{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"RGR Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"e8f1db5d-3d27-4f6b-ba0c-fe215f16bb2d","symbol":"RGR","name":"Sturm Ruger & Company Inc","exchange":"NYSE","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Aerospace & Defense"},"summary":"Price structure and the underlying tape currently reinforce the same downside read.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":19,"completedEpisodes":19,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":6.0,"averageExpectedMove":6.7,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.2,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":19,"expectedCount":8,"expectedPercent":42.1,"averageReturn":-1.6,"medianReturn":-0.4,"confidenceLow":23.1,"confidenceHigh":63.7,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":19,"expectedCount":6,"expectedPercent":31.6,"averageReturn":-3.6,"medianReturn":-3.6,"confidenceLow":15.4,"confidenceHigh":54.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":17,"expectedCount":8,"expectedPercent":47.1,"averageReturn":-2.2,"medianReturn":-1.3,"confidenceLow":26.2,"confidenceHigh":69.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":19},{"week":2,"averageReturn":0.0,"sample":19},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-0.6,"sample":19},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-1.6,"sample":19},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-1.5,"sample":19},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-0.9,"sample":19},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-0.5,"sample":19},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":19},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-1.8,"sample":19},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-1.6,"sample":19},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-2.4,"sample":19},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-3.6,"sample":19},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-3.7,"sample":19},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-2.9,"sample":19},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-2.5,"sample":18},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-4.0,"sample":18},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-4.0,"sample":18},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-3.0,"sample":18},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-3.6,"sample":18},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-2.6,"sample":18},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-2.1,"sample":18},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-1.2,"sample":18},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-1.3,"sample":18},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":17},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":17},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-2.2,"sample":17}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Evidence aligned downward","tone":"negative","headline":"Price and Market Dynamics remain aligned downward","use":"The downside remains supported until Market Dynamics repairs or price structure changes.","confirm":"The downside state remains confirmed until Market Dynamics repairs or price structure changes.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price is between the accumulation and distribution zones. The Market Dynamics bars describe whether the current move is gaining or losing underlying support.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":62.5,"averageReturn":-0.1,"sample":24},"nowContext":{"label":"Slightly stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price structure is downward","detail":"Price is responding in the same broad direction as Market Dynamics."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Capital protection","title":"Treat agreement on the downside as a defensive condition","tone":"negative","approach":"Reduce the burden of proof for risk control and raise it for new long exposure. A short position still needs a defined entry, exit and maximum loss.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 62.5% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of -0.1% across 24 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 3 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.7 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 9.1% across 20 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 7.7 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-09-19","price":39.487813},{"date":"2026-02-13","price":37.300754}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[40.9806,41.1075,40.0437,40.5024,40.7073,40.7756,39.8582,40.3364,41.4588,39.6923,39.0482,40.0729,37.5711,37.1601,37.2775,35.2615,35.604,34.1849,33.9109,34.3709,34.0283,34.9091,35.3398,34.8406,34.6645,34.7623,38.7749,38.6183,38.7749,39.7927,38.7984,38.8279,38.0797,38.3455,38.6802,39.7041,34.4667,34.4568,36.5144,35.2778,35.812,35.5449,37.1475,36.8112,35.347,36.1286,35.2679,34.4567,34.892,31.4097,32.8936,34.0313,34.6972,34.4587,35.1544,36.9235,39.4878,43.1056,44.2685,44.9642,44.3878,46.6737,42.1515,33.7331,31.0694,29.2793,29.976,33.3895,32.5735,31.8669,32.1057,33.3099,37.0022,37.5595,37.2609,36.5145,38.1467,37.3008,38.2462