{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"2381 Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"bc2b1f4c-a717-4aca-838e-b3bcdd8f5f0e","symbol":"2381","name":"Arabian Drilling Company","exchange":"SAU","country":"SA","asset_type":"equity","currency":"SAR","sector":"Energy","industry":"Oil & Gas Drilling"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price structure remains rotational.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Strength versus the research benchmark, Range pressure and compression, Range position and boundary pressure."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":194,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price structure remains rotational.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Negative pressure; price rotational","headline":"Market Dynamics is negative while price has no clear direction","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":10,"completedEpisodes":9,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":6.0,"averageExpectedMove":12.3,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.8,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":10,"expectedCount":6,"expectedPercent":60.0,"averageReturn":2.6,"medianReturn":0.7,"confidenceLow":31.3,"confidenceHigh":83.2,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":9,"expectedCount":4,"expectedPercent":44.4,"averageReturn":4.5,"medianReturn":-0.3,"confidenceLow":18.9,"confidenceHigh":73.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":9,"expectedCount":4,"expectedPercent":44.4,"averageReturn":-0.7,"medianReturn":-7.5,"confidenceLow":18.9,"confidenceHigh":73.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":10},{"week":2,"averageReturn":1.4,"sample":10},{"week":3,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":10},{"week":4,"averageReturn":2.6,"sample":10},{"week":5,"averageReturn":2.8,"sample":9},{"week":6,"averageReturn":1.9,"sample":9},{"week":7,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":9},{"week":8,"averageReturn":4.5,"sample":9},{"week":9,"averageReturn":6.2,"sample":9},{"week":10,"averageReturn":2.1,"sample":9},{"week":11,"averageReturn":3.4,"sample":9},{"week":12,"averageReturn":4.5,"sample":9},{"week":13,"averageReturn":8.8,"sample":9},{"week":14,"averageReturn":8.0,"sample":9},{"week":15,"averageReturn":6.1,"sample":9},{"week":16,"averageReturn":3.7,"sample":9},{"week":17,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":9},{"week":18,"averageReturn":2.9,"sample":9},{"week":19,"averageReturn":4.4,"sample":9},{"week":20,"averageReturn":3.4,"sample":9},{"week":21,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":9},{"week":22,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":9},{"week":23,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":9},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-0.5,"sample":9},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-2.4,"sample":9},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":9}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Negative pressure; price rotational","tone":"caution","headline":"Market Dynamics is negative while price remains rotational","use":"Treat the pressure as context until price establishes a clear response.","confirm":"The underlying condition is weak, but a negative price response is still required.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price is between the accumulation and distribution zones. The Market Dynamics bars describe whether the current move is gaining or losing underlying support.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":80.0,"averageReturn":-5.8,"sample":10},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has no clear direction","detail":"Price remains rotational while the Market Dynamics condition develops."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 80.0% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of -5.8% across 10 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 50.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 4 cases. Distinct visits lasted 7.2 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 11.2% across 10 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 8.1 