{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"NJR Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"f3934ac7-a6d2-4d84-a2e0-296fc3fb215f","symbol":"NJR","name":"NewJersey Resources Corporation","exchange":"NYSE","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Utilities","industry":"Utilities - Regulated Gas"},"summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price has moved below the distribution zone after Market Dynamics weakened.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Strength versus the research benchmark, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Range pressure and compression, Range position and boundary pressure, Directional strength and control."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price has moved below the distribution zone after Market Dynamics weakened.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Rollover warning","headline":"Price has moved below distribution as Market Dynamics weakened","summary":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price has moved below the distribution zone after Market Dynamics weakened.","take":"The prior extension has started to roll over. Further price weakness would confirm the downside transition; a recovery in both readings would remove the 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record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.5,"sample":22},{"week":2,"averageReturn":1.0,"sample":21},{"week":3,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":21},{"week":4,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":21},{"week":5,"averageReturn":2.2,"sample":21},{"week":6,"averageReturn":1.8,"sample":21},{"week":7,"averageReturn":2.1,"sample":21},{"week":8,"averageReturn":1.9,"sample":21},{"week":9,"averageReturn":2.5,"sample":21},{"week":10,"averageReturn":2.5,"sample":21},{"week":11,"averageReturn":2.9,"sample":21},{"week":12,"averageReturn":2.6,"sample":20},{"week":13,"averageReturn":3.7,"sample":20},{"week":14,"averageReturn":4.3,"sample":20},{"week":15,"averageReturn":4.9,"sample":19},{"week":16,"averageReturn":5.7,"sample":19},{"week":17,"averageReturn":6.0,"sample":19},{"week":18,"averageReturn":6.1,"sample":19},{"week":19,"averageReturn":6.0,"sample":19},{"week":20,"averageReturn":7.2,"sample":19},{"week":21,"averageReturn":6.2,"sample":19},{"week":22,"averageReturn":4.7,"sample":19},{"week":23,"averageReturn":5.2,"sample":19},{"week":24,"averageReturn":5.8,"sample":19},{"week":25,"averageReturn":5.7,"sample":19},{"week":26,"averageReturn":6.6,"sample":19}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":1,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-3.6,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-8.4,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-7.4,"sample":1},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Rollover warning","tone":"negative","headline":"Price has moved below distribution as Market Dynamics weakened","use":"The upward trend may still be visible, but this transition increases downside risk. Further price weakness would confirm the rollover.","confirm":"Further price weakness with weak Market Dynamics would confirm the rollover.","invalidate":"A recovery in both price and Market Dynamics would remove the rollover warning.","level":"negative","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has moved down through distribution conditions as Market Dynamics contracted. The completed tape now carries a stronger continuation-risk warning.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":23.5,"averageReturn":3.3,"sample":17},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics weakened this week and remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has moved below distribution","detail":"Price left the upper zone as Market Dynamics weakened."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 23.5% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 3.3% across 17 cases.","watch":"A recovery in both price and Market Dynamics would remove the rollover warning."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 5 cases. Distinct visits lasted 3.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 4.9% across 17 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 5.3 