,37.2609,37.8382,38.1268,38.8728,40.7177,40.8972,40.8473,42.0939,42.3531,43.0413,38.9326,39.47,40.04,39.09,38.77,39.47,40.19,38.33,37.65,38.4755,37.6402,38.0181,36.9639,36.9043,37.67],"consensus":[-14.3995,0.0,-33.707,0.0,0.0,-11.9337,-30.5943,0.0,34.148,-44.1874,-31.3256,15.7641,-63.2127,-34.4701,-30.6856,-68.7097,-29.8703,-68.6458,-43.0407,-18.8223,-36.948,0.0,11.6828,-23.2306,-10.1781,-16.1009,63.764,23.3407,34.1148,55.2785,0.0,12.6769,0.0,13.7992,25.5091,47.4738,-62.6563,-23.5362,14.3802,-46.1467,8.0152,-8.1097,32.3447,0.0,-41.8861,14.6007,-38.8726,-48.445,-11.0685,-75.395,0.0,9.3075,15.0231,0.0,27.7575,57.2632,74.016,82.9595,66.3734,48.5472,21.4505,73.1036,-29.2455,-67.8295,-71.019,-61.3504,-27.3011,14.5842,-24.4096,-24.1968,-11.0951,9.3284,54.8818,35.4885,21.6442,0.0,42.7363,0.0,32.7113,0.0,17.0077,18.3689,24.5228,44.0863,34.2439,28.8793,46.1487,32.1418,34.1534,-39.0046,0.0,0.0,-29.0693,-15.4311,12.0945,17.7718,-37.5068,-31.3108,0.0,-37.0801,-9.4786,-34.7351,-26.4212,-11.5828],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[21.8154,0.0,24.7387,49.0976,72.8769,85.0113,62.8662,39.3396,4.7113,78.1576,-30.9891,-60.0294,-72.9516,-57.6738,-16.3601,20.5686,-29.9222,-30.4175,-19.0499,17.279,54.637,33.1579,14.5284,0.0,47.7303,0.0,35.8063,0.0,18.835,17.2847,23.9394,35.8393,32.2418,25.1652,47.0837,32.4873,30.7302,-36.6979,0.0,0.0,-26.1726,-19.5016,18.4281,21.341,-33.8332,-35.8038,0.0,-37.7803,-10.7022,-33.6776,-25.2363,-19.1623],"force":[31.9352,0.0,36.8898,83.8962,92.4231,96.4319,62.6826,27.9863,18.7529,68.8699,-84.0229,-98.7286,-80.2278,-59.434,-9.9382,71.1183,-16.4222,-19.602,-11.1425,34.4232,77.7716,27.4177,5.4932,0.0,45.5061,0.0,28.865,0.0,17.1924,11.5401,19.8591,48.8568,17.7595,13.4351,37.9757,13.44,17.9649,-69.8384,0.0,0.0,-37.4488,-11.9048,23.8623,28.338,-65.3726,-25.6133,0.0,-37.4396,-3.5675,-44.2744,-18.6481,-31.3207],"direction":[4.8197,0.0,24.6846,47.5718,62.1699,70.9914,73.018,73.7566,69.2976,70.3517,-11.8739,-54.6731,-62.2325,-66.9212,-66.4046,32.6366,-23.8149,-20.3693,-17.888,17.6828,38.8118,43.917,41.3129,0.0,35.0505,0.0,31.9215,0.0,14.7873,24.4856,28.5209,50.1039,48.3067,44.1554,50.9181,45.1053,49.6287,-19.6165,0.0,0.0,-26.3945,-13.2978,3.5495,6.1454,-21.801,-30.2456,0.0,-36.0231,-17.3991,-29.1298,-33.3275,-11.178],"intensity":[36.5385,34.6154,28.8462,76.9231,86.5385,92.3077,86.5385,78.8462,65.3846,76.9231,96.1538,100.0,100.0,82.6923,23.0769,82.6923,69.2308,42.3077,19.2308,53.8462,86.5385,76.9231,9.6154,25.0,59.6154,30.7692,36.5385,38.4615,34.6154,53.8462,34.6154,90.3846,71.1538,13.4615,61.5385,42.3077,42.3077,96.1538,86.5385,59.6154,36.5385,44.2308,15.3846,50.0,63.4615,71.1538,21.1538,21.1538,1.9231,59.6154,48.0769,53.8462],"confirmation":[51.5808,2.7968,77.2067,87.2603,92.2635,94.9264,89.1805,83.0488,9.8946,91.1871,36.2012,90.766,90.9773,87.6298,32.555,35.9278,75.4837,75.5081,27.7952,30.0677,86.2635,79.1459,51.8757,5.7469,81.6839,4.5046,78.3032,4.3316,73.4202,73.6865,75.7141,82.3787,78.4862,76.8273,82.5043,77.7101,78.4879,81.4563,26.7429,3.1008,77.6017,72.7684,50.2229,51.2879,80.9074,77.7774,28.8498,79.8659,48.7113,79.4221,76.2359,37.2438],"persistence":[12.5,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,100.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,12.5,37.5,50.0,75.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,87.5,87.5,100.0,100.0,75.0,62.5,50.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,62.5,62.5],"assessmentRisk":[14.716,49.2497,32.7463,19.949,12.808,8.5167,16.8112,25.721,39.0382,12.0847,25.7983,16.0164,14.4693,19.3231,36.3025,12.4404,33.6385,45.7242,36.46,6.0127,16.7886,29.5247,35.7659,38.4384,7.0642,7.3526,13.141,22.5984,20.3224,19.9953,11.8033,27.581,32.1785,35.39,26.8544,31.6534,32.4323,24.2709,48.0501,47.9004,35.1447,1.834,6.0472,3.4887,6.341,17.8866,32.8877,29.2002,6.5468,6.2586,34.6109,4.0222],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-11.6,"control":-19.2,"force":-31.3,"direction":-11.2,"confirmation":37.2,"persistence":62.5,"assessmentRisk":4.0,"intensity":53.8,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint downward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the downward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same downward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has broad support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Broadly stable","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Developing","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-11.6","detail":"Joint downward confirmation","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-19.2","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-31.3","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-11.2","detail":"Follow-through is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"37/100","detail":"Limited support","tone":"caution"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned downward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"47.1","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"6.3%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"12.1","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"21%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend references are aligned 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