{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"AEGN Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"e03d3ff3-c086-4abe-9414-4c96cdd1be02","symbol":"AEGN","name":"Aegean Airlines S.A.","exchange":"ATH","country":"GR","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Airlines"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. The upward price structure is leading its underlying support.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Range position and boundary pressure, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Range pressure and compression."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":17,"completedEpisodes":16,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":10.8,"averageExpectedMove":15.6,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.1,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":17,"expectedCount":10,"expectedPercent":58.8,"averageReturn":3.4,"medianReturn":6.0,"confidenceLow":36.0,"confidenceHigh":78.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":16,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":56.2,"averageReturn":8.1,"medianReturn":2.7,"confidenceLow":33.2,"confidenceHigh":76.9,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":15,"expectedCount":10,"expectedPercent":66.7,"averageReturn":17.2,"medianReturn":11.0,"confidenceLow":41.7,"confidenceHigh":84.8,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":2.4,"sample":17},{"week":2,"averageReturn":3.9,"sample":17},{"week":3,"averageReturn":3.1,"sample":17},{"week":4,"averageReturn":3.4,"sample":17},{"week":5,"averageReturn":2.2,"sample":16},{"week":6,"averageReturn":2.4,"sample":16},{"week":7,"averageReturn":2.8,"sample":16},{"week":8,"averageReturn":5.9,"sample":16},{"week":9,"averageReturn":5.9,"sample":16},{"week":10,"averageReturn":6.6,"sample":16},{"week":11,"averageReturn":7.8,"sample":16},{"week":12,"averageReturn":8.1,"sample":16},{"week":13,"averageReturn":9.5,"sample":16},{"week":14,"averageReturn":11.0,"sample":16},{"week":15,"averageReturn":10.5,"sample":16},{"week":16,"averageReturn":10.1,"sample":16},{"week":17,"averageReturn":11.0,"sample":16},{"week":18,"averageReturn":12.6,"sample":16},{"week":19,"averageReturn":12.0,"sample":16},{"week":20,"averageReturn":12.6,"sample":16},{"week":21,"averageReturn":12.5,"sample":16},{"week":22,"averageReturn":12.3,"sample":16},{"week":23,"averageReturn":15.3,"sample":16},{"week":24,"averageReturn":16.7,"sample":16},{"week":25,"averageReturn":16.1,"sample":16},{"week":26,"averageReturn":17.2,"sample":15}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":4,"completedEpisodes":4,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":14.2,"averageExpectedMove":12.9,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":10.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":4,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":75.0,"averageReturn":-1.8,"medianReturn":-1.9,"confidenceLow":30.1,"confidenceHigh":95.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":4,"expectedCount":4,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-7.9,"medianReturn":-7.1,"confidenceLow":51.0,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Historically consistent"},{"weeks":26,"sample":4,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":75.0,"averageReturn":-6.0,"medianReturn":-5.8,"confidenceLow":30.1,"confidenceHigh":95.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":4},{"week":2,"averageReturn":0.1,"sample":4},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":4},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-1.8,"sample":4},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-1.9,"sample":4},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-5.0,"sample":4},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-5.2,"sample":4},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-5.0,"sample":4},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-6.8,"sample":4},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-7.0,"sample":4},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-10.1,"sample":4},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-7.9,"sample":4},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-10.2,"sample":4},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-15.7,"sample":4},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-12.6,"sample":4},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-12.1,"sample":4},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-10.2,"sample":4},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-10.2,"sample":4},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-9.9,"sample":4},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-7.6,"sample":4},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-8.9,"sample":4},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-9.1,"sample":4},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-6.4,"sample":4},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-7.9,"sample":4},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-7.8,"sample":4},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-6.0,"sample":4}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Price ahead of underlying support","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-downside risk watch. Stronger Market Dynamics would confirm the price move; a weaker price response would confirm that the gap is closing through correction.