{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"MBWS Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"b4c7d7f3-6a54-42ad-9494-a483c91f7fde","symbol":"MBWS","name":"Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits SA","exchange":"PAR","country":"FR","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Consumer Defensive","industry":"Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":3,"completedEpisodes":3,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":15.0,"averageExpectedMove":14.9,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":9.7,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":3,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-4.2,"medianReturn":-1.3,"confidenceLow":43.9,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":3,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-11.2,"medianReturn":-13.8,"confidenceLow":43.9,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":3,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-20.0,"medianReturn":-20.3,"confidenceLow":43.9,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-2.4,"sample":3},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-2.5,"sample":3},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-3.9,"sample":3},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-4.2,"sample":3},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-6.5,"sample":3},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-7.8,"sample":3},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-5.5,"sample":3},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-6.9,"sample":3},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-9.7,"sample":3},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-11.3,"sample":3},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-12.3,"sample":3},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-11.2,"sample":3},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-11.4,"sample":3},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-13.5,"sample":3},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-13.9,"sample":3},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-16.6,"sample":3},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-17.2,"sample":3},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-15.0,"sample":3},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-18.3,"sample":3},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-17.6,"sample":3},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-17.0,"sample":3},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-18.7,"sample":3},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-18.6,"sample":3},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-18.9,"sample":3},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-18.6,"sample":3},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-20.0,"sample":3}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"positive","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":58.8,"averageReturn":5.6,"sample":17},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 58.8% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of 5.6% across 17 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 66.7% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 3 cases. Distinct visits lasted 7.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 10.8% across 17 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.2 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-04-17","price":2.74}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2024-11-15","price":3.64},{"date":"2024-12-27","price":3.78},{"date":"2025-01-17","price":3.77}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2024-10-04","price":3.97},{"date":"2024-11-22","price":3.93},{"date":"2025-01-03","price":3.9}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[3.91,3.83,3.96,4.02,3.86,3.83,3.97,3.86,3.87,3.84,3.95,3.85,3.64,3.93,3.87,3.87,3.9,3.88,3.78,3.9,3.79,3.77,3.6,3.48,3.41,3.34,3.44,3.35,3.19,3.09,3.07,3.36,3.12,3.07,3.21,3.16,3.22,3.26,3.18,3.21,3.23,3.24,3.29,3.24,3.07,3.11,3.04,3.0,2.96,2.96,2.97,3.07,2.97,2.99,2.99,2.94,2.95,2.88,2.96,2.94,2.92,2.95,2.91,2.87,2.89,2.88,2.96,2.89,2.89,2.85,2.85,2.86,2.84,2.83,2.83,2.8,2.79,2.79,2.73,2.75,2.65,2.63,2.6,2.75,2.78,2.74,2.74,2.84,2.78,2.8,2.73,2.78,2.79,2.75,2.74,2.87,2.91,2.93,2.96,2.93,2.95,2.96,2.99,3.03],"consensus":[34.8553,14.097,56.2952,44.0071,-12.263,0.0,42.0414,-14.5937,12.9658,0.0,34.9358,-14.3132,-52.0991,47.3214,-10.1653,0.0,26.1021,0.0,-30.8036,28.5423,-32.4441,-20.2093,-43.7783,-54.7733,-53.3506,-51.5235