{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"GKP Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"c5d974e5-44cd-4587-bb90-1588f0e4c8c0","symbol":"GKP","name":"Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited","exchange":"LSE","country":"GB","asset_type":"equity","currency":"GBP","sector":"Energy","industry":"Oil & Gas E&P"},"summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":19,"completedEpisodes":19,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":9.5,"averageExpectedMove":14.8,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.7,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":19,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":47.4,"averageReturn":-1.1,"medianReturn":-2.2,"confidenceLow":27.3,"confidenceHigh":68.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":19,"expectedCount":8,"expectedPercent":42.1,"averageReturn":-0.8,"medianReturn":-2.7,"confidenceLow":23.1,"confidenceHigh":63.7,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":18,"expectedCount":14,"expectedPercent":77.8,"averageReturn":6.8,"medianReturn":14.0,"confidenceLow":54.8,"confidenceHigh":91.0,"confidence":"Historically consistent"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":2.0,"sample":19},{"week":2,"averageReturn":2.2,"sample":19},{"week":3,"averageReturn":0.1,"sample":19},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":19},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-1.5,"sample":19},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-2.5,"sample":19},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-3.3,"sample":19},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":19},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":19},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":19},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-2.3,"sample":19},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-0.8,"sample":19},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-0.0,"sample":19},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-0.8,"sample":19},{"week":15,"averageReturn":0.9,"sample":19},{"week":16,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":19},{"week":17,"averageReturn":2.0,"sample":19},{"week":18,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":19},{"week":19,"averageReturn":2.8,"sample":19},{"week":20,"averageReturn":4.0,"sample":19},{"week":21,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":18},{"week":22,"averageReturn":3.4,"sample":18},{"week":23,"averageReturn":4.1,"sample":18},{"week":24,"averageReturn":5.6,"sample":18},{"week":25,"averageReturn":5.6,"sample":18},{"week":26,"averageReturn":6.8,"sample":18}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":23.0,"averageExpectedMove":23.0,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":12.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-18.4,"medianReturn":-18.4,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-23.0,"medianReturn":-23.0,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-7.3,"medianReturn":-7.3,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-4.3,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-11.1,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-18.9,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-18.4,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-17.3,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-20.5,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-19.8,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-20.5,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-21.6,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-19.5,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-20.9,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-23.0,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-20.5,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-19.9,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-19.6,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-14.9,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-17.8,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-16.9,"sample":1},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-16.7,"sample":1},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-9.8,"sample":1},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-3.9,"sample":1},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-4.6,"sample":1},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-9.6,"sample":1},{"week":24,"averageReturn":2.5,"sample":1},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-4.1,"sample":1},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-7.3,"sample":1}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Repair in progress","tone":"caution","headline":"Market Dynamics is repairing while price remains rotational","use":"The repair is constructive, but price has not yet established a clear response.","confirm":"Treat the repair as constructive context until price confirms it.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics remains below zero, but it has improved across the recent completed path. This is an early repair watch until price confirms it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"sample":0},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has no clear direction","detail":"Price remains rotational while the Market Dynamics condition develops."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 4.