{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"CIEN Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"bcdaba4a-3ad3-4c33-b0e3-914af8d6cf5d","symbol":"CIEN","name":"Ciena Corporation","exchange":"MEX","country":"MX","asset_type":"equity","currency":"MXN","sector":"Technology","industry":"Communication Equipment"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":7,"completedEpisodes":6,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":15.4,"averageExpectedMove":33.8,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.2,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":7,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":42.9,"averageReturn":2.7,"medianReturn":0.0,"confidenceLow":15.8,"confidenceHigh":75.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":6,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":24.8,"medianReturn":8.3,"confidenceLow":18.8,"confidenceHigh":81.2,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":6,"expectedCount":4,"expectedPercent":66.7,"averageReturn":44.9,"medianReturn":11.3,"confidenceLow":30.0,"confidenceHigh":90.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":1.0,"sample":7},{"week":2,"averageReturn":2.5,"sample":7},{"week":3,"averageReturn":1.8,"sample":7},{"week":4,"averageReturn":2.7,"sample":7},{"week":5,"averageReturn":5.5,"sample":7},{"week":6,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":7},{"week":7,"averageReturn":3.2,"sample":7},{"week":8,"averageReturn":4.5,"sample":7},{"week":9,"averageReturn":5.4,"sample":7},{"week":10,"averageReturn":4.6,"sample":7},{"week":11,"averageReturn":16.2,"sample":6},{"week":12,"averageReturn":24.8,"sample":6},{"week":13,"averageReturn":30.1,"sample":6},{"week":14,"averageReturn":29.6,"sample":6},{"week":15,"averageReturn":29.7,"sample":6},{"week":16,"averageReturn":30.8,"sample":6},{"week":17,"averageReturn":36.7,"sample":6},{"week":18,"averageReturn":42.8,"sample":6},{"week":19,"averageReturn":41.1,"sample":6},{"week":20,"averageReturn":38.4,"sample":6},{"week":21,"averageReturn":38.5,"sample":6},{"week":22,"averageReturn":43.6,"sample":6},{"week":23,"averageReturn":38.7,"sample":6},{"week":24,"averageReturn":45.5,"sample":6},{"week":25,"averageReturn":40.9,"sample":6},{"week":26,"averageReturn":44.9,"sample":6}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":1,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-18.8,"medianReturn":-18.8,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-13.6,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-5.3,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-22.5,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-18.8,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-29.7,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-16.1,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-15.0,"sample":1},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying support lags price","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"This is a downside risk watch, not a completed reversal. Stronger Market Dynamics or weaker price is needed to close the gap.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":0.0,"averageReturn":6.0,"sample":3},"nowContext":{"label":"Slightly easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 0.0% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 6.0% across 3 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 111.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 3.8% across 3 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 2.0 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-10-10","price":2800.0}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-06-12","price":7830.0},{"date":"2026-07-03","price":7346.680176}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2026-06-26","price":8500.0}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[933.16,933.16,1051.11,1051.11,1115.03,1115.03,1115.03,1308.61,1308.61,1308.61,1308.61,1308.61,1432.14,1432.14,1432.14,1477.42,1813.0,1739.29,1739.29,1756.45,1756.45,1756.45,1999.0,1799.2,1799.2,1799.2,1765.01,1765.01,1765.01,1341.59,1341.59,1341.59,1341.59,1193.55,1159.14,1167.76,1167.76,1167.76,1546.5699,1560.54,1602.0,1391.0,1370.0,1440.0,1417.0,1519.37,1519.37,1519.37,1616.0,1686.71,1686.71,1751.0,1702.0,1702.0,2172.5901,2480.46,2490.0,2490.0,2490.0,2800.0,3220.0,3306.0,3306.0,3600.0,3550.0,3432.03,3740.0,3740.0,