{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"UPAL Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-21","ticker":{"uuid":"c627c738-8d1e-4d61-a2ee-3b75b929ec51","symbol":"UPAL","name":"PROSHARES ULTRA PALLADIUM K-1 FREE ETF","exchange":"NYSEARCA","country":"US","asset_type":"etf","currency":"USD","sector":null,"industry":null},"summary":"The completed price path and its progression through the positioning zones can be described, but there is not enough usable Market Dynamics history to confirm or challenge the technical state.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Completed returns and cumulative progression, Range expansion and closing direction, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Activity pressure and cumulative balance."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-21","observations":18,"displayedObservations":18,"assetType":"ETF","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"The completed price path and its progression through the positioning zones can be described, but there is not enough usable Market Dynamics history to confirm or challenge the technical state.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Evidence developing","headline":"Price structure is visible; Market Dynamics is not yet established","summary":"The completed price path and its progression through the positioning zones can be described, but there is not enough usable Market Dynamics history to confirm or challenge the technical state.","take":"Treat movement through the zones as price-location context only. Reaching the upper zone shows extension, but without an established Market Dynamics read it does not by itself establish active distribution, divergence or reversal risk.","tone":"neutral","conflict":false},"marketDynamics":{"available":true,"readAvailable":false,"dates":["2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"values":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"opens":[40.429566,35.20053,35.204817,36.526568,31.824915,30.698282,29.467758,23.031189,27.089065,24.207674,22.68,24.37,23.91,23.5777,24.22,22.87,27.59,25.4831],"highs":[40.429566,38.385315,38.072848,36.526568,31.834886,30.698282,29.594978,26.779988,28.863763,24.52014,24.35,24.879,25.9496,25.54,25.4611,27.7351,27.9,26.1299],"lows":[34.990568,34.447081,34.746187,31.924618,29.020793,28.115997,23.777858,22.393095,25.274985,20.8134,22.3099,22.638,22.98,22.8865,23.5802,22.87,25.0806,23.9218],"closes":[36.555008,37.534257,35.396345,32.169287,29.020793,29.166757,23.777858,25.465516,25.315663,22.5051,24.1734,24.4108,23.4322,22.8865,24.0807,27.7351,25.2427,26.1101],"hoverRows":[[{"label":"Open","value":"40.4","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"High","value":"40.4","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Low","value":"35.0","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Close","value":"36.6","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Market 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Dynamics","value":"Unavailable","note":"Insufficient completed history","className":"is-muted","wide":true},{"label":"Signal / event","value":"No event marker","className":"is-muted","wide":true}],[{"label":"Open","value":"24.4","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"High","value":"24.9","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Low","value":"22.6","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Close","value":"24.4","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Market Dynamics","value":"Unavailable","note":"Insufficient completed history","className":"is-muted","wide":true},{"label":"Signal / event","value":"No event marker","className":"is-muted","wide":true}],[{"label":"Open","value":"23.9","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"High","value":"25.9","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Low","value":"23.0","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Close","value":"23.4","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Market Dynamics","value":"Unavailable","note":"Insufficient completed history","className":"is-muted","wide":true},{"label":"Signal / event","value":"No event marker","className":"is-muted","wide":true}],[{"label":"Open","value":"23.6","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"High","value":"25.5","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Low","value":"22.9","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Close","value":"22.9","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Market Dynamics","value":"Unavailable","note":"Insufficient completed history","className":"is-muted","wide":true},{"label":"Signal / event","value":"No event marker","className":"is-muted","wide":true}],[{"label":"Open","value":"24.2","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"High","value":"25.5","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Low","value":"23.6","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Close","value":"24.1","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Market Dynamics","value":"Unavailable","note":"Insufficient completed history","className":"is-muted","wide":true},{"label":"Signal / event","value":"No event marker","className":"is-muted","wide":true}],[{"label":"Open","value":"22.9","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"High","value":"27.7","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Low","value":"22.9","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Close","value":"27.7","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Market Dynamics","value":"Unavailable","note":"Insufficient completed history","className":"is-muted","wide":true},{"label":"Signal / event","value":"No event marker","className":"is-muted","wide":true}],[{"label":"Open","value":"27.6","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"High","value":"27.9","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Low","value":"25.1","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Close","value":"25.2","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Market Dynamics","value":"Unavailable","note":"Insufficient completed history","className":"is-muted","wide":true},{"label":"Signal / event","value":"No event marker","className":"is-muted","wide":true}],[{"label":"Open","value":"25.5","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"High","value":"26.1","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Low","value":"23.9","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Close","value":"26.1","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Market Dynamics","value":"Unavailable","note":"Insufficient completed history","className":"is-muted","wide":true},{"label":"Signal / event","value":"No event marker","className":"is-muted","wide":true}]],"pressureRange":[-2.3,2.3],"priceRange":[21.603351,38.436006],"zones":{"accumulationBoundary":-1.5,"accumulationDarkBoundary":-2.0,"distributionBoundary":1.5,"distributionDarkBoundary":2.0},"state":"Insufficient history","context":{"scenario":"developing","latestDirection":"steady","fourWeekDirection":"steady","now":{"label":"Little changed this week","detail":"Market Dynamics remains positive and was little changed this week."