{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"MKP Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"db711a32-3c16-4a55-be7a-d2a2701c5594","symbol":"MKP","name":"MCAN Mortgage Corporation","exchange":"TOR","country":"CA","asset_type":"equity","currency":"CAD","sector":"Financial Services","industry":"Mortgage Finance"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price has moved below the distribution zone after Market Dynamics weakened.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Directional strength and control, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Range pressure and compression."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price has moved below the distribution zone after Market Dynamics weakened.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Rollover warning","headline":"Price has moved below distribution as Market Dynamics weakened","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price has moved below the distribution zone after Market Dynamics weakened.","take":"The prior extension has started to roll over. Further price weakness would confirm the downside transition; a recovery in both readings would remove the 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consistent"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.5,"sample":18},{"week":2,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":18},{"week":3,"averageReturn":2.7,"sample":17},{"week":4,"averageReturn":3.1,"sample":17},{"week":5,"averageReturn":3.6,"sample":17},{"week":6,"averageReturn":2.9,"sample":17},{"week":7,"averageReturn":3.0,"sample":17},{"week":8,"averageReturn":3.4,"sample":17},{"week":9,"averageReturn":3.3,"sample":17},{"week":10,"averageReturn":2.9,"sample":17},{"week":11,"averageReturn":3.8,"sample":17},{"week":12,"averageReturn":4.9,"sample":16},{"week":13,"averageReturn":4.8,"sample":16},{"week":14,"averageReturn":4.8,"sample":16},{"week":15,"averageReturn":3.8,"sample":16},{"week":16,"averageReturn":4.6,"sample":16},{"week":17,"averageReturn":5.5,"sample":16},{"week":18,"averageReturn":6.4,"sample":16},{"week":19,"averageReturn":7.1,"sample":16},{"week":20,"averageReturn":5.8,"sample":16},{"week":21,"averageReturn":6.1,"sample":16},{"week":22,"averageReturn":6.8,"sample":16},{"week":23,"averageReturn":7.3,"sample":15},{"week":24,"averageReturn":7.9,"sample":15},{"week":25,"averageReturn":8.3,"sample":15},{"week":26,"averageReturn":8.7,"sample":15}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":2,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":5.1,"averageExpectedMove":5.1,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":2.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":2,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":-0.9,"medianReturn":-0.9,"confidenceLow":9.5,"confidenceHigh":90.5,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":0,"expectedPercent":0.0,"averageReturn":2.1,"medianReturn":2.1,"confidenceLow":0.0,"confidenceHigh":79.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-1.9,"sample":2},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-2.7,"sample":2},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":2},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":2},{"week":5,"averageReturn":1.7,"sample":2},{"week":6,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":2},{"week":7,"averageReturn":2.7,"sample":2},{"week":8,"averageReturn":1.9,"sample":2},{"week":9,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":2},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-1.7,"sample":2},{"week":11,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":2},{"week":12,"averageReturn":2.1,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-6.4,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-11.1,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-6.4,"sample":1},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Rollover warning","tone":"negative","headline":"Price has moved below distribution as Market Dynamics weakened","use":"The upward trend may still be visible, but this transition increases downside risk. Further price weakness would confirm the rollover.","confirm":"Further price weakness with weak Market Dynamics would confirm the rollover.","invalidate":"A recovery in both price and Market Dynamics would remove the rollover warning.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has moved down through distribution conditions as Market Dynamics contracted. The completed tape now carries a stronger continuation-risk warning.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":22.2,"averageReturn":4.0,"sample":18},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has moved below distribution","detail":"Price left the upper zone as Market Dynamics weakened."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 22.2% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 4.0% across 18 cases.","watch":"A recovery in both price and Market Dynamics would remove the rollover warning."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 50.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 6.