{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"MFI Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"db8dda35-156e-4b30-96c3-cf2dac849618","symbol":"MFI","name":"Maple Leaf Foods Inc.","exchange":"TOR","country":"CA","asset_type":"equity","currency":"CAD","sector":"Consumer Defensive","industry":"Packaged Foods"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":17,"completedEpisodes":17,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":12.0,"averageExpectedMove":11.4,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.2,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":17,"expectedCount":10,"expectedPercent":58.8,"averageReturn":1.9,"medianReturn":2.4,"confidenceLow":36.0,"confidenceHigh":78.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":17,"expectedCount":8,"expectedPercent":47.1,"averageReturn":1.8,"medianReturn":-1.2,"confidenceLow":26.2,"confidenceHigh":69.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":16,"expectedCount":6,"expectedPercent":37.5,"averageReturn":3.9,"medianReturn":-2.3,"confidenceLow":18.5,"confidenceHigh":61.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.3,"sample":17},{"week":2,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":17},{"week":3,"averageReturn":1.3,"sample":17},{"week":4,"averageReturn":1.9,"sample":17},{"week":5,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":17},{"week":6,"averageReturn":1.8,"sample":17},{"week":7,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":17},{"week":8,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":17},{"week":9,"averageReturn":1.7,"sample":17},{"week":10,"averageReturn":2.5,"sample":17},{"week":11,"averageReturn":3.3,"sample":17},{"week":12,"averageReturn":1.8,"sample":17},{"week":13,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":17},{"week":14,"averageReturn":2.1,"sample":17},{"week":15,"averageReturn":1.7,"sample":17},{"week":16,"averageReturn":1.7,"sample":16},{"week":17,"averageReturn":2.2,"sample":16},{"week":18,"averageReturn":2.8,"sample":16},{"week":19,"averageReturn":3.0,"sample":16},{"week":20,"averageReturn":3.9,"sample":16},{"week":21,"averageReturn":5.9,"sample":16},{"week":22,"averageReturn":5.4,"sample":16},{"week":23,"averageReturn":3.4,"sample":16},{"week":24,"averageReturn":4.2,"sample":16},{"week":25,"averageReturn":5.4,"sample":16},{"week":26,"averageReturn":3.9,"sample":16}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":1,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-4.3,"medianReturn":-4.3,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":1.4,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-4.3,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-5.1,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-9.3,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-7.2,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-8.0,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-13.0,"sample":1},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying support lags price","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"This is a downside risk watch, not a completed reversal. Stronger Market Dynamics or weaker price is needed to close the gap.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":40.0,"averageReturn":4.3,"sample":25},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 40.0% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 4.3% across 25 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 66.7% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 3 cases. Distinct visits lasted 3.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 6.4% across 25 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.0 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2024-11-29","price":18.672863},{"date":"2025-02-28","price":21.095869}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-04-17","price":29.476778},{"date":"2026-07-10","price":29.51}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2026-06-12","price":30.83}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[18.7558,17.9432,17.8439,17.9588,18.008,18.0409,18.4102,18.3774,18.6482,17.6797,17.5156,18.5169,18.5169,18.5662,18.6729,18.5604,18.1295,16.8535,16.6712,16.9861,18.0715,17.4335,17.6158,17.6987,17.6821,17.7649,18.0467,21.0959,20.9976,20.822,20.847,20.847,20.0858,19.7846,20.5543,20.6295,20.847,22.3529,22.3863,22.6624,22.813,23.071,23.5267,23.8642,23.8473,24.1764,25.0203,25.6279,24.8431,24.4127,28.2016,29.3577,30.0834,30.48,29.8709,30.2107,29.7094,30.1427,29.8486,26.8474,27.1055,27.1629,25.7674,22.7281,23.0817,24.4485,24.1904,24.1809,24.7261,24.3022,24.7853,24.5191,24.2529,25.6627,24.9529,24.874,26.4909,27.3585,26.8852,27.6345,28.3148,28.6624,29.149,29.596,29.735,30.9