,0.0,-37.0683,-58.2085,-56.493,-31.2011,25.8283,-49.5408,-17.0408,12.9405,-33.4436,9.0462,18.9487,-22.929,0.0,0.0,0.0,27.978,0.0,-48.4161,0.0,-44.1354,-27.6213,-33.6249,-27.3355,-15.9303,24.3505,-28.6983,0.0,0.0,-28.2313,0.0,-42.9655,15.2736,-11.3288,-11.7329,9.1085,-19.6569,-27.9884,0.0,0.0,36.4728,-20.9968,0.0,-23.4412,-16.999,0.0,-12.059,-13.6286,0.0,-18.8748,-11.4034,0.0,-29.7608,0.0,-51.2466,-29.6831,-32.9156,31.2204,22.9007,-8.0952,9.1127,46.6462,-8.2852,21.5712,-22.7269,15.5858,10.4478,0.0,0.0,40.5057,46.3063,46.3381,47.4918,14.7637,34.3652,30.5639,33.6369,39.1801],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-35.9474,0.0,0.0,-21.4498,0.0,-37.7466,20.9313,-13.0461,-10.8443,4.3018,-20.6132,-29.1013,0.0,0.0,31.1083,-27.9144,0.0,-27.845,-13.3765,0.0,-7.798,-14.5604,0.0,-11.0954,-7.0419,0.0,-20.5455,0.0,-45.077,-26.0313,-29.126,35.7401,21.0011,-22.2358,2.4606,47.5105,-13.5518,23.0973,-29.6214,21.0678,11.1793,0.0,0.0,38.9187,51.4719,52.3177,49.1429,7.5931,32.0117,34.6279,27.9594,25.3562],"force":[-32.1561,0.0,0.0,-34.4208,0.0,-62.2615,42.7849,-11.2508,-7.7802,21.879,-20.3834,-28.4602,0.0,0.0,73.9438,-32.4813,0.0,-21.7622,-6.5725,0.0,-5.0293,-6.3862,0.0,-21.9254,-2.1423,0.0,-39.0874,0.0,-73.714,-16.0257,-24.0659,67.5786,27.4627,-13.8416,10.992,63.6516,-22.2869,19.7313,-33.1004,31.1807,8.3707,0.0,0.0,44.5798,36.8781,28.0833,32.5864,10.3745,32.037,15.4507,35.2333,51.6909],"direction":[-17.9439,0.0,0.0,-31.5606,0.0,-35.147,10.8433,-9.4221,-15.5719,5.4801,-18.0451,-26.3795,0.0,0.0,15.8387,-4.8877,0.0,-19.6076,-28.5865,0.0,-21.9499,-17.7368,0.0,-25.5866,-23.0029,0.0,-33.6307,0.0,-42.2495,-43.6118,-43.5679,0.0848,21.8129,-12.1702,15.3727,33.5116,-7.7349,21.1412,-7.4377,1.8187,11.0954,0.0,0.0,39.4095,47.1372,52.5432,56.2515,40.9147,38.7178,36.7146,38.9851,46.0424],"intensity":[32.6923,28.8462,5.7692,19.2308,15.3846,32.6923,42.3077,17.3077,46.1538,48.0769,25.0,19.2308,11.5385,30.7692,67.3077,38.4615,32.6923,21.1538,13.4615,15.3846,26.9231,9.6154,28.8462,96.1538,73.0769,34.6154,84.6154,30.7692,78.8462,11.5385,67.3077,86.5385,88.4615,21.1538,36.5385,75.0,51.9231,17.3077,59.6154,44.2308,21.1538,61.5385,11.5385,98.0769,40.3846,86.5385,42.3077,17.3077,25.0,25.0,75.0,98.0769],"confirmation":[77.1784,4.0563,2.0877,77.326,3.3635,82.4165,30.6197,71.5967,48.981,26.0438,74.2978,76.9537,2.8991,25.4488,80.895,52.2969,1.4158,75.3829,50.5105,25.0958,26.3762,49.4596,3.2024,74.2515,26.1,25.5534,77.9481,5.3543,85.1777,77.138,78.321,56.363,75.4962,27.8131,48.408,83.4319,49.9812,74.8235,52.817,51.1005,71.2688,24.2816,48.5389,81.1102,82.452,82.1807,82.718,6.2808,78.9618,77.2579,78.899,89.1296],"persistence":[62.5,62.5,50.0,50.0,37.5,37.5,12.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,37.5,50.0,62.5,62.5,75.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,50.0,25.0,37.5,12.5,0.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,37.5,25.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,87.5,100.0,100.0],"assessmentRisk":[21.6702,18.4295,14.6606,34.1017,11.6092,27.1034,32.1233,5.6644,19.8157,38.8899,26.7211,28.9286,26.5259,44.4373,22.2469,30.24,1.5843,16.4233,40.8663,30.3955,37.7635,18.0415,24.8574,37.5375,39.5261,38.7315,34.7642,48.167,24.3635,35.1553,33.5223,15.6102,37.6523,52.1309,44.7781,21.289,4.1426,25.7077,3.9908,43.5832,2.2268,32.6348,4.2234,23.2145,25.3851,26.6541,26.2207,32.0306,15.724,13.0614,11.4423,29.7184],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":39.2,"control":25.4,"force":51.7,"direction":46.0,"confirmation":89.1,"persistence":100.0,"assessmentRisk":29.7,"intensity":98.1,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint upward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the upward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same upward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has broad support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Established","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+39.2","detail":"Joint upward confirmation","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+25.4","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+51.7","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+46.0","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"89/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"65.9","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"3.9%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"19.6","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"87%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend references are aligned 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