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2026-07-31","price":57.89}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2026-07-24","price":60.05}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[42.7436,42.929,42.6695,44.1527,44.1619,43.9078,42.9533,42.7474,44.0014,43.0468,42.3263,43.8142,44.9278,47.7633,48.2686,46.0227,44.9156,43.9333,43.9427,44.1505,42.7431,44.7078,44.2733,45.2935,43.5838,43.1398,44.3016,45.6996,45.1423,46.9151,46.2192,47.0677,45.6281,45.59,47.4204,46.8389,47.2107,45.0751,44.4364,43.607,43.75,42.6345,42.9751,42.6477,43.0232,43.6972,44.0343,44.0343,44.2557,44.0632,45.2187,45.2283,46.1334,45.5364,45.3053,45.4498,45.1898,46.4776,45.6994,44.4543,45.4271,44.7948,43.0925,44.503,45.3492,47.499,46.7694,43.8512,45.0234,45.5148,45.2593,45.1905,45.672,47.2839,47.107,48.6304,51.5199,53.2988,52.3356,53.3086,53.5936,54.5913,52.4101,54.1253,55.4837,56.4752,55.2061,55.3449,55.5233,55.0772,56.842,56.7825,54.7797,54.9384,55.09,55.11,57.61,57.49,58.37,58.6,60.05,57.89,55.02,55.6],"consensus":[29.5582,21.5171,0.0,60.8342,23.9239,14.6782,-14.5653,0.0,35.5148,-26.151,-32.0718,43.9862,47.6913,74.5351,53.1545,-10.049,-21.981,-37.2972,-14.3551,0.0,-52.3993,40.3071,-10.8159,35.178,-34.5832,-30.8394,23.7399,45.1307,0.0,62.3643,0.0,44.6639,-21.6927,0.0,44.3366,0.0,33.1153,-41.4998,-28.9319,-41.3484,-21.9414,-48.5744,-18.2688,-31.136,-13.0418,13.8243,13.4926,0.0,0.0,0.0,41.5286,14.1686,47.9322,9.6517,0.0,17.644,0.0,50.3508,-10.9875,-40.5576,28.561,-25.7843,-59.2014,23.775,24.9111,60.6442,13.0767,-49.6261,19.2002,0.0,-14.368,0.0,19.3782,52.6409,21.4606,62.8671,72.8496,73.2555,20.6645,60.3518,41.0819,58.9007,-16.3938,55.0817,59.8643,52.4861,11.7809,27.4194,21.8863,0.0,52.3417,20.6644,-25.6236,9.1482,0.0,0.0,58.7082,25.4356,45.7771,25.0977,52.4166,-18.873,-51.9549,-4.1675],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[49.0127,4.3639,0.0,19.969,0.0,52.7564,-18.3775,-42.5371,33.0165,-20.9249,-58.5383,28.2362,31.6081,52.729,3.6386,-51.1212,24.9558,0.0,-11.8406,0.0,19.0894,55.177,17.1041,65.4471,69.2763,79.3489,9.4014,62.2868,37.65,66.4258,-18.8265,60.1074,66.7538,54.3354,2.0938,25.7372,24.9247,0.0,54.556,17.0868,-26.4017,12.9483,0.0,0.0,53.3164,24.6716,47.7572,17.9042,55.5498,-24.1059,-42.5636,-7.3944],"force":[50.123,15.0303,0.0,15.0879,0.0,63.9117,-38.8831,-59.5557,48.4852,-37.4849,-74.1937,60.1698,38.3324,87.964,14.8145,-76.7376,46.6321,0.0,-19.4285,0.0,27.8183,63.2611,3.1201,69.6337,89.3761,69.2947,23.9486,48.6417,18.3614,47.9277,-78.7951,60.4325,54.3688,43.0446,27.9816,10.0957,6.27,0.0,59.9993,0.639,-53.8586,14.5879,0.0,0.0,91.2496,8.698,44.3862,10.3855,54.4583,-57.9119,-85.246,-16.0002],"direction":[45.1323,33.325,0.0,16.8125,0.0,37.9153,-17.3837,-24.7253,9.2374,-22.9803,-49.2504,7.3197,7.6708,50.1759,43.7854,-28.552,6.9718,0.0,-13.642,0.0,13.6797,42.1565,39.5398,55.0853,65.1286,69.1209,65.4032,66.5048,61.233,58.1383,-30.9589,45.5159,55.916,57.1164,51.2537,41.716,29.5684,0.0,44.3415,39.9698,-4.5664,0.9198,0.0,0.0,41.6263,38.2641,44.5075,43.8274,47.3774,-14.9925,-38.9084,-31.7866],"intensity":[30.7692,11.5385,5.7692,1.9231,3.8462,61.5385,25.0,63.4615,48.0769,19.2308,76.9231,71.1538,76.9231,96.1538,88.4615,98.0769,75.0,88.4615,61.5385,11.5385,26.9231,75.0,51.9231,73.0769,100.0,90.3846,50.0,50.0,46.1538,51.9231,92.3077,78.8462,80.7692,73.0769,59.6154,3.8462,7.6923,51.9231,84.6154,36.5385,88.4615,82.6923,63.4615,21.1538,96.1538,96.1538,25.0,88.4615,59.6154,84.6154,98.0769,92.3077],"confirmation":[83.3886,5.6234,48.0268,73.5327,24.8685,84.4889,30.6287,81.5273,77.6788,76.6816,87.4115,55.5441,53.6119,88.3594,6.6388,84.6838,53.713,25.2999,72.7905,24.5883,74.4627,85.1301,51.7082,88.2844,91.87,91.2282,33.2003,86.9262,80.5061,86.3991,36.3819,85.7126,86.8841,84.4796,8.6751,76.2719,51.8147,3.9582,84.949,51.4875,54.3815,48.3686,2.0187,2.9607,87.8605,75.6409,82.5761,75.6925,84.7878,33.0144,85.7833,5.886],"persistence":[62.5,62.5,50.0,62.5,62.5,75.0,50.0,25.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,0.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,37.5,37.5,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,62.5,87.5,100.0,100.0,100.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,62.5,50.0,37.5,37.5,50.0,50.0,50.0,75.0,50.0,37.5,37.5],"assessmentRisk":[25.9244,44.5,5.0733,12.6729,45.394,21.5114,34.0105,24.0261,0.9942,35.8175,20.0863,9.2845,16.4831,18.9498,43.3312,2.6568,20.9509,44.5844,32.9062,36.6211,13.1767,16.8184,33.283,18.1292,13.5504,13.3478,39.6013,19.699,27.8945,13.5936,11.1351,0.6352,15.1933,18.8621,42.4867,22.1724,9.4528,41.2911,18.2087,32.6958,13.7978,10.092,44.5092,47.2402,19.9239,36.2904,26.8516,37.3417,22.7545,24.739,22.885,46.4564],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":-4.2,"control":-7.4,"force":-16.0,"direction":-31.8,"confirmation":5.9,"persistence":37.5,"assessmentRisk":46.5,"intensity":92.3,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the downward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the downward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: downward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"negative","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"downward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Control support is limited","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Downward commitment","forcePath":"Broadly stable","directionState":"Downward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Present","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"-4.2","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"-7.4","detail":"Control support is limited","tone":"negative"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"-16.0","detail":"Downward 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