{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"USAR Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"e31d0d7b-9f72-4b99-bb0a-ffd06b5134b4","symbol":"USAR","name":"USA Rare Earth, Inc.","exchange":"NASDAQ","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Basic Materials","industry":"Other Industrial Metals & Mining"},"summary":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. 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record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":2.2,"sample":11},{"week":2,"averageReturn":6.7,"sample":11},{"week":3,"averageReturn":13.9,"sample":11},{"week":4,"averageReturn":20.5,"sample":11},{"week":5,"averageReturn":28.4,"sample":11},{"week":6,"averageReturn":21.1,"sample":11},{"week":7,"averageReturn":12.9,"sample":11},{"week":8,"averageReturn":12.0,"sample":11},{"week":9,"averageReturn":17.8,"sample":11},{"week":10,"averageReturn":23.6,"sample":11},{"week":11,"averageReturn":23.2,"sample":10},{"week":12,"averageReturn":24.0,"sample":10},{"week":13,"averageReturn":33.9,"sample":10},{"week":14,"averageReturn":41.5,"sample":10},{"week":15,"averageReturn":28.6,"sample":10},{"week":16,"averageReturn":28.9,"sample":10},{"week":17,"averageReturn":28.3,"sample":10},{"week":18,"averageReturn":22.2,"sample":10},{"week":19,"averageReturn":18.2,"sample":10},{"week":20,"averageReturn":23.6,"sample":10},{"week":21,"averageReturn":21.1,"sample":10},{"week":22,"averageReturn":30.3,"sample":9},{"week":23,"averageReturn":27.4,"sample":9},{"week":24,"averageReturn":22.3,"sample":9},{"week":25,"averageReturn":28.8,"sample":9},{"week":26,"averageReturn":38.3,"sample":8}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying support lags price","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"This is a downside risk watch, not a completed reversal. Stronger Market Dynamics or weaker price is needed to close the gap.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":57.1,"averageReturn":-5.3,"sample":7},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 57.1% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of -5.3% across 7 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 5 cases. Distinct visits lasted 7.2 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 20.7% across 7 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 5.9 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-06-20","price":12.14},{"date":"2025-07-11","price":10.71}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-06-05","price":22.47}],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[10.68,10.67,10.705,10.71,10.725,10.765,10.78,10.76,10.785,10.78,10.78,10.785,10.72,10.7,10.82,11.49,12.6,10.991,11.406,12.35,12.54,13.0473,11.85,13.2,12.22,11.3,11.0,11.13,12.99,18.55,11.1,5.95,7.55,8.31,14.09,12.14,10.31,9.62,9.77,9.3,8.95,11.55,13.24,12.14,11.185,9.93,10.71,14.62,12.02,13.94,16.26,17.19,15.89,14.92,13.86,14.06,16.25,17.325,25.96,32.61,27.73,23.57,19.45,17.36,14.49,12.24,13.45,17.22,17.04,13.84,13.51,14.15,17.28,17.69,24.77,22.42,21.84,19.395,17.23,18.9,17.45,19.46,16.24,15.42,15.92,16.15,19.95,21.86,26.33,26.96,24.39,25.3,28.01,22.47,21.99,24.64,20.47,19.15,18.48,15.65,14.15,14.95,19.33,20.0],"consensus":[0.0,0.0,16.9261,13.8289,34.189,58.9931,48.482,0.0,50.4792,0.0,20.9244,18.8242,-48.6053,-30.7852,32.223,53.8144,48.2824,-27.4812,39.9654,47.6941,16.1079,52.588,-17.1535,54.5343,-22.6315,-47.7962,-44.3485,-27.0576,57.6992,72.9249,-48.5232,-74.2299,-10.3467,-17.0188,50.4223,0.0,-23.0241,-21.2885,0.0,-28.044,-17.3811,42.4178,43.7884,0.0,-11.2717,-31.5825,0.0,55.7102,-26.1876,52.9621,60.7505,38.7472,12.7952,0.0,-15.4264,0.0,46.766,40.4172,74.0792,74.1478,0.0,-12.0573,-38.0609,-30.7395,-49.2483,-49.8957,-11.2391,24.2602,0.0,-35.7639,-22.2266,0.0,27.1438,15.7283,69.8302,0.0,0.0,-13.3683,-33.8699,0.0,-28.2826,17.0236,-37.6487,-31.8506,0.0,-11.5654,42.3122,31.0665,68.0257,38.0573,0.0,31.2182,47.2695,-37.9114,-10.5591,28.3198,-44.0155,-32.1258,-26.0282,-52.4305,-52.4886,-16.22,30.8156,-20.3315],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[10.9429,0.0,-11.7947,0.0,47.2837,33.2661,67.9425,69.2046,0.0,-21.4741,-31.2135,-21.3511,-48.4754,-50.0025,-2.4844,28.6286,0.0,-44.4506