{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"VOLARA Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"eb14069a-f8e2-4b8a-9e55-49d3dbe015c4","symbol":"VOLARA","name":"Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V.","exchange":"MEX","country":"MX","asset_type":"equity","currency":"MXN","sector":"Industrials","industry":"Airlines"},"summary":"Market Dynamics paused slightly this week and remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. 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adverse"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.7,"sample":17},{"week":2,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":17},{"week":3,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":17},{"week":4,"averageReturn":4.3,"sample":17},{"week":5,"averageReturn":6.0,"sample":16},{"week":6,"averageReturn":4.9,"sample":16},{"week":7,"averageReturn":4.7,"sample":16},{"week":8,"averageReturn":2.4,"sample":16},{"week":9,"averageReturn":0.7,"sample":16},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-1.1,"sample":16},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-2.3,"sample":16},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-1.8,"sample":16},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-3.1,"sample":16},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-4.1,"sample":16},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-4.7,"sample":16},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-7.2,"sample":16},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-11.2,"sample":16},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-12.6,"sample":16},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-15.0,"sample":16},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-18.3,"sample":16},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-16.9,"sample":16},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-16.0,"sample":16},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-16.0,"sample":16},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-15.6,"sample":16},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-17.2,"sample":15},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-20.4,"sample":15}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":49.4,"averageExpectedMove":49.4,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":12.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-11.7,"medianReturn":-11.7,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-49.4,"medianReturn":-49.4,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-44.2,"medianReturn":-44.2,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-2.3,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-9.6,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-8.2,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-11.7,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-26.4,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-31.0,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-38.2,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-37.4,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-38.7,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-44.9,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-46.7,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-49.4,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-48.8,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-56.8,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-56.4,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-52.6,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-52.5,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-48.6,"sample":1},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-48.1,"sample":1},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-52.7,"sample":1},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-55.8,"sample":1},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-51.2,"sample":1},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-50.1,"sample":1},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-49.0,"sample":1},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-52.9,"sample":1},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-44.2,"sample":1}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Support weakening","tone":"caution","headline":"Positive Market Dynamics has weakened over four weeks","use":"Use the weaker four-week path as caution until price and Market Dynamics establish clearer agreement.","confirm":"Treat the weaker support as caution until price and Market Dynamics establish clearer agreement.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics remains above zero, but support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price confirmation now carries more weight.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"sample":0},"nowContext":{"label":"Slightly easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics paused slightly this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has no clear direction","detail":"Price remains rotational while the Market Dynamics condition develops."