{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"0013 Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"f53ba677-a88a-4d54-90d3-84edbaa42b9a","symbol":"0013","name":"HUTCHMED (China) Limited","exchange":"HKG","country":"HK","asset_type":"equity","currency":"HKD","sector":"Healthcare","industry":"Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price has not yet responded to the same extent.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Strength versus the research benchmark, Range pressure and compression, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover, Directional strength and control."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price has not yet responded to the same extent.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","headline":"Market Dynamics is improving before price has fully responded","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. Price has not yet responded to the same extent.","take":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. 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This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"diagnosis":{"label":"Underlying strength ahead of price","detail":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","tone":"positive"},"chartSummary":"Price is between the outer positioning zones. The Market Dynamics bars show whether underlying support is strengthening or weakening.","summary":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":34.0,"averageExpectedMove":34.0,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":11.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-12.8,"medianReturn":-12.8,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-33.5,"medianReturn":-33.5,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-27.0,"medianReturn":-27.0,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-6.6,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-1.5,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-1.8,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-12.8,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-15.5,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-20.9,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-18.6,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-21.0,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-20.6,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-26.8,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-34.0,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-33.5,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-30.7,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-29.2,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-34.4,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-37.6,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-37.7,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-37.6,"sample":1},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-36.5,"sample":1},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-24.1,"sample":1},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-23.2,"sample":1},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-23.1,"sample":1},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-27.4,"sample":1},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-27.4,"sample":1},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-27.3,"sample":1},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-27.0,"sample":1}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"caution","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":37.5,"averageReturn":-6.2,"sample":16},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 37.5% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of -6.2% across 16 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use distribution to protect capital before considering the short case","tone":"negative","finding":"After distribution, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were lower across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Review long exposure and define the evidence that would confirm a rollover. Short exposure should begin only after price weakens and the loss limit is known.","watch":"A sustained repair in price and Market Dynamics invalidates the downside setup."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 11.9% across 16 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 5.1 