{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"AHL Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"bc956a5a-c0f3-46bd-91ba-baf73946fbad","symbol":"AHL","name":"Adrad Holdings Limited","exchange":"ASX","country":"AU","asset_type":"equity","currency":"AUD","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Specialty Industrial Machinery"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price structure remains rotational.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Directional strength and control, Activity pressure and cumulative balance."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":203,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. 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record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":2.2,"sample":16},{"week":2,"averageReturn":0.1,"sample":16},{"week":3,"averageReturn":0.9,"sample":16},{"week":4,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":16},{"week":5,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":16},{"week":6,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":15},{"week":7,"averageReturn":2.5,"sample":15},{"week":8,"averageReturn":4.3,"sample":15},{"week":9,"averageReturn":3.1,"sample":15},{"week":10,"averageReturn":4.7,"sample":15},{"week":11,"averageReturn":5.6,"sample":15},{"week":12,"averageReturn":4.7,"sample":15},{"week":13,"averageReturn":3.4,"sample":15},{"week":14,"averageReturn":6.6,"sample":15},{"week":15,"averageReturn":7.7,"sample":15},{"week":16,"averageReturn":8.1,"sample":15},{"week":17,"averageReturn":7.8,"sample":15},{"week":18,"averageReturn":8.4,"sample":15},{"week":19,"averageReturn":10.5,"sample":15},{"week":20,"averageReturn":11.3,"sample":15},{"week":21,"averageReturn":10.9,"sample":15},{"week":22,"averageReturn":13.0,"sample":15},{"week":23,"averageReturn":14.4,"sample":15},{"week":24,"averageReturn":11.9,"sample":15},{"week":25,"averageReturn":13.6,"sample":15},{"week":26,"averageReturn":12.7,"sample":15}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":1,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-19.1,"medianReturn":-19.1,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-6.5,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-12.2,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-16.5,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-19.1,"sample":1},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying support lags price","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"This is a downside risk watch, not a completed reversal. Stronger Market Dynamics or weaker price is needed to close the gap.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":27.3,"averageReturn":7.2,"sample":11},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 27.3% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 7.2% across 11 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 80.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 5 cases. Distinct visits lasted 4.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 7.6% across 11 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 4.8 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2024-09-20","price":0.739991},{"date":"2025-06-20","price":0.642329},{"date":"2025-07-18","price":0.661503}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-07-10","price":1.305},{"date":"2026-07-24","price":1.3}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2026-07-17","price":1.39}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[0.6425,0.6425,0.6838,0.7526,0.74,0.7025,0.6744,0.7259,0.7213,0.6978,0.6744,0.6557,0.6651,0.6557,0.74,0.6416,0.6323,0.6276,0.6276,0.6276,0.6651,0.637,0.6557,0.7213,0.6744,0.7025,0.6838,0.6089,0.6042,0.5808,0.5714,0.5608,0.5752,0.5944,0.6519,0.6615,0.6088,0.604,0.58,0.58,0.556,0.604,0.6136,0.6423,0.6232,0.6136,0.6136,0.6615,0.6519,0.6567,0.6567,0.6279,0.7622,0.6663,0.7204,0.7796,0.75,0.7105,0.7599,0.7302,0.7599,0.7697,0.8881,0.9079,0.8733,0.8881,1.0362,1.0263,0.9868,0.9769,0.9967,1.0016,1.0263,1.0164,0.9868,0.9769,0.9128,0.9128,1.0362,1.046,1.0559,1.0855,1.1,1.1,1.1,1.15,1.255,1.3,1.315,1.23,1.3,1.315,1.325,1.34,1.42,1.42,1.44,1.425,1.305,1.39,1.3,1.22,1.16,1.125],"consensus":[0.0,-13.3648,30.1409,53.1488,16.2527,0.0,-28.6904,32.3606,0.0,-16.1292,-29.4323,-41.7361,-10.9773,-17.517,61.8369,-52.686,-35.3442,-37.2291,-36.