665,29.4768,30.2614,28.3744,29.0994,27.8083,29.1689,29.735,30.46,30.83,31.54,31.26,30.71,29.51,29.27,27.96,28.6,28.36,26.81],"consensus":[0.0,-62.2488,-38.3313,-12.1447,-25.7237,0.0,19.8458,0.0,24.4977,-50.3084,-32.94,38.7064,0.0,15.6484,13.0268,0.0,-31.4545,-67.2795,-46.926,-10.9048,36.9656,-27.1225,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,29.3294,74.2234,42.7418,30.6544,41.8823,25.8759,-21.3833,0.0,38.507,17.5893,32.2051,66.2431,34.5355,47.8301,44.5972,34.9989,51.1711,53.1284,26.5467,50.1483,64.8889,61.3568,0.0,0.0,79.8297,81.1845,70.3299,62.5983,21.6442,44.6652,9.6329,46.7888,11.7305,-62.1282,-10.9237,-26.2411,-64.7782,-81.6844,-30.2617,0.0,-36.4868,-9.5534,0.0,-34.5502,0.0,-27.5743,-27.5713,42.7418,-24.6056,0.0,59.9471,58.2035,0.0,55.8342,53.959,46.6578,50.0548,49.7695,42.5823,71.4076,0.0,49.746,-42.253,10.3836,-41.4058,26.1113,34.4781,38.2841,25.2359,36.9631,25.2144,11.3573,-34.2112,-21.2346,-60.3971,-9.9815,-26.1546,-68.3945],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[68.3335,61.0712,11.355,42.1382,15.9683,62.5371,15.6391,-52.9052,-2.0771,-19.3982,-60.9181,-80.0345,-20.5233,0.0,-28.2878,-11.9847,0.0,-36.6891,0.0,-39.7293,-25.1387,37.4407,-32.4399,0.0,59.8879,63.4052,0.0,54.6335,50.1719,45.8333,45.5667,48.4131,43.0812,76.9029,0.0,56.5696,-40.8506,15.6534,-41.3322,40.0079,35.4447,42.9692,16.9568,33.6253,21.4702,12.5594,-38.2387,-12.4591,-61.1368,-1.1151,-19.6893,-64.8449],"force":[68.2336,48.5458,27.0604,25.5301,38.0938,36.4737,26.2829,-96.9691,-15.5305,-11.931,-75.4129,-95.9929,-14.0593,0.0,-17.0466,-15.9116,0.0,-29.9356,0.0,-20.0751,-21.6831,75.1593,-40.3163,0.0,79.8606,56.9817,0.0,56.7187,55.0238,36.0211,42.6336,35.5896,20.1029,70.9187,0.0,44.4019,-79.209,24.9199,-55.5669,42.9967,36.8185,28.2336,6.9292,21.1105,2.7672,6.0532,-40.0065,-17.0418,-67.7286,-17.3338,-18.025,-86.5247],"direction":[74.109,74.3811,68.1922,61.221,36.4829,36.1587,34.4159,-47.7824,-44.6776,-44.2829,-61.5934,-73.3495,-73.0491,0.0,-59.7428,-24.964,0.0,-35.402,0.0,-19.0393,-34.5572,25.6448,-4.4301,0.0,45.7908,53.1314,0.0,56.5746,57.5264,55.1976,60.485,61.4482,58.0688,65.4764,0.0,45.7647,-17.4586,6.0221,-31.3749,1.8316,31.7018,40.1087,47.774,52.1012,45.527,22.4196,-25.4688,-34.2586,-54.3151,-42.1742,-39.3504,-59.5009],"intensity":[90.3846,40.3846,53.8462,28.8462,46.1538,34.6154,55.7692,94.2308,92.3077,51.9231,84.6154,94.2308,88.4615,78.8462,55.7692,17.3077,71.1538,48.0769,32.6923,7.6923,57.6923,80.7692,55.7692,30.7692,82.6923,76.9231,38.4615,53.8462,61.5385,71.1538,71.1538,38.4615,11.5385,75.0,80.7692,53.8462,86.5385,71.1538,90.3846,71.1538,59.6154,65.3846,51.9231,50.0,11.5385,26.9231,61.5385,55.7692,69.2308,26.9231,9.6154,82.6923],"confirmation":[90.4721,87.6265,34.0382,81.7482,32.3248,82.4181,30.8094,89.0834,6.6438,76.0653,89.1119,94.6002,34.1474,36.8411,79.2082,28.3051,6.1466,78.8829,27.9498,76.41,76.6804,82.7461,53.5665,24.9698,87.7909,86.5086,8.6656,85.9122,85.357,82.6189,83.8598,83.5148,80.9336,90.7518,33.419,83.6519,82.6686,50.3035,81.6826,54.3825,79.0896,79.8732,52.9771,79.3959,52.7749,49.7101,79.0628,74.801,87.5392,6.4665,76.2202,90.4929],"persistence":[75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,87.5,100.0,100.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,62.5,87.5,87.5,75.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,50.0,50.0,37.5,25.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,50.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0],"assessmentRisk":[14.8303,18.6999,34.6867,10.3138,20.8408,38.0405,6.8461,17.9803,41.8974,35.395,17.2178,9.0052,34.7396,47.6867,24.3416,45.7909,41.6333,11.5222,18.5523,26.8127,7.7936,20.7459,19.7511,19.9448,19.8089,19.8454,45.5976,22.04,22.4146,24.1647,24.8425,24.8009,27.3726,14.199,22.4566,10.5239,23.2135,53.65,26.3251,52.8259,26.602,24.6697,37.1434,30.619,32.7053,6.2414,25.8677,38.5743,19.6892,44.2907,30.9726,15.4653],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-68.4,"control":-64.8,"force":-86.5,"direction":-59.5,"confirmation":90.5,"persistence":50.0,"assessmentRisk":15.5,"intensity":82.7,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-68.4","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-64.8","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-86.5","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-59.5","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"90/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"41.1","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"5.4%","detail":"Elevated","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"20.6","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"13%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility 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