{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"AMBQ Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"eb9237c7-bebe-46dc-8393-a44935970cfb","symbol":"AMBQ","name":"Ambiq Micro, Inc.","exchange":"NYSE","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Technology","industry":"Semiconductors"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price structure remains rotational.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Directional strength and control, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Range pressure and compression."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":55,"displayedObservations":55,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. 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evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-3.7,"sample":2},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-9.2,"sample":2},{"week":3,"averageReturn":2.8,"sample":2},{"week":4,"averageReturn":1.4,"sample":2},{"week":5,"averageReturn":37.1,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":39.9,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":59.3,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":74.2,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":178.3,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":222.0,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":214.1,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":193.7,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":234.1,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":256.8,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":216.0,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":226.7,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":236.3,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":185.6,"sample":1},{"week":19,"averageReturn":177.1,"sample":1},{"week":20,"averageReturn":150.7,"sample":1},{"week":21,"averageReturn":166.1,"sample":1},{"week":22,"averageReturn":154.4,"sample":1},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":1,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-19.9,"medianReturn":-19.9,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-11.4,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-8.4,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-5.7,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-19.9,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-22.3,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-29.7,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-25.4,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-28.7,"sample":1},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying support lags price","tone":"caution","headline":"Price is leading its underlying support","use":"Market Dynamics must catch up or price may correct toward the weaker underlying position.","confirm":"This is a downside risk watch, not a completed reversal. Stronger Market Dynamics or weaker price is needed to close the gap.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has advanced further through its recent range than Market Dynamics. The gap is an early-downside risk watch; stronger underlying support or a price reset is needed to close it.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":0.0,"averageReturn":187.5,"sample":1},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is ahead of the underlying support","detail":"Price is extended relative to Market Dynamics. The gap is a downside-risk warning until support catches up or price resets."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 0.0% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 187.5% across 1 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 9.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 20.6% across 1 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 1.0 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-04-17","price":34.76}],"reversal_warnings":[{"date":"2026-06-19","price":90.48}],"reversal_dangers":[{"date":"2026-06-26","price":80.15}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[39.51,39.47,37.98,38.47,39.71,34.44,34.45,31.21,30.08,29.83,30.77,30.36,31.09,30.56,27.27,24.66,23.42,24.51,29.0,29.12,30.37,30.0,30.35,33.34,34.64,33.26,30.39,29.94,29.59,29.74,30.7,28.39,25.36,24.24,23.77,28.53,28.82,34.76,35.48,40.39,44.18,70.57,81.67,79.66,74.49,84.72,90.48,80.15,82.85,85.28,72.43,70.28,63.59,67.49,64.51],"consensus":[-57.9688,28.0177,-35.1159,14.8671,0.0,-31.0138,-11.5968,-39.0079,-30.5477,-18.5464,-18.4876,-17.2295,0.0,-8.9344,-30.2802,-42.4018,-31.5749,-9.2218,22.5231,0.0,23.5702,0.0,16.5025,38.824,28.3531,0.0,-26.3076,-10.1029,-13.5321,0.0,8.6124,-34.9497,-51.1358,-43.6637,-42.0401,32.8348,15.9114,64.8204,42.3965,68.5409,71.854,85.9972,89.281,28.216,12.2388,76.3361,71.3897,0.0,41.566,37.0889,-31.8104,-17.7494,-39.8294,0.0,-27.2168],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[null,null,-37.7378,-9.1443,-41.5541,-28.3365,-14.5132,-19.1999,-20.9524,0.0,-11.4104,-28.7554,-45.2639,-31.1381,-2.1042,27.4835,0.0,22.1668,0.0,21.4902,41.6018,23.781,0.0,-27.0374,-5.4978,-8.1323,0.0,4.9909,-33.2919,-45.877,-43.2888,-44.8483,34.2,14.3713,61.2555,42.286,66.9682,71.6052,85.2726,91.2725,13.7279,4.3925,73.2948,70.4893,0.0,36.0176,41.506,-28.3943,-14.9808,-30.6679,0.0,-24.0677],"force":[14.8671,0.0,-29.5357,-3.2925,-