{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"CCL Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"c3db1998-fadd-44e3-87db-d70bb15c645e","symbol":"CCL","name":"Carnival Corporation","exchange":"NYSE","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Consumer Cyclical","industry":"Travel Services"},"summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. The upward price structure is leading its underlying support.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Range pressure and compression, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Directional strength and control."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. The upward price structure is leading its underlying support.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Price ahead of underlying support","headline":"The upward price response is leading Market Dynamics","summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. The upward price structure is leading its underlying support.","take":"Treat the gap as an early-downside risk watch. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":18,"completedEpisodes":17,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":11.2,"averageExpectedMove":13.1,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":4.6,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":18,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":38.9,"averageReturn":-2.4,"medianReturn":-4.5,"confidenceLow":20.3,"confidenceHigh":61.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":17,"expectedCount":8,"expectedPercent":47.1,"averageReturn":-1.6,"medianReturn":-2.8,"confidenceLow":26.2,"confidenceHigh":69.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":16,"expectedCount":8,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":0.6,"medianReturn":1.2,"confidenceLow":28.0,"confidenceHigh":72.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-2.8,"sample":18},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-2.4,"sample":18},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-4.2,"sample":18},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-2.4,"sample":18},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":18},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-1.2,"sample":17},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-0.8,"sample":17},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-2.3,"sample":17},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-1.6,"sample":17},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-3.3,"sample":17},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-4.3,"sample":17},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-1.6,"sample":17},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-3.6,"sample":17},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-6.8,"sample":17},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-4.5,"sample":17},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-1.6,"sample":17},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-4.7,"sample":17},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":17},{"week":19,"averageReturn":2.1,"sample":17},{"week":20,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":17},{"week":21,"averageReturn":3.6,"sample":17},{"week":22,"averageReturn":4.8,"sample":17},{"week":23,"averageReturn":4.2,"sample":17},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":16},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-0.8,"sample":16},{"week":26,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":16}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":29.1,"averageExpectedMove":29.1,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":5.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-23.8,"medianReturn":-23.8,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-21.2,"medianReturn":-21.2,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-13.8,"medianReturn":-13.8,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-6.1,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-5.4,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-6.7,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-23.8,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-29.1,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-28.7,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-28.5,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-24.2,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-17.3,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-13.6,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-19.7,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-21.2,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-22.0,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-27.2,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-22.7,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-16.6,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-18.5,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-13.2,"sample":1},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-8.2,"sample":1},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-13.6,"sample":1},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-17.4,"sample":1},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-20.6,"sample":1},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-21.9,"sample":1},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-22.1,"sample":1},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-17.7,"sample":1},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-13.8,"sample":1}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Price ahead of underlying support","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-downside risk watch. Stronger Market Dynamics would confirm the price move; a weaker price response would confirm that the gap is closing through correction.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":60.0,"averageReturn":12.5,"sample":15},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 60.0% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 12.5% across 15 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 3.