{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"RNO Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"dd114f8e-f6f6-4a35-be09-acb3b3754ff7","symbol":"RNO","name":"Renault SA","exchange":"PAR","country":"FR","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Consumer Cyclical","industry":"Auto Manufacturers"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":22,"completedEpisodes":21,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":17.6,"averageExpectedMove":17.2,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":8.4,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":22,"expectedCount":13,"expectedPercent":59.1,"averageReturn":1.4,"medianReturn":1.1,"confidenceLow":38.7,"confidenceHigh":76.7,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":21,"expectedCount":11,"expectedPercent":52.4,"averageReturn":6.9,"medianReturn":5.5,"confidenceLow":32.4,"confidenceHigh":71.7,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":20,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":45.0,"averageReturn":5.1,"medianReturn":-3.2,"confidenceLow":25.8,"confidenceHigh":65.8,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.5,"sample":22},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-0.5,"sample":22},{"week":3,"averageReturn":1.7,"sample":22},{"week":4,"averageReturn":1.4,"sample":22},{"week":5,"averageReturn":1.7,"sample":22},{"week":6,"averageReturn":2.9,"sample":22},{"week":7,"averageReturn":3.1,"sample":22},{"week":8,"averageReturn":4.2,"sample":22},{"week":9,"averageReturn":5.8,"sample":22},{"week":10,"averageReturn":5.4,"sample":22},{"week":11,"averageReturn":5.9,"sample":21},{"week":12,"averageReturn":6.9,"sample":21},{"week":13,"averageReturn":5.4,"sample":21},{"week":14,"averageReturn":5.3,"sample":21},{"week":15,"averageReturn":5.2,"sample":20},{"week":16,"averageReturn":5.2,"sample":20},{"week":17,"averageReturn":6.7,"sample":20},{"week":18,"averageReturn":6.6,"sample":20},{"week":19,"averageReturn":5.0,"sample":20},{"week":20,"averageReturn":5.2,"sample":20},{"week":21,"averageReturn":5.5,"sample":20},{"week":22,"averageReturn":4.8,"sample":20},{"week":23,"averageReturn":4.6,"sample":20},{"week":24,"averageReturn":4.7,"sample":20},{"week":25,"averageReturn":4.6,"sample":20},{"week":26,"averageReturn":5.1,"sample":20}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"caution","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":52.4,"averageReturn":6.9,"sample":21},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 52.4% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of 6.9% across 21 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 17.2% across 21 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 8.4 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-05-08","price":28.6},{"date":"2026-06-12","price":27.77},{"date":"2026-08-07","price":28.639999}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2025-02-21","price":43.217686}],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[38.2631,38.0681,35.7547,34.6911,34.0973,36.5968,32.7678,34.8684,35.8788,38.201,36.4106,36.065,36.4993,35.7282,35.9231,38.724,39.6812,41.4982,41.5248,40.8423,40.5853,43.2265,43.5456,44.0065,43.5722,46.5326,43.2177,44.1749,42.1984,42.8366,41.7907,42.1009,39.2203,37.882,38.9012,41.4716,41.9945,44.2929,45.594,44.2,42.174,39.9621,39.9993,35.8823,37.2577,37.6759,38.2893,31.2448,31.9883,29.9158,30.1389,30.7708,31.189,31.2262,30.6779,31.9418,32.8712,32.295,33.2522,31.9046,31.9604,31.9418,31.3191,31.6351,33.689,31.8953,32.0347,34.5719,34.5068,33.6983,33.2057,33.7912,31.4121,29.5813,30.0366,29.6277,28.6891,30.4827,30.0645,29.8415,26.4958,26.4586,25.6873,26.2913,27.9735,28.7913,30.2225,27.6575,27.6668,28.6,28.39,27.86,29.59,26.81,27.77,28.08,26.07,26.37,25.81,26.14,26.14,27.55,28.64,28.63],"consensus":[0.0,-19.4378,-53.205,-43.1002,-45.1587,13.7999,-65.3427,9.8774,12.0913,40.6684,-17.6189,0.0,8.5279,-25.3129,0.0,51.0423,38.9896,57.6203,34.7575,10.9475,9.8394,57.1587,36.8514,41.5841,30.1538,68.3938,-22.8365,31.8511,-29.7105,0.0,-22.6672,-13.0082,-49.3132,-37.3088,-19.9965,25.215,20.056,53.8196,47.3855,0.0,-26.398,-50.0232,-30.4902,-70.0981,-8.0687,-17.5896,-8.5752,-75.1912,-20.6815,-71.2263,-25.8308,-14.8894