{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"FGBI Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"f0fb1b02-a9c5-4ce7-847f-20482cc847f3","symbol":"FGBI","name":"First Guaranty Bancshares, Inc.","exchange":"NASDAQ","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Financial Services","industry":"Banks - Regional"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price structure remains rotational.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Range position and boundary pressure, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Range pressure and compression."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price structure remains rotational.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Negative pressure; price rotational","headline":"Market Dynamics is negative while price has no clear direction","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. 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The Market Dynamics bars describe whether the current move is gaining or losing underlying support.","tone":"negative"},"chartSummary":"Price is between the outer positioning zones. The Market Dynamics bars show whether underlying support is strengthening or weakening.","summary":"Price is between the accumulation and distribution zones. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":24,"completedEpisodes":23,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":6.1,"averageExpectedMove":10.0,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":5.7,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":24,"expectedCount":10,"expectedPercent":41.7,"averageReturn":-2.5,"medianReturn":-0.8,"confidenceLow":24.5,"confidenceHigh":61.2,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":23,"expectedCount":11,"expectedPercent":47.8,"averageReturn":-6.2,"medianReturn":-2.1,"confidenceLow":29.2,"confidenceHigh":67.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":21,"expectedCount":8,"expectedPercent":38.1,"averageReturn":-7.7,"medianReturn":-8.1,"confidenceLow":20.8,"confidenceHigh":59.1,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.5,"sample":24},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-3.1,"sample":24},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-2.8,"sample":24},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-2.5,"sample":24},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-3.1,"sample":24},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-2.6,"sample":23},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-3.4,"sample":23},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-4.7,"sample":23},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-6.0,"sample":23},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-7.9,"sample":23},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-7.1,"sample":23},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-6.2,"sample":23},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-5.9,"sample":23},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-6.3,"sample":23},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-4.9,"sample":22},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-4.8,"sample":22},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-4.1,"sample":22},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-3.9,"sample":22},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-5.3,"sample":22},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-6.3,"sample":22},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-6.3,"sample":22},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-6.8,"sample":22},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-7.0,"sample":22},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-7.6,"sample":21},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-8.1,"sample":21},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-7.7,"sample":21}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Negative pressure; price rotational","tone":"caution","headline":"Market Dynamics is negative while price remains rotational","use":"Treat the pressure as context until price establishes a clear response.","confirm":"The underlying condition is weak, but a negative price response is still required.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price is between the accumulation and distribution zones. The Market Dynamics bars describe whether the current move is gaining or losing underlying support.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":41.7,"averageReturn":4.5,"sample":12},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has no clear direction","detail":"Price remains rotational while the Market Dynamics condition develops."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 41.7% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 4.5% across 12 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 7.