{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"ONL Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"e2531ccb-ada8-4ddb-ae1d-ccd8c23d8061","symbol":"ONL","name":"Orion Office Reit Inc","exchange":"NYSE","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Real Estate","industry":"Reit - Office"},"summary":"The technical trend and the underlying tape are moving in opposite directions. Price is holding its upward structure without confirmation from Market Dynamics.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Strength versus the research benchmark, Range position and boundary pressure, Range pressure and compression, Activity pressure and cumulative balance."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":248,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"The technical trend and the underlying tape are moving in opposite directions. Price is holding its upward structure without confirmation from Market Dynamics.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Evidence conflict","headline":"Price structure is upward, but Market Dynamics is negative","summary":"The technical trend and the underlying tape are moving in opposite directions. Price is holding its upward structure without confirmation from Market Dynamics.","take":"The gap can close through improving Market Dynamics or weakening price. Until one occurs, the upward structure carries elevated reversal risk and should not be read as fully 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":16,"completedEpisodes":14,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":6.7,"averageExpectedMove":9.2,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":5.5,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":16,"expectedCount":6,"expectedPercent":37.5,"averageReturn":-4.2,"medianReturn":-4.3,"confidenceLow":18.5,"confidenceHigh":61.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":14,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":-6.8,"medianReturn":-0.3,"confidenceLow":26.8,"confidenceHigh":73.2,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":13,"expectedCount":4,"expectedPercent":30.8,"averageReturn":-18.5,"medianReturn":-27.0,"confidenceLow":12.7,"confidenceHigh":57.6,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-1.7,"sample":16},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-2.6,"sample":16},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-5.1,"sample":16},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-4.2,"sample":16},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-3.5,"sample":16},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-5.0,"sample":15},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-4.8,"sample":15},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-5.0,"sample":15},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-5.4,"sample":15},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-3.9,"sample":15},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-6.9,"sample":14},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-6.8,"sample":14},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-11.8,"sample":14},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-12.8,"sample":14},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-12.4,"sample":14},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-12.3,"sample":14},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-12.8,"sample":14},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-12.8,"sample":14},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-13.2,"sample":14},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-12.7,"sample":14},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-13.1,"sample":14},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-13.4,"sample":14},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-14.9,"sample":14},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-20.1,"sample":13},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-18.4,"sample":13},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-18.5,"sample":13}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Evidence conflict","tone":"negative","headline":"Market Dynamics is negative while price remains rotational","use":"Treat the pressure as context until price establishes a clear response.","confirm":"The gap can close through improving Market Dynamics or weakening price. Until one occurs, the upward structure carries elevated reversal risk and should not be read as fully aligned.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price is between the accumulation and distribution zones. The Market Dynamics bars describe whether the current move is gaining or losing underlying support.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":50.0,"averageReturn":2.1,"sample":14},"nowContext":{"label":"Slightly stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price structure is upward","detail":"Price is responding in the same broad direction as Market Dynamics."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 50.0% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 2.1% across 14 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 2.