39.1724,-18.994,-5.2482,-7.2803,-9.3914,0.0,-2.3996,-26.4886,-31.9739,-18.7968,-8.9674,42.7109,0.0,29.1915,0.0,17.0303,44.0205,24.9637,0.0,-62.0933,-12.9113,-14.4752,0.0,20.8896,-62.8675,-78.7761,-45.5394,-33.3717,73.6761,17.8836,90.0653,27.3859,80.6603,80.3197,97.4951,96.0337,22.524,50.3421,81.9731,71.6714,0.0,25.7979,20.8178,-71.1594,-28.5341,-58.3994,0.0,-28.7573],"direction":[null,0.0,-24.3852,-20.3313,-35.9806,-41.3275,-32.6543,-25.6787,-18.5734,0.0,-10.7724,-34.7311,-46.5795,-41.2013,-35.158,2.4344,0.0,21.1589,0.0,10.4253,31.9376,35.9994,0.0,-0.0877,-13.3598,-19.0297,0.0,3.9818,-16.903,-37.4027,-42.7524,-45.0223,2.1023,16.2628,50.8626,53.2448,61.6815,66.0913,78.6127,82.1815,81.0168,75.9465,75.7854,72.2174,0.0,59.1699,43.6631,-7.608,-13.2101,-37.0354,0.0,-29.7155],"intensity":[null,50.0,80.0,50.0,42.8571,37.5,22.2222,80.0,9.0909,8.3333,15.3846,92.8571,53.3333,81.25,17.6471,83.3333,78.9474,30.0,52.381,45.4545,60.8696,70.8333,16.0,69.2308,29.6296,3.5714,3.4483,56.6667,38.7097,59.375,78.7879,11.7647,88.5714,75.0,97.2973,94.7368,84.6154,90.0,100.0,97.619,95.3488,79.5455,93.3333,86.9565,93.617,39.5833,42.8571,96.0,88.2353,92.3077,61.5385,42.3077],"confirmation":[27.4241,24.409,77.7769,48.8286,80.4487,77.4569,50.9243,50.897,73.2178,24.6716,47.9555,77.5973,81.2072,77.7212,4.9312,53.0804,24.624,75.7352,25.6007,73.2209,80.5397,77.0394,5.4984,54.85,48.722,72.4413,24.4331,25.852,80.06,85.286,82.0353,81.1459,57.0644,73.1752,89.5662,81.1111,90.3264,91.2551,95.8806,96.7454,35.1753,13.9393,92.6457,90.867,37.2377,80.9051,79.3053,56.7639,74.0507,81.451,29.3582,76.8043],"persistence":[0.0,0.0,16.6667,28.5714,37.5,37.5,62.5,62.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,50.0,37.5,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,62.5,37.5,25.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,62.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,0.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,0.0,25.0],"assessmentRisk":[null,7.3867,33.2301,40.6356,30.3786,34.7191,39.9111,38.6393,13.0176,27.1804,24.3046,32.6039,28.5469,34.1869,45.2494,23.6907,47.581,38.1568,48.3695,22.9666,29.1526,34.4226,44.6956,14.0613,41.7231,42.8241,45.7345,4.3249,21.3104,23.7595,28.0436,28.9581,13.1754,39.1675,17.5625,28.7919,15.716,14.0716,6.9963,5.3591,35.8887,43.8377,9.2929,5.3811,6.1868,16.83,15.2515,31.8028,29.5678,28.019,48.2368,26.8088],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-27.2,"control":-24.1,"force":-28.8,"direction":-29.7,"confirmation":76.8,"persistence":25.0,"assessmentRisk":26.8,"intensity":42.3,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Normal"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-27.2","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-24.1","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-28.8","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-29.7","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"77/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"53.7","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"16.4%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"36.9","detail":"Directional","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Range position","value":"61%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price is rotating through its trend references.","series":[{"label":"Close","values":[39.51,39.47,37.98,38.47,39.71,34.44,34.45,31.21,30.08,29.83,30.77,30.36,31.09,30.56,27.27,24.66,23.42,24.51,29.0,29.12,30.37,30.0,30.35,33.34,34.64,33.26,30.39,29.94,29.59,29.74,30.7,28.39,25.36,24.24,23.77,28.53,28.82,34.76,35.48,40.39,44.18,70.57,81.67,79.66,74.49,84.72,90.48,80.15,82.85,85.28,72.43,70.28,63.59,67.49,64.51],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.1},{"label":"Fast trend","values":[null,null,null,null,39.2014,38.3357,37.6292,36.4621,35.3017,34.3069,33.6638,33.0631,32.7044,32.3145,31.3973,30.1723,28.9446,28.1383,28.295,28.445,28.795,29.0141,29.257,29.9994,30.8431,31.2825,31.1203,30.9057,30.6665,30.498,30.5347,30.1448,29.2748,28.3594,27.525,27.7077,27.9099,29.1554,30.3053,32.1389,34.3282,40.9176,48.3271,54.024,57.7451,62.6496,67.7097,69.9716,72.3131,74.6707,74.2633,73.5391,71.7302,70.9592,69.7866],"stroke":"#176fa3","width":1.7},{"label":"Slow trend","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,35.663,35.285,34.6913,33.9482,33.1683,32.527,32.2657,32.0327,31.9096,31.7681,31.6631,31.7873,31.9986,32.092,31.966,31.8159,31.651,31.5094,31.4495,31.2229,30.7886,30.3035,29.8195,29.724,29.657,30.035,30.4384,31.1755,32.1388,34.9856,38.4437,41.4967,43.9407,46.9614,50.185,52.4046,54.6598,56.928,58.0763,58.9803,59.3217,59.9268,60.2663],"stroke":"#07865c","width":1.8},{"label":"Upper envelope","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,43.175,42.8801,42.598,42.2494,41.9455,41.9647,42.2494,42.5122,42.4611,42.1161,41.7932,40.6992,39.4591,38.4337,37.4254,36.0948,35.8833,35.3144,35.2102,35.1822,35.1771,35.1708,35.0859,35.0309,35.0686,35.2589,35.1807,34.9184,35.4936,36.3252,38.3165,41.0119,52.9735,64.621,72.6427,78.0243,85.0933,92.4624,96.6662,100.762,104.6797,106.2389,107.0676,106.6883,105.9891,104.3839],"stroke":"#98a9b8","width":1.0,"dash":[6,5]},{"label":"Lower 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Market Dynamics construction and private inputs are not disclosed. Historical research is not a forecast or instruction to trade."}