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-08-14","price":19.190001}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2024-10-04","price":33.549999}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[26.95,27.75,27.9,27.0,27.2,30.2,33.55,31.35,33.05,32.95,29.25,28.35,26.55,27.3,26.5,26.65,24.55,22.15,22.3,23.25,23.75,22.0,20.95,20.9,20.95,21.3,25.45,25.75,25.8,24.35,24.35,24.4,24.5,21.5,22.1,23.4,24.0,22.5,21.2,21.3,22.45,24.1,27.2,23.65,23.75,24.95,25.55,27.9,28.0,27.3,23.54,25.7,25.4,23.7,25.02,28.0,26.76,24.54,25.64,24.74,23.76,23.22,23.26,23.62,23.78,21.92,22.48,22.0,21.48,20.8,20.68,20.94,23.24,25.44,24.32,23.38,23.38,23.26,23.46,22.7,22.18,22.08,21.98,21.88,23.56,23.52,24.72,21.88,21.14,21.0,19.89,19.17,18.32,17.64,17.36,16.42,15.83,18.05,17.71,17.45,17.54,17.71,19.48,19.19],"consensus":[-44.1437,0.0,-13.3481,-21.4962,0.0,46.6281,62.8387,0.0,46.2742,19.3203,-42.2826,-33.0198,-48.6925,-14.8774,-34.4451,-20.205,-51.5381,-62.1324,-26.9252,-18.4063,-16.9517,-41.3594,-46.3736,-41.8455,-28.1612,0.0,56.8203,28.4416,24.2008,-8.8562,0.0,0.0,0.0,-41.0576,-14.0443,0.0,15.3668,-22.9866,-32.7695,-20.6427,10.3303,31.9435,59.7543,-26.604,0.0,24.6013,16.0486,55.7255,24.954,0.0,-47.8824,29.2995,-9.0758,-39.0462,23.3464,52.8024,0.0,-26.8528,16.9618,-28.3694,-31.4658,-32.2371,-19.4125,-10.3394,0.0,-47.7646,0.0,-34.7666,-36.5411,-32.468,-30.4915,-10.5398,48.144,65.6049,0.0,0.0,11.8237,-11.9888,0.0,-25.5141,-19.8742,-18.709,-24.4026,-11.6337,43.7062,14.2257,53.604,-43.9535,-44.988,-28.5576,-58.5525,-46.3145,-52.4492,-49.3856,-34.2559,-60.2432,-54.856,0.0,-15.9124,-19.1486,-9.9416,0.0,52.2589,5.9205],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-3.3667,-34.0251,22.4464,49.8006,0.0,-37.0089,21.2318,-29.2012,-30.5403,-37.6538,-13.7969,-7.3775,0.0,-52.6994,0.0,-37.6158,-35.0334,-31.0462,-28.7563,-0.6478,43.3618,61.7614,0.0,0.0,15.0499,-7.3514,0.0,-29.0254,-13.2978,-16.4208,-24.2136,-6.9624,39.1978,9.2858,53.2528,-46.7667,-49.4324,-24.3056,-56.6923,-43.4457,-50.6215,-50.5544,-25.3389,-63.3772,-58.6314,0.0,-20.1639,-27.7122,-23.9517,0.0,46.2791,4.9309],"force":[-16.2786,-59.3956,44.6268,78.6128,0.0,-41.9846,25.5291,-32.4235,-29.7508,-24.9866,-6.3094,-3.215,0.0,-52.5259,0.0,-25.5756,-28.188,-21.6837,-11.4043,-10.7062,88.5009,91.3744,0.0,0.0,12.366,-18.4385,0.0,-35.6884,-22.7452,-12.7345,-19.3568,-2.8184,73.4703,4.1544,64.0545,-77.8261,-41.8114,-14.3516,-67.7568,-36.7959,-44.7492,-28.1243,-8.3197,-48.0462,-32.6869,0.0,-0.7676,-12.5739,-5.4669,0.0,82.8933,13.3876],"direction":[-10.4555,-30.2492,9.1746,37.7969,0.0,-4.4375,5.9622,-24.5229,-33.7485,-31.2256,-35.1897,-23.4062,0.0,-38.724,0.0,-38.0754,-44.2307,-41.796,-46.1084,-37.0207,24.7831,51.5906,0.0,0.0,7.7493,-12.6818,0.0,-14.2338,-25.3394,-25.5915,-28.2228,-23.2691,27.5987,27.0651,46.5408,-16.5437,-42.1775,-43.5641,-54.104,-56.3921,-60.038,-63.2365,-62.9727,-65.3737,-66.3763,0.0,-21.8713,-14.0579,-4.9363,0.0,37.2112,32.1136],"intensity":[40.3846,50.0,38.4615,76.9231,67.3077,61.5385,21.1538,11.5385,38.4615,3.8462,3.8462,15.3846,3.8462,59.6154,32.6923,5.7692,15.3846,26.9231,11.5385,5.7692,76.9231,71.1538,53.8462,26.9231,53.8462,19.2308,9.6154,28.8462,71.1538,50.0,5.7692,32.6923,67.3077,57.6923,42.3077,88.4615,86.5385,19.2308,40.3846,48.0769,23.0769,44.2308,13.4615,34.6154,63.4615,80.7692,7.6923,25.0,26.9231,23.0769,76.9231,75.0],"confirmation":[48.5441,81.1915,76.1331,85.7291,29.6609,54.2326,50.9571,77.1891,78.0309,78.0124,51.2316,26.2932,24.8562,83.3546,4.7187,78.8018,79.4616,78.0828,77.202,5.16,84.7089,89.8375,31.1683,30.6698,49.0843,49.437,0.8659,76.4211,74.5474,73.8397,75.6579,26.192,82.9618,49.6539,85.4771,83.0546,82.2316,76.7703,87.0457,82.5743,84.5769,83.1376,78.3073,86.8584,84.8208,6.7445,49.899,73.7967,26.3312,3.2718,85.7476,5.3794],"persistence":[37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,0.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,50.0,62.5,62.5,37.5,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,75.0,50.0,37.5],"assessmentRisk":[38.5982,27.5985,19.4652,14.3421,34.7229,34.2513,7.3586,32.6903,30.9654,15.4714,33.9008,26.9221,2.8137,12.4215,21.8574,24.9339,31.0759,26.2436,34.0109,41.2017,23.6707,17.1789,48.3822,52.3645,0.16,41.8255,34.3827,16.049,31.0669,31.5263,32.784,27.8025,20.7555,38.8572,23.1315,21.9767,26.6593,35.0285,20.7141,26.2955,23.3246,25.1434,32.0865,19.3411,21.709,14.8759,22.8959,47.5534,53.5415,17.6016,21.2926,44.6871],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":5.9,"control":4.9,"force":13.4,"direction":32.1,"confirmation":5.4,"persistence":37.5,"assessmentRisk":44.7,"intensity":75.0,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Control support is limited","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Broadly stable","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Present","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+5.9","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+4.9","detail":"Control support is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+13.4","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+32.1","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"5/100","detail":"Limited support","tone":"caution"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"47.3","detail":"Negative","tone":"negative"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"8.1%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"21.4","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"39%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price is rotating 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Market Dynamics construction and private inputs are not disclosed. Historical research is not a forecast or instruction to trade."}