{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"FSS Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"e3e55530-fcdc-4fa9-aed0-e82c1ba05647","symbol":"FSS","name":"Federal Signal Corporation","exchange":"NYSE","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":3,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":13.1,"averageExpectedMove":13.1,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":4.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":2,"expectedCount":2,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-9.2,"medianReturn":-9.2,"confidenceLow":34.2,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-8.5,"medianReturn":-8.5,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-7.2,"medianReturn":-7.2,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":3},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-6.3,"sample":3},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-9.7,"sample":2},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-9.2,"sample":2},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-4.7,"sample":2},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-4.6,"sample":2},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-5.5,"sample":2},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-10.1,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-9.3,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-10.9,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-6.8,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-8.5,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-10.5,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-13.6,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-6.7,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-3.7,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-5.1,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-7.0,"sample":1},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-13.1,"sample":1},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-15.6,"sample":1},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-15.5,"sample":1},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-14.8,"sample":1},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-12.6,"sample":1},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-7.9,"sample":1},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-8.6,"sample":1},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-7.2,"sample":1}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Structural gap","tone":"caution","headline":"Market Dynamics is weakening while price remains elevated","use":"This is a warning, not a completed reversal. Price can remain elevated while the gap is open.","confirm":"Continued separation or a weaker price response would confirm that the structural warning remains relevant.","invalidate":"The warning resolves when Market Dynamics catches up with price or price corrects enough to close the gap.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"distribution","zoneContext":"Price is in distribution and ahead of Market Dynamics. The advance is not fully confirmed while that gap remains open.","historical":{"label":"Prior structural-gap cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":100.0,"averageReturn":-8.5,"sample":1},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price remains elevated relative to support","detail":"Price is in distribution and ahead of Market Dynamics. The advance is not fully confirmed while that gap remains open."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Short-term and structural view","title":"Short-term improvement has not closed the structural gap","tone":"caution","approach":"Treat the latest strengthening as an improvement in the immediate reading, not as full confirmation of price. The structural warning remains until Market Dynamics catches up with price or price corrects toward the underlying evidence.","finding":"When the same completed price/Market Dynamics gap appeared previously in the displayed record, 100.0% of cases were lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of -8.5% across 1 cases.","watch":"The warning resolves when Market Dynamics catches up with price or price corrects enough to close the gap."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 3 cases. Distinct visits lasted 2.2 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2025-08-29","price":122.493726},{"date":"2025-09-26","price":121.746753},{"date":"2025-10-31","price":117.55374}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2025-10-24","price":124.794405},{"date":"2026-06-26","price":125.37},{"date":"2026-07-31","price":124.80125}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[93.0446,93.5695,82.4687,86.1326,90.6779,92.094,89.8164,91.3909,87.9052,84.5284,81.0427,89.4698,88.5588,95.0636,96.5906,96.9972,95.6586,91.0278,91.8806,95.0636,92.307,96.3824,98.4548,97.4831,96.8286,96.2833,92.9218,80.5963,79.9121,76.6696,74.8617,74.6829,70.898,75.7557,74.6034,74.7623,86.0075,88.9678,94.8685,91.5755,93.5851,98.7484,99.1264,100.5093,103.9116,110.219,109.5524,107.6821,108.2193,121.9382,124.7437,123.9379,127.8022,122.4937,124.4259,125.0932,124.7844,121.7468,117.992,115.4722,119.9939,124.7944,117.5537,110.2633,109.4366,108.3895,113.6848,110.5336,110.5236,112.2488,113.1264,111.1319,116.2477,114.1934,111.6405,107.7912,116.3874,120.1569,118.4117,116.1081,108.4693,105.2782,105.428,106.3267,109.103,114.8852,114.0863,115.8539,121.4464,118.1708,111.33,112.61,106.7,106.49,109.11,118.52,125.37,131.09,115.0928,116.4912,118.7485,124.8012,128.0574,125.85],"consensus":[0.0,24.0223,-64.4193,0.0,29.8397,12.8731,-9.1539,27.6092,-35.6873,-48.763,-55.2552,35.0213,-9.2327,59.3085,33.2734,25.5126,11.5847,-33.8732,0.0,31.511,-19.7898,45.364,31.9069,13.5003,18.6027,0.0,-37.796,-71.5395,-41.6308,-60.1789,-56.7563,-46.9695,-59.4184,11.0749,-33.0569,-16.9367,58.2805,46.1967,62.2866,11.0908,37.3176,61.0143,32.1268,34.7057,58.0034,73.209,34.4205,25.6949,34.2836,72.1602,53.9646,25.4978,61.655,0.0,39.7159,29.3678,10.8217,0.0,-26.1514,-36.5905,22.4984,40.3261,-32.8683,-50.424,-30.8015,-29.8639,11.6084,-33.7743,-12.9514,12.9886,0.0,-15.4411,38.6228,-9.9028,-21.6094,-39.3111,40.3221,37.8949,14.0969,0.0,-46.4575,-42.0059,-28.4288,-27.4046,8.6849,40.0813,10.3637,26.5299,44.7167,0.0,-33.7695,0.0,-47.8072,-19.242,0.0,49.5334,58.9789,65.1596,-33.2172,0.0,9.9319,29.3445,34.165,13.6321],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[65.5583,0.0,51.1298,32.6985,14.5803,0.0,-20.9991,-35.2615,36.4904,46.7223,-28.8177,-50.4124,-24.3485,-20.6208,25.0909,-32.3313,-15.4339,14.3342,0.0,-16.7352,41.6909,-13.3281,-23.3519,-37.666,45.9607,38.5184,9.3106,0.0,-40.6549,-36.7853,-24.2837,-24.3323,11.5025,38.2028,4.0228,22.6904,35.0618,0.0,-37.804,0.0,-45.4026,-10.8711,0.0,51.4546,51.6938,68.0609,-41.3756,0.0,19.4774,36.2565,28.0836,6.8573],"force":[45.6981,0.0,22.8165,8.609,14.6407,0.0,-49.4626,-45.569,40.0953,44.1529,-71.3931,-62.1891,-16.5309,-13.7868,37.6561,-51.7215,-0.7847,33.8775,0.0,-15.2488,57.0483,-24.4158,-25.438,-49.0086,70.3123,38.1602,2.39,0.0,-69.6425,-43.5037,-11.7069,-16.5953,28.2508,58.4869,0.3478,26.0274,59.9259,0.0,-53.958,0.0,-61.4198,-5.444,0.0,69.7502,80.2541,69.589,-79.2023,0.0,13.4523,42.7112,28.2445,6.4631],"direction":[68.5918,0.0,38.7424,40.389,24.7137,0.0,-15.3888,-31.6963,6.0616,30.2828,-9.9797,-42.0338,-48.3696,-51.911,22.4056,-22.6039,-18.8046,3.47,0.0,-14.0994,21.9554,-4.3783,-16.8831,-34.2645,12.4564,36.9927,31.3434,0.0,-36.5283,-46.9024,-45.1102,-38.6367,8.511,29.0812,24.7647,31.2768,44.887,0.0,-14.7382,0.0,-40.832,-38.6645,0.0,32.8973,52.108,58.68,-8.9533,0.0,3.4918,11.8973,45.344,35.7283],"intensity":[50.0,63.4615,23.0769,21.1538,25.0,46.1538,69.2308,23.0769,57.6923,71.1538,94.2308,94.2308,69.2308,48.0769,65.3846,32.6923,15.3846,7.6923,51.9231,57.6923,63.4615,23.0769,28.8462,65.3846,84.6154,82.6923,23.0769,92.3077,92.3077,82.6923,55.7692,69.2308,23.0769,69.2308,26.9231,13.4615,86.5385,76.9231,80.7692,75.0,71.1538,80.7692,48.0769,86.5385,84.6154,73.0769,96.1538,94.2308,7.6923,71.1538,98.0769,28.8462],"confirmation":[87.1838,33.2711,80.0201,76.7143,28.4197,6.6689,77.1574,80.0029,54.149,80.9235,79.7537,84.4944,77.5199,77.2073,31.7496,79.3767,49.0692,50.8461,24.2393,72.9156,80.8741,49.8264,75.0051,80.9002,81.7311,80.1249,49.9247,28.9425,83.6614,81.5671,76.6508,76.4869,27.8149,81.4156,25.7744,76.5328,82.92,29.5805,79.36,26.5923,83.7498,51.1978,3.4386,84.4376,87.6326,88.9419,36.4833,24.2471,49.2183,77.6923,78.845,35.8985],"persistence":[100.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,75.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,50.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,25.0,37.5,37.5,50.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,62.5,62.5],"assessmentRisk":[19.168,6.8455,23.4715,1.7993,35.0587,4.8681,31.4003,30.2047,49.8843,8.0319,10.5731,17.7965,34.0749,35.0518,43.2364,20.2921,19.9159,30.7559,5.0409,15.3029,24.7707,27.7024,8.3245,18.4289,18.2328,27.2297,40.3707,51.1342,24.7945,28.9221,35.6099,35.4631,3.2163,28.9081,43.2298,35.7285,27.3683,37.1363,13.1223,35.6676,26.0024,40.1883,26.0962,18.8018,20.4763,17.4166,52.6999,16.4901,43.1789,51.6945,31.0221,38.3818],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":13.6,"control":6.9,"force":6.5,"direction":35.7,"confirmation":35.9,"persistence":62.5,"assessmentRisk":38.4,"intensity":28.8,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint upward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the upward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same upward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has broad support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Control support is limited","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Commitment is limited","forcePath":"Broadly stable","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Present","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+13.6","detail":"Joint upward confirmation","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+6.9","detail":"Control support is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+6.5","detail":"Commitment is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+35.7","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM 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