,-16.7066,-17.1653,-31.718,11.3755,13.7782,-11.2647,25.2182,-33.4815,-8.6121,-12.3317,-25.2895,0.0,42.5775,-26.3338,0.0,55.5594,22.3293,0.0,0.0,20.7538,-47.8697,-61.2318,-15.4101,-35.09,-46.8294,21.4939,-15.8035,-16.7305,-69.2412,-32.8079,-49.8772,-14.8527,24.1851,22.559,48.1386,-34.6514,-11.4065,15.0152,0.0,-12.7648,40.2334,-42.8978,0.0,14.2953,-39.8263,0.0,-17.6433,-15.468,-8.3954,31.458,44.9748,27.4907],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-11.1205,-23.9237,-39.9299,11.1581,8.2768,-18.376,20.907,-41.2183,-6.1515,-15.4252,-22.3897,0.0,39.4752,-29.9724,0.0,49.057,21.6103,0.0,0.0,31.6515,-43.5561,-65.873,-8.5369,-32.3315,-44.6189,20.1808,-16.3886,-23.1355,-71.8195,-27.984,-49.7554,-2.4992,24.6706,18.1463,47.1119,-44.9464,-13.4237,15.4169,0.0,-17.1469,37.7207,-52.364,0.0,19.6932,-41.0501,0.0,-7.6038,-10.9742,-9.8133,26.2686,41.5551,24.562],"force":[-13.5614,-5.9528,-19.9119,44.867,34.5393,-11.423,40.014,-49.8064,-0.1194,-8.8596,-26.3836,0.0,60.6074,-51.0471,0.0,80.328,9.1358,0.0,0.0,21.2585,-73.8897,-71.1393,-12.2336,-23.3189,-47.2268,60.138,-16.3154,-10.2717,-89.0451,-8.3123,-38.3474,-18.0453,58.5237,36.7836,60.5096,-63.1354,-4.0457,33.768,0.0,-17.1535,55.242,-43.1414,0.0,23.0469,-34.0857,0.0,-3.0932,-2.6918,-4.1089,57.073,55.0259,13.7168],"direction":[-44.7106,-25.9544,-30.7658,12.2985,5.2362,-3.0243,19.5769,-12.9788,-17.4904,-11.2764,-27.8221,0.0,33.2445,-4.5232,0.0,45.2989,32.5749,0.0,0.0,7.9388,-34.2138,-48.8509,-43.0107,-46.6506,-49.072,4.6082,-14.7691,-14.0239,-52.1488,-55.8178,-58.2518,-52.4696,0.8972,17.4417,40.4754,-2.5399,-14.3588,1.1613,0.0,-4.6219,32.3847,-31.9051,0.0,1.8751,-42.5282,0.0,-39.5098,-33.5751,-15.7066,19.0925,41.7035,40.6762],"intensity":[5.7692,9.6154,7.6923,28.8462,44.2308,11.5385,21.1538,34.6154,32.6923,21.1538,46.1538,11.5385,57.6923,53.8462,46.1538,73.0769,44.2308,17.3077,50.0,7.6923,73.0769,78.8462,25.0,26.9231,26.9231,59.6154,15.3846,34.6154,90.3846,61.5385,17.3077,9.6154,61.5385,53.8462,51.9231,86.5385,61.5385,23.0769,17.3077,3.8462,71.1538,92.3077,30.7692,1.9231,78.8462,1.9231,23.0769,53.8462,19.2308,75.0,44.2308,3.8462],"confirmation":[30.0685,51.2886,77.6648,29.9545,50.4589,48.8345,76.5864,79.0937,25.2012,71.7932,76.1702,25.0295,82.2216,54.4579,1.514,86.6329,74.7542,28.8232,26.6834,51.8239,84.177,87.8254,29.47,78.9121,83.0312,54.3922,73.0638,73.0593,90.7214,77.8255,83.6112,7.7882,54.3031,75.7196,83.797,57.133,48.7283,50.7036,24.9536,49.485,81.3704,81.5905,24.9195,50.0923,80.5508,4.0956,28.0221,50.3724,48.4937,78.9263,82.7503,76.4219],"persistence":[100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,50.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,25.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,25.0,50.0,37.5,50.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,0.0,0.0,12.5,25.0,25.0,50.0,25.0,12.5,12.5],"assessmentRisk":[8.1672,34.1311,27.4162,17.4053,25.9056,29.1717,29.3585,15.8593,33.3142,12.3315,36.9006,15.9224,26.786,10.9065,28.7004,21.475,19.0138,45.0308,38.5027,39.7697,25.2799,19.1453,41.3105,32.2262,24.6927,18.4659,8.9957,16.692,12.2748,33.4142,24.957,42.1211,26.8621,35.7728,25.8315,53.7465,4.5412,13.9217,42.3564,13.6107,22.9656,21.5188,19.199,0.7209,29.1905,11.632,35.4927,37.2006,7.227,21.5758,26.5046,34.5269],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":27.5,"control":24.6,"force":13.7,"direction":40.7,"confirmation":76.4,"persistence":12.5,"assessmentRisk":34.5,"intensity":3.8,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+27.5","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+24.6","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+13.7","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+40.7","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"76/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"51.6","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"6.2%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"13.4","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"54%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility 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Market Dynamics construction and private inputs are not disclosed. Historical research is not a forecast or instruction to trade."}