{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"MCAP Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-21","ticker":{"uuid":"e1af1fc5-6b2d-4997-b894-92268a9d802a","symbol":"MCAP","name":"Manulife Conservative ETF Portfolio","exchange":"TOR","country":"CA","asset_type":"etf","currency":"CAD","sector":null,"industry":null},"summary":"The completed price path and its progression through the positioning zones can be described, but there is not enough usable Market Dynamics history to confirm or challenge the technical state.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Completed returns and cumulative progression, Range expansion and closing direction, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Range pressure and compression."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-21","observations":17,"displayedObservations":17,"assetType":"ETF","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"The completed price path and its progression through the positioning zones can be described, but there is not enough usable Market Dynamics history to confirm or challenge the technical state.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Evidence developing","headline":"Price structure is visible; Market Dynamics is not yet established","summary":"The completed price path and its progression through the positioning zones can be described, but there is not enough usable Market Dynamics history to confirm or challenge the technical state.","take":"Treat movement through the zones as price-location context only. Reaching the upper zone shows extension, but without an established Market Dynamics read it does not by itself establish active distribution, divergence or reversal risk.","tone":"neutral","conflict":false},"marketDynamics":{"available":true,"readAvailable":false,"dates":["2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"values":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"opens":[9.941298,9.921416,10.020829,9.941298,10.140124,10.129272,10.189091,10.278819,10.203074,10.194127,10.194127,10.144253,10.124304,10.154228,10.13,10.22,10.23],"highs":[9.941298,9.991005,10.030771,10.020829,10.597851,10.129272,10.189091,10.278819,10.203074,10.194127,10.194127,10.174177,10.263949,10.244,10.24,10.27,10.65],"lows":[9.941298,9.871711,9.991005,9.921416,10.100359,10.109333,10.189091,10.278819,10.203074,10.194127,10.194127,10.144253,10.114329,10.124304,10.13,10.2,10.16],"closes":[9.941298,9.961182,10.030771,10.020829,10.597851,10.109333,10.189091,10.278819,10.203074,10.194127,10.194127,10.154228,10.144253,10.14,10.22,10.24,10.18],"hoverRows":[[{"label":"Open","value":"9.94","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"High","value":"9.94","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Low","value":"9.94","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Close","value":"9.94","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Market 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Dynamics","value":"Unavailable","note":"Insufficient completed history","className":"is-muted","wide":true},{"label":"Signal / event","value":"No event marker","className":"is-muted","wide":true}],[{"label":"Open","value":"10.2","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"High","value":"10.2","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Low","value":"10.1","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Close","value":"10.1","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Market Dynamics","value":"Unavailable","note":"Insufficient completed history","className":"is-muted","wide":true},{"label":"Signal / event","value":"No event marker","className":"is-muted","wide":true}],[{"label":"Open","value":"10.1","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"High","value":"10.2","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Low","value":"10.1","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Close","value":"10.2","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Market Dynamics","value":"Unavailable","note":"Insufficient completed history","className":"is-muted","wide":true},{"label":"Signal / event","value":"No event marker","className":"is-muted","wide":true}],[{"label":"Open","value":"10.2","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"High","value":"10.3","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Low","value":"10.2","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Close","value":"10.2","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Market Dynamics","value":"Unavailable","note":"Insufficient completed history","className":"is-muted","wide":true},{"label":"Signal / event","value":"No event marker","className":"is-muted","wide":true}],[{"label":"Open","value":"10.2","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"High","value":"10.7","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Low","value":"10.2","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Close","value":"10.2","className":"is-ohlc","compact":true},{"label":"Market Dynamics","value":"Unavailable","note":"Insufficient completed history","className":"is-muted","wide":true},{"label":"Signal / event","value":"No event marker","className":"is-muted","wide":true}]],"pressureRange":[-2.3,2.3],"priceRange":[9.901905,10.637244],"zones":{"accumulationBoundary":-1.5,"accumulationDarkBoundary":-2.0,"distributionBoundary":1.5,"distributionDarkBoundary":2.0},"state":"Insufficient history","context":{"scenario":"developing","latestDirection":"steady","fourWeekDirection":"steady","now":{"label":"Little changed this week","detail":"Market Dynamics remains positive and was little changed this week."},"fourWeek":{"label":"Broadly steady over four weeks","detail":"The broader path has not changed enough to establish a new direction."},"price":{"label":"Price and Market Dynamics are broadly aligned","detail":"The current price response is broadly consistent with the underlying Market Dynamics path."