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 15.1% across 14 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.9 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[3.7088,3.727,3.7088,3.7724,3.6997,3.6906,3.4847,3.5313,3.9413,3.5686,3.4661,3.7922,3.5686,3.7922,3.9413,3.7736,3.7177,3.5872,3.494,3.6743,3.6456,3.7605,3.6935,3.8753,3.8561,3.8561,3.8561,3.9423,2.3921,2.2965,2.2103,2.0668,1.7867,1.5549,1.5646,1.6902,1.893,1.9413,1.8833,1.7095,1.8447,2.0282,1.8447,1.9509,2.0958,2.3299,2.2422,2.4859,2.6614,2.5249,2.5152,2.4469,2.7199,2.8954,2.9344,2.9051,2.6614,2.6809,2.6124,2.3963,2.4945,2.5534,2.4258,2.5534,2.357,2.1802,2.2097,2.0231,2.0133,2.0231,2.2097,2.2392,2.0906,2.1302,1.9915,2.2094,2.5463,2.6256,2.5364,2.4671,2.4274,2.2986,1.8726,1.9122,2.18,2.35,2.51,2.49,2.9397,2.8602,2.8801,2.9794,2.9595,2.8006,2.7708,2.8503,2.89,2.83,2.75,2.63,2.6,2.64,2.82,2.87],"consensus":[43.8146,21.4974,26.5208,38.4967,0.0,0.0,-31.6559,0.0,58.9973,-37.1443,-24.6275,47.6785,-36.8877,40.2634,41.2829,-13.8642,0.0,-29.6065,-38.437,21.879,-13.1927,26.0411,0.0,40.2909,16.4284,10.6794,0.0,26.4148,-72.5811,-51.1763,-61.4844,-66.6266,-73.8014,-71.5371,-37.0255,-21.5421,0.0,0.0,-29.841,-39.8538,0.0,19.8392,-37.137,10.0816,23.3213,50.6562,0.0,55.5253,56.7729,9.7856,20.1003,0.0,50.5632,57.8317,51.7899,32.2354,-16.7685,0.0,-17.5842,-48.07,0.0,0.0,-37.7628,26.2091,-40.5825,-55.8225,-20.7443,-63.5056,-30.5525,-27.8276,17.3407,11.1344,-34.6923,0.0,-49.6887,24.4243,65.3743,46.0159,13.5284,0.0,0.0,-34.486,-71.1963,-40.0838,20.7792,38.0874,49.2785,25.1211,77.3937,30.1161,32.1313,55.6312,25.2412,-13.2791,0.0,25.6612,22.4994,0.0,-16.4168,-38.2047,-28.9659,-9.8317,32.0668,-31.5909],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[56.9891,60.5194,56.6225,25.0833,-22.9364,0.0,-17.2888,-51.2552,0.0,0.0,-41.0625,25.1245,-41.5274,-57.5958,-15.6761,-64.3891,-23.297,-26.5224,24.077,7.3896,-46.5123,0.0,-55.4345,22.9175,60.4179,44.0788,0.0052,0.0,0.0,-33.7502,-68.2829,-45.0969,31.5403,41.8751,46.6883,19.5541,76.7753,27.663,23.2302,56.1268,28.9102,-17.6618,0.0,38.3904,24.5854,0.0,-22.5691,-39.6912,-26.6808,-2.5799,28.7655,-31.2885],"force":[51.3152,49.5436,29.6678,5.3359,-49.2254,0.0,-28.8766,-59.048,0.0,0.0,-46.3722,47.4138,-53.7155,-61.5416,-2.2138,-70.9085,-8.6398,-5.0801,49.0813,22.1479,-41.2645,0.0,-49.1779,63.0492,92.8858,35.6821,15.3863,0.0,0.0,-52.278,-98.0141,-13.1737,65.2951,59.7594,55.8478,6.0089,97.5271,8.3593,9.3597,46.3667,3.3835,-52.6796,0.0,21.5397,24.7867,0.0,-29.5801,-46.4509,-22.1425,-3.5765,56.3266,-30.2303],"direction":[42.6823,60.6801,62.0684,59.6232,-13.4639,0.0,-9.8559,-36.5883,0.0,0.0,-27.8423,12.3024,-30.122,-49.7109,-42.9351,-57.208,-54.4966,-45.5675,13.0299,7.5473,-16.4894,0.0,-43.4871,1.4429,51.3877,55.6109,49.6368,0.0,0.0,-22.6184,-55.3703,-53.5761,23.3164,18.2787,47.5464,45.1349,63.7194,60.4021,58.5694,61.6822,41.4944,-19.8731,0.0,14.0574,18.4816,0.0,-0.0168,-30.6156,-36.4512,-27.6967,18.5113,-32.9082],"intensity":[80.7692,69.2308,34.6154,3.8462,78.8462,3.8462,32.6923,63.4615,19.2308,11.5385,32.6923,61.5385,65.3846,48.0769,42.3077,65.3846,40.3846,9.6154,67.3077,28.8462,46.1538,17.3077,44.2308,94.2308,96.1538,90.3846,15.3846,15.3846,7.6923,32.6923,100.0,73.0769,86.5385,86.5385,73.0769,21.1538,100.0,65.3846,40.3846,21.1538,11.5385,48.0769,28.8462,13.4615,36.5385,69.2308,28.8462,34.6154,7.6923,5.7692,96.1538,57.6923],"confirmation":[84.1052,86.2126,83.8249,54.9379,31.8001,24.4406,73.9756,83.6684,4.4921,26.497,80.2962,77.0497,81.3723,86.0105,51.8213,88.5339,77.2196,53.5648,31.8601,26.6224,79.1217,25.6258,83.7973,54.657,89.8337,82.4397,6.9364,29.6145,25.867,79.589,91.6445,79.9303,35.4829,80.7907,84.0088,52.8745,93.389,32.9519,77.7237,85.5121,53.2041,32.2895,3.467,75.892,75.2377,4.6751,50.8977,80.4542,77.0959,26.2777,79.051,44.64],"persistence":[75.0,75.0,87.5,87.5,62.5,50.0,25.0,12.5,0.0,12.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,50.0,50.0,50.0,62.5,75.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,37.5,25.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,12.5,25.0,50.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5],"assessmentRisk":[6.6428,20.3517,23.7564,33.7812,9.3043,44.4164,39.9109,25.796,40.8203,38.8208,24.697,26.7789,15.5559,21.6907,36.8064,18.2281,34.3265,29.9831,8.6703,40.8713,44.8961,34.2113,22.459,22.8824,16.9419,26.8331,43.1763,44.3243,32.3479,31.6928,14.3181,29.7529,53.041,6.205,25.195,37.182,11.2072,34.253,31.3168,21.3832,7.7101,7.3339,23.143,47.1516,32.4652,10.6379,1.1216,26.239,33.6636,44.5033,16.6927,33.7146],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-31.6,"control":-31.3,"force":-30.2,"direction":-32.9,"confirmation":44.6,"persistence":12.5,"assessmentRisk":33.7,"intensity":57.7,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the Market Dynamics view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics disagree. The completed evidence gives the downward Market Dynamics view stronger support.","take":"Current assessment: the visible price structure remains vulnerable until Market Dynamics changes.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":true},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-31.6","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-31.3","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-30.2","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-32.9","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"45/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"58.2","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"7.7%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"15.6","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"85%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its 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