{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"JARR Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"cb77012c-7e0c-4824-a948-ec09752ccb32","symbol":"JARR","name":"PT Jhonlin Agro Raya Tbk","exchange":"JKT","country":"ID","asset_type":"equity","currency":"IDR","sector":"Consumer Defensive","industry":"Farm Products"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":15,"completedEpisodes":14,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":20.5,"averageExpectedMove":43.9,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.9,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":15,"expectedCount":10,"expectedPercent":66.7,"averageReturn":6.3,"medianReturn":8.2,"confidenceLow":41.7,"confidenceHigh":84.8,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":14,"expectedCount":10,"expectedPercent":71.4,"averageReturn":30.1,"medianReturn":9.0,"confidenceLow":45.4,"confidenceHigh":88.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":14,"expectedCount":10,"expectedPercent":71.4,"averageReturn":233.0,"medianReturn":24.8,"confidenceLow":45.4,"confidenceHigh":88.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":1.2,"sample":15},{"week":2,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":15},{"week":3,"averageReturn":2.8,"sample":15},{"week":4,"averageReturn":6.3,"sample":15},{"week":5,"averageReturn":2.2,"sample":14},{"week":6,"averageReturn":11.4,"sample":14},{"week":7,"averageReturn":7.7,"sample":14},{"week":8,"averageReturn":10.8,"sample":14},{"week":9,"averageReturn":17.3,"sample":14},{"week":10,"averageReturn":30.6,"sample":14},{"week":11,"averageReturn":30.4,"sample":14},{"week":12,"averageReturn":30.1,"sample":14},{"week":13,"averageReturn":41.3,"sample":14},{"week":14,"averageReturn":83.0,"sample":14},{"week":15,"averageReturn":93.0,"sample":14},{"week":16,"averageReturn":154.4,"sample":14},{"week":17,"averageReturn":90.9,"sample":14},{"week":18,"averageReturn":99.1,"sample":14},{"week":19,"averageReturn":90.9,"sample":14},{"week":20,"averageReturn":99.0,"sample":14},{"week":21,"averageReturn":102.4,"sample":14},{"week":22,"averageReturn":97.8,"sample":14},{"week":23,"averageReturn":113.4,"sample":14},{"week":24,"averageReturn":146.5,"sample":14},{"week":25,"averageReturn":171.8,"sample":14},{"week":26,"averageReturn":233.0,"sample":14}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"caution","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":71.4,"averageReturn":30.1,"sample":14},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 71.4% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of 30.1% across 14 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 105.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 43.9% across 14 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.9 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-08-29","price":1665.0}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2025-10-17","price":4300.0}],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-16","2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[248.3304,246.3595,244.3887,281.8353,271.9809,268.0392,262.1266,254.243,264.0974,317.3111,309.4276,309.4276,299.5732,287.748,277.8936,277.8936,289.7188,315.3402,299.5732,301.5441,317.3111,303.515,317.3111,307.4567,309.4276,309.4276,305.4858,338.9907,335.049,364.6121,382.35,362.6412,350.816,337.0199,356.7286,374.4665,378.4083,364.6121,380.3791,415.8549,384.3209,382.35,388.0,370.0,366.0,372.0,384.0,440.0,410.0,715.0,630.0,740.0,1020.0,1665.0,1665.0,1620.0,2180.0,4250.0,4670.0,7450.0,4300.0,4520.0,3910.0,3670.0,3690.0,3490.0,3290.0,2940.0,3370.0,3180.0,3170.0,3190.0,3150.0,3050.0,3110.0,2600.0,2230.0,2530.0,2620.0,2360.0,2100.0,1755.0,1825.0,1860.0,2040.0,2180.0,2460.0,2222.6978,2182.8286,2073.189,2013.3854,1584.7935,1609.7115,1280.7922,1604.7279,2023.3527,1945.0,1840.0,1870.0,1845.0,1905.0,1930.0,1915.0,2010.0],"consensus":[0.0,-14.0926,-8.9016,46.8203,0.0,0.0,-8.0877,-25.9308,0.0,60.3499,0.0,19.4793,0.0,-19.5171,-19.3125,-16.0115,11.0544,31.3722,-9.0267,9.294,24.4402,-15.7587,23.5224,-8.0451,10.3228,0.0,0.0,51.0013,0.0,50.4583,49.4057,0.0,0.0,0.0,16.6439,30.5647,14.5326,0.0,30.2542,50.5043,-16.4576,0.0,10.8321,-27.6728,-10.6066,0.0,11.4977,67.1189,-12.1916,72.7507,0.0,70.5838,80.3446,93.0255,49.1138,26.8159,93.1769,96.0084,84.8308,91.7729,0.0,35.4833,-19.2591,-11.7061,0.0,-20.7575,-22.9866,-38.3795,13.0852,-22.312,-13.5907,0.0,-18.2039,-19.889,-8.8503,-42.6771,-47.9441,0.0,-20.2109,-34.6429,-31.6559,-54.1213,-24.9306,-27.2858,0.0,0.0,29.5052,-19.9884,-10.0354,-24.6586,-28.7203,-52.464,-33.7773,-55.9589,-9.4028,19.3314,0.0,0.0,0.0,-12.5785,0.0,0.0,0.0,23.5362],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[77.4222,96.1999,40.3203,6.6737,95.226,98.2211,93.3056,98.7579,0.0,25.9263,-12.1094,-5.078,0.0,-21.9786,-24.3598,-42.6175,12.7797,-24.2116,-16.2101,0.0,-20.4024,-23.1794,-9.9143,-38.7097,-49.6192,0.0,-16.8046,-38.5531,-35.1092,-60.1833,-14.7829,-22.4734,0.0,0.0,26.7811,-31.6944,-16.4918,-29.9387,-30.3311,-52.2511,-34.3431,-64.3539,-0.445,13.2153,0.0,0.0,0.0,-12.2046,0.0,0.0,0.0,16.2147],"force":[91.6742,99.981,10.44,20.8516,99.8564,99.9994,60.0114,77.7057,0.0,36.2841,-74.5555,-30.9117,0.0,-29.2173,-27.6179,-39.5474,45.8994,-26.5856,-9.2848,0.0,-16.3662,-16.2005,-1.0589,-50.0725,-37.4991,0.0,-7.3684,-27.1543,-16.7651,-40.2121,-0.2291,-5.113,0.0,0.0,46.7811,-32.9536,-7.182,-23.8315,-22.0438,-56.6125,-14.1536,-41.3976,-15.7763,27.5927,0.0,0.0,0.0,-13.2448,0.0,0.0,0.0,37.8806],"direction":[75.5919,84.4295,86.7877,83.8839,86.0641,90.6288,92.8734,93.8381,0.0,45.8335,-12.0672,-5.5627,0.0,-13.3191,-18.109,-32.702,10.0044,-17.0884,-13.6727,0.0,-17.0038,-18.7633,-13.1996,-41.929,-53.4904,0.0,-33.2771,-35.523,-38.3456,-57.1284,-54.4992,-48.6234,0.0,0.0,20.2785,-2.6507,-4.6947,-19.2151,-31.6483,-49.7443,-47.1475,-56.7656,-38.6426,20.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Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+23.5","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+16.2","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+37.9","detail":"Upward 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