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 12.2% across 12 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 6.8 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-01-16","price":8.022639}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2024-12-13","price":12.718461}],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[10.2353,10.1467,10.0975,10.5994,10.9242,10.5772,10.6268,10.4781,10.26,10.151,10.6367,10.5475,11.9452,13.3628,14.1856,14.0072,12.7185,11.9155,11.3802,10.7452,10.388,10.7353,10.4178,10.1995,10.269,10.1102,8.7013,8.4731,7.3619,6.7765,8.1755,7.5006,7.6496,7.58,9.7756,10.2723,9.2391,9.5471,9.398,9.2888,8.792,8.8119,7.3615,8.0271,8.0319,8.8127,8.942,8.6039,8.5342,8.0071,8.0269,8.0767,7.7982,8.3751,8.5243,8.1065,8.206,8.0366,8.7835,8.8632,7.7478,7.9469,6.5328,5.7624,5.6963,5.0789,4.7702,4.3917,4.7503,5.0391,5.0191,5.3684,7.5836,8.0226,8.1723,8.4118,8.9107,9.2699,9.2699,8.791,8.5914,8.302,8.0925,8.1224,9.1914,9.7709,9.8009,9.1115,9.2414,9.3413,9.0116,8.8218,9.5511,9.7109,10.6501,10.5901,10.72,10.0,9.94,9.98,9.29,9.59,9.6,8.31],"consensus":[0.0,9.8602,0.0,42.7043,48.8095,0.0,25.1585,0.0,-19.3184,-15.777,36.5368,0.0,72.0839,82.0583,77.3698,21.6819,-9.3612,-30.9568,-42.6755,-50.6229,-52.9082,0.0,-38.8983,-36.3713,-14.5483,-31.2625,-75.4608,-51.6568,-81.6754,-68.5688,9.4759,-59.5315,-17.3744,-19.0403,59.97,52.0551,-17.4724,30.4659,0.0,0.0,-32.4977,0.0,-66.5693,0.0,-24.7855,22.8156,21.8648,-8.5664,0.0,-40.5241,-21.2535,-16.6466,-35.3138,32.1165,21.019,-28.0231,8.2709,-24.7629,49.7777,23.7608,-54.9003,0.0,-69.8128,-73.2805,-54.0002,-68.8077,-60.0945,-64.4838,-16.3765,-9.3552,-21.3492,13.8173,70.5904,62.9128,44.7836,56.5945,58.3074,63.9348,51.6877,0.0,0.0,0.0,-18.7426,-9.4259,60.5176,59.5302,46.8864,-10.3201,22.3307,17.806,-15.4744,-18.6676,41.9851,28.7696,67.5234,28.066,39.8158,-19.0349,0.0,0.0,-42.6861,0.0,-8.436,-66.2977],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-38.2921,34.1631,21.213,-36.5844,5.0903,-29.6138,47.0308,15.956,-53.0799,0.0,-64.5031,-72.5694,-58.2013,-63.5956,-58.0012,-64.7733,-13.5576,-10.0268,-28.2937,7.8722,64.4,64.7349,40.1763,59.9674,52.8768,68.5077,54.2998,0.0,0.0,0.0,-17.2898,-8.3186,57.2347,54.1165,49.1023,-21.5256,19.358,24.2805,-10.0234,-17.3912,35.2162,29.9498,64.0081,22.0494,34.0509,-20.8611,0.0,0.0,-37.2018,0.0,-4.92,-65.7264],"force":[-31.525,58.9462,22.4583,-43.0218,15.4052,-25.3464,83.9072,15.422,-90.6926,0.0,-95.1745,-88.2255,-34.0486,-80.173,-53.0769,-59.8525,-41.604,-33.4191,-0.8738,49.9874,98.3785,59.3142,22.1926,34.174,50.9876,46.3184,21.5507,0.0,0.0,0.0,-36.3834,-17.0782,79.2869,64.8985,23.0702,-63.7743,24.8038,14.6569,-35.6187,-34.6222,70.8498,21.5386,89.1586,1.263,33.545,-69.49,0.0,0.0,-61.9192,0.0,-6.2258,-81.0355],"direction":[-34.6164,10.6135,19.7693,-7.5253,6.81,-18.8024,28.5388,38.6368,-31.4149,0.0,-57.7656,-63.4181,-63.45,-66.6464,-67.4993,-67.4609,-61.0127,-39.1409,-29.2864,5.2242,57.8165,63.4009,66.1855,68.7544,69.7422,71.2918,70.2287,0.0,0.0,0.0,-7.8023,-5.2254,50.8629,61.8828,61.3657,-40.6678,23.9616,12.6559,-7.3153,-8.7303,29.1033,32.5856,56.087,54.0872,50.8834,-19.0916,0.0,0.0,-35.216,0.0,-14.0331,-56.4235],"intensity":[26.9231,55.7692,48.0769,38.4615,38.4615,13.4615,65.3846,67.3077,80.7692,59.6154,88.4615,80.7692,36.5385,73.0769,55.7692,28.8462,26.9231,23.0769,15.3846,36.5385,100.0,96.1538,71.1538,15.3846,73.0769,25.0,15.3846,42.3077,26.9231,32.6923,25.0,38.4615,84.6154,96.1538,7.6923,69.2308,73.0769,57.6923,19.2308,13.4615,88.4615,57.6923,80.7692,61.5385,51.9231,69.2308,75.0,42.3077,78.8462,36.5385,5.7692,92.3077],"confirmation":[79.1396,79.0638,74.767,54.6274,25.5793,75.868,85.0109,75.4682,86.6867,4.3027,91.1939,91.9161,84.608,90.4443,87.0483,88.4893,35.0586,31.4759,51.5684,29.3956,91.5301,87.9947,81.7125,85.3756,86.518,87.8526,83.5818,33.033,6.2522,26.9698,51.8907,48.5997,87.9877,87.2958,82.2441,36.1032,75.2665,73.5033,50.9821,74.4793,82.4181,76.9679,90.3204,53.5893,80.6378,34.3406,2.4872,24.0281,82.3293,27.7647,25.3524,89.6731],"persistence":[37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,37.5,62.5,87.5,87.5,100.0,100.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,100.0,87.5,75.0,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,12.5,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,25.0,37.5,50.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,37.5],"assessmentRisk":[26.3308,13.0562,25.2233,17.7764,36.7162,24.4664,6.3935,36.782,10.8075,8.9485,15.0527,13.3565,22.8948,15.588,19.757,17.0647,38.1331,1.3102,30.5039,40.2885,14.5674,18.4761,27.5639,21.685,19.1089,15.8975,21.5491,23.8601,25.4113,42.0381,38.1384,34.2496,5.1902,20.161,26.5368,53.8536,5.701,46.5737,39.634,19.5696,8.2397,19.0604,16.105,35.8963,29.2863,36.7522,45.6005,42.0472,28.4843,38.154,27.4659,16.5691],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-66.3,"control":-65.7,"force":-81.0,"direction":-56.4,"confirmation":89.7,"persistence":37.5,"assessmentRisk":16.6,"intensity":92.3,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Seller control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-66.3","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-65.7","detail":"Seller control supports the view","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-81.0","detail":"Downward commitment","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"-56.4","detail":"Downward follow-through","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"90/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"41.7","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"10.5%","detail":"Normal","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"22.9","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"15%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility 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