{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"HILS Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"bb251687-c972-4515-b384-9c3e7a2e4f34","symbol":"HILS","name":"Hill & Smith PLC","exchange":"LSE","country":"GB","asset_type":"equity","currency":"GBP","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Engineering & Construction"},"summary":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price has moved below the distribution zone after Market Dynamics weakened.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Directional strength and control, Range pressure and compression."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price has moved below the distribution zone after Market Dynamics weakened.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Rollover warning","headline":"Price has moved below distribution as Market Dynamics weakened","summary":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price has moved below the distribution zone after Market Dynamics weakened.","take":"The prior extension has started to roll over. Further price weakness would confirm the downside transition; a recovery in both readings would remove the 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":20,"completedEpisodes":17,"activeEpisodes":3,"medianExpectedMove":11.3,"averageExpectedMove":12.2,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":9.5,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":18,"expectedCount":10,"expectedPercent":55.6,"averageReturn":1.4,"medianReturn":0.9,"confidenceLow":33.7,"confidenceHigh":75.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":17,"expectedCount":13,"expectedPercent":76.5,"averageReturn":6.8,"medianReturn":7.4,"confidenceLow":52.7,"confidenceHigh":90.4,"confidence":"Historically consistent"},{"weeks":26,"sample":15,"expectedCount":11,"expectedPercent":73.3,"averageReturn":12.1,"medianReturn":13.6,"confidenceLow":48.0,"confidenceHigh":89.1,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":19},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":19},{"week":3,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":18},{"week":4,"averageReturn":1.4,"sample":18},{"week":5,"averageReturn":1.9,"sample":18},{"week":6,"averageReturn":3.9,"sample":18},{"week":7,"averageReturn":5.6,"sample":18},{"week":8,"averageReturn":5.2,"sample":17},{"week":9,"averageReturn":4.9,"sample":17},{"week":10,"averageReturn":6.3,"sample":17},{"week":11,"averageReturn":6.6,"sample":17},{"week":12,"averageReturn":6.8,"sample":17},{"week":13,"averageReturn":8.4,"sample":17},{"week":14,"averageReturn":9.4,"sample":17},{"week":15,"averageReturn":9.7,"sample":17},{"week":16,"averageReturn":9.2,"sample":17},{"week":17,"averageReturn":9.9,"sample":17},{"week":18,"averageReturn":10.3,"sample":17},{"week":19,"averageReturn":9.9,"sample":17},{"week":20,"averageReturn":10.5,"sample":17},{"week":21,"averageReturn":12.9,"sample":17},{"week":22,"averageReturn":13.3,"sample":17},{"week":23,"averageReturn":13.1,"sample":16},{"week":24,"averageReturn":13.1,"sample":16},{"week":25,"averageReturn":12.8,"sample":16},{"week":26,"averageReturn":12.1,"sample":15}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Rollover warning","tone":"negative","headline":"Price has moved below distribution as Market Dynamics weakened","use":"The upward trend may still be visible, but this transition increases downside risk. Further price weakness would confirm the rollover.","confirm":"Further price weakness with weak Market Dynamics would confirm the rollover.","invalidate":"A recovery in both price and Market Dynamics would remove the rollover warning.","level":"positive","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has moved down through distribution conditions as Market Dynamics contracted. The completed tape now carries a stronger continuation-risk warning.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":42.9,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":21},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has moved below distribution","detail":"Price left the upper zone as Market Dynamics weakened."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 42.9% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 0.5% across 21 cases.","watch":"A recovery in both price and Market Dynamics would remove the rollover warning."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 3 cases. Distinct visits lasted 2.3 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 9.3% across 21 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.8 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-05-30","price":1851.616577},{"date":"2025-06-27","price":1803.626465}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-07-31","price":2850.0},{"date":"2026-08-14","price":2930.0}],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-16","2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[2089.0449,2094.0427,2144.02,1993.0886,2039.0679,2034.0701,2074.052,2014.0792,1985.0925,2049.063,2009.0815,2059.0586,2114.0334,2159.0129,2144.02,2064.2183,2094.2068,1959.2578,1879.2882,1883.2866,1843.3018,1791.3215,1889.2844,1953.2601,1993.2449,1937.2662,1929.2692,1947.2625,1911.2761,1905.2783,1893.2828,1895.2821,1815.3125,1571.4048,1613.3889,1701.3556,1771.3291,1825.3087,1831.3064,1931.2686,1825.3087,1851.6166,1799.6272,1679.6522,1667.6547,1803.6265,1801.6268,1899.6066,1953.5953,2029.5796,2019.5818,1985.5889,2159.5527,2189.5466,2114.562,2139.5569,2109.5632,2069.5713,2019.5818,2089.5674,2089.5674,2059.5735,2199.5447,2154.554,2094.5662,2129.5588,2129.5588,2254.7