{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"CSSG Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"cbdbc3fb-0b89-4bac-a87c-00e49a8c80b4","symbol":"CSSG","name":"Croma Security Solutions Group plc","exchange":"LSE","country":"GB","asset_type":"equity","currency":"GBP","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Security & Protection Services"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":14,"completedEpisodes":13,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":3.1,"averageExpectedMove":8.6,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":4.7,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":13,"expectedCount":5,"expectedPercent":38.5,"averageReturn":-0.0,"medianReturn":-0.7,"confidenceLow":17.7,"confidenceHigh":64.5,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":13,"expectedCount":4,"expectedPercent":30.8,"averageReturn":0.7,"medianReturn":-4.6,"confidenceLow":12.7,"confidenceHigh":57.6,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":13,"expectedCount":5,"expectedPercent":38.5,"averageReturn":1.7,"medianReturn":-4.1,"confidenceLow":17.7,"confidenceHigh":64.5,"confidence":"Mixed historical 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":2,"completedEpisodes":2,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":3.5,"averageExpectedMove":3.5,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":2,"expectedCount":0,"expectedPercent":0.0,"averageReturn":0.0,"medianReturn":0.0,"confidenceLow":0.0,"confidenceHigh":65.8,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":2,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":-2.3,"medianReturn":-2.3,"confidenceLow":9.5,"confidenceHigh":90.5,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-5.8,"medianReturn":-5.8,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":2},{"week":2,"averageReturn":3.5,"sample":2},{"week":3,"averageReturn":2.0,"sample":2},{"week":4,"averageReturn":0.0,"sample":2},{"week":5,"averageReturn":0.9,"sample":2},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-1.5,"sample":2},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-0.3,"sample":2},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-2.9,"sample":2},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-1.7,"sample":2},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-1.7,"sample":2},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-2.3,"sample":2},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-2.3,"sample":2},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-4.9,"sample":2},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-5.8,"sample":2},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-6.4,"sample":2},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-4.9,"sample":2},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-6.1,"sample":2},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-6.1,"sample":2},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-6.7,"sample":2},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-7.3,"sample":2},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-11.1,"sample":2},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-9.9,"sample":2},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-7.6,"sample":2},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-5.2,"sample":2},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-5.8,"sample":2},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-5.8,"sample":2}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"caution","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":30.8,"averageReturn":0.7,"sample":13},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 30.8% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of 0.7% across 13 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 14.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 8.6% across 13 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 4.7 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2025-05-09","price":0.814642},{"date":"2025-06-27","price":0.800094}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2025-01-31","price":0.829189},{"date":"2025-05-16","price":0.834038}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[0.6522,0.6663,0.6663,0.6663,0.6663,0.6663,0.6474,0.6427,0.6427,0.638,0.638,0.7467,0.7703,0.7939,0.7372,0.8534,0.9068,0.8389,0.8389,0.834,0.834,0.8437,0.8292,0.8292,0.8389,0.8874,0.8631,0.8292,0.8389,0.8389,0.8389,0.8389,0.8389,0.8389,0.8292,0.8292,0.8292,0.8146,0.834,0.834,0.834,0.834,0.834,0.8389,0.8001,0.8195,0.7758,0.7952,0.7952,0.7952,0.7952,0.7516,0.7516,0.7225,0.7468,0.7274,0.7274,0.7177,0.7031,0.6789,0.6789,0.7613,0.7807,0.771,0.771,0.771,0.771,0.785,0.775,0.76,0.75,0.74,0.755,0.75,0.735,0.74,0.735,0.735,0.73,0.735,0.725,0.725,0.715,0.7,0.685,0.685,0.685,0.675,0.675,0.675,0.675,0.675,0.675,0.675,0.675,0.675,0.665,0.685,0.685,0.685,0.7,0.675,0.7,0.7],"consensus":[-26.0151,9.6224,0.0,10.5678,0.0,0.0,-22.5203,-13.9973,-10.2109,-16.9405,-9.2876,65.0402,58.6884,58.7362,-8.9698,71.479,73.9507,0.0,34.2156,13.4549,18.1134,23.1016,0.0,9.9489,14.4652,51.3551,0.0,-22.3112,10.5723,0.0,0.0,10.0918,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-17.2801,23.9869,9.7318,9.5046,0.0,0.0,0.0,-38.9791,0.0,-50.5635,0.0,-9.2281,0.0,0.0,-55.1784,-25.7583,-54.2626,-9.3368,-34.3277,-21.7414,-23.8303,-36.188,-49.1049,-28.2064,45.9971,35.9143,0.0,17.9146,9.8058,0.0,20.453,0.0,-11.0231,-13.7256,-20.2638,0.0,-8.6791,-25.1365,0.0,-12.699,-8.0154,-9.3801,0.0,-14.4706,0.0,-18.2552,-35.3967,-32.5553,-21.6127,-19.1003,-32.1079,-15.9121,-13.5693,-11.9761,-8.542,0.0,0.0,-14.5217,-13.6482,-15.4676,11.8533,0.0,0.0,22.9256,-27.879,35.2635,8.7795],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-22.3575,-56.3097,-0.4408,-34.6556,-18.8431,-23.9293,-31.8876,-38.8436,-23.0831,41.5716,32.7896,0.0,9.9285,8.6315,0.0,21.779,0.0,-9.2337,-12.7984,-12.0908,0.0,-8.337,-22.9495,0.0,-10.2923,-5.9887,-9.1759,0.0,-14.1708,0.0,-18.4532,-41.2253,-32.3097,-18.0172,-16.1627,-35.9719,-15.6544,-12.6054,-10.8572,-9.3334,0.0,0.0,-21.7518,-20.675,-17.3839,12.2438,0.0,0.0,10.9165,-27.1358,27.7295,4.6595],"force":[-8.1229,-52.0998,-17.6542,-26.3686,-3.4173,-12.5755,-28.0832,-62.1438,-7.921,80.6732,36.5962,0.0,9.5953,1.7442,0.0,13.8726,0.0,-26.4282,-17.6252,-27.6584,0.0,-11.7981,-40.0124,0.0,-10.8482,-2.9924,-6.3242,0.0,-15.1688,0.0,-16.6451,-30.7442,-25.8982,-6.9831,-5.7833,-23.8102,-2.938,-2.1872,-2.1777,-0.0,0.0,0.0,-11.6,-11.6,-9.5155,16.4135,0.0,0.0,34.209,-54.4333,68.2593,1.1744],"direction":[-42.2416,-53.4678,-39.7904,-39.6381,-38.1425,-31.7565,-46.8919,-51.5186,-48.5512,26.2862,38.9984,0.0,32.9838,16.9062,0.0,23.6377,0.0,-2.0645,-11.9999,-24.3224,0.0,-6.8423,-17.0103,0.0,-16.7716,-13.9195,-11.7963,0.0,-14.3146,0.0,-19.1791,-32.0587,-37.5912,-36.1716,-31.9698,-33.6188,-25.4738,-22.8009,-20.2537,-13.739,0.0,0.0,-8.3455,-7.0806,-17.529,8.1496,0.0,0.0,28.5908,-9.761,20.3054,18.9203],"intensity":[57.6923,67.3077,51.9231,44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Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Control support is limited","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Commitment is limited","forcePath":"Broadly stable","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+8.8","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+4.7","detail":"Control support is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+1.2","detail":"Commitment is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction 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