{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"UNB Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"da48b3d1-3118-4d82-98a9-14cf2bbdf6a6","symbol":"UNB","name":"Union Bankshares Inc","exchange":"NASDAQ","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Financial Services","industry":"Banks - Regional"},"summary":"The technical trend and the underlying tape are moving in opposite directions. Price is holding its upward structure without confirmation from Market Dynamics.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Range pressure and compression, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Directional strength and control."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"The technical trend and the underlying tape are moving in opposite directions. Price is holding its upward structure without confirmation from Market Dynamics.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Evidence conflict","headline":"Price structure is upward, but Market Dynamics is negative","summary":"The technical trend and the underlying tape are moving in opposite directions. Price is holding its upward structure without confirmation from Market Dynamics.","take":"The gap can close through improving Market Dynamics or weakening price. Until one occurs, the upward structure carries elevated reversal risk and should not be read as fully 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":16,"completedEpisodes":15,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":7.7,"averageExpectedMove":9.8,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":5.6,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":15,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":60.0,"averageReturn":-0.2,"medianReturn":0.5,"confidenceLow":35.7,"confidenceHigh":80.2,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":15,"expectedCount":6,"expectedPercent":40.0,"averageReturn":0.7,"medianReturn":-0.9,"confidenceLow":19.8,"confidenceHigh":64.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":13,"expectedCount":4,"expectedPercent":30.8,"averageReturn":1.1,"medianReturn":-7.6,"confidenceLow":12.7,"confidenceHigh":57.6,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":16},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":16},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-0.7,"sample":16},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":15},{"week":5,"averageReturn":1.2,"sample":15},{"week":6,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":15},{"week":7,"averageReturn":2.2,"sample":15},{"week":8,"averageReturn":1.9,"sample":15},{"week":9,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":15},{"week":10,"averageReturn":0.9,"sample":15},{"week":11,"averageReturn":0.1,"sample":15},{"week":12,"averageReturn":0.7,"sample":15},{"week":13,"averageReturn":2.4,"sample":15},{"week":14,"averageReturn":0.9,"sample":14},{"week":15,"averageReturn":1.0,"sample":14},{"week":16,"averageReturn":2.9,"sample":14},{"week":17,"averageReturn":3.2,"sample":14},{"week":18,"averageReturn":3.2,"sample":14},{"week":19,"averageReturn":2.2,"sample":14},{"week":20,"averageReturn":2.4,"sample":14},{"week":21,"averageReturn":1.8,"sample":14},{"week":22,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":14},{"week":23,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":14},{"week":24,"averageReturn":1.8,"sample":14},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-1.2,"sample":13},{"week":26,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":13}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":2,"completedEpisodes":2,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":22.1,"averageExpectedMove":22.1,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":7.5,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-15.1,"medianReturn":-15.1,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":2,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":-11.1,"medianReturn":-11.1,"confidenceLow":9.5,"confidenceHigh":90.5,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-22.9,"medianReturn":-22.9,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-9.3,"sample":2},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-8.0,"sample":2},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-8.3,"sample":2},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-15.1,"sample":2},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-11.9,"sample":2},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-12.7,"sample":2},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-18.8,"sample":2},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-22.0,"sample":2},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-16.6,"sample":2},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-8.2,"sample":2},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-10.2,"sample":2},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-11.1,"sample":2},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-8.4,"sample":2},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-16.5,"sample":2},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-18.6,"sample":2},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-18.2,"sample":2},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-19.1,"sample":2},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-23.9,"sample":2},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-23.7,"sample":2},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-20.6,"sample":2},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-20.9,"sample":2},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-24.1,"sample":2},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-21.8,"sample":2},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-25.7,"sample":2},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-25.6,"sample":2},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-22.9,"sample":2}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Evidence