3995.0,3849.0,4300.0,4287.0498,4119.0,4456.0,4008.0901,4440.0,4543.0,4975.0,5770.0,6222.8999,5464.0,6023.9102,6900.0,7371.0,6575.0,8560.0098,8409.5,9090.0,8915.0,9387.0,9700.0,10065.0,9479.0,8567.0,7830.0,7470.0,8500.0,7346.6802,8050.0,6585.0,6900.0,5975.0,7134.8999,7221.0],"consensus":[49.7269,37.359,90.3939,54.209,85.0865,52.8916,52.7107,86.9738,53.0937,54.8525,54.5119,42.518,86.563,52.0764,53.4965,84.5294,85.9674,17.9703,49.769,54.688,30.3984,41.9223,83.4253,0.0,32.3389,30.8919,-13.0056,10.8756,8.5848,-65.6183,-45.7837,-46.0498,-45.9357,-73.8131,-77.931,-29.8378,-46.4265,-40.2047,53.8228,36.3392,69.6834,-35.8591,-43.5597,30.2775,-26.4866,40.0118,29.6244,27.5606,68.951,64.5534,39.5427,47.3828,10.4235,29.9302,86.0306,93.5911,63.4117,49.3191,48.8942,86.2365,95.6896,84.9284,49.9123,94.4648,21.785,23.2962,91.4753,44.5704,90.783,18.6788,72.7111,44.7064,0.0,80.429,-30.9226,65.3035,64.7102,51.0925,85.8968,78.4408,0.0,79.0998,76.8924,60.9867,0.0,83.1733,50.4557,75.5067,50.2075,50.8197,34.9722,69.7759,0.0,-25.4113,-35.8032,-38.3694,13.7678,-45.7511,0.0,-70.428,-19.4511,-68.5564,0.0,-0.705],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[9.9506,30.8488,82.6305,96.5528,65.5463,39.9253,39.4262,96.5257,97.5181,81.7015,40.3763,95.9355,5.7521,22.1995,94.2492,38.8259,93.7927,10.5574,65.4606,42.5773,0.0,83.0195,-25.6029,66.478,68.6738,35.5108,90.578,90.8981,0.0,81.0225,74.5218,61.9378,0.0,90.4344,53.1903,82.9083,57.2817,46.0931,17.2992,77.4829,0.0,-29.1744,-33.6207,-34.5895,32.3846,-44.3443,0.0,-65.2417,-6.259,-77.9292,0.0,-1.275],"force":[29.4929,2.3934,99.4464,99.7283,26.1276,10.44,10.4233,66.1146,99.9019,83.9859,10.4399,98.949,44.3272,49.9683,98.9437,8.1293,97.9836,45.9254,78.7488,5.1316,0.0,94.0155,-94.6601,86.0467,67.6028,58.9239,97.3934,60.8172,0.0,93.1223,87.9421,42.4514,0.0,84.566,15.9558,64.9537,10.0455,34.6687,14.7911,60.6509,0.0,-51.2916,-33.4893,-24.6563,17.894,-37.2352,0.0,-93.0615,-13.8681,-54.6859,0.0,-10.5876],"direction":[62.2198,48.5495,80.3339,85.8224,87.6038,87.8257,87.1941,88.8502,90.5911,89.2894,89.0053,89.5812,87.3314,76.8814,82.9707,77.1649,82.2001,74.1061,76.6846,75.4074,0.0,67.7637,-8.5246,49.1446,58.1142,63.3062,72.3351,76.7923,0.0,66.8864,71.709,73.1392,0.0,73.8801,71.9732,74.5857,70.8099,67.7579,69.5851,67.4856,0.0,-2.6248,-39.9501,-52.4843,10.4557,-53.4418,0.0,-60.1884,-58.3271,-67.752,0.0,-4.091],"intensity":[46.1538,46.1538,100.0,96.1538,86.5385,30.7692,25.0,86.5385,92.3077,76.9231,80.7692,80.7692,75.0,59.6154,82.6923,82.6923,73.0769,53.8462,94.2308,48.0769,84.6154,82.6923,92.3077,90.3846,90.3846,100.0,100.0,96.1538,100.0,92.3077,100.0,92.3077,98.0769,100.0,50.0,86.5385,80.7692,94.2308,86.5385,78.8462,76.9231,98.0769,96.1538,53.8462,90.3846,96.1538,80.7692,98.0769,82.6923,82.6923,94.2308,71.1538],"confirmation":[33.5108,54.0578,95.9905,98.091,87.123,82.7404,82.618,94.8256,98.7212,95.1975,82.9143,98.343,14.6571,38.5653,97.4574,81.2395,97.2241,36.5961,91.562,58.4657,13.468,94.1119,36.404,89.5114,88.735,84.8257,95.766,92.3741,37.5294,93.71,92.9784,86.9364,34.4048,94.5473,83.0527,91.7278,82.7346,83.8421,78.8454,89.9327,35.4001,54.1963,79.4197,79.9179,29.145,82.4023,25.1367,91.3058,8.3685,89.3725,33.084,24.3684],"persistence":[100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,87.5,87.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,50.0,62.5,62.5,50.0,37.5],"assessmentRisk":[34.5103,5.3977,6.9354,3.2013,18.2926,25.339,24.3969,5.3415,2.134,7.5279,25.0346,2.7557,36.43,17.3908,3.2101,11.3352,4.113,39.6939,13.2852,27.2296,26.0789,9.5559,25.9516,6.6759,13.996,22.2711,7.05,10.7778,48.3474,9.7273,10.8517,18.8524,44.5613,8.338,23.3049,11.5702,24.7654,15.9258,30.0434,9.4951,31.9086,27.2409,31.2553,30.7032,48.8841,21.9901,16.5456,5.8322,38.9769,13.0161,42.5114,32.0206],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-0.7,"control":-1.3,"force":-10.6,"direction":-4.1,"confirmation":24.4,"persistence":37.5,"assessmentRisk":32.0,"intensity":71.2,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Control support is limited","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Commitment is limited","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-0.7","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-1.3","detail":"Control support is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-10.6","detail":"Commitment is 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