{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"AVY Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"c32cb882-aeac-4bd3-9bb4-ea281439af10","symbol":"AVY","name":"Avery Dennison Corp","exchange":"NYSE","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Consumer Cyclical","industry":"Packaging & Containers"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":16,"completedEpisodes":15,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":9.8,"averageExpectedMove":10.2,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":8.1,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":15,"expectedCount":10,"expectedPercent":66.7,"averageReturn":1.2,"medianReturn":2.4,"confidenceLow":41.7,"confidenceHigh":84.8,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":15,"expectedCount":12,"expectedPercent":80.0,"averageReturn":6.1,"medianReturn":7.8,"confidenceLow":54.8,"confidenceHigh":93.0,"confidence":"Historically consistent"},{"weeks":26,"sample":14,"expectedCount":11,"expectedPercent":78.6,"averageReturn":9.0,"medianReturn":9.4,"confidenceLow":52.4,"confidenceHigh":92.4,"confidence":"Historically consistent"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":16},{"week":2,"averageReturn":2.5,"sample":16},{"week":3,"averageReturn":2.1,"sample":16},{"week":4,"averageReturn":1.2,"sample":15},{"week":5,"averageReturn":1.2,"sample":15},{"week":6,"averageReturn":1.7,"sample":15},{"week":7,"averageReturn":1.7,"sample":15},{"week":8,"averageReturn":3.1,"sample":15},{"week":9,"averageReturn":3.7,"sample":15},{"week":10,"averageReturn":4.4,"sample":15},{"week":11,"averageReturn":4.7,"sample":15},{"week":12,"averageReturn":6.1,"sample":15},{"week":13,"averageReturn":5.8,"sample":15},{"week":14,"averageReturn":4.9,"sample":15},{"week":15,"averageReturn":3.3,"sample":15},{"week":16,"averageReturn":3.6,"sample":15},{"week":17,"averageReturn":3.0,"sample":15},{"week":18,"averageReturn":3.7,"sample":15},{"week":19,"averageReturn":5.8,"sample":15},{"week":20,"averageReturn":5.7,"sample":15},{"week":21,"averageReturn":6.1,"sample":15},{"week":22,"averageReturn":7.2,"sample":15},{"week":23,"averageReturn":7.8,"sample":15},{"week":24,"averageReturn":8.4,"sample":14},{"week":25,"averageReturn":8.9,"sample":14},{"week":26,"averageReturn":9.0,"sample":14}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":3,"completedEpisodes":3,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":14.7,"averageExpectedMove":13.0,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":12.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":3,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-5.3,"medianReturn":-5.9,"confidenceLow":43.9,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":3,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-13.0,"medianReturn":-14.7,"confidenceLow":43.9,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":3,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-18.9,"medianReturn":-20.2,"confidenceLow":43.9,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.8,"sample":3},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-2.5,"sample":3},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-2.4,"sample":3},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-5.3,"sample":3},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-4.9,"sample":3},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-5.5,"sample":3},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-5.6,"sample":3},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-5.3,"sample":3},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-7.5,"sample":3},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-9.1,"sample":3},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-10.3,"sample":3},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-13.0,"sample":3},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-12.3,"sample":3},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-11.3,"sample":3},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-11.7,"sample":3},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-12.7,"sample":3},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-14.8,"sample":3},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-15.2,"sample":3},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-16.3,"sample":3},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-15.4,"sample":3},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-14.5,"sample":3},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-14.8,"sample":3},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-16.7,"sample":3},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-18.4,"sample":3},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-19.5,"sample":3},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-18.9,"sample":3}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"positive","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":80.0,"averageReturn":6.1,"sample":15},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 80.0% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of 6.1% across 15 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 66.7% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 6 cases. Distinct visits lasted 3.5 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 10.2% across 15 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 8.1 