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 14.8% across 19 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.7 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-03-27","price":209.956039}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2025-09-26","price":218.954163}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-16","2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[126.4879,127.6859,125.7891,114.508,117.8025,114.8075,115.8058,127.2866,134.774,126.9557,128.9535,128.3541,134.2474,143.6367,143.437,148.0318,138.9421,140.0408,133.0488,140.4404,160.8172,153.5255,166.2111,155.5232,170.4064,179.5959,177.3984,194.3791,189.9841,184.5902,192.9807,204.7673,201.3712,157.2958,153.0985,153.4983,157.2958,153.898,154.6975,155.0972,151.2997,158.6948,156.4963,158.6948,159.8941,153.0985,175.4837,165.6902,169.2878,165.6902,161.8927,168.2885,171.4864,183.8782,193.4718,182.0794,168.9646,174.7634,218.9542,209.4561,194.5593,177.5628,178.5626,181.1621,174.1635,175.5632,173.9636,171.5641,176.1631,173.1637,168.5647,174.1635,175.3633,175.9632,186.361,179.9623,181.9619,182.3618,197.5586,210.4559,208.9563,197.9586,224.453,209.956,202.9575,194.8,184.6,191.2,193.4,185.0,190.0,186.6,172.6,181.6,174.4,182.0,177.6,173.6,171.0,174.6,176.8,170.8,174.4,179.8],"consensus":[0.0,-8.5999,-13.2825,-54.396,-8.4094,-39.4646,-15.0462,39.4037,45.5056,-13.253,15.5099,0.0,25.4928,55.8949,27.4997,44.9253,-10.9347,12.4065,-28.7811,25.3349,69.7008,0.0,63.4742,0.0,61.4439,50.8751,15.0076,75.358,25.5718,11.7576,56.8233,63.7289,16.5593,-63.0565,-37.423,-28.1117,-16.6517,-29.3007,-11.8184,-18.2978,-30.9859,14.1677,-14.4801,0.0,0.0,-33.1713,55.235,-16.4921,20.6105,0.0,-19.8359,26.0482,26.6895,56.0441,58.1157,0.0,-36.0785,10.6084,71.1116,0.0,-8.2052,-35.1265,-14.5338,0.0,-37.3287,0.0,-22.0668,-24.2105,9.9523,-22.3187,-31.4181,9.9492,0.0,0.0,49.015,0.0,18.6533,9.2537,54.824,64.8018,33.9211,10.8847,67.994,-9.5402,-13.4193,-21.9033,-46.0038,0.0,0.0,-37.6164,8.0897,-25.3238,-57.8746,-16.7125,-34.3312,0.0,0.0,-33.0535,-23.9785,-11.0929,0.0,-29.9857,0.0,-18.7684],"supportDates":["2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[35.1673,57.4122,58.6584,0.0,-35.8281,16.4844,66.0506,0.0,-21.3701,-42.1488,-7.1694,0.0,-37.419,0.0,-23.686,-23.2998,13.1939,-25.8401,-34.5734,13.7204,0.0,0.0,49.5067,0.0,17.6159,5.2984,52.7632,60.5615,31.0417,13.7732,62.1441,-5.9277,-14.4769,-24.0223,-44.2963,0.0,0.0,-40.0165,7.9992,-28.4922,-57.9603,-19.7781,-33.135,0.0,0.0,-36.7255,-25.9827,-7.3475,0.0,-33.3959,0.0,-19.8228],"force":[25.6913,65.8363,59.7815,0.0,-74.9345,22.82,94.8543,0.0,-52.0913,-63.6749,-7.2982,0.0,-43.2622,0.0,-21.2025,-18.1861,27.0311,-24.0724,-30.4595,24.3458,0.0,0.0,65.5085,0.0,21.3571,3.8043,72.8289,80.2355,6.3931,28.753,89.2714,-65.0544,-39.3385,-38.7119,-57.1259,0.0,0.0,-45.2025,23.5992,-26.5886,-68.3538,-3.814,-24.0227,0.0,0.0,-23.7964,-8.5215,-7.5675,0.0,-30.4813,0.0,-29.1278],"direction":[17.7136,47.4863,56.3056,0.0,-8.6105,4.8296,59.9366,0.0,-38.1875,-6.7092,-28.1184,0.0,-32.9873,0.0,-20.8338,-29.5544,5.9515,-17.0416,-28.4969,4.6439,0.0,0.0,36.6719,0.0,17.9077,17.6664,44.3187,58.6236,56.8746,35.8963,59.4816,-25.9844,-6.3033,-7.4753,-40.0108,0.0,0.0,-29.4549,2.8852,-20.7993,-50.2914,-22.4221,-43.0614,0.0,0.0,-35.4691,-32.7288,-28.7023,0.0,-25.7343,0.0,-10.1636],"intensity":[42.3077,82.6923,59.6154,73.0769,80.7692,65.3846,98.0769,96.1538,82.6923,84.6154,65.3846,5.7692,32.6923,25.0,34.6154,44.2308,19.2308,7.6923,23.0769,28.8462,7.6923,5.7692,63.4615,40.3846,15.3846,25.0,80.7692,80.7692,51.9231,90.3846,96.1538,76.9231,44.2308,55.7692,67.3077,42.3077,51.9231,53.8462,48.0769,17.3077,80.7692,67.3077,80.7692,42.3077,21.1538,17.3077,25.0,55.7692,63.4615,44.2308,13.4615,34.6154],"confirmation":[76.381,86.2117,86.6395,34.269,80.7331,50.041,91.5564,11.7881,34.5759,57.3368,27.2092,3.8506,80.1246,25.3872,75.0104,75.5776,50.2588,75.1418,77.9765,49.8891,0.8729,0.7607,84.18,28.389,74.0673,25.522,86.1238,89.2715,55.393,31.0317,90.4957,10.3431,51.746,52.8223,83.0862,5.1274,24.3883,80.2319,26.3449,76.0939,86.8379,50.2415,78.69,28.1063,25.2595,78.239,75.1715,27.3192,4.2296,77.5586,26.0897,74.3055],"persistence":[12.5,37.5,37.5,50.0,25.0,37.5,62.5,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,37.5,62.5,75.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,37.5,25.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,87.5,87.5,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,25.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,50.0,37.5],"assessmentRisk":[0.36,20.8128,20.892,49.3137,5.5773,41.4077,11.2733,45.1719,51.0054,26.3803,42.1611,45.7561,24.4238,3.3488,3.5778,16.1563,1.7414,2.8853,2.2862,13.3255,5.0279,21.9254,25.4609,45.3019,34.7345,40.4531,20.5059,17.5915,33.0183,43.1507,15.61,2.4349,18.1426,2.6222,26.884,45.2771,31.7279,15.4751,17.4586,7.1388,19.0349,6.386,27.2937,27.6813,32.5586,23.5823,10.435,34.4588,8.0587,5.2874,22.1534,24.2544],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-18.8,"control":-19.8,"force":-29.1,"direction":-10.2,"confirmation":74.3,"persistence":37.5,"assessmentRisk":24.3,"intensity":34.6,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-18.8","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-19.8","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-29.1","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-10.2","detail":"Follow-through is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"74/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"49.1","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"7.3%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"11.4","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"26%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price is rotating through its trend 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Market Dynamics construction and private inputs are not disclosed. Historical research is not a forecast or instruction to trade."}