conflict","tone":"negative","headline":"Market Dynamics is negative while price remains rotational","use":"Treat the pressure as context until price establishes a clear response.","confirm":"The gap can close through improving Market Dynamics or weakening price. Until one occurs, the upward structure carries elevated reversal risk and should not be read as fully aligned.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price is between the accumulation and distribution zones. The Market Dynamics bars describe whether the current move is gaining or losing underlying support.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":55.0,"averageReturn":-1.9,"sample":20},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price structure is upward","detail":"Price is responding in the same broad direction as Market Dynamics."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 55.0% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of -1.9% across 20 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 3 cases. Distinct visits lasted 4.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 8.8% across 20 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 7.0 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2024-12-20","price":29.145318},{"date":"2025-02-21","price":27.050901},{"date":"2025-05-23","price":28.805776}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2025-02-14","price":32.198996},{"date":"2025-04-25","price":32.93845}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[22.9364,23.7588,22.7811,23.2471,25.0839,24.0238,22.8907,24.3985,25.1295,26.5916,26.092,26.8692,28.5809,28.7752,31.8285,32.9388,31.4122,29.1453,26.4621,26.5824,27.3133,27.7574,28.951,29.859,30.1866,32.199,27.0509,27.3317,27.1445,26.4987,29.4752,29.6905,26.2366,26.3021,29.3348,32.9385,32.059,32.6264,32.6642,28.8058,27.8885,27.1272,26.6212,24.5029,24.9001,26.8009,26.3375,25.2216,26.9522,25.5155,25.0941,26.1477,26.0519,25.0654,24.7685,24.893,25.1612,24.1746,23.9352,22.8529,23.3126,24.0597,22.1746,22.6507,21.0862,22.5438,22.4758,22.3592,23.0588,23.088,22.8548,23.0491,23.9042,24.0791,23.2532,24.5358,24.4865,24.5851,24.2894,22.9192,23.1065,23.1853,22.1798,22.9192,24.3485,24.0725,24.3288,24.4373,25.03,24.18,23.38,23.79,23.1,23.26,23.5,23.7,24.4671,25.1861,24.4769,25.0187,24.4277,23.03,23.55,24.59],"consensus":[29.8006,35.4401,-8.3984,23.7157,55.3238,0.0,-15.6317,43.211,38.1875,63.4738,17.8476,44.8519,67.5053,42.8349,78.1958,59.6676,8.5519,-19.3578,-46.8283,-14.2646,0.0,0.0,30.9361,37.9248,32.4042,53.0656,-52.5027,-8.4668,-12.7582,-27.7859,46.8145,10.3141,-51.7459,-13.2887,34.8776,63.9353,22.9035,45.1716,24.2008,-47.624,-30.7003,-34.6945,-41.5712,-56.5791,-18.3578,17.1594,-16.8573,-32.8185,22.1583,-38.5421,-30.6003,15.0442,0.0,-27.6688,-29.3075,-17.7282,0.0,-41.3057,-28.6215,-54.6707,-26.3096,0.0,-56.5075,0.0,-58.7295,8.7222,0.0,-15.2039,18.3042,0.0,-9.8592,8.6233,38.5846,22.0213,-18.3437,48.2828,14.2204,27.7223,11.0638,-44.5217,-13.0304,-13.787,-49.2853,0.0,42.9694,18.4541,36.3274,23.0348,33.7736,-11.9369,-40.4851,9.9223,-39.8201,-10.0461,0.0,11.6755,39.5919,45.9639,0.0,30.907,-11.8418,-55.2793,0.0,-32.4326],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[0.0,-31.434,-40.2501,-15.9094,0.0,-40.5368,-30.5985,-56.255,-27.964,0.0,-50.8485,0.0,-52.8079,21.669,0.0,-15.9004,9.6377,0.0,-16.8162,6.2235,38.4192,18.8631,-27.9864,43.1431,10.0677,29.4662,6.1808,-44.598,-9.9794,-10.3119,-49.1807,0.0,45.3764,19.2112,37.1129,18.3277,33.6971,-17.0864,-36.5839,16.8557,-39.1236,-5.7429,0.0,17.8825,26.5401,41.1167,0.0,26.9397,-12.8378,-52.1117,0.0,-42.8909],"force":[0.0,-28.1486,-19.0678,-4.9442,0.0,-55.1923,-19.7757,-61.7269,-3.5692,0.0,-79.9111,0.0,-78.1369,44.6533,0.0,-8.1208,38.3796,0.0,-13.5017,12.1647,55.7081,15.5394,-39.0411,68.4452,1.2534,22.9818,2.7587,-67.3755,-4.0637,-8.8285,-62.1438,0.0,52.6853,8.4643,35.6126,14.1301,30.7639,-34.4099,-72.3954,26.0043,-50.3056,-1.1293,0.0,19.1048,70.7859,56.0326,0.0,31.5129,-35.509,-84.401,0.0,-52.1272],"direction":[0.0,-23.0231,-24.1157,-28.9382,0.0,-32.2655,-32.6806,-47.8199,-40.6619,0.0,-46.2582,0.0,-51.6347,31.7391,0.0,-19.4674,13.8693,0.0,-0.6933,8.8363,26.5424,30.2606,-7.4604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Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the Market Dynamics view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics disagree. The completed evidence gives the downward Market Dynamics view stronger support.","take":"Current assessment: the visible price structure remains vulnerable until Market Dynamics changes.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":true},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Present","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-32.4","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-42.9","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-52.1","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM 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