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":47.1,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":17},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 47.1% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 0.8% across 17 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 4 cases. Distinct visits lasted 3.2 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 7.4% across 17 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.2 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-01-03","price":9.031426}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2025-09-05","price":12.588255},{"date":"2026-02-20","price":12.978155}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2025-08-15","price":13.460892},{"date":"2025-11-28","price":13.312358},{"date":"2025-12-19","price":13.312358},{"date":"2026-01-23","price":13.572291}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[9.5627,9.5104,9.9633,9.3188,9.3362,9.6672,9.223,8.7353,9.1882,8.8398,8.6221,8.5742,8.4392,8.3434,8.2563,8.7527,8.9705,8.7701,8.7963,9.0314,9.0314,8.8137,9.4495,9.4669,9.1446,9.3624,9.9285,9.3798,9.5191,10.242,10.5642,10.6949,9.5453,9.9285,10.033,10.2768,10.4859,10.9387,11.3394,11.3257,11.9384,11.9756,11.5114,10.5645,11.3071,11.5856,11.957,11.827,11.7156,11.4928,12.2912,13.4609,13.5537,13.3124,12.5883,13.1824,12.8853,12.6997,12.5511,12.644,12.2912,12.2541,12.2355,12.4397,12.7925,12.5326,13.3124,13.3309,13.0339,13.3124,13.4609,13.4238,13.5723,13.071,13.5723,13.8879,13.9251,13.6094,12.9782,12.7368,10.7501,11.3071,11.14,10.8244,10.9729,11.6228,12.6811,11.5299,11.15,11.31,11.08,11.66,12.39,12.13,12.17,12.7,12.91,12.96,12.36,11.7,11.74,12.15,12.37,12.4],"consensus":[0.0,-20.4543,34.9301,-48.1358,-12.7323,22.9337,-49.5546,-62.7493,10.3562,-53.5069,-53.2351,-29.4164,-45.7264,-25.8774,-44.6339,27.554,31.0536,-18.9986,0.0,36.5539,0.0,-20.8471,59.9831,32.7933,0.0,40.547,68.5716,-23.6279,27.3819,71.4647,63.1376,46.887,-40.0489,31.2766,0.0,20.6953,47.7774,58.1908,65.7736,30.9975,73.4064,39.6808,0.0,-48.4391,35.8141,29.1808,44.9789,28.1515,8.0809,-14.3448,53.59,74.8851,48.2703,18.0919,-13.829,41.7386,0.0,-9.6592,0.0,0.0,-31.0654,-23.7821,-17.034,0.0,31.7026,-9.2609,54.667,32.8511,0.0,43.4251,35.1927,23.1955,38.3086,-31.291,45.3734,43.6439,27.4492,0.0,-43.7682,-39.563,-83.1478,0.0,-48.1933,-51.3787,-18.3954,11.5221,56.5177,-36.6815,-37.247,-11.8802,-39.5385,25.0858,48.9171,8.1819,19.5468,47.0185,39.3555,30.4824,-10.7072,-51.4694,-18.6719,16.0405,19.3715,25.0705],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[50.5813,7.2088,-23.3672,56.0791,0.0,-4.3035,0.0,0.0,-25.4808,-23.8806,-14.071,0.0,28.6206,-13.5658,52.6722,33.4161,0.0,46.6468,46.0942,30.2541,42.2739,-32.4499,47.0569,36.9295,26.8956,0.0,-39.8194,-37.4042,-85.2965,0.0,-43.9614,-48.4799,-22.899,13.4132,52.8792,-42.1642,-43.4273,-10.373,-38.147,29.7345,49.8809,1.2737,13.1545,53.2946,44.0524,26.1206,-22.3604,-54.4327,-12.6945,33.661,23.397,24.0167],"force":[23.4747,21.6048,-53.8745,43.6003,0.0,-26.0992,0.0,0.0,-45.241,-19.5153,-11.7447,0.0,47.5294,-23.7127,73.3688,19.4676,0.0,45.6042,26.0704,10.3588,31.1099,-60.5028,72.4713,58.4984,15.7422,0.0,-65.1528,-34.3757,-98.9633,0.0,-32.9267,-36.2566,-14.093,45.7265,91.2541,-68.7383,-46.0546,-7.763,-35.7318,53.4858,61.5384,4.503,12.9469,37.8044,23.6703,10.0409,-28.1046,-68.1826,-5.3656,30.512,22.6551,21.9197],"direction":[63.3404,58.8845,-25.6758,24.0195,0.0,-4.0372,0.0,0.0,-27.3224,-26.7174,-24.1984,0.0,23.9199,-5.9818,43.5882,41.7651,0.0,38.1866,29.2499,24.2977,38.9187,-9.1011,24.0937,40.707,36.444,0.0,-33.0065,-45.7354,-69.3953,0.0,-63.9344,-65.4932,-36.4545,15.0709,35.8641,-7.5178,-23.8928,-27.6336,-43.848,0.5127,38.8004,28.0489,31.5666,46.4273,45.1914,50.0685,-15.0375,-36.1449,-35.0076,14.434,12.4254,28.5253],"intensity":[80.7692,46.1538,82.6923,71.1538,28.8462,46.1538,26.9231,7.6923,46.1538,25.0,15.3846,15.3846,63.4615,26.9231,84.6154,28.8462,38.4615,32.6923,7.6923,1.9231,23.0769,59.6154,61.5385,90.3846,9.6154,38.4615,75.0,71.1538,100.0,82.6923,86.5385,46.1538,5.7692,73.0769,94.2308,94.2308,53.8462,7.6923,42.3077,61.5385,92.3077,28.8462,5.7692,59.6154,32.6923,9.6154,71.1538,75.0,21.1538,53.8462,53.8462,7.6923],"confirmation":[82.6556,9.3545,33.6445,81.1946,27.254,26.3403,24.6783,26.6137,78.458,75.4787,73.3348,26.6775,78.6741,49.9478,86.0938,78.0959,29.1469,81.9133,78.8175,74.9238,79.9789,78.8857,83.3197,82.5211,76.4354,30.2234,82.7177,80.535,95.0565,14.0349,83.0211,84.0245,30.501,30.5825,87.1997,57.9648,80.0933,50.2154,80.5575,54.2649,84.0234,26.2747,74.1512,82.6695,80.0442,77.1979,29.6536,84.9344,50.9939,31.0514,74.2376,83.9426],"persistence":[75.0,75.0,50.0,50.0,37.5,37.5,25.0,12.5,12.5,37.5,37.5,50.0,37.5,37.5,25.0,12.5,0.0,25.0,50.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,62.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,50.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0],"assessmentRisk":[25.7362,40.8255,30.1566,42.9625,39.3704,37.3215,0.9489,42.9948,25.9038,23.6868,19.6422,23.4868,29.858,39.4001,22.2566,33.1111,35.594,27.7195,5.5519,3.7889,28.3849,16.8568,6.4587,22.3577,25.5176,48.0586,23.8181,30.1404,8.4232,47.5897,25.6172,24.0971,26.2286,16.4235,20.3309,54.6855,30.1467,13.5898,28.7917,4.2041,21.2024,40.3796,38.1871,23.9334,16.9135,29.8934,21.3791,22.151,40.2898,56.0535,8.4831,34.3738],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":25.1,"control":24.0,"force":21.9,"direction":28.5,"confirmation":83.9,"persistence":25.0,"assessmentRisk":34.4,"intensity":7.7,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint upward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the upward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same upward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has broad support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+25.1","detail":"Joint upward confirmation","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+24.0","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+21.9","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+28.5","detail":"Upward 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