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 15.9% across 15 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.3 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2026-02-06","price":33.627777}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[16.433,16.3242,15.503,17.0761,18.7975,18.3424,17.828,20.2123,21.0928,20.6872,21.6666,23.8135,24.0509,24.6346,25.159,26.3264,25.624,26.5144,24.8127,24.1202,24.0114,25.5745,25.1491,27.3751,26.4649,25.9505,22.9725,23.675,20.42,19.7077,20.7168,19.6582,16.3242,17.452,17.7983,18.4018,19.3614,19.9748,23.1407,22.0129,22.9725,24.0213,22.1712,23.5167,26.9695,29.6407,28.3546,29.2351,29.433,28.7602,28.0677,29.4429,30.9664,31.5502,31.2336,31.1742,30.1948,30.2937,28.2655,27.3949,28.0083,29.0867,28.5228,26.4451,25.7427,26.277,25.5053,25.5943,27.3257,30.7884,30.3728,30.5905,31.7876,28.6118,28.2458,29.7001,33.6278,31.5798,31.7985,31.3612,25.6356,23.8464,23.9756,24.0452,25.4865,27.8125,29.0451,27.0074,26.5004,26.2221,24.4925,25.98,28.06,27.41,29.18,30.87,29.07,27.7663,26.6919,26.2741,26.1945,27.6668,28.99,28.12],"consensus":[25.56,0.0,-21.457,48.0312,65.9025,20.014,10.1034,70.8651,57.0477,24.0075,45.7027,73.9771,38.6564,52.8077,48.4846,60.9062,22.3473,57.4069,-10.9717,-10.566,0.0,40.5492,0.0,61.3868,13.82,0.0,-58.4486,-12.2215,-69.6861,-37.0106,-12.3372,-58.3312,-75.8821,-11.2879,-28.9216,-12.4155,18.092,18.8281,65.6879,0.0,39.2756,53.7221,-24.2673,44.5545,72.8836,74.505,11.1295,58.9263,33.2408,0.0,0.0,42.2788,57.667,43.0201,34.9486,24.6238,-10.1698,0.0,-49.166,-43.3379,-10.9571,10.7133,-12.3246,-49.4424,-42.1048,-11.1506,-39.5068,-18.1386,29.3467,65.722,13.1823,36.2564,52.5701,-42.3773,-11.5866,22.573,69.8459,0.0,21.095,10.3906,-70.0652,-62.0264,-43.8645,-43.4065,0.0,36.7117,37.3546,-17.4052,0.0,-17.0838,-51.2169,10.2188,37.5059,0.0,48.2864,46.8196,0.0,-16.0765,-25.5451,-25.5804,-17.242,18.0028,30.1117,2.9035],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[64.4857,40.5684,32.6101,19.811,-9.9058,0.0,-40.3888,-42.6885,-3.6665,18.9521,-11.546,-47.9072,-39.7585,-1.6136,-32.051,-13.6633,29.086,63.7806,0.7929,36.0404,52.0415,-40.3121,-3.2497,28.0063,72.1428,0.0,11.9212,4.5807,-67.4625,-58.318,-45.6823,-42.5145,0.0,31.0997,33.2102,-27.3164,0.0,-12.0736,-51.1529,15.9417,39.9779,0.0,44.9811,43.9886,0.0,-23.8721,-22.3512,-21.4623,-10.4715,21.5752,26.9232,3.5423],"force":[54.5942,26.6572,11.3195,2.4805,-43.4909,0.0,-89.815,-46.1254,-4.8534,26.1141,-22.7177,-66.7311,-35.2716,-15.9757,-36.4171,-2.5765,59.9087,93.2566,12.6535,21.4549,52.7337,-80.1134,-8.344,40.1126,93.3574,0.0,6.6876,5.1004,-94.9069,-69.2622,-16.707,-22.4674,0.0,70.8758,50.3184,-36.4402,0.0,-15.2781,-58.5611,41.1101,53.0175,0.0,62.7345,44.127,0.0,-30.1052,-29.6741,-19.822,-8.0987,34.1065,32.2822,10.0251],"direction":[52.0692,57.5099,54.4992,45.9407,-13.3294,0.0,-30.1621,-42.0891,-30.5825,9.7032,-5.7909,-38.8478,-49.6673,-45.1142,-50.2347,-38.0498,7.8147,48.2733,45.7956,47.0757,53.0574,-17.7832,-23.4307,3.8352,50.427,0.0,41.8705,28.0955,-55.2957,-61.0962,-61.1852,-59.3823,0.0,18.7224,32.8312,-7.5184,0.0,-24.0996,-46.0441,18.387,23.6009,0.0,41.7437,51.9782,0.0,-2.8532,-26.2461,-34.3998,-31.5106,2.4175,32.2053,19.5048],"intensity":[59.6154,80.7692,1.9231,3.8462,30.7692,1.9231,73.0769,90.3846,9.6154,30.7692,15.3846,76.9231,40.3846,25.0,13.4615,15.3846,75.0,94.2308,82.6923,63.4615,59.6154,86.5385,82.6923,76.9231,94.2308,67.3077,3.8462,50.0,100.0,80.7692,55.7692,25.0,51.9231,76.9231,71.1538,67.3077,57.6923,11.5385,65.3846,50.0,86.5385,11.5385,59.6154,96.1538,82.6923,48.0769,73.0769,23.0769,15.3846,50.0,57.6923,34.6154],"confirmation":[86.2559,81.3051,78.4991,52.6114,29.7841,25.2704,85.1057,81.963,26.8376,28.5087,49.6058,84.3718,81.3011,6.6884,80.6616,51.1242,55.6597,89.8998,6.3191,79.1543,84.8355,82.7423,49.0693,53.0084,91.0322,33.3725,51.7845,26.6962,91.2176,88.1255,81.1813,81.2655,7.6743,80.8745,80.4117,52.936,24.5551,73.4881,84.6142,30.7135,80.4369,3.1736,83.9423,82.9433,30.648,51.3953,76.3489,76.073,73.3419,51.5306,77.7505,2.5399],"persistence":[75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,50.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,12.5,12.5,37.5,25.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,0.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,25.0],"assessmentRisk":[10.2459,26.3519,31.1713,30.9081,20.3317,44.1379,25.1538,28.2905,43.5299,47.1738,18.827,9.6708,27.651,44.1681,30.1184,27.3881,30.2218,16.9395,43.2838,31.8162,23.5982,22.4937,37.7741,36.1638,3.6926,47.0894,37.1341,30.1525,14.798,18.7844,27.97,28.1412,3.8747,28.1353,30.1826,51.3561,23.9109,25.0284,23.487,28.6947,12.6179,33.8689,25.75,26.4939,31.9215,19.2201,33.9792,37.0576,40.1315,12.6291,31.3134,42.7197],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":2.9,"control":3.5,"force":10.0,"direction":19.5,"confirmation":2.5,"persistence":25.0,"assessmentRisk":42.7,"intensity":34.6,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Price structure has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the price-technical view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics disagree. The completed evidence gives the upward price structure stronger support.","take":"Current assessment: price structure remains primary, but the disagreement lowers confirmation.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure","direction":"upward","disagreement":true},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Control support is limited","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Commitment is limited","forcePath":"Broadly stable","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Present","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+2.9","detail":"Price structure has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+3.5","detail":"Control support is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+10.0","detail":"Commitment is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+19.5","detail":"Upward 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