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 3.7% across 18 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 4.4 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-05-15","price":23.916609},{"date":"2026-07-31","price":23.59}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2026-05-01","price":25.203821},{"date":"2026-05-29","price":24.368607}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[14.7924,14.946,14.9716,15.3365,15.6068,15.5458,15.8509,16.0253,16.2695,16.2171,15.7812,16.0602,17.1065,17.089,17.1675,17.1152,16.5537,15.8862,16.1443,16.5715,15.9752,16.3134,16.6338,16.5448,16.4736,16.5092,16.1354,16.6961,16.8563,16.3867,16.8146,16.6325,16.3594,15.7858,16.678,16.9966,17.3335,17.3972,17.6066,17.3062,17.9434,17.6885,17.7867,17.9169,17.889,18.0656,18.1493,18.577,18.8095,18.8188,19.5719,19.5998,20.0182,20.3715,20.3343,20.8736,20.6463,20.4758,20.741,19.3488,19.8507,20.3053,20.3337,21.0914,20.5042,20.3243,20.8168,21.3945,21.7922,21.4933,21.4837,21.6476,21.7922,21.744,21.6958,21.6187,22.3997,22.8047,23.4797,23.769,23.2676,22.0497,21.5682,21.7745,22.708,23.5039,23.9068,24.005,25.2038,24.3097,23.9166,24.5651,24.3686,24.29,24.29,24.77,24.72,26.1,26.39,26.11,25.74,23.59,22.41,23.59],"consensus":[31.406,50.1322,31.1888,65.4919,67.1919,27.7386,70.0723,64.2087,62.9712,27.7646,-14.4765,46.3681,76.8109,44.019,46.5855,37.807,-31.0001,-58.6206,0.0,29.9597,-51.3689,30.0665,41.0806,0.0,14.7161,18.2807,-42.0629,41.5303,30.2609,-29.6078,36.3411,-13.7831,-31.7058,-44.4563,32.0295,36.5048,47.1921,40.8969,47.8583,0.0,59.3445,0.0,24.7912,43.5737,16.0848,31.9277,34.3386,59.7076,43.8458,28.3396,71.243,26.331,62.6364,69.2662,37.5142,78.5408,23.3942,10.5736,54.305,-59.3317,18.1954,34.1522,0.0,64.2402,0.0,0.0,41.1838,54.8184,54.4572,13.7134,18.5886,28.8949,30.2895,22.3397,18.1564,0.0,62.692,54.999,66.3237,52.6071,0.0,-49.0118,-48.9088,-15.0301,36.8678,61.1552,57.7068,45.9482,76.0443,0.0,0.0,46.6318,0.0,19.7978,13.3452,30.3063,19.889,46.3901,58.9908,12.524,12.6868,-66.5953,-75.9171,-10.4319],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[63.626,74.6742,34.5519,80.3204,19.9551,8.3261,60.7989,-51.331,30.1041,46.9078,0.0,63.4648,0.0,0.0,43.9816,66.116,50.3203,7.4764,11.1298,32.54,38.8256,25.2876,20.5959,0.0,67.383,58.2996,69.5409,42.8979,0.0,-43.4317,-40.6064,-7.0999,51.6298,62.937,60.8033,49.3959,76.8802,0.0,0.0,52.4574,0.0,27.4285,10.3712,35.8208,20.4253,43.5926,69.0286,1.0556,6.4366,-57.4485,-74.7967,-24.0427],"force":[56.7981,62.4141,5.3516,89.7887,23.1789,30.0619,46.5777,-98.8618,45.7756,42.1121,0.0,82.7473,0.0,0.0,48.971,58.5797,61.5671,22.2003,0.0722,14.9942,19.1117,3.8581,1.6655,0.0,75.8477,49.1553,67.2172,54.2476,0.0,-91.2654,-66.9455,-5.7186,60.4867,75.4427,57.7443,28.1596,92.8768,0.0,0.0,43.453,0.0,8.2762,0.2886,18.7499,1.2548,33.0462,39.2629,31.2277,24.6183,-98.7255,-93.0112,-72.8254],"direction":[65.6757,67.9801,63.8728,68.4729,60.5912,42.1673,52.4029,-40.2397,15.1148,13.8888,0.0,51.9072,0.0,0.0,32.4239,39.2202,54.1064,46.494,40.442,34.6582,28.5181,32.1718,27.1476,0.0,47.934,55.4011,62.0087,62.5317,0.0,-25.2079,-45.5137,-38.9138,3.1264,48.9136,54.1411,54.7139,63.0657,0.0,0.0,42.2445,0.0,19.3067,26.0701,32.2585,32.5863,59.1187,61.6104,56.8821,46.4765,-54.0986,-64.9875,-49.6902],"intensity":[59.6154,48.0769,19.2308,75.0,26.9231,17.3077,34.6154,100.0,90.3846,76.9231,48.0769,88.4615,73.0769,82.6923,61.5385,71.1538,86.5385,30.7692,48.0769,13.4615,7.6923,1.9231,3.8462,5.7692,92.3077,69.2308,82.6923,96.1538,80.7692,98.0769,75.0,25.0,94.2308,94.2308,69.2308,46.1538,98.0769,88.4615,88.4615,67.3077,46.1538,42.3077,30.7692,46.1538,11.5385,100.0,26.9231,28.8462,67.3077,100.0,98.0769,88.4615],"confirmation":[87.8507,89.874,56.4028,93.4487,33.7307,31.2592,85.0431,88.3128,32.3727,78.9769,25.3154,89.1327,31.8567,25.1271,81.3735,85.4844,85.706,8.1249,50.842,76.7672,77.2219,51.8739,50.6036,3.3665,88.3909,85.3713,89.2018,85.0322,10.9538,85.0565,84.327,28.1848,57.6259,87.978,86.4201,82.1087,92.8344,35.6106,6.202,82.7365,4.7276,73.8679,49.2512,77.2618,51.1217,82.4808,86.1229,9.511,8.27,90.4291,92.8315,38.2996],"persistence":[100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,50.0,37.5,37.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,87.5,100.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,75.0,50.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,37.5,50.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,87.5,87.5,100.0,75.0,50.0,50.0],"assessmentRisk":[18.6686,15.3666,31.1431,10.7276,37.4329,12.6683,17.7589,20.083,54.7757,32.8614,35.3508,17.7546,44.6652,3.2162,14.4425,3.211,21.7243,41.5214,32.0508,6.5962,15.1447,18.4691,17.4224,4.1618,15.1748,22.3842,16.8366,23.6963,46.2024,20.9642,25.4928,42.4452,56.338,18.6705,21.1069,26.9708,11.9331,42.8165,2.1673,9.6795,38.5265,11.3202,21.5807,2.4819,17.8131,26.5284,20.4183,42.5417,39.9927,16.5174,12.0352,54.8695],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-10.4,"control":-24.0,"force":-72.8,"direction":-49.7,"confirmation":38.3,"persistence":50.0,"assessmentRisk":54.9,"intensity":88.5,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Present","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-10.4","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-24.0","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-72.8","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-49.7","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"38/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"48.8","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"4.2%","detail":"Elevated","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"42.7","detail":"Directional","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Range position","value":"41%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price is rotating through its trend 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