175,2264.7163,2174.7275,2174.7275,2169.7283,2154.7302,2294.7126,2329.7083,2339.707,2229.7207,2294.7126,2319.7095,2424.6963,2379.7019,2159.7295,2074.7402,2109.7358,2164.7288,2319.7095,2434.6951,2409.6982,2504.6863,2574.6775,2549.6807,2759.6543,2770.0,2795.0,2845.0,2865.0,2760.0,2855.0,2925.0,2995.0,3030.0,2850.0,3095.0,2930.0],"consensus":[18.4379,0.0,23.7579,-45.898,0.0,-14.0308,0.0,-25.078,-29.5381,21.8957,-22.5718,24.0726,35.9319,37.9554,24.564,-23.4368,8.2302,-55.3025,-57.5657,-33.9435,-48.9083,-53.2334,16.9737,20.5511,33.6944,-11.8256,-10.5157,0.0,-27.4413,-10.1065,-10.3184,-18.8127,-46.5986,-74.6563,-18.214,0.0,15.8747,28.9436,16.1209,48.4354,-16.5663,10.3612,-21.8516,-51.9294,-34.1568,31.5251,0.0,49.9922,48.5759,58.3317,28.9363,15.7313,66.3516,49.5933,0.0,37.9212,0.0,-15.4498,-22.6482,27.7574,0.0,-9.1654,56.652,0.0,-16.5296,17.7503,0.0,61.1423,34.055,-17.1201,0.0,0.0,-11.5181,59.7592,40.7816,37.3307,-21.796,32.2049,21.7991,58.1027,11.0317,-52.5572,-56.6036,-17.7758,0.0,45.4532,55.9728,19.2451,55.9813,50.7331,19.306,75.9426,35.8708,47.2264,50.7782,33.9951,12.9529,49.6576,53.2531,55.6702,46.0599,-23.8112,64.3385,24.6188],"supportDates":["2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[58.2891,50.6223,0.0,35.2764,0.0,-14.5179,-22.7733,39.9709,0.0,-10.7943,55.7704,0.0,-22.5956,14.3666,0.0,63.1167,31.8028,-28.1622,0.0,0.0,-4.8903,56.1487,37.9276,34.6129,-28.1426,37.7391,26.4946,57.8436,4.078,-49.7253,-48.4409,-9.498,0.0,45.6235,58.7692,12.9377,47.2007,42.8941,15.6165,75.9817,28.5957,48.4072,52.7789,30.4553,15.6116,61.899,66.0187,58.3094,40.4209,-28.7047,65.319,22.3036],"force":[86.8661,33.2881,0.0,24.2021,0.0,-38.5698,-36.3827,35.8031,0.0,-22.7781,70.5958,0.0,-36.3421,17.5931,0.0,82.2336,18.3722,-47.0592,0.0,0.0,-16.7136,88.313,35.2516,27.9666,-63.0186,44.1295,19.1727,78.4023,19.2957,-75.4547,-74.8702,-10.6639,0.0,63.6154,60.8548,7.2129,73.8048,56.2368,12.9358,93.8476,10.0033,25.2178,29.635,7.7955,15.2129,35.2073,35.5788,50.0255,36.231,-69.094,78.6514,75.2526],"direction":[60.9125,60.064,0.0,50.7433,0.0,-0.0005,-12.6947,8.0522,0.0,-2.4195,47.6998,0.0,-4.5547,21.7298,0.0,43.8207,47.8309,-16.8847,0.0,0.0,-15.3816,43.4898,47.9934,47.1255,-14.9018,17.3627,18.3088,43.8992,40.6411,-39.4382,-52.8849,-47.5502,0.0,32.2854,49.2898,45.352,53.2852,55.7608,46.5525,63.1085,62.662,61.5974,63.594,56.7544,30.0328,45.9891,51.2884,56.6859,59.5252,-14.1261,52.9945,8.9023],"intensity":[98.0769,84.6154,51.9231,59.6154,36.5385,42.3077,25.0,51.9231,40.3846,17.3077,90.3846,44.2308,40.3846,7.6923,7.6923,76.9231,51.9231,63.4615,46.1538,19.2308,1.9231,90.3846,69.2308,42.3077,76.9231,44.2308,59.6154,71.1538,17.3077,98.0769,92.3077,11.5385,53.8462,90.3846,92.3077,55.7692,63.4615,59.6154,17.3077,98.0769,100.0,3.8462,25.0,59.6154,80.7692,65.3846,46.1538,75.0,76.9231,92.3077,100.0,86.5385],"confirmation":[89.9806,83.3573,32.814,79.757,5.223,50.9961,75.6641,76.9415,24.9751,49.1725,86.567,4.8723,52.1059,73.7269,24.0998,88.1782,78.454,32.4913,24.639,2.0797,49.2785,88.0482,80.9251,79.7019,33.9801,78.5847,74.8241,87.2155,6.8283,85.5593,86.7942,29.8893,6.0729,83.0959,86.0175,52.3203,86.591,84.5218,30.6778,92.8467,78.8012,82.4237,83.5742,55.4672,29.1581,83.2635,84.3078,85.6022,82.5256,34.6053,89.0096,42.0222],"persistence":[87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,75.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,0.0,12.5,25.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,37.5,50.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,87.5,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,75.0,50.0],"assessmentRisk":[16.0539,23.6651,40.0929,29.053,30.2691,38.9822,33.1294,45.1219,17.2234,3.086,21.0178,31.7506,11.6065,32.7879,42.7682,15.3864,32.519,37.6633,27.3982,42.1774,41.3316,16.6402,28.3452,30.9117,50.7443,16.1025,18.2545,12.4789,43.3687,18.8807,21.2599,41.0136,46.4041,23.2304,21.9451,40.145,21.884,24.1363,31.909,11.8661,31.362,24.8938,24.5688,29.0873,12.752,6.8842,12.8173,19.4513,26.9253,9.1598,13.7394,12.3965],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":24.6,"control":22.3,"force":75.3,"direction":8.9,"confirmation":42.0,"persistence":50.0,"assessmentRisk":12.4,"intensity":86.5,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint upward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the upward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same upward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has broad support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+24.6","detail":"Joint upward confirmation","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+22.3","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+75.3","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+8.9","detail":"Follow-through is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"42/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"60.8","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"6.0%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"32.6","detail":"Directional","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Range position","value":"76%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend references are aligned 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leadership","title":"Strength versus the research benchmark","description":"Relative performance is separated from absolute price direction to reveal leadership and lagging pressure.","reason":"Selected because benchmark-relative leadership is strengthening, fading or diverging from price.","series":[{"label":"Relative 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