{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"HARDWYN Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"e8dd11e3-5426-4d7a-bc32-11b906b78474","symbol":"HARDWYN","name":"Hardwyn India Limited","exchange":"NSI","country":"IN","asset_type":"equity","currency":"INR","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Building Products & Equipment"},"summary":"Price structure and the underlying tape currently reinforce the same downside read.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":18,"completedEpisodes":17,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":9.1,"averageExpectedMove":12.3,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":5.3,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":18,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":38.9,"averageReturn":-5.7,"medianReturn":-3.4,"confidenceLow":20.3,"confidenceHigh":61.4,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":17,"expectedCount":6,"expectedPercent":35.3,"averageReturn":-5.6,"medianReturn":-4.6,"confidenceLow":17.3,"confidenceHigh":58.7,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":16,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":56.2,"averageReturn":4.8,"medianReturn":5.5,"confidenceLow":33.2,"confidenceHigh":76.9,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.9,"sample":18},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-3.8,"sample":18},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-1.5,"sample":18},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-5.7,"sample":18},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-7.6,"sample":18},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-6.2,"sample":18},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-8.1,"sample":18},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-9.1,"sample":18},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-5.5,"sample":17},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-4.7,"sample":17},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-5.0,"sample":17},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-5.6,"sample":17},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-3.2,"sample":16},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":16},{"week":15,"averageReturn":0.1,"sample":16},{"week":16,"averageReturn":2.8,"sample":16},{"week":17,"averageReturn":2.5,"sample":16},{"week":18,"averageReturn":2.9,"sample":16},{"week":19,"averageReturn":2.1,"sample":16},{"week":20,"averageReturn":2.5,"sample":16},{"week":21,"averageReturn":4.0,"sample":16},{"week":22,"averageReturn":2.5,"sample":16},{"week":23,"averageReturn":2.6,"sample":16},{"week":24,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":16},{"week":25,"averageReturn":6.9,"sample":16},{"week":26,"averageReturn":4.8,"sample":16}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Evidence aligned downward","tone":"negative","headline":"Price and Market Dynamics remain aligned downward","use":"The downside remains supported until Market Dynamics repairs or price structure changes.","confirm":"The downside state remains confirmed until Market Dynamics repairs or price structure changes.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price is between the accumulation and distribution zones. The Market Dynamics bars describe whether the current move is gaining or losing underlying support.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":33.3,"averageReturn":26.1,"sample":12},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price structure is downward","detail":"Price is responding in the same broad direction as Market Dynamics."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Capital protection","title":"Treat agreement on the downside as a defensive condition","tone":"negative","approach":"Reduce the burden of proof for risk control and raise it for new long exposure. A short position still needs a defined entry, exit and maximum loss.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 33.3% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 26.1% across 12 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 25.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 4 cases. Distinct visits lasted 7.5 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 12.3% across 17 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 5.3 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-06-06","price":10.357142},{"date":"2025-07-11","price":10.235714},{"date":"2025-07-25","price":10.207142},{"date":"2025-10-31","price":10.514285}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[14.6633,15.2347,15.9694,20.7704,23.6224,21.0969,19.7755,19.949,19.9898,17.6378,20.6531,18.7143,18.3622,17.2704,16.3316,16.3163,16.0408,15.0816,13.9071,13.5429,11.9786,12.8429,11.7857,11.5714,11.2786,10.6643,10.2071,9.3,9.2143,8.5286,8.55,8.0429,8.5714,8.65,9.3857,8.7143,9.4143,9.9643,10.0,9.2143,9.9,10.3571,10.1786,10.1429,9.95,9.7286,10.2357,9.9786,10.2071,9.9714,9.2429,9.9857,9.9429,9.6214,9.4857,9.5643,9.6571,9.0357,9.7714,9.6643,8.7643,10.0429,10.5143,11.2286,11.6929,11.7,12.6786,12.7857,12.7857,12.7786,12.7286,12.6857,13.3429,12.6143,11.5286,11.0,12.2,11.8643,12.0929,12.4143,12.1286,12.7786,13.4357,14.1714,14.4429,14.9357,16.0143,18.3429,19.4214