{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"UMH Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"f78c2e06-528d-4ba3-9589-21be0ec6e3e9","symbol":"UMH","name":"UMH Properties Inc","exchange":"NYSE","country":"US","asset_type":"equity","currency":"USD","sector":"Real Estate","industry":"Reit - Residential"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. The completed evidence supports the upward price structure.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Range position and boundary pressure, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Range pressure and compression, Strength versus the research benchmark, Activity pressure and cumulative balance."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":260,"displayedObservations":104,"assetType":"Equity","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":17,"completedEpisodes":15,"activeEpisodes":2,"medianExpectedMove":4.9,"averageExpectedMove":7.3,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":6.7,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":