3723,-56.9317,-7.7064,-16.514,-22.0241,-6.91,0.0,45.011,-26.9104,-23.7289,-5.7075,44.454,81.937,75.8448,14.1674],"direction":[70.4191,62.3407,64.2714,48.351,37.9931,27.2252,28.791,-14.2476,36.5328,50.0889,-19.5791,-23.0114,-49.8147,-48.683,5.1233,-34.1832,0.0,0.0,14.7183,38.8753,44.5375,0.0,-27.9186,-44.8078,14.528,30.8186,34.7546,-53.447,-62.6216,-63.347,-64.6953,-60.7081,-45.7238,2.535,22.0775,0.0,-18.0816,-51.2166,-59.1537,-54.6286,-48.0908,-45.7417,-35.4139,0.0,3.5494,-9.2997,-19.6949,-22.9946,3.5911,51.1102,62.7295,59.9268],"intensity":[44.2308,7.6923,13.4615,9.6154,17.3077,13.4615,21.1538,32.6923,53.8462,44.2308,92.3077,94.2308,59.6154,51.9231,71.1538,57.6923,32.6923,5.7692,61.5385,46.1538,65.3846,42.3077,78.8462,65.3846,94.2308,86.5385,34.6154,100.0,98.0769,21.1538,25.0,9.6154,25.0,78.8462,76.9231,25.0,90.3846,84.6154,69.2308,28.8462,55.7692,69.2308,3.8462,36.5385,42.3077,40.3846,48.0769,19.2308,50.0,98.0769,92.3077,36.5385],"confirmation":[86.2904,55.3622,85.4095,31.9064,53.8589,29.0757,78.5314,30.1131,81.6924,82.2041,83.9896,73.5123,85.635,52.5926,53.2741,81.3777,49.7502,1.5362,79.6918,83.5847,82.8558,7.1739,83.5853,82.679,83.6356,75.4297,50.4381,89.6314,85.5874,79.341,85.9387,84.6815,30.6928,56.783,77.4993,25.3781,81.1576,85.6684,87.6487,53.429,79.0941,78.1824,52.8599,5.1508,52.7513,74.9893,75.8284,50.5193,52.8628,86.9522,89.9686,39.5761],"persistence":[100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,37.5,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,62.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,25.0],"assessmentRisk":[20.5505,27.258,18.5335,7.7454,20.3269,19.7196,31.349,17.6266,0.0021,23.5346,20.7634,28.5451,22.9745,38.0331,13.213,16.4078,26.253,30.1802,3.4603,25.0356,26.717,47.1827,11.9102,27.2746,40.2993,18.2487,39.3623,8.3169,22.5965,31.3583,21.7038,15.6338,10.3759,19.7471,32.4768,45.0708,36.8818,18.9579,18.6459,38.0202,29.8013,26.0269,3.2973,4.8797,23.0297,37.3589,23.9895,16.1967,28.365,21.6518,16.0635,39.3928],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":21.2,"control":9.4,"force":14.2,"direction":59.9,"confirmation":39.6,"persistence":25.0,"assessmentRisk":39.4,"intensity":36.5,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint upward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the upward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same upward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has broad support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Control support is limited","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Broadly stable","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Present","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+21.2","detail":"Joint upward confirmation","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+9.4","detail":"Control support is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+14.2","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+59.9","detail":"Upward 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leadership","title":"Strength versus the research benchmark","description":"Relative performance is separated from absolute price direction to reveal leadership and lagging pressure.","reason":"Selected because benchmark-relative leadership is strengthening, fading or diverging from price.","series":[{"label":"Relative 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