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-07-11","price":87.800003},{"date":"2025-10-31","price":88.550003},{"date":"2026-06-12","price":89.900002}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[119.2206,115.8706,116.2647,112.1265,110.3529,115.8706,109.3676,104.4412,104.6382,106.8059,108.3824,108.5794,112.3235,108.7765,110.55,113.1118,116.0677,111.1412,110.1559,109.9588,105.2294,107.0029,106.2147,104.6382,104.8353,103.85,101.8794,98.7265,89.1691,90.45,93.2,95.8,93.3,87.8,89.1,86.9,85.4,83.5,84.2,82.6,84.2,83.6,77.7,72.5,80.5,82.0,87.8,87.5,84.35,75.1,76.85,73.7,74.55,75.2,73.4,73.3,76.0,77.15,77.5,76.25,74.15,74.85,88.55,89.9,92.0,93.35,91.75,91.95,95.0,101.2,99.15,99.95,99.2,102.6,105.5,105.1,99.6,95.8,88.7,89.9,83.0,82.2,82.25,77.5,80.9,81.55,89.5,87.6,90.9,89.7,87.35,87.1,87.1,87.6,89.9,93.75,91.8,91.45,91.55,89.35,90.0,80.7,81.7,88.65],"consensus":[-21.6108,-48.9616,-26.8843,-46.9831,-38.8208,14.6742,-56.3828,-54.9085,-38.6623,-18.457,-16.5997,-8.568,24.2395,-25.228,0.0,21.5711,33.7836,-23.5597,-11.8844,0.0,-52.3641,0.0,-22.9908,-31.4972,-12.1027,-30.0313,-36.9419,-50.6689,-79.6884,-19.6539,-21.7997,0.0,-35.6029,-47.4167,-30.8732,-50.3877,-49.9672,-52.9291,-26.2458,-44.3532,0.0,-15.0319,-65.1008,-62.5987,16.3869,0.0,54.6143,14.3854,-14.43,-62.0578,-11.5271,-50.99,-32.0974,-20.0853,-37.6614,-21.8375,15.6379,15.9442,10.1855,-14.6211,-39.0788,0.0,73.4276,42.306,56.2248,53.025,26.4025,35.8471,55.3724,73.4794,18.997,43.6663,19.153,47.6185,58.6172,31.6855,-15.0451,-32.6278,-58.4351,-20.0684,-54.1776,-46.1065,-26.8416,-66.4736,-9.3253,-10.2431,45.533,0.0,34.7988,0.0,-19.2438,-9.1662,-8.7736,0.0,30.6557,57.41,0.0,15.2967,9.888,-26.5759,0.0,-63.5108,-26.444,-33.9706],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-33.9527,-29.965,-43.7114,-28.3253,15.2205,14.5654,0.6804,-28.0241,-47.0259,0.0,64.6087,27.0969,51.6107,45.9524,25.215,38.6086,58.8823,70.2097,7.7583,40.7588,10.3258,47.1087,62.2275,28.2238,-24.9688,-31.6657,-61.6309,-9.9626,-48.494,-42.6553,-16.9968,-67.15,-4.1617,-5.1236,44.0192,0.0,33.0554,0.0,-18.931,-12.2127,-3.4937,0.0,28.9112,58.712,0.0,10.109,5.157,-25.2248,0.0,-58.1836,-20.2578,-35.8082],"force":[-10.5658,-1.5505,-27.196,-5.3048,42.5176,28.9698,14.2564,-24.9598,-49.1614,0.0,99.4685,33.0156,47.476,43.671,9.4827,14.668,50.7618,88.0266,23.5971,23.7914,11.8949,49.3982,49.9929,2.9248,-47.8592,-48.1226,-62.2815,-4.6358,-53.0062,-31.0216,-1.2792,-67.5682,-30.9373,-15.9528,79.4642,0.0,39.7707,0.0,-31.806,-8.3202,-6.4489,0.0,44.7976,70.1258,0.0,3.74,0.0298,-43.9305,0.0,-84.1406,-0.0035,-76.6086],"direction":[-45.3568,-22.0332,-38.2224,-26.2318,3.0846,8.216,18.1405,-8.0814,-22.7946,0.0,64.9058,66.324,67.7471,67.7895,53.392,47.8192,54.6544,66.8253,62.2656,61.1854,51.4185,46.9298,60.6515,56.1852,-19.735,-22.6596,-52.0354,-49.2638,-61.5097,-60.8256,-56.3517,-64.9186,-43.9855,-34.8053,23.0263,0.0,33.24,0.0,-10.6284,-6.2889,-16.4683,0.0,22.5479,46.8394,0.0,29.4803,22.3365,-15.724,0.0,-54.8634,-52.4051,-1.4148],"intensity":[9.6154,1.9231,25.0,1.9231,44.2308,38.4615,25.0,15.3846,34.6154,13.4615,100.0,100.0,26.9231,23.0769,38.4615,5.7692,67.3077,82.6923,71.1538,28.8462,34.6154,65.3846,53.8462,11.5385,73.0769,65.3846,82.6923,63.4615,88.4615,67.3077,92.3077,63.4615,55.7692,7.6923,86.5385,46.1538,53.8462,21.1538,57.6923,19.2308,17.3077,19.2308,46.1538,63.4615,36.5385,65.3846,7.6923,44.2308,46.1538,94.2308,86.5385,92.3077],"confirmation":[77.5867,51.0452,79.6405,51.7186,51.8211,73.5201,48.8616,29.1803,80.6914,4.3262,92.4249,81.4866,85.7956,84.7907,32.0629,78.7835,85.5252,92.0066,9.9862,81.4118,30.5215,83.2999,86.4397,54.6489,32.54,78.9278,86.7678,52.1453,85.3877,82.3469,53.2936,89.2946,8.4357,5.9607,83.6277,27.292,79.3137,27.5018,74.5456,48.1943,25.4838,24.1527,78.2674,86.7389,31.0541,49.9551,25.6025,77.0538,48.4523,89.0333,53.0844,57.4754],"persistence":[37.5,50.0,75.0,100.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,62.5,87.5,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,62.5,37.5,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,0.0,12.5,0.0,25.0,25.0,37.5,25.0,0.0,0.0],"assessmentRisk":[32.6246,11.1487,13.2736,6.262,9.1381,17.4953,36.4689,45.4034,8.1942,32.7305,12.8978,28.7421,21.8793,23.4816,20.6822,6.7406,5.2849,11.3753,37.8433,26.186,29.1322,6.734,16.9384,33.2414,14.5098,32.5347,20.7734,39.9437,22.8847,26.8558,34.5825,16.6914,21.3924,3.6325,23.971,50.7232,31.644,46.5169,14.6523,2.3112,34.9054,29.5453,18.9208,19.8386,47.0225,36.4226,21.5864,35.5665,40.2477,18.1719,36.6347,26.6768],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-34.0,"control":-35.8,"force":-76.6,"direction":-1.4,"confirmation":57.5,"persistence":0.0,"assessmentRisk":26.7,"intensity":92.3,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-34.0","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-35.8","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-76.6","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-1.4","detail":"Follow-through is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"57/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"50.5","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"6.2%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"15.3","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"61%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its 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