{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"VGUARD Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"c9cb5129-4c9c-41ef-b41a-83b343d90676","symbol":"VGUARD","name":"V-Guard Industries Limited","exchange":"NSI","country":"IN","asset_type":"equity","currency":"INR","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Electrical Equipment & Parts"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":15,"completedEpisodes":15,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":7.5,"averageExpectedMove":9.1,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.3,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":15,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":60.0,"averageReturn":1.3,"medianReturn":2.2,"confidenceLow":35.7,"confidenceHigh":80.2,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":15,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":46.7,"averageReturn":3.4,"medianReturn":-0.3,"confidenceLow":24.8,"confidenceHigh":69.9,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":14,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":64.3,"averageReturn":4.0,"medianReturn":4.9,"confidenceLow":38.8,"confidenceHigh":83.7,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":15},{"week":2,"averageReturn":1.7,"sample":15},{"week":3,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":15},{"week":4,"averageReturn":1.3,"sample":15},{"week":5,"averageReturn":2.6,"sample":15},{"week":6,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":15},{"week":7,"averageReturn":1.9,"sample":15},{"week":8,"averageReturn":2.4,"sample":15},{"week":9,"averageReturn":1.7,"sample":15},{"week":10,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":15},{"week":11,"averageReturn":3.1,"sample":15},{"week":12,"averageReturn":3.4,"sample":15},{"week":13,"averageReturn":3.7,"sample":15},{"week":14,"averageReturn":6.2,"sample":14},{"week":15,"averageReturn":5.1,"sample":14},{"week":16,"averageReturn":4.5,"sample":14},{"week":17,"averageReturn":5.0,"sample":14},{"week":18,"averageReturn":5.9,"sample":14},{"week":19,"averageReturn":5.3,"sample":14},{"week":20,"averageReturn":5.9,"sample":14},{"week":21,"averageReturn":4.4,"sample":14},{"week":22,"averageReturn":3.7,"sample":14},{"week":23,"averageReturn":4.5,"sample":14},{"week":24,"averageReturn":3.4,"sample":14},{"week":25,"averageReturn":3.5,"sample":14},{"week":26,"averageReturn":4.0,"sample":14}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"caution","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":46.7,"averageReturn":3.4,"sample":15},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 46.7% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of 3.4% across 15 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 71.4% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 7 cases. Distinct visits lasted 6.7 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 9.1% across 15 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.3 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-05-02","price":358.662354},{"date":"2026-04-03","price":322.700012},{"date":"2026-08-14","price":326.75}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[465.7979,456.7827,464.7519,458.6754,448.0664,444.6298,442.1892,438.4038,438.2046,409.5156,435.7641,429.9864,403.987,410.8604,415.3431,434.7181,434.3694,413.9983,415.5921,425.4539,395.8684,382.6695,364.1411,363.0454,391.7344,338.839,343.3217,308.2574,329.5749,333.7587,348.8005,354.1797,350.8426,360.5052,351.0418,355.0264,358.6624,365.2369,373.5547,382.3706,377.888,373.7042,373.8038,375.298,385.2097,392.88,392.3321,403.4889,400.5005,376.65,352.4,359.95,372.65,363.35,370.7,369.75,374.35,370.6,367.3,348.35,363.55,372.2,362.25,360.95,351.25,345.85,344.3,342.55,330.5,330.95,327.7,330.75,316.1,305.6,311.0,351.95,335.35,324.4,315.4,313.2,311.65,320.0,324.85,316.2,322.7,321.65,328.85,328.85,330.2,331.4,320.55,305.1,306.75,310.45,299.15,311.25,304.7495,301.4651,304.1523,298.7281,289.4225,314.25,319.65,326.75],"consensus":[-21.0812,-8.0226,16.1965,-10.0915,-21.5896,-15.7719,-9.268,-13.5385,-11.8547,-52.4046,17.69,-23.8271,-52.0604,0.0,-14.2868,26.3272,9.6847,-37.2658,-8.0842,0.0,-52.7005,-48.5587,-60.3419,-26.0834,16.6989,-68.1889,-21.5502,-70.3256,0.0,-10