{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"SAP Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"ca73e466-44b0-483c-ae46-1631d48b4ebf","symbol":"SAP","name":"SAP SE","exchange":"VIE","country":"AT","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Technology","industry":"Software - Application"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":16,"completedEpisodes":15,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":9.5,"averageExpectedMove":11.0,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":8.7,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":16,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":56.2,"averageReturn":1.7,"medianReturn":1.4,"confidenceLow":33.2,"confidenceHigh":76.9,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":15,"expectedCount":11,"expectedPercent":73.3,"averageReturn":6.4,"medianReturn":4.9,"confidenceLow":48.0,"confidenceHigh":89.1,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":15,"expectedCount":12,"expectedPercent":80.0,"averageReturn":15.3,"medianReturn":19.0,"confidenceLow":54.8,"confidenceHigh":93.0,"confidence":"Historically consistent"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":16},{"week":2,"averageReturn":0.0,"sample":16},{"week":3,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":16},{"week":4,"averageReturn":1.7,"sample":16},{"week":5,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":16},{"week":6,"averageReturn":2.4,"sample":16},{"week":7,"averageReturn":2.9,"sample":16},{"week":8,"averageReturn":5.3,"sample":16},{"week":9,"averageReturn":5.6,"sample":16},{"week":10,"averageReturn":5.0,"sample":15},{"week":11,"averageReturn":6.1,"sample":15},{"week":12,"averageReturn":6.4,"sample":15},{"week":13,"averageReturn":7.1,"sample":15},{"week":14,"averageReturn":7.4,"sample":15},{"week":15,"averageReturn":7.5,"sample":15},{"week":16,"averageReturn":8.3,"sample":15},{"week":17,"averageReturn":8.9,"sample":15},{"week":18,"averageReturn":10.8,"sample":15},{"week":19,"averageReturn":11.7,"sample":15},{"week":20,"averageReturn":12.7,"sample":15},{"week":21,"averageReturn":12.5,"sample":15},{"week":22,"averageReturn":12.7,"sample":15},{"week":23,"averageReturn":12.4,"sample":15},{"week":24,"averageReturn":13.8,"sample":15},{"week":25,"averageReturn":14.3,"sample":15},{"week":26,"averageReturn":15.3,"sample":15}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":6.8,"averageExpectedMove":6.8,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":12.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":0,"expectedPercent":0.0,"averageReturn":1.1,"medianReturn":1.1,"confidenceLow":0.0,"confidenceHigh":79.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-6.8,"medianReturn":-6.8,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-13.4,"medianReturn":-13.4,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":3.4,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-3.1,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-4.5,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-2.2,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-2.7,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-1.6,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-1.3,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-6.8,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-6.7,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-4.8,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-9.7,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-11.9,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-11.3,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-13.2,"sample":1},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-16.3,"sample":1},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-13.5,"sample":1},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-14.8,"sample":1},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-12.6,"sample":1},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-12.0,"sample":1},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-12.2,"sample":1},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-10.9,"sample":1},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-13.4,"sample":1}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"caution","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":73.3,"averageReturn":6.4,"sample":15},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 73.3% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of 6.4% across 15 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 75.