}},"diagnosis":{"label":"Zone progression","detail":"Price is travelling between the lower accumulation area and the upper positioning zone. Market Dynamics history is not yet sufficient to confirm or challenge that progression.","tone":"neutral"},"chartSummary":"Price is between the outer positioning zones. The Market Dynamics bars show whether underlying support is strengthening or weakening.","summary":"Price is travelling between the lower accumulation area and the upper positioning zone. Market Dynamics history is not yet sufficient to confirm or challenge that progression.","annotations":[{"label":"Current tape relationship","value":"Zone progression","detail":"Market Dynamics remains positive and was little changed this week.","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Price location","value":"Between zones","detail":"Price is progressing between the lower and upper positioning zones while the Market Dynamics read develops.","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Latest positioning marker","value":"None in view","detail":"Entering the lower zone alone does not create a positioning confirmation.","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Market Dynamics confirmation","value":"Unavailable","detail":"Too little usable Market Dynamics history is available for a directional confirmation read.","tone":"neutral"}],"relationshipEvidence":{"available":false,"observations":17,"summary":"More completed weekly history is needed for a dependable ticker-level record."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"reversal_warnings":[{"date":"2026-05-15","price":10.030771}],"reversal_dangers":[{"date":"2026-05-22","price":10.020829}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"close":[9.9413,9.9612,10.0308,10.0208,10.5979,10.1093,10.1891,10.2788,10.2031,10.1941,10.1941,10.1542,10.1443,10.14,10.22,10.24,10.18],"consensus":[0.0,50.0008,100.0,100.0,100.0,0.0,46.5639,59.8186,0.0,25.8387,18.0862,-24.1514,-13.4018,-15.6495,52.7297,38.193,-21.8004],"supportDates":["2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"control":[null,null,null,null,null,0.0,43.462,49.7084,0.0,18.131,19.3002,-10.2307,-4.6788,-10.2748,48.7231,31.4675,-21.7682],"force":[0.0,50.0008,100.0,100.0,100.0,0.0,25.5458,54.9132,0.0,4.7779,0.6827,-54.4223,-23.1958,-22.3149,79.6026,27.4491,-64.8038],"direction":[null,null,null,null,100.0,0.0,65.1218,74.8768,0.0,49.6908,29.1297,-18.4386,-16.3751,-17.0311,38.1137,53.5535,-8.8796],"intensity":[null,null,null,null,100.0,80.0,50.0,57.1429,37.5,11.1111,10.0,27.2727,75.0,23.0769,64.2857,46.6667,87.5],"confirmation":[0.0,38.6669,54.6667,54.6667,77.3333,33.5805,82.3072,87.1465,5.6342,53.0773,50.572,76.8631,50.0533,73.2929,85.7535,79.9968,32.8482],"persistence":[null,null,66.6667,75.0,80.0,66.6667,71.4286,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0],"assessmentRisk":[null,null,null,null,0.4194,21.7107,0.3041,5.9079,43.0729,3.0587,8.0073,12.4169,6.2037,4.5538,20.3708,0.0895,19.1305],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-21.8,"control":-21.8,"force":-64.8,"direction":-8.9,"confirmation":32.8,"persistence":0.0,"assessmentRisk":19.1,"intensity":87.5,"evidenceDepth":65},"analysis":{"status":"Completed tape has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Completed tape","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-21.8","detail":"Completed tape has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-21.8","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-64.8","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-8.9","detail":"Follow-through is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"33/100","detail":"Limited support","tone":"caution"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"59.0","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"1.1%","detail":"Elevated","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"-","detail":"Developing","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"40%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price is rotating through its trend references.","series":[{"label":"Close","values":[9.9413,9.9612,10.0308,10.0208,10.5979,10.1093,10.1891,10.2788,10.2031,10.1941,10.1941,10.1542,10.1443,10.14,10.22,10.24,10.18],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.1},{"label":"Fast trend","values":[null,null,null,null,10.0854,10.0897,10.1078,10.1389,10.1506,10.1585,10.165,10.163,10.1596,10.156,10.1677,10.1808,10.1807],"stroke":"#176fa3","width":1.7},{"label":"Slow trend","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,10.0849,10.089,10.0987,10.1091,10.1144],"stroke":"#07865c","width":1.8},{"label":"Upper envelope","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,10.5188,10.5063,10.4912,10.4772,10.4645,10.4602,10.4584,10.4506],"stroke":"#98a9b8","width":1.0,"dash":[6,5]},{"label":"Lower envelope","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,9.7865,9.8065,9.8212,9.8334,9.8439,9.857,9.869,9.8787],"stroke":"#98a9b8","width":1.0,"dash":[6,5]}],"guides":[],"dates":["2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"]},{"key":"returns","eyebrow":"Observed return path","title":"Completed returns and cumulative progression","description":"Period returns are shown beside the total move recorded across the available tape.","reason":"Selected because direct returns remain fully observable while longer indicators develop.","series":[{"label":"Period return","values":[null,0.2,0.6986,-0.0991,5.7582,-4.6096,0.789,0.8806,-0.7369,-0.0877,0.0,-0.3914,-0.0982,-0.0419,0.789,0.1957,-0.5859],"stroke":"#176fa3","width":1.7},{"label":"Cumulative 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range","values":[0.0,1.1976,0.3964,0.9921,4.6943,0.1972,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.2947,1.4749,1.1804,1.0763,0.6836,4.8134],"stroke":"#b87806","width":1.8},{"label":"Open-to-close direction","values":[0.0,0.4008,0.0992,0.8,4.514,-0.1968,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0983,0.197,-0.1401,0.8885,0.1957,-0.4888],"stroke":"#176fa3","width":1.8}],"guides":[{"label":"Unchanged close","values":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"stroke":"#8fa0af","width":1.0,"dash":[6,5]}],"dates":["2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"]},{"key":"participation","eyebrow":"Participation","title":"Activity pressure and cumulative balance","description":"Observed activity is compared with its normal backdrop while cumulative balance tracks directional participation.","reason":"Selected because participation is confirming or diverging from the latest price path.","series":[{"label":"Activity versus norm","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,87.4172,39.8734,0.0,0.0,137.8151,398.835,350.5095,156.4537,86.8064,720.1137],"stroke":"#1678a7","width":1.8},{"label":"Cumulative balance","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,134.0094,129.3868,129.3868,129.3868,115.8491,65.0,65.0,74.9291,80.3901,65.0],"stroke":"#07865c","width":1.7}],"guides":[{"label":"Typical activity","values":[100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0],"stroke":"#8fa0af","width":1.0,"dash":[6,5]}],"dates":["2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"]},{"key":"impulse","eyebrow":"Price impulse","title":"Acceleration, deceleration and rollover","description":"The impulse path separates 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