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-08-08","price":167.03276},{"date":"2025-11-07","price":171.179946},{"date":"2026-07-31","price":169.73}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2024-10-25","price":199.693804}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2024-08-23","price":210.309813},{"date":"2024-09-27","price":214.326706},{"date":"2024-10-11","price":210.172041}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[210.3098,212.9981,209.0924,211.5119,203.9545,214.3267,206.856,210.172,209.4973,199.6938,198.6816,197.7177,190.6037,195.2885,198.5274,196.0423,188.917,182.1306,182.4985,179.1875,178.9649,185.2188,185.4125,179.8071,173.4369,175.8185,178.4808,181.9757,178.9313,173.7757,169.8262,170.9838,165.6141,165.0596,166.1978,166.1005,166.7523,167.511,178.2212,172.7153,172.8904,175.8924,170.7781,171.5995,171.7462,179.1879,178.1807,174.6505,173.8584,162.1531,167.0328,170.915,174.5527,167.8542,165.2697,162.8997,161.6508,158.0811,160.7264,156.0356,156.7928,178.5751,171.9863,171.1799,170.0392,167.6299,169.5082,177.2967,180.5296,179.0961,180.4703,180.3714,186.2639,186.511,185.3049,183.4066,189.3386,193.58,194.6873,194.1237,178.495,169.6815,160.1328,166.7106,170.3771,170.069,171.3806,164.4451,161.9909,162.4678,155.2143,158.6423,158.0561,155.18,159.25,158.68,165.76,166.97,160.71,160.41,160.9,169.73,177.18,178.93],"consensus":[33.4024,34.4036,-9.5848,23.7629,-48.0661,45.3289,-33.3042,18.562,0.0,-55.4913,-36.732,-35.7277,-63.9835,0.0,0.0,-32.5393,-53.2117,-65.177,-31.5997,-48.9521,-44.4457,14.7603,-10.9546,-41.8286,-60.846,-20.8368,0.0,18.9188,-20.6677,-39.131,-50.715,-27.6497,-57.8641,-22.4084,-17.5829,-21.9528,0.0,0.0,58.0137,-13.5329,0.0,35.8484,-34.1843,0.0,0.0,49.7852,14.752,0.0,0.0,-61.1779,0.0,9.375,24.0849,-27.5611,-22.5074,-37.0477,-40.3216,-46.2878,0.0,-55.6873,-19.2567,62.7985,0.0,20.1993,9.6563,-14.5298,15.5934,58.3351,48.3631,15.4247,39.673,26.4368,58.2581,34.29,32.1739,9.5907,50.7186,52.5119,45.0617,31.319,-54.0646,-64.7756,-72.6118,-15.2834,-13.584,-13.9081,0.0,-49.6733,-42.7398,-23.739,-65.5275,0.0,-31.4069,-38.0932,12.4921,-22.1504,38.8821,31.0612,-24.646,0.0,0.0,36.8185,57.821,40.7169],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[27.1742,-40.6064,-24.0575,-37.7746,-40.3941,-46.3053,0.0,-61.2274,-14.8569,50.9842,0.0,13.7048,1.3368,-6.4481,22.2341,56.9929,45.4203,3.6726,39.5228,27.5198,59.0992,32.2264,34.6334,4.5442,46.6238,54.9222,48.2617,26.9068,-50.7263,-64.7607,-75.4728,-7.3583,-6.1961,-13.7346,0.0,-57.0068,-40.0869,-18.6533,-68.4455,0.0,-34.1211,-35.2802,10.6132,-28.282,35.556,30.6567,-28.5314,0.0,0.0,28.0529,58.0761,36.8247],"force":[33.1993,-44.5244,-18.3016,-31.7217,-33.9403,-42.1717,0.0,-57.725,-4.7572,93.3395,0.0,5.3967,4.7785,-28.5067,20.5334,79.9131,47.6674,12.4021,24.984,8.6423,66.7234,12.0834,12.4765,12.4215,69.4245,48.1758,25.9277,9.2359,-82.951,-77.8339,-80.074,-30.389,-13.9341,-0.5184,0.0,-54.1215,-38.2412,-3.0021,-70.6392,0.0,-16.2701,-29.3653,49.3088,-16.3642,66.9272,32.3477,-44.3635,0.0,0.0,65.4168,64.8453,28.3105],"direction":[14.044,-0.5357,-23.74,-40.0212,-44.7968,-49.208,0.0,-47.9004,-41.4378,54.4854,0.0,38.1948,32.5303,-13.7826,4.4754,44.4563,52.2232,48.732,50.3368,37.9096,51.2503,52.5103,43.4326,31.0812,42.037,52.8546,55.0717,52.1351,-37.2468,-55.4654,-64.012,-56.9639,-41.6832,-24.4111,0.0,-38.1148,-48.985,-44.3632,-58.5413,0.0,-39.117,-47.5422,11.6581,-19.2759,22.651,30.6044,-6.1216,0.0,0.0,26.4088,52.5121,54.0267],"intensity":[28.8462,63.4615,73.0769,7.6923,1.9231,53.8462,19.2308,46.1538,9.6154,100.0,98.0769,63.4615,1.9231,50.0,7.6923,78.8462,40.3846,82.6923,11.5385,1.9231,63.4615,69.2308,40.3846,11.5385,76.9231,44.2308,38.4615,17.3077,98.0769,98.0769,84.6154,65.3846,40.3846,1.9231,19.2308,75.0,30.7692,36.5385,78.8462,28.8462,55.7692,44.2308,36.5385,59.6154,75.0,46.1538,65.3846,25.0,25.0,98.0769,90.3846,53.8462],"confirmation":[75.9379,54.4711,75.0506,79.6819,80.7073,82.6864,7.0573,85.7976,51.8455,89.2063,33.3668,51.4449,26.7889,50.532,50.3726,87.3453,83.4998,6.9127,80.25,75.901,86.8878,78.3275,77.6579,5.125,84.8624,84.6349,81.7878,77.4163,86.2319,89.1264,91.4196,10.1025,6.5934,49.4575,26.1592,83.9193,81.5801,52.3753,89.0801,7.9107,77.5475,79.9667,30.3019,74.8184,81.3476,77.9849,53.7618,24.6406,24.6661,80.787,86.7129,88.7106],"persistence":[37.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,62.5,87.5,62.5,50.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,12.5,37.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,62.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,25.0,25.0,50.0],"assessmentRisk":[4.7971,54.1429,5.601,27.828,29.3357,24.9969,36.7547,17.5948,29.9088,18.1284,47.6856,38.5549,42.9697,38.6736,25.4693,6.1516,21.2423,38.7896,26.3949,8.0275,5.8522,23.2117,27.8174,33.6038,11.6944,22.5199,27.2799,34.2464,21.4327,17.5918,13.6929,42.3387,35.4883,10.0448,43.5044,8.0169,21.6511,30.3766,16.7844,33.3043,12.5582,26.0779,28.6071,11.5521,28.4503,34.2369,29.0139,22.9936,40.4577,9.2759,20.987,29.6289],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":40.7,"control":36.8,"force":28.3,"direction":54.0,"confirmation":88.7,"persistence":50.0,"assessmentRisk":29.6,"intensity":53.8,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint upward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the upward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same upward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has broad support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+40.7","detail":"Joint upward confirmation","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+36.8","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+28.3","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+54.0","detail":"Upward 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