{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"TKD Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"dbaf5015-bdb6-42a9-8abd-b90df63693b7","symbol":"TKD","name":"Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited","exchange":"VIE","country":"AT","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Healthcare","industry":"Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic"},"summary":"The technical trend and the underlying tape are moving in opposite directions. Price is holding its upward structure without confirmation from Market Dynamics.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Range position and boundary pressure, Directional strength and control, Directional pressure and rotation."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"The technical trend and the underlying tape are moving in opposite directions. Price is holding its upward structure without confirmation from Market Dynamics.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Evidence conflict","headline":"Price structure is upward, but Market Dynamics is negative","summary":"The technical trend and the underlying tape are moving in opposite directions. Price is holding its upward structure without confirmation from Market Dynamics.","take":"The gap can close through improving Market Dynamics or weakening price. 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The Market Dynamics bars describe whether the current move is gaining or losing underlying support.","tone":"negative"},"chartSummary":"Price is between the outer positioning zones. The Market Dynamics bars show whether underlying support is strengthening or weakening.","summary":"Price is between the accumulation and distribution zones. 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evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":17},{"week":2,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":16},{"week":3,"averageReturn":0.1,"sample":16},{"week":4,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":16},{"week":5,"averageReturn":0.9,"sample":16},{"week":6,"averageReturn":2.0,"sample":15},{"week":7,"averageReturn":2.4,"sample":15},{"week":8,"averageReturn":1.8,"sample":14},{"week":9,"averageReturn":2.1,"sample":12},{"week":10,"averageReturn":1.7,"sample":10},{"week":11,"averageReturn":1.2,"sample":9},{"week":12,"averageReturn":0.9,"sample":9},{"week":13,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":9},{"week":14,"averageReturn":0.7,"sample":7},{"week":15,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":7},{"week":16,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":6},{"week":17,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":5},{"week":18,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":5},{"week":19,"averageReturn":1.3,"sample":5},{"week":20,"averageReturn":1.9,"sample":3},{"week":21,"averageReturn":3.8,"sample":2},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-4.8,"sample":1},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Evidence conflict","tone":"negative","headline":"Market Dynamics is negative while price remains rotational","use":"Treat the pressure as context until price establishes a clear response.","confirm":"The gap can close through improving Market Dynamics or weakening price. Until one occurs, the upward structure carries elevated reversal risk and should not be read as fully aligned.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price is between the accumulation and distribution zones. The Market Dynamics bars describe whether the current move is gaining or losing underlying support.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":0.0,"averageReturn":9.5,"sample":10},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price structure is upward","detail":"Price is responding in the same broad direction as Market Dynamics."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 0.0% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 9.5% across 10 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 0.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 26.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 1.8% across 10 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 3.3 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[1252.8945,1252.8945,1244.9913,1235.2285,1244.5265,-426.8384,-440.0291,-441.7202,-440.7055,-425.1472,-435.2939,-435.2939,-436.1395,-432.7573,-434.7866,-440.7055,-433.4337,-425.9928,-428.8677,-432.2499,-431.2353,-426.8384,-417.8754,-439.6909,-446.2862,-437.3233,-448.3156,-465.0576,-469.6237,-465.0576,-475.8808,182.2192,181.4796,165.4766,172.4695,176.2349,181.4124,173.8815,170.0489,171.3264,175.697,175.966,176.5711,171.3264,174.285,174.9574,170.4523,169.3765,166.9559,163.3922,167.6283,171.1247,177.7142,171.8643,176.8401,174.0832,173.3436,167.6955,-55.3623,-53.508,-53.7537,-53.8654,-52.2345,-51.9664,-54.6921,-54.6474,-55.3846,-54.7144,-54.1559,-56.5017,-58.289,-59.071,-61.9754,-61.8413,-60.9477,-64.3659,-66.7565,-69.08,-70.3981,-70.5992,-68.0523,-69.2364,-67.7842,-69.08,32.16,30.66,30.29,28.36,28.71,28.35,28.67,27.67,27.46,27.08,27.6,26.76,27.77,29.03,28.85,29.76,30.58,29.83,30.18,30.43],"consensus":[38.899,26.9546,16.2709,12.1491,17.4769,-82.1806,-66.7661,-65.4529,-64.8844,-22.2638,-54.2362,-51.6028,-51.4789,-44.8548,-49.8924,-28.2479,-18.0523,-23.6816,-44.9903,-43.4363,-13.4272,-10.1146,0.0,-42.4112,-41.436,0.0,-42.6676,-46.1123,-12.2966,0.0,-44.2471,82.0316,40.3652,40.024,57.2737,28.9154,54.5333,21.4929,48.8092,39.7557,40.9838,43.7361,29.1142,14.4328,41.7078,24.8448,0.0,12.0841,9.9163,0.0,32.6069,28.3491,35.3851,0.0,29.1587,0.0,0.0,-22.1001,-74.7334,-35.5816,-37.4471,-37.2715,-22.2612,-23.515,-55.7802,-49.423,-42.1297,-24.4692,-21.7406,-50.0997,-49.6181,-23.824,-52.8545,-34.1445,-20.4802,-53.8707,-51.7139,-54.3796,-52.3506,-45.3734,0.0,-36.6549,9.1483,-12.7442,84.2137,34.8337,64.8497,32.4341,50.6037,26.436,51.0838,19.4463,32.4469,47.4895,47.9972,42.4512,49.2873,36.7931,17.5182,53.6268,51.8968,9.2986,38.8262,-28.8883],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[43.9553,0.0,37.222,0.0,0.0,-19.5615,-71.4446,-15.625,-17.3032,-16.9224,-15.0278,-15.3536,-63.4678,-58.9032,-43.4197,-12.1594,-11.7545,-61.8391,-61.0372,-13.1421,-63.3772,-35.0399,-16.0704,-63.9043,-62.7124,-63.7871,-60.1469,-55.2726,0.0,-54.881,2.1319,-23.536,86.0578,14.5977,60.9127,11.2182,62.0431,23.3209,60.9247,11.4202,33.1728,57.6381,58.717,52.7062,59.0735,34.9652,9.5996,60.1961,59.272,4.9836,47.5546,-36.8365],"force":[31.0145,0.0,25.9832,0.0,0.0,-42.5038,-64.6213,-6.1062,-2.1832,-1.8989,-25.99,-21.8123,-28.3306,-12.1511,-6.0466,-11.6353,-13.402,-18.1931,-18.5509,-7.238,-25.254,-4.8165,-7.5374,-45.6781,-42.5626,-48.4976,-45.6361,-33.9866,0.0,-28.9314,43.5063,-0.4468,78.5425,8.3671,36.8633,12.0641,17.4161,18.2802,20.0092,27.577,5.8984,18.5785,20.9696,12.6891,27.4847,11.215,17.5239,41.1825,39.6092,26.2371,25.2253,-10.916],"direction":[28.7124,0.0,22.2118,0.0,0.0,-10.4272,-85.7149,-88.1662,-88.7762,-88.5064,-64.993,-65.219,-66.6012,-65.2113,-66.4292,-64.3265,-58.2551,-59.4736,-58.7585,-58.2189,-60.5432,-54.0697,-45.5326,-48.2555,-4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Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the Market Dynamics view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics disagree. The completed evidence gives the downward Market Dynamics view stronger support.","take":"Current assessment: the visible price structure remains vulnerable until Market Dynamics changes.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":true},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Commitment is limited","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Established","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-28.9","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-36.8","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-10.9","detail":"Commitment is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-32.6","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"45/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"67.6","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"13.2%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"37.7","detail":"Directional","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Range position","value":"98%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its 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