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 4 cases. Distinct visits lasted 5.8 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 11.0% across 15 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 8.7 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-05-22","price":151.919998},{"date":"2026-07-31","price":155.059998}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2025-03-14","price":235.625366},{"date":"2025-07-25","price":241.34108}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2025-05-02","price":258.915039}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[190.4687,192.8854,185.6354,195.1851,199.0342,199.8625,195.5262,203.2244,207.2197,214.8693,210.9227,215.795,212.0433,220.6186,219.5467,235.4792,234.7483,228.4143,233.579,229.6324,238.2077,249.6577,256.7712,262.3744,263.9823,270.9009,266.6133,257.8431,248.0498,235.6254,244.834,240.79,226.8065,219.0595,220.0827,237.8666,258.915,255.3582,260.9571,256.2375,261.7437,267.8399,250.7804,247.3881,253.091,251.862,254.7626,255.6475,241.3411,241.4394,246.4049,233.77,228.1162,229.6895,224.8223,216.6121,223.9374,220.6435,226.2972,227.7229,227.428,230.8202,224.1832,212.3349,208.0578,201.5682,205.1571,209.4343,204.9605,201.5682,204.0755,198.3235,206.8778,198.7659,195.59,168.5307,163.9684,169.219,170.2416,168.0981,169.9466,163.1818,150.4781,140.4488,145.7977,137.0664,153.3492,145.3651,143.3789,145.82,144.1,151.92,156.12,161.72,140.28,133.54,135.08,139.4,137.96,137.92,141.24,155.06,177.1,180.56],"consensus":[9.2442,46.9029,-19.2737,62.5193,50.5235,35.1795,0.0,57.9906,53.0023,73.4012,8.8532,66.4358,0.0,70.9442,29.7217,80.3274,35.5737,0.0,64.8864,0.0,59.4132,79.1684,74.8976,76.1785,53.8714,65.8485,12.5482,-11.7565,-43.4503,-58.9676,16.2361,-41.0485,-65.9495,-48.6297,-47.4987,32.1547,63.4403,11.2835,45.4108,12.6084,31.7926,48.3848,-37.3582,-22.5142,16.7326,-11.562,9.7296,15.4432,-56.8627,-27.543,0.0,-59.5236,-54.8927,-28.7169,-54.7495,-68.1534,0.0,-42.6961,0.0,0.0,0.0,13.2985,-34.7892,-64.991,-49.1454,-60.379,-15.1975,0.0,-41.9651,-42.0423,-26.9777,-57.1367,23.3903,-47.0495,-25.4719,-72.5121,-55.8509,-27.919,-24.3982,-24.4089,0.0,-54.4955,-72.6394,-73.7467,-19.0118,-67.9855,23.2742,-35.3335,-34.3295,-10.5902,-22.3282,21.5712,30.6034,19.6747,-39.4323,-45.6334,-12.7735,-22.5555,-28.558,0.0,15.825,53.9432,70.1787,47.7729],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-58.2705,-25.0896,-54.7109,-64.3277,0.0,-39.3016,0.0,0.0,0.0,3.0845,-33.4017,-62.6731,-42.1169,-63.2872,-3.6436,0.0,-41.6716,-54.4827,-38.0168,-60.5862,19.8998,-44.7362,-12.6398,-67.4282,-50.6643,-31.3324,-13.4331,-21.1733,0.0,-54.1642,-73.4433,-74.7356,-11.6615,-65.5941,22.602,-36.0536,-44.0786,-22.1142,-18.8544,13.9015,28.5571,5.0055,-49.4917,-53.9254,-0.6912,-21.1843,-41.5667,0.0,12.0191,43.4643,78.4704,41.7223],"force":[-51.7046,-5.0764,-50.3294,-83.8656,0.0,-42.8899,0.0,0.0,0.0,31.4994,-57.1679,-88.9523,-53.495,-56.6591,-20.782,0.0,-50.1464,-34.3737,-6.592,-62.6942,72.6721,-72.8152,-24.3551,-93.4658,-51.7009,-23.3913,-4.6542,-10.4086,0.0,-68.3436,-89.1946,-85.5813,-26.4464,-80.1784,82.5691,-51.7049,-20.6751,-7.7818,-12.2608,54.2714,42.2434,16.2593,-41.1904,-32.7273,-9.1033,-6.8717,-17.8232,0.0,36.5544,82.5609,62.4454,28.4264],"direction":[-53.3095,-49.7484,-57.951,-61.3026,0.0,-46.4371,0.0,0.0,0.0,11.971,-20.3901,-50.5247,-54.0711,-59.7123,-54.1015,0.0,-36.457,-33.3022,-28.923,-49.225,7.8218,-31.2894,-40.9348,-63.3554,-64.7426,-60.6681,-57.6815,-38.107,0.0,-44.9826,-59.8955,-64.1633,-59.8822,-62.0095,18.3112,-22.8166,-32.9407,-10.5428,-33.4894,6.9792,24.6276,38.8791,-26.68,-45.3755,-43.7882,-35.3252,-21.3587,0.0,5.3678,45.4779,66.2262,68.5069],"intensity":[55.7692,23.0769,21.1538,57.6923,63.4615,75.0,32.6923,55.7692,44.2308,75.0,75.0,69.2308,61.5385,48.0769,5.7692,9.6154,13.4615,5.7692,3.8462,34.6154,51.9231,48.0769,96.1538,100.0,96.1538,50.0,11.5385,15.3846,1.9231,42.3077,78.8462,67.3077,42.3077,57.6923,86.5385,50.0,21.1538,73.0769,71.1538,78.8462,15.3846,86.5385,98.0769,40.3846,3.8462,46.1538,1.9231,40.3846,11.5385,96.1538,96.1538,84.6154],"confirmation":[85.417,53.8575,85.3857,90.3462,34.979,81.7204,5.6315,2.528,24.501,50.2992,79.8357,89.5627,83.9662,87.1636,8.3762,31.0864,81.6827,81.0302,53.1767,86.4006,56.042,83.8763,76.3125,91.9199,85.8248,34.9751,53.4153,75.4335,6.4582,85.8656,91.7369,91.9446,33.119,90.1634,35.8381,79.7947,78.4207,49.6468,74.8912,53.3496,78.179,51.7487,80.5186,82.083,5.7155,52.094,76.6132,2.7298,51.0871,86.2937,90.0952,82.7899],"persistence":[37.5,37.5,62.5,87.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,50.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,37.5,37.5,50.0,50.0,62.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5],"assessmentRisk":[19.4143,31.5,22.4019,15.573,31.5735,23.3972,9.4845,47.2903,27.7239,40.7372,0.0051,16.8423,25.3445,19.8081,42.2848,24.3027,4.4683,21.0211,3.0439,20.459,4.9642,1.0174,32.775,13.6515,22.0715,35.9383,37.5298,9.6338,31.5268,3.7565,12.6266,12.9621,40.0175,15.8176,2.2421,40.1695,1.7994,46.064,31.2121,23.4202,30.7735,38.2007,1.0859,25.2471,42.6715,38.0289,1.2281,29.0058,27.001,21.0426,14.8761,26.0976],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":47.8,"control":41.7,"force":28.4,"direction":68.5,"confirmation":82.8,"persistence":12.5,"assessmentRisk":26.1,"intensity":84.6,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+47.8","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+41.7","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+28.4","detail":"Upward 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