,17.5357,17.0071,18.3357,17.9714,17.4357,17.0214,17.9929,17.6643,17.6786,17.6571,11.2857,11.3,11.27,11.26,11.33],"consensus":[0.0,17.361,35.0958,74.3616,79.8978,0.0,0.0,18.2448,0.0,-45.1547,50.3714,-30.2174,-18.4522,-35.6612,-45.1425,-25.7671,-34.1905,-47.6184,-53.6855,-31.983,-53.6313,-10.2142,-51.2162,-30.051,-33.7368,-43.8984,-34.8212,-50.6961,-31.7311,-48.4066,-32.1358,-45.8331,-15.8955,0.0,0.0,-32.9688,20.3692,29.5821,9.6909,-29.1542,33.2142,26.151,0.0,8.3335,-8.831,0.0,27.0135,-8.0932,16.495,-9.5395,-44.9922,27.4426,0.0,-16.1864,-12.3911,0.0,0.0,-40.4198,31.148,0.0,-45.0387,48.4445,43.9055,62.7426,60.5553,42.1173,72.669,49.7732,41.0267,38.4792,26.6716,20.87,47.1255,0.0,-39.0565,-36.0639,20.3217,-17.9897,12.5797,26.3357,0.0,39.5149,50.8301,51.4555,42.4202,54.7364,76.0113,83.0594,73.2009,0.0,11.1053,52.6071,0.0,-12.6967,-8.49,34.8967,0.0,12.0225,9.899,-71.1536,-34.2534,-46.3105,-45.0638,-30.6379],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[0.0,-18.9632,-22.2145,0.0,0.0,-46.3939,26.9083,0.0,-35.4305,41.0104,39.5945,59.1224,56.4213,43.076,70.6241,49.5227,40.844,38.1837,32.7463,25.5006,37.726,0.0,-42.3412,-35.8534,37.0893,-16.3421,10.4933,22.8986,0.0,41.7977,52.7712,50.3793,42.7774,60.2555,77.5268,85.8374,67.2742,0.0,10.102,52.6574,0.0,-14.4307,-8.3757,36.4719,0.0,12.8804,7.4709,-60.002,-23.8191,-45.1309,-43.1217,-35.8574],"force":[0.0,-20.4293,-11.0489,0.0,0.0,-46.64,65.1152,0.0,-75.3298,87.0789,60.5588,81.8985,69.2896,20.3027,87.6104,33.1142,19.3952,17.8058,3.8181,2.2576,65.7012,0.0,-49.9877,-29.3355,33.3063,-25.404,16.7719,30.2333,0.0,47.6209,56.7672,51.5194,23.9634,40.8709,90.1664,94.0225,80.051,0.0,37.8943,69.044,0.0,-58.9186,-38.9943,52.4875,0.0,3.3592,1.3087,-96.7469,-5.0442,-18.2667,-16.568,-1.6445],"direction":[0.0,-9.9824,-2.123,0.0,0.0,-29.1491,11.7312,0.0,-34.3829,29.3447,36.9372,53.1971,59.0411,56.6035,64.3338,61.9588,56.6865,53.5836,36.0529,28.8725,44.5993,0.0,-27.4946,-41.1104,8.1159,-14.5767,11.9697,27.4799,0.0,31.1159,44.3711,52.6397,55.1953,58.3329,64.1686,72.0537,75.0813,0.0,47.2517,40.8088,0.0,-22.3006,-13.1681,20.5317,0.0,17.23,18.8099,-65.6173,-67.0422,-67.6899,-67.6376,-45.3823],"intensity":[17.3077,44.2308,1.9231,1.9231,5.7692,32.6923,53.8462,61.5385,84.6154,80.7692,88.4615,50.0,26.9231,23.0769,75.0,3.8462,3.8462,17.3077,36.5385,30.7692,100.0,90.3846,84.6154,80.7692,88.4615,65.3846,17.3077,28.8462,26.9231,50.0,50.0,84.6154,73.0769,40.3846,82.6923,100.0,96.1538,98.0769,96.1538,94.2308,69.2308,84.6154,96.1538,65.3846,25.0,23.0769,9.6154,100.0,98.0769,61.5385,25.0,30.7692],"confirmation":[24.3609,73.2666,49.1079,24.4201,0.8264,81.0329,79.0672,1.6185,83.4819,84.793,82.623,88.7166,87.7069,80.7981,91.7406,83.4235,80.4721,79.6878,53.0792,51.3739,83.7895,4.5278,80.7812,79.3386,31.0412,74.0078,72.185,76.5986,24.4704,80.857,84.417,84.4841,81.0065,85.009,92.7319,94.8708,91.7234,37.4142,32.8265,85.3344,7.7129,32.8693,29.1241,79.679,3.9188,48.9034,25.6096,91.7191,55.5632,81.9827,81.5816,62.1743],"persistence":[0.0,12.5,37.5,25.0,37.5,37.5,12.5,25.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,37.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,62.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,12.5,37.5,62.5,62.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,100.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,75.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,25.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5],"assessmentRisk":[26.1495,27.8602,35.5074,38.4514,31.7442,24.9079,12.7191,12.3811,25.1594,22.437,20.0591,18.1398,19.7188,28.6424,13.5962,24.6198,27.0983,28.2164,8.7655,19.6692,15.2594,14.6732,29.2416,31.7213,57.734,32.9297,29.7916,36.1712,3.8581,25.7703,23.2659,23.8353,28.7118,22.5159,11.9648,8.4693,13.3995,48.9255,33.6474,26.6715,44.312,1.4239,4.9371,33.3156,14.0542,5.3144,22.0286,14.2955,32.765,26.7598,27.3921,16.5576],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-30.6,"control":-35.9,"force":-1.6,"direction":-45.4,"confirmation":62.2,"persistence":37.5,"assessmentRisk":16.6,"intensity":30.8,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint downward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the downward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same downward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has broad support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Commitment is limited","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-30.6","detail":"Joint downward confirmation","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-35.9","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-1.6","detail":"Commitment is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-45.4","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"62/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned downward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"35.2","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"15.3%","detail":"Elevated","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"31.8","detail":"Directional","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Range position","value":"13%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend references are aligned 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