{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"TOM Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"da6e928f-85a9-46dc-95a5-ec0968a5f3db","symbol":"TOM","name":"Toyota Motor Corporation","exchange":"VIE","country":"AT","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Consumer Cyclical","industry":"Auto Manufacturers"},"summary":"The technical trend and the underlying tape are moving in opposite directions. Price is holding its upward structure without confirmation from Market Dynamics.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Directional strength and control, Range position and boundary pressure."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"The technical trend and the underlying tape are moving in opposite directions. 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evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":15},{"week":2,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":15},{"week":3,"averageReturn":1.7,"sample":15},{"week":4,"averageReturn":1.0,"sample":15},{"week":5,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":15},{"week":6,"averageReturn":0.0,"sample":15},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":14},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-0.5,"sample":14},{"week":9,"averageReturn":3.1,"sample":14},{"week":10,"averageReturn":3.0,"sample":9},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":7},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":7},{"week":13,"averageReturn":1.3,"sample":7},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-0.5,"sample":7},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":6},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":5},{"week":17,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":5},{"week":18,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":5},{"week":19,"averageReturn":0.9,"sample":4},{"week":20,"averageReturn":7.0,"sample":3},{"week":21,"averageReturn":8.1,"sample":3},{"week":22,"averageReturn":3.5,"sample":1},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":2,"completedEpisodes":2,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":4.7,"averageExpectedMove":4.7,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":3.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-0.9,"medianReturn":-0.9,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":3.2,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-3.2,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-4.7,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":1},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Evidence conflict","tone":"negative","headline":"Market Dynamics is negative while price remains rotational","use":"Treat the pressure as context until price establishes a clear response.","confirm":"The gap can close through improving Market Dynamics or weakening price. Until one occurs, the upward structure carries elevated reversal risk and should not be read as fully aligned.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price is between the accumulation and distribution zones. The Market Dynamics bars describe whether the current move is gaining or losing underlying support.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":33.3,"averageReturn":12.0,"sample":9},"nowContext":{"label":"Slightly stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price structure is upward","detail":"Price is responding in the same broad direction as Market Dynamics."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 33.3% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 12.0% across 9 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 0.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 26.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 5.1% across 9 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 4.1 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2024-09-06","price":123.620277},{"date":"2024-09-27","price":-92.495888}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2024-08-23","price":127.736351},{"date":"2024-09-20","price":126.538406}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[127.7364,131.8063,123.6203,121.7312,126.5384,-92.4959,-91.1665,-89.5103,-88.9696,-89.4089,-89.8934,-90.8961,-92.6987,-93.8929,-90.5468,-93.6112,-94.5351,-96.3264,-107.1533,-106.9505,-101.4976,-99.0641,-100.0443,-103.7171,-101.599,-99.2556,-96.5292,-97.5995,-98.1065,-95.887,-99.2218,48.8264,42.9137,43.7735,46.0526,48.1373,49.7097,48.9971,48.0313,47.5308,49.2739,47.7604,45.5049,44.2977,44.3742,43.2435,42.8372,42.8725,47.0125,45.4696,47.6014,48.6791,50.3575,48.9677,49.857,49.0384,49.8098,49.8452,-29.28,-28.7899,-29.9405,-31.2651,-31.3042,-30.9455,-31.3503,-30.395,-30.9526,-29.8197,-31.3681,-33.3071,-32.9626,-32.4086,-33.5734,-35.4733,-34.1878,-33.8433,-36.3558,-37.0927,-35.6722,-36.6221,-33.3852,-32.9946,-31.8404,-31.986,17.922,18.088,18.522,16.474,16.32,16.122,16.712,16.216,16.328,15.416,15.116,15.088,15.042,15.31,15.47,15.576,15.738,16.484,16.538,16.406],"consensus":[-8.8661,25.0369,-39.7464,-22.5991,16.7098,-75.2271,-60.8631,-35.7055,-45.6261,-51.1504,-27.525,-39.0936,-56.0174,-55.1164,-15.2521,-33.7459,-26.1016,-51.0908,-78.8631,-50.3219,-9.5952,-9.7106,0.0,-39.8862,0.0,0.0,12.7835,0.0,0.0,26.8205,-32.0504,83.8075,24.7409,52.555,68.7094,54.9264,45.0442,36.3498,26.7457,23.7387,48.4218,20.0006,20.237,14.2525,32.0357,14.7016,18.8335,15.5311,51.2637,0.0,45.1855,39.4869,49.4298,0.0,30.8834,0.0,29.0073,16.1523,-81.3785,-36.4485,-65.7749,-69.1291,-30.6049,-28.5949,-43.5912,-38.6169,-52.5542,-23.2756,-53.974,-58.8624,-22.7083,-44.2053,-59.5988,-66.4132,-22.2434,-38.3698,-58.9593,-49.6157,0.0,-47.7458,37.9643,21.1701,35.2358,23.2207,80.8168,55.8965,67.0213,29.2524,29.2315,29.1534,51.7176,43.4623,33.3216,41.0919,38.7192,36.112,38.0962,18.6442,39.3268,35.5769,28.78,42.2336,39.2485,-17.9985],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[61.1388,0.0,43.2856,0.0,46.6558,26.0627,-75.9945,-16.1028,-67.0485,-67.134,-16.4171,-14.8592,-41.8753,-42.5477,-62.465,-17.0117,-68.0417,-68.5435,-10.8608,-53.6962,-65.5664,-71.0819,-21.8927,-50.8018,-75.5787,-65.2091,0.0,-63.3281,26.3773,11.3444,31.054,14.4818,73.9031,49.4543,66.3198,4.9908,26.3236,29.2121,66.194,51.1138,29.0398,52.2717,52.7532,47.4738,55.0129,12.9895,51.3906,43.9671,31.6086,42.0779,53.6803,-18.9089],"force":[51.951,0.0,18.1712,0.0,28.0584,3.3558,-81.0856,-6.699,-28.0466,-41.4748,-10.0413,-15.0431,-5.6175,-2.4108,-21.0118,-15.2666,-22.1004,-27.8501,-16.5823,-3.3091,-50.6966,-71.8504,-11.6671,-12.7716,-46.8255,-34.6092,0.0,-33.548,91.8318,34.5277,37.4599,15.2523,80.1072,15.9261,32.8133,17.8762,13.4835,14.0804,18.334,2.6029,2.2567,2.068,3.4116,3.3214,6.771,9.2394,12.8378,14.3281,10.0388,43.9358,18.7465,-2.3379],"direction":[34.2471,0.0,25.7894,0.0,9.5153,13.9666,-87.7408,-90.5203,-91.268,-91.1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Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the Market Dynamics view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics disagree. The completed evidence gives the downward Market Dynamics view stronger support.","take":"Current assessment: the visible price structure remains vulnerable until Market Dynamics changes.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":true},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Commitment is limited","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Established","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Present","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-18.0","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-18.9","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-2.3","detail":"Commitment is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-31.5","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"37/100","detail":"Limited support","tone":"caution"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"72.1","detail":"Stretched positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"11.8%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"47.1","detail":"Directional","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Range position","value":"96%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and 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Market Dynamics construction and private inputs are not disclosed. Historical research is not a forecast or instruction to trade."}