,-28.5052,0.0,30.987,11.6239,67.765,0.0,0.0,-19.5853,-32.3814,0.0,-27.3235,19.2408,-40.0478,-33.6861,0.0,-5.4702,41.4718,17.4799,67.2611,32.992,0.0,26.7334,54.2233,-34.4092,-8.1352,36.9769,-40.3538,-34.083,-24.049,-54.1876,-57.8741,-5.5954,35.8555,-18.9216],"force":[27.0269,0.0,-29.8271,0.0,74.7642,50.0431,94.6821,85.7,0.0,-69.9202,-76.7739,-41.5514,-55.2934,-46.4232,-13.907,60.1518,0.0,-47.5005,-9.7443,0.0,51.5667,14.7889,94.8658,0.0,0.0,-37.8719,-45.2741,0.0,-37.6809,29.635,-59.0339,-28.6177,0.0,-2.6322,63.9715,39.6286,86.955,20.6203,0.0,28.1689,45.0392,-79.5944,-13.853,39.0038,-67.1607,-29.0865,-15.9988,-49.6752,-40.6746,-11.2695,64.9602,-25.7908],"direction":[43.3565,0.0,-9.2907,0.0,26.1757,41.7141,66.3761,71.5455,0.0,-40.0353,-18.2344,-33.7462,-45.8137,-52.254,-44.8847,6.369,0.0,-17.453,-23.9669,0.0,5.3067,21.09,54.3078,0.0,0.0,-11.2394,-27.4253,0.0,-22.6657,5.4815,-19.6317,-32.0619,0.0,-24.9122,27.8019,40.4781,55.3787,56.3013,0.0,38.5218,40.9154,-12.1404,-10.9765,10.7946,-31.6679,-32.0599,-35.454,-52.3905,-54.7723,-47.9978,0.6669,-18.0434],"intensity":[82.6923,46.1538,71.1538,25.0,69.2308,73.0769,100.0,100.0,90.3846,100.0,98.0769,78.8462,71.1538,67.3077,50.0,78.8462,75.0,73.0769,57.6923,25.0,75.0,28.8462,86.5385,84.6154,78.8462,48.0769,73.0769,23.0769,19.2308,34.6154,67.3077,59.6154,17.3077,26.9231,73.0769,86.5385,80.7692,67.3077,40.3846,71.1538,86.5385,80.7692,92.3077,42.3077,69.2308,73.0769,15.3846,44.2308,23.0769,5.7692,75.0,57.6923],"confirmation":[31.3415,30.3854,73.4307,24.672,83.8105,81.3358,92.4267,92.1547,38.125,36.6858,81.4637,78.3092,83.9555,83.8592,6.5361,55.4826,24.2554,79.6698,74.6364,5.2586,54.7051,73.067,91.1401,34.8623,5.492,29.9943,79.2086,27.2181,77.3515,51.1314,80.6628,78.0657,3.7143,26.1882,82.2128,78.4092,90.3568,79.7241,8.8565,77.9652,82.9523,81.4554,71.5162,77.256,82.8461,78.1578,76.0535,84.667,84.3542,6.9187,56.1581,74.6939],"persistence":[37.5,50.0,37.5,25.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,37.5,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,50.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,50.0,62.5,62.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,50.0],"assessmentRisk":[42.1093,27.3044,35.7193,45.6591,13.5425,23.5417,12.9461,12.9255,50.9391,52.9838,27.7427,34.5947,25.2617,24.7363,39.8023,13.8493,29.3434,36.3584,11.8433,34.3976,9.1199,37.7916,15.0225,51.7917,42.1652,33.8857,32.618,45.5858,32.285,7.3151,1.3733,26.8435,23.4384,37.0353,22.321,34.2845,15.9759,30.9638,46.6242,30.367,8.2753,27.4216,30.2341,26.6647,27.4746,24.7179,28.7406,23.6172,22.7557,39.0414,0.3982,36.0019],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-20.3,"control":-18.9,"force":-25.8,"direction":-18.0,"confirmation":74.7,"persistence":50.0,"assessmentRisk":36.0,"intensity":57.7,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-20.3","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-18.9","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-25.8","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-18.0","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"75/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"50.9","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"21.2%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"24.8","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"36%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price is rotating through its trend references.","series":[{"label":"Close","values":[10.68,10.67,10.705,10.71,10.725,10.765,10.78,10.76,10.785,10.78,10.78,10.785,10.72,10.7,10.82,11.49,12.6,10.991,11.406,12.35,12.54,13.0473,11.85,13.2,12.22,11.3,11.0,11.13,12.99,18.55,11.1,5.95,7.55,8.31,14.09,12.14,10.31,9.62,9.77,9.3,8.95,11.55,13.24,12.14,11.185,9.93,10.71,14.62,12.02,13.94,16.26,17.19,15.89,14.92,13.86,14.06,16.25,17.325,25.96,32.61,27.73,23.57,19.45,17.36,14.49,12.24,13.45,17.22,17.04,13.84,13.51,14.15,17.28,17.69,24.77,22.42,21.84,19.395,17.23,18.9,17.45,19.46,16.24,15.42,15.92,16.15,19.95,21.86,26.33,26.96,24.39,25.3,28.01,22.47,21.99,24.64,20.47,19.15,18.48,15.65,14.15,14.95,19.33,20.0],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.1},{"label":"Fast 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