8933,-18.14,32.9325,-26.9772,27.9995,65.6977,-28.1548,47.5508,0.0,-65.547,-45.952,-49.8007,-42.0461,-52.3647,-17.4585,14.075,52.2049,43.1022,-25.326,0.0,-35.0718,-27.9129,-52.1189,29.2212,13.1118,41.7146,0.0,0.0,11.207,49.9648,0.0,19.7653,9.6014,-27.2261,70.3702,-27.4207,44.7747,60.8292,-9.1807,-12.7297,51.0594,-18.7753,41.2741,17.4178,77.6787,48.5816,9.8915,42.1523,83.2569,32.0571,10.7196,33.0621,28.2917,8.7057,50.4122,27.9727,-9.6443,14.1908,-56.7904,-31.4131,54.2643,40.4105,37.3897,50.0914,39.7089,36.0949,30.4802,58.2496,66.1994,48.8987,46.8402,0.0,59.1849,41.2007,43.0418,54.7765,66.0029,32.3863,41.9599,15.5471,-16.2104,34.5444,-45.4968,-57.5134,-62.9041,-45.6424],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[62.9263,-31.9268,42.9642,53.0846,-7.3998,-25.3004,48.6925,-18.7591,48.2744,4.4005,78.5616,44.9686,5.8083,36.1439,86.0424,25.1572,6.2057,30.8341,41.7169,6.4047,62.5285,28.5699,-16.7802,27.6621,-48.6201,-27.7632,47.4711,40.9091,35.744,55.3289,35.3395,39.2953,33.5907,55.2932,62.3969,37.8355,46.1816,0.0,60.7108,48.5057,58.0264,59.9009,78.2711,24.518,40.0444,2.2029,-5.0067,47.3324,-44.5234,-53.2534,-63.7802,-32.3992],"force":[95.0212,-78.3196,49.0958,77.0945,-62.5667,-44.3492,72.1705,-49.0665,49.1864,5.4757,97.3366,31.8453,49.6928,29.6147,98.63,4.6853,32.1515,7.4774,8.4545,15.3604,33.2104,3.7835,-34.864,7.8169,-89.4898,-21.5129,86.7028,37.126,27.2446,40.6809,39.4298,24.3964,17.2402,79.6199,80.1843,45.7565,23.0324,0.0,71.4761,27.6975,22.0733,44.007,51.3818,6.8794,18.7054,16.9786,-21.5988,42.1895,-63.9559,-66.7809,-60.874,-41.0664],"direction":[61.2697,-14.0855,43.7573,58.0622,-26.9168,-24.2223,38.6851,-2.8429,27.6223,40.8249,62.6284,64.6652,57.1182,57.9746,69.0926,66.1872,60.6849,53.8832,27.1181,28.5255,48.8521,44.5681,-16.5251,3.348,-42.7712,-42.6559,38.8576,42.1868,46.517,50.8275,44.902,40.7933,36.3826,46.3639,60.5559,63.7869,64.5986,0.0,48.6614,42.4972,40.8941,56.6127,62.4257,59.5978,60.7594,54.0304,-25.1658,14.4689,-33.4241,-55.7625,-63.3529,-64.0461],"intensity":[100.0,96.1538,75.0,78.8462,42.3077,53.8462,69.2308,42.3077,42.3077,59.6154,98.0769,96.1538,40.3846,34.6154,100.0,92.3077,75.0,88.4615,80.7692,13.4615,19.2308,1.9231,36.5385,44.2308,75.0,15.3846,98.0769,73.0769,61.5385,28.8462,82.6923,50.0,3.8462,61.5385,100.0,84.6154,5.7692,84.6154,73.0769,82.6923,3.8462,9.6154,80.7692,69.2308,55.7692,63.4615,100.0,88.4615,80.7692,90.3846,57.6923,92.3077],"confirmation":[91.3832,35.9287,82.4872,88.0791,10.3342,32.6797,85.0185,52.8713,81.3422,28.0748,93.4428,83.0911,12.0127,81.1982,95.0683,55.5765,10.5645,55.1674,76.2442,5.3643,83.423,53.5383,29.9381,26.8082,87.294,77.8061,86.4567,80.8237,79.6806,83.6627,80.7649,79.1451,77.3028,87.3362,89.668,83.7204,82.2733,36.7074,87.2905,80.6614,80.906,85.1222,88.4884,55.0395,80.7477,7.8093,50.8556,79.0924,83.1364,86.7517,88.0541,82.6679],"persistence":[50.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,100.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0],"assessmentRisk":[14.2917,23.0854,20.0316,19.2712,6.5885,39.82,5.0271,25.7446,11.8835,30.6804,9.519,25.3711,42.4256,27.7611,7.8813,32.5293,42.7609,29.3552,45.3425,25.8918,6.9522,17.8861,4.2203,31.8131,20.6358,32.9757,7.5238,26.1179,31.1909,24.9324,25.9837,25.3825,24.4813,16.4242,16.7304,25.5305,26.571,50.1923,6.1,3.6327,9.9546,22.0595,16.5118,32.8217,28.4188,39.8286,39.8845,41.4155,26.1858,21.0592,17.546,27.1651],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-45.6,"control":-32.4,"force":-41.1,"direction":-64.0,"confirmation":82.7,"persistence":25.0,"assessmentRisk":27.2,"intensity":92.3,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Broadly stable","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-45.6","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-32.4","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-41.1","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-64.0","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"83/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"42.9","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"8.1%","detail":"Elevated","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"42.6","detail":"Directional","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Range position","value":"37%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility 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