{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"BHARATFORG Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"b7e4270e-11c1-4559-82ef-260bd9fe5ba3","symbol":"BHARATFORG","name":"Bharat Forge Limited","exchange":"NSI","country":"IN","asset_type":"equity","currency":"INR","sector":"Consumer Cyclical","industry":"Auto Parts"},"summary":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price has moved below the distribution zone after Market Dynamics weakened.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Directional strength and control, Drawdown and recovery pressure."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price has moved below the distribution zone after Market Dynamics weakened.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Rollover warning","headline":"Price has moved below distribution as Market Dynamics weakened","summary":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price has moved below the distribution zone after Market Dynamics weakened.","take":"The prior extension has started to roll over. Further price weakness would confirm the downside transition; a recovery in both readings would remove the 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":19,"completedEpisodes":18,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":11.0,"averageExpectedMove":13.2,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":7.6,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":18,"expectedCount":10,"expectedPercent":55.6,"averageReturn":3.2,"medianReturn":1.1,"confidenceLow":33.7,"confidenceHigh":75.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":18,"expectedCount":11,"expectedPercent":61.1,"averageReturn":6.9,"medianReturn":5.2,"confidenceLow":38.6,"confidenceHigh":79.7,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":17,"expectedCount":12,"expectedPercent":70.6,"averageReturn":13.3,"medianReturn":11.0,"confidenceLow":46.9,"confidenceHigh":86.7,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":18},{"week":2,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":18},{"week":3,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":18},{"week":4,"averageReturn":3.2,"sample":18},{"week":5,"averageReturn":4.1,"sample":18},{"week":6,"averageReturn":5.3,"sample":18},{"week":7,"averageReturn":3.4,"sample":18},{"week":8,"averageReturn":4.7,"sample":18},{"week":9,"averageReturn":5.8,"sample":18},{"week":10,"averageReturn":5.8,"sample":18},{"week":11,"averageReturn":6.3,"sample":18},{"week":12,"averageReturn":6.9,"sample":18},{"week":13,"averageReturn":8.1,"sample":18},{"week":14,"averageReturn":8.2,"sample":18},{"week":15,"averageReturn":9.4,"sample":18},{"week":16,"averageReturn":9.5,"sample":18},{"week":17,"averageReturn":11.1,"sample":18},{"week":18,"averageReturn":13.6,"sample":18},{"week":19,"averageReturn":12.7,"sample":18},{"week":20,"averageReturn":13.3,"sample":18},{"week":21,"averageReturn":12.6,"sample":18},{"week":22,"averageReturn":12.4,"sample":18},{"week":23,"averageReturn":12.5,"sample":17},{"week":24,"averageReturn":11.4,"sample":17},{"week":25,"averageReturn":12.5,"sample":17},{"week":26,"averageReturn":13.3,"sample":17}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":1,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":0,"expectedPercent":0.0,"averageReturn":0.6,"medianReturn":0.6,"confidenceLow":0.0,"confidenceHigh":79.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":2.4,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":2.9,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":5.9,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-3.5,"sample":1},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Rollover warning","tone":"negative","headline":"Price has moved below distribution as Market Dynamics weakened","use":"The upward trend may still be visible, but this transition increases downside risk. Further price weakness would confirm the rollover.","confirm":"Further price weakness with weak Market Dynamics would confirm the rollover.","invalidate":"A recovery in both price and Market Dynamics would remove the rollover warning.","level":"positive","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has moved down through distribution conditions as Market Dynamics contracted. The completed tape now carries a stronger continuation-risk warning.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":46.7,"averageReturn":5.3,"sample":15},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has moved below distribution","detail":"Price left the upper zone as Market Dynamics weakened."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 46.7% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 5.3% across 15 cases.","watch":"A recovery in both price and Market Dynamics would remove the rollover warning."