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 3 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.3 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 18.6% across 16 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 5.7 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-07-18","price":8.51}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2025-02-07","price":16.33}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2025-01-24","price":18.059999}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[11.25,11.21,11.82,12.47,12.47,12.9,11.95,12.15,14.19,14.15,14.92,15.23,16.54,15.97,15.52,17.06,16.86,15.94,15.52,15.32,16.75,17.11,18.06,17.64,16.33,16.58,15.95,13.29,12.46,11.16,11.3,11.07,9.96,9.63,9.13,9.25,7.8,7.88,8.56,8.57,9.28,9.38,8.54,7.99,8.81,9.01,9.21,8.51,10.07,10.8,10.39,10.94,11.05,11.47,11.51,11.3,12.43,12.45,12.74,12.26,12.85,12.57,12.38,12.36,11.99,11.64,13.24,13.74,14.08,17.1,16.53,16.4,16.95,15.4,16.58,16.89,18.15,17.42,17.41,14.91,12.5,12.62,12.45,12.69,13.01,13.4,14.05,13.12,13.05,13.3,11.46,11.89,13.69,12.71,13.8,15.1,16.36,16.02,14.61,13.45,13.26,13.56,14.06,13.5],"consensus":[14.6783,0.0,40.457,41.7173,17.0992,47.0673,-19.3303,13.4359,69.674,35.8132,59.2599,54.3609,72.124,17.0638,0.0,68.1015,23.4024,0.0,0.0,-8.2421,52.7139,40.0901,60.4844,17.9581,-27.4578,14.4604,-35.5982,-71.2169,-65.5653,-70.7417,-39.305,-54.4569,-73.0377,-55.3425,-58.5542,-29.1274,-71.7428,-39.6036,-8.7331,-22.1859,15.7064,0.0,-44.7446,-47.5842,0.0,0.0,15.6922,-32.1805,57.1008,52.9106,0.0,49.2071,30.2097,49.4456,33.7228,16.2988,68.0721,30.8507,41.5836,9.5257,46.9508,0.0,0.0,13.4009,-19.8953,-27.8994,61.5707,45.3066,47.372,77.0261,25.8514,38.8613,60.2345,-24.5721,48.5102,38.8361,62.7643,8.4709,21.7824,-57.3063,-76.2329,-32.808,-48.4082,-34.3351,0.0,0.0,23.7093,-31.7141,-10.9841,0.0,-70.7638,-10.8795,43.8437,-35.5646,39.2527,36.0769,39.3673,29.8302,-8.7098,-45.174,-32.4498,-12.8429,0.0,26.3853],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[23.4166,54.0352,27.5881,11.3348,66.7311,21.5418,34.7475,5.3616,49.2548,0.0,0.0,13.6242,-17.2692,-27.2683,57.713,40.4941,48.8285,73.1933,19.0281,35.6199,58.6216,-21.552,54.453,44.2978,70.3329,5.3422,16.9455,-50.2524,-76.1655,-26.9188,-46.7997,-33.7726,0.0,0.0,19.9856,-40.9651,-9.3424,0.0,-67.9907,-0.2717,43.9731,-43.824,43.9689,31.3578,29.4153,23.5513,-23.7435,-45.9663,-29.3686,-5.554,0.0,30.1532],"force":[11.3323,37.2725,10.9999,11.5639,76.2734,4.2003,23.5962,25.0939,39.492,0.0,0.0,1.764,-40.8188,-38.3286,90.9829,43.4263,32.5598,94.4048,20.0029,8.5757,55.7159,-74.6755,55.5512,24.121,59.5062,31.1976,0.5226,-94.164,-96.5808,-2.4323,-31.6272,-3.6159,0.0,0.0,50.9921,-35.4523,-2.6957,0.0,-93.7739,-20.7258,85.6802,-40.4345,45.903,25.724,29.973,3.1555,-28.4665,-63.9946,-30.9849,-0.8,0.0,42.3332],"direction":[51.4571,52.8956,56.9646,41.8738,63.7467,60.5254,62.2444,51.2681,49.6454,0.0,0.0,21.4578,-7.9511,-21.1713,44.9708,52.1498,56.2875,68.9932,66.4024,64.1983,65.3053,-7.7647,36.6891,43.1049,56.4417,52.5919,42.4958,-39.0409,-61.7755,-61.2356,-62.2328,-56.9202,0.0,0.0,8.4774,-18.4715,-22.6317,0.0,-57.4973,-46.199,13.8126,-22.6469,29.1125,48.8651,57.4511,56.0595,-22.5834,-30.8251,-37.0175,-29.7753,0.0,10.6878],"intensity":[23.0769,11.5385,7.6923,7.6923,73.0769,73.0769,36.5385,30.7692,32.6923,7.6923,42.3077,71.1538,13.4615,32.6923,92.3077,84.6154,15.3846,100.0,96.1538,30.7692,30.7692,84.6154,73.0769,76.9231,75.0,50.0,25.0,98.0769,96.1538,69.2308,57.6923,23.0769,25.0,26.9231,44.2308,67.3077,65.3846,23.0769,92.3077,76.9231,90.3846,63.4615,67.3077,92.3077,78.8462,51.9231,76.9231,65.3846,15.3846,5.7692,65.3846,51.9231],"confirmation":[77.1953,83.3817,78.1923,29.5757,90.0535,54.5352,80.8627,8.7172,82.7618,7.1889,4.932,49.2636,52.3775,77.2553,88.6578,82.5141,82.6854,93.2364,33.9129,79.562,87.1619,56.4258,83.6473,79.8959,87.87,9.5074,51.7295,87.5688,93.0157,54.9959,83.0037,55.3929,5.9698,5.7046,76.4752,78.1215,49.0314,3.5841,91.3879,7.1676,83.303,79.4032,80.6917,79.301,80.4629,54.1617,30.6446,83.0172,78.3862,26.5204,48.9831,76.8719],"persistence":[50.0,62.5,62.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,75.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,37.5,50.0,50.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,37.5,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,12.5,37.5],"assessmentRisk":[29.919,13.9417,30.0162,18.8173,14.9716,31.1243,27.7084,40.8614,8.0499,10.2065,32.6008,4.9849,38.3452,34.6207,13.8337,26.2999,26.2222,11.4861,36.9645,30.1488,19.6464,33.678,21.9705,1.7597,8.403,43.0524,20.713,16.7462,11.8393,33.4572,25.7784,30.7338,23.901,26.5646,32.715,34.8696,7.3725,3.3323,13.8921,35.3692,5.3567,12.1486,29.8226,31.8441,29.8575,34.9462,35.8074,22.3013,33.4161,42.43,26.0727,15.7228],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":26.4,"control":30.2,"force":42.3,"direction":10.7,"confirmation":76.9,"persistence":37.5,"assessmentRisk":15.7,"intensity":51.9,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Follow-through is limited","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+26.4","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+30.2","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+42.3","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+10.7","detail":"Follow-through is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"77/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"48.1","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"9.6%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"13.9","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"38%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility 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