.1996,0.0,9.6119,0.0,26.3565,-19.1477,0.0,13.7041,15.5144,23.8466,32.0676,9.3346,9.1416,0.0,8.467,37.1646,37.0708,24.0434,49.1935,20.3292,-40.7712,-56.2676,-12.4314,0.0,-26.5643,19.4947,0.0,12.4211,0.0,-14.382,-58.92,14.4661,20.7262,-32.7311,-9.0834,-38.2167,-37.1152,-25.1503,-21.8601,-55.0065,-19.4954,-42.9775,-13.6815,-54.3306,-51.2787,-14.9192,57.7103,-14.1407,-20.81,-29.1522,-32.4675,-10.4165,0.0,11.9113,-23.6588,17.69,0.0,23.7981,10.6146,9.8455,11.0867,-33.3938,-56.6288,-25.1821,0.0,-27.7058,0.0,-19.1393,-31.7029,-13.7055,-37.7217,-50.8694,41.8057,32.8234,38.5572],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[0.0,-27.431,19.2376,0.0,12.2701,0.0,-16.1553,-56.0162,26.0593,28.2413,-30.4979,-17.5509,-43.5391,-36.2312,-19.3395,-14.3395,-53.7745,-10.9025,-46.9228,-8.9987,-60.0858,-50.9731,-9.5143,51.924,-26.2139,-34.4886,-41.2582,-30.5631,-1.7985,0.0,9.6409,-23.1282,17.4226,0.0,25.7187,5.0824,5.0052,5.0945,-28.2478,-52.845,-24.6966,0.0,-21.1611,0.0,-23.3292,-36.4552,-24.6684,-41.3426,-53.1869,33.3642,25.3541,26.4112],"force":[0.0,-25.1966,34.8333,0.0,25.1689,0.0,-16.5555,-85.971,40.809,28.0238,-62.6289,-9.4787,-38.4327,-30.2627,-13.8419,-8.2153,-64.1852,-3.2814,-30.171,-11.0978,-53.7276,-44.3531,-23.0439,94.6561,-36.0488,-28.908,-25.5157,-23.0513,-8.1288,0.0,19.9968,-46.212,29.713,0.0,34.5312,5.2638,5.3339,5.9763,-69.1987,-85.0646,-8.2992,0.0,-16.7586,0.0,-11.9437,-27.1688,-3.8136,-37.2254,-55.7063,79.5284,44.0141,50.0793],"direction":[0.0,-26.5507,8.8324,0.0,3.488,0.0,-10.8029,-42.9164,17.5995,6.9249,-13.9279,-0.8761,-31.9797,-43.0202,-39.8687,-40.2013,-49.8582,-45.5851,-47.6163,-36.7329,-48.1839,-56.5747,-48.2125,37.9335,-15.3059,-0.607,-17.9142,-41.3697,-37.6232,0.0,8.7307,-8.1558,9.4078,0.0,13.9366,20.7591,18.5999,21.585,-13.7001,-40.6419,-37.7961,0.0,-43.0048,0.0,-19.4906,-29.5103,-8.2421,-33.9381,-44.766,24.5084,33.3665,44.2082],"intensity":[51.9231,23.0769,17.3077,9.6154,11.5385,40.3846,48.0769,65.3846,51.9231,57.6923,32.6923,3.8462,63.4615,21.1538,17.3077,11.5385,44.2308,42.3077,13.4615,53.8462,67.3077,73.0769,17.3077,98.0769,92.3077,42.3077,59.6154,32.6923,90.3846,59.6154,40.3846,32.6923,21.1538,36.5385,26.9231,40.3846,5.7692,5.7692,53.8462,80.7692,36.5385,7.6923,69.2308,84.6154,57.6923,30.7692,7.6923,23.0769,48.0769,98.0769,86.5385,86.5385],"confirmation":[29.4428,76.4457,74.7097,1.0254,49.6989,48.7434,72.6415,87.7231,31.6766,52.0736,79.4192,48.3099,80.1548,79.6815,75.792,74.694,85.9006,51.7087,81.3024,28.7285,85.2797,84.2028,31.2822,87.6814,30.9407,52.1604,77.0334,78.1316,5.0721,28.2085,72.0926,76.2662,74.0313,24.3439,75.9132,25.9846,25.7535,26.15,79.8556,87.0455,75.5511,4.888,76.6319,25.4549,73.8414,77.9343,49.2506,80.0006,84.3903,82.6561,78.9584,80.8745],"persistence":[12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,37.5,50.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,37.5,62.5,37.5,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,62.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,37.5,25.0],"assessmentRisk":[51.8103,27.5118,35.9563,33.2637,0.908,31.6975,7.473,17.7048,42.1061,4.197,4.1616,48.0105,23.6994,31.1815,35.9002,37.9401,21.6896,37.4401,26.617,37.1549,20.1573,24.3234,42.1761,17.133,51.0554,53.951,29.6307,33.3484,41.3941,18.7289,23.1298,22.1236,23.3242,8.3598,2.3774,31.2489,33.4302,40.6558,27.3329,21.5815,37.2937,46.5647,35.8972,29.7284,3.0827,25.9231,35.8899,28.1742,23.024,21.1186,28.5029,30.2733],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":38.6,"control":26.4,"force":50.1,"direction":44.2,"confirmation":80.9,"persistence":25.0,"assessmentRisk":30.3,"intensity":86.5,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+38.6","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+26.4","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+50.1","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+44.2","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"81/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"54.7","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"5.9%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"11.0","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"68%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility 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