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 83.3% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 6 cases. Distinct visits lasted 5.5 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 9.5% across 15 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 7.1 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-05-09","price":1158.889893},{"date":"2025-10-03","price":1218.806396}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-08-14","price":2065.0}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2026-06-26","price":2138.810791}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[1607.2523,1574.2203,1538.7087,1603.2347,1578.5354,1510.2397,1461.932,1480.3325,1462.8743,1388.9247,1407.2261,1408.6149,1318.0499,1305.5514,1321.522,1343.8406,1337.4426,1268.6016,1304.2618,1285.7125,1200.1075,1197.7765,1206.7537,1214.1932,1130.2743,1069.6664,1052.8539,1010.6482,1081.5378,1033.2672,1174.4995,1162.4194,1020.1432,996.3809,1062.0505,1082.2336,1098.0421,1158.8899,1255.7291,1237.9321,1233.7563,1288.9369,1301.7626,1270.941,1302.1603,1312.9988,1213.4126,1215.2106,1202.6249,1144.791,1133.9034,1179.1517,1121.7174,1105.436,1135.4017,1221.6033,1271.2465,1179.7511,1218.8064,1218.6067,1240.182,1282.4337,1323.187,1315.5957,1395.1049,1408.5894,1432.1625,1404.3943,1424.9707,1438.2555,1442.1511,1475.5128,1442.8502,1455.7356,1407.191,1439.7538,1555.7212,1736.8142,1780.0,1911.2,1923.9,1675.1,1711.5,1725.1,1642.6,1798.8,1860.5,1856.0,1875.9084,1983.6815,1907.3132,1891.9597,1951.2798,1923.9628,1939.2164,2035.2252,2138.8108,2136.7,2117.0,2190.5,2151.6001,2199.8,2265.2,2065.0],"consensus":[11.128,-17.9437,-32.3204,29.2021,-9.6138,-42.6846,-43.2669,-15.5285,-29.3538,-56.7775,-13.8486,-27.5754,-59.8146,-37.6159,-27.9427,-14.3124,-18.0227,-55.405,0.0,-33.3628,-64.8334,-27.3125,-27.321,-17.9723,-66.5106,-62.5355,-50.0755,-57.7486,0.0,-53.206,48.09,0.0,-61.4333,-19.0698,0.0,0.0,9.1142,49.8345,67.9534,23.7774,19.2028,62.9753,31.8979,0.0,45.7033,33.2608,-39.1266,-8.7778,-19.728,-50.7157,-30.1472,9.7967,-52.7879,-38.2097,0.0,49.2455,55.0621,-25.1338,40.0688,9.1708,16.8062,45.6179,55.9854,23.3714,71.6382,40.6276,52.8419,16.1892,43.2625,41.253,18.1605,52.0116,0.0,29.5859,-19.2292,19.8079,64.3928,78.2226,65.9971,82.9019,60.8951,-31.1062,17.0549,14.1267,-30.4616,61.6332,53.4986,22.6141,32.0367,61.8721,0.0,16.6689,45.6083,0.0,19.37,45.197,48.2655,25.6587,20.6312,63.3148,0.0,48.6843,61.7249,46.9251],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-54.39,-42.642,0.0,46.5268,57.2588,-39.6617,32.7728,11.5029,23.3313,42.4172,60.3104,14.5057,68.8822,33.2862,52.9921,6.6207,48.5477,48.4128,14.5739,53.8315,0.0,33.3877,-18.3477,27.0491,55.7432,78.541,62.0001,84.1564,63.9606,-32.8915,21.7829,27.0036,-25.6469,57.5577,56.5975,15.5172,25.1981,55.854,0.0,17.7544,51.395,0.0,20.8679,47.9269,49.7484,14.5019,8.7862,69.2954,0.0,55.9135,67.5603,40.6189],"force":[-64.2738,-29.8598,0.0,84.0512,59.8694,-53.7401,66.9467,2.8994,15.0648,48.7435,51.2886,1.1367,89.2333,23.3694,39.5566,22.33,31.2519,24.0194,4.9752,45.3086,0.0,17.5542,-42.658,25.3701,91.7656,93.2044,67.1221,92.7865,37.9992,-87.0696,14.4722,7.1199,-50.2339,91.977,52.9817,0.1725,17.7169,80.5753,0.0,0.0446,44.57,0.0,5.5465,34.159,32.3088,1.55,7.2134,62.2784,0.0,39.7025,59.049,93.0936],"direction":[-42.7528,-39.1085,0.0,27.4914,49.1178,-11.9026,29.2086,10.985,10.5928,47.0432,54.3974,51.0094,62.22,61.3451,62.1598,54.6383,45.8013,45.3802,38.7851,54.7197,0.0,33.835,-3.5017,7.5594,54.7261,67.1574,69.7617,74.4076,73.7458,-10.9079,13.4963,4.4152,-21.841,44.6168,50.3263,47.0011,50.0805,55.3905,0.0,27.3028,39.7366,0.0,27.532,49.9614,57.9684,57.844,54.0572,57.2202,0.0,46.838,56.9672,21.1545],"intensity":[53.8462,36.5385,23.0769,82.6923,75.0,82.6923,38.4615,3.8462,26.9231,36.5385,50.0,21.1538,76.9231,65.3846,21.1538,21.1538,32.6923,30.7692,53.8462,25.0,25.0,21.1538,55.7692,23.0769,94.2308,100.0,94.2308,90.3846,13.4615,100.0,82.6923,61.5385,76.9231,96.1538,88.4615,80.7692,7.6923,86.5385,76.9231,69.2308,63.4615,11.5385,23.0769,84.6154,86.5385,30.7692,7.6923,63.4615,44.2308,48.0769,57.6923,98.0769],"confirmation":[85.2178,79.9051,4.3916,84.8607,85.7329,33.8991,81.7523,48.0413,73.2255,82.7417,85.7063,52.4429,91.5025,80.5867,84.5022,8.9162,81.3974,80.5666,51.5557,84.4117,31.6049,77.0429,52.2141,51.731,89.5717,93.483,89.2143,94.8107,86.7419,36.626,73.3068,26.7775,78.4237,88.7095,85.0566,52.0203,77.9195,88.4608,32.1906,50.1442,82.4748,26.5841,51.0876,82.085,82.9361,53.2156,52.8061,88.138,7.2615,83.1951,87.5815,84.5192],"persistence":[50.0,75.0,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,87.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,87.5,87.5,75.0,87.5,87.5,62.5],"assessmentRisk":[21.4961,17.4908,2.0266,11.1517,22.2497,56.7,25.3972,7.7042,36.7508,25.6699,20.9169,36.8368,14.0064,29.3665,22.9882,40.0517,9.7067,11.2354,9.3746,23.6169,28.725,12.3676,30.0108,50.3055,17.3269,10.8815,17.0011,8.549,19.5517,12.0266,38.373,54.7514,34.3442,9.8496,17.1372,30.6857,32.7055,16.0191,23.1633,8.7325,9.9523,29.6124,13.2689,26.0021,25.3848,37.0512,39.5336,17.9746,7.2831,15.4736,18.7135,22.8637],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":46.9,"control":40.6,"force":93.1,"direction":21.2,"confirmation":84.5,"persistence":62.5,"assessmentRisk":22.9,"intensity":98.1,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+46.9","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+40.6","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+93.1","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+21.2","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"85/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"57.7","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"5.4%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"45.2","detail":"Directional","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Range position","value":"66%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility 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