},"fourWeek":{"label":"Broadly steady over four weeks","detail":"The broader path has not changed enough to establish a new direction."},"price":{"label":"Price and Market Dynamics are broadly aligned","detail":"The current price response is broadly consistent with the underlying Market Dynamics path."}},"diagnosis":{"label":"Zone progression","detail":"Price is travelling between the lower accumulation area and the upper positioning zone. Market Dynamics history is not yet sufficient to confirm or challenge that progression.","tone":"neutral"},"chartSummary":"Price is between the outer positioning zones. The Market Dynamics bars show whether underlying support is strengthening or weakening.","summary":"Price is travelling between the lower accumulation area and the upper positioning zone. Market Dynamics history is not yet sufficient to confirm or challenge that progression.","annotations":[{"label":"Current tape relationship","value":"Zone progression","detail":"Market Dynamics remains positive and was little changed this week.","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Price location","value":"Between zones","detail":"Price is progressing between the lower and upper positioning zones while the Market Dynamics read develops.","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Latest positioning marker","value":"None in view","detail":"Entering the lower zone alone does not create a positioning confirmation.","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Market Dynamics confirmation","value":"Unavailable","detail":"Too little usable Market Dynamics history is available for a directional confirmation read.","tone":"neutral"}],"relationshipEvidence":{"available":false,"observations":18,"summary":"More completed weekly history is needed for a dependable ticker-level record."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"reversal_warnings":[{"date":"2026-04-24","price":36.555008}],"reversal_dangers":[{"date":"2026-05-01","price":37.534257}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"close":[36.555,37.5343,35.3963,32.1693,29.0208,29.1668,23.7779,25.4655,25.3157,22.5051,24.1734,24.4108,23.4322,22.8865,24.0807,27.7351,25.2427,26.1101],"consensus":[-42.4732,56.7797,-60.9123,-51.8327,-66.9092,-37.8777,-68.9604,-15.9805,-44.463,-59.7149,0.0,-15.3827,-41.5895,-35.1573,-13.2308,47.3363,-24.2669,20.6599],"supportDates":["2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"control":[null,null,null,null,null,-31.2142,-75.9809,-6.8813,-46.7431,-47.0928,0.0,-10.0501,-40.5297,-44.4715,-18.3081,41.3854,-38.0605,18.8959],"force":[-42.4732,56.7797,-60.9123,-51.8327,-40.4227,-15.571,-50.9308,-37.2725,-24.7461,-68.7377,0.0,-8.5585,-37.6805,-24.4386,-10.828,81.1443,-37.5384,32.475],"direction":[null,null,null,null,-85.8281,-61.4266,-73.8153,-64.4176,-55.9408,-67.6954,0.0,-38.5779,-45.5928,-32.1687,-24.613,29.9888,-0.9769,14.2365],"intensity":[null,null,null,null,100.0,20.0,100.0,57.1429,62.5,77.7778,20.0,9.0909,16.6667,15.3846,35.7143,80.0,56.25,41.1765],"confirmation":[36.2581,40.8362,42.1586,39.2531,65.5335,79.5426,89.4109,11.5809,81.5925,87.5761,7.9819,28.7666,81.2057,78.7817,28.3999,84.2686,53.5014,55.0],"persistence":[null,null,33.3333,50.0,60.0,66.6667,71.4286,75.0,75.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,62.5,37.5],"assessmentRisk":[null,null,null,null,16.5307,31.0548,15.5178,41.6395,23.9785,19.9056,9.0696,14.2658,14.4934,26.7118,4.3902,20.4736,44.5942,34.3692],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":20.7,"control":18.9,"force":32.5,"direction":14.2,"confirmation":55.0,"persistence":37.5,"assessmentRisk":34.4,"intensity":41.2,"evidenceDepth":69},"analysis":{"status":"Completed tape has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Completed tape","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Broadly stable","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+20.7","detail":"Completed tape has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+18.9","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+32.5","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+14.2","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"55/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"51.6","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"14.9%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"-","detail":"Developing","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"27%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price is rotating through its trend references.","series":[{"label":"Close","values":[36.555,37.5343,35.3963,32.1693,29.0208,29.1668,23.7779,25.4655,25.3157,22.5051,24.1734,24.4108,23.4322,22.8865,24.0807,27.7351,25.2427,26.1101],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.1},{"label":"Fast trend","values":[null,null,null,null,34.4892,33.5215,31.7499,30.6073,29.6452,28.347,27.5882,27.0105,26.3599,25.7283,25.4288,25.8481,25.738,25.8057],"stroke":"#176fa3","width":1.7},{"label":"Slow trend","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,30.5781,30.0083,29.5693,29.4334,29.123,28.8998],"stroke":"#07865c","width":1.8},{"label":"Upper envelope","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,40.1146,39.6219,39.1229,38.708,38.3342,37.911,37.5882,37.2188,36.8897],"stroke":"#98a9b8","width":1.0,"dash":[6,5]},{"label":"Lower envelope","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,19.2667,18.7562,18.4589,18.0494,17.6386,17.541,17.865,17.9422,18.1078],"stroke":"#98a9b8","width":1.0,"dash":[6,5]}],"guides":[],"dates":["2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"]},{"key":"returns","eyebrow":"Observed return path","title":"Completed returns and cumulative progression","description":"Period returns are shown beside the total move recorded across the available tape.","reason":"Selected because direct returns remain fully observable while longer indicators develop.","series":[{"label":"Period return","values":[null,2.6788,-5.6959,-9.1169,-9.7873,0.503,-18.4762,7.0976,-0.5885,-11.1021,7.413,0.9821,-4.0089,-2.3288,5.2179,15.1756,-8.9864,3.4362],"stroke":"#176fa3","width":1.7},{"label":"Cumulative 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