{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"IBM Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"e5de06c2-4e38-4068-aedc-78331864c1bf","symbol":"IBM","name":"International Business Machines Corporation","exchange":"GER","country":"DE","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Technology","industry":"Information Technology Services"},"summary":"Price structure and the underlying tape currently reinforce the same downside read.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":6,"completedEpisodes":4,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":19.7,"averageExpectedMove":16.9,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":10.2,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":6,"expectedCount":6,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-9.7,"medianReturn":-4.5,"confidenceLow":61.0,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Historically consistent"},{"weeks":12,"sample":4,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":75.0,"averageReturn":-14.6,"medianReturn":-17.6,"confidenceLow":30.1,"confidenceHigh":95.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":4,"expectedCount":4,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-14.1,"medianReturn":-14.5,"confidenceLow":51.0,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Historically consistent"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":6},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-8.9,"sample":6},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-9.5,"sample":6},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-9.7,"sample":6},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-8.8,"sample":6},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-8.2,"sample":6},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-13.4,"sample":5},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-13.4,"sample":5},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-12.4,"sample":5},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-13.7,"sample":5},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-14.4,"sample":5},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-14.6,"sample":4},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-18.5,"sample":4},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-14.5,"sample":4},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-18.1,"sample":4},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-17.8,"sample":4},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-15.6,"sample":4},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-17.4,"sample":4},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-14.7,"sample":4},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-13.0,"sample":4},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-13.4,"sample":4},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-13.6,"sample":4},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-14.7,"sample":4},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-21.5,"sample":4},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-15.2,"sample":4},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-14.1,"sample":4}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Evidence aligned downward","tone":"negative","headline":"Price and Market Dynamics remain aligned downward","use":"The downside remains supported until Market Dynamics repairs or price structure changes.","confirm":"The downside state remains confirmed until Market Dynamics repairs or price structure changes.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price is between the accumulation and distribution zones. The Market Dynamics bars describe whether the current move is gaining or losing underlying support.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":29.4,"averageReturn":3.1,"sample":17},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price structure is downward","detail":"Price is responding in the same broad direction as Market Dynamics."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Capital protection","title":"Treat agreement on the downside as a defensive condition","tone":"negative","approach":"Reduce the burden of proof for risk control and raise it for new long exposure. A short position still needs a defined entry, exit and maximum loss.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 29.4% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 3.1% across 17 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 66.7% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 3 cases. Distinct visits lasted 3.6 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 8.2% across 19 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.5 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-01-02","price":244.781662},{"date":"2026-01-23","price":244.535492},{"date":"2026-02-13","price":217.809708}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2025-10-24","price":255.784531},{"date":"2025-11-28","price":261.126678},{"date":"2026-01-09","price":257.729675},{"date":"2026-01-30","price":252.560318},{"date":"2026-05-29","price":250.949997},{"date":"2026-07-03","price":250.850006}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[166.7773,170.8011,171.8829,184.3907,183.4987,189.4204,193.7858,200.6186,203.0386,191.0338,183.0811,190.2745,187.3519,203.5435,206.7014,215.1226,211.6776,207.8019,204.0698,206.7493,204.7397,209.5723,205.7923,234.8836,234.6922,238.2765,243.624,230.8575,224.4019,219.5362,217.7055,217.0792,205.3244,196.8937,203.5901,194.244,207.7813,214.9277,231.1881,221.0436,221.2863,228.7126,234.2946,239.1484,242.2548,241.3326,237.3525,238.663,212.9377,207.4043,205.5472,200.1175,203.2971,203.0525,205.107,212.8847,220.7113,238.6148,242.2346,238.517,231.5708,255.7845,258.9641,256.4693,259.0589,253.4465,261.1267,261.1267,255.1204,254.6281,253.4957,244.7817,257.7297,257.9266,244.5355,252.5603,247.9325,217.8097,215.9756,200.9064,218.702,214.4885,211.0186,204.3267,211.5639,198.0809,212.3074,191.7757,193.7783,194.42,187.6,221.85,250.95,248.1,237.1,216.35,238.0,250.85,252.434,183.2241,186.4372,188.6189,201.61,202.45],"consensus":[19.8463,58.0353,25.7709,82.2668,38.8706,72.8718,69.2675,66.815,47.3812,-14.9913,-34.0295,37.6309,-20.8642,64.3641,48.6327,71.7994,24.7017,15.6543,0.0,22.5904,-10.3241,40.5302,0.0,71.1319,30.3993,56.1646,61.9403,-16.7272,-21.8187,-34.3151,-20.5515,-23.8635,-59.5944,-40.9405,-15.0096,-52.8215,21.9878,28.5304,57.4721,0.0,9.9603,43.6081,38.5973,44.9807,36.4063,32.9983,0.0,29.4077,-62.7164,-54.3069,-49.0631,-51.6528,-16.3898,-28.6541,-9.8835,22.0182,43.5455,70.4149,52.0076,9.4547,0.0,69.0712,35.2243,21.7829,31.5747,0.0,45.1337,29.6447,-8.21,0.0,10.3215,-39.5445,41.8957,14.3499,-46.5406,21.699,-18.7654,-70.9964,-47.4587,-64.514,0.0,-33.4015,-41.66,-38.4155,0.0,-61.0249,21.4829,-63.1367,-30.4117,-22.6087,-47.3364,57.8523,72.9646,18.5304,19.4452,-25.105,44.6533,33.3223,20.219,-65.9181,-18.3181,-34.4791,0.0,-10.3755],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-7.6198,-29.7273,-7.6214,18.3255,40.3296,69.1786,54.2609,0.9626,0.0,63.3514,26.739,12.9451,19.6814,0.0,58.2769,33.8808,-11.9742,0.0,23.7304,-39.3795,50.8132,14.8889,-46.2011,19.8119,-11.8901,-64.8616,-47.6507,-55.0288,0.0,-36.1046,-48.1404,-46.9439,0.0,-64.4981,25.434,-59.0038,-28.1943,-24.6535,-42.7043,49.8418,69.4428,2.2825,10.8618,-30.8296,60.0552,37.1362,7.384,-57.6846,-8.2468,-35.6421,0.0,-25.0176],"force":[-17.131,-7.1052,-15.6421,47.4525,66.2378,93.9974,40.0155,33.2466,0.0,94.5413,16.4852,11.518,15.9588,0.0,34.8833,10.9851,-33.3019,0.0,2.741,-55.434,56.9578,5.2968,-72.0944,38.1824,-28.7935,-96.0208,-28.3841,-76.7415,0.0,-21.8823,-31.6322,-29.9881,0.0,-64.0595,67.9158,-87.819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downward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the downward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same downward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has broad support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Commitment is limited","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-10.4","detail":"Joint downward confirmation","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-25.0","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-2.0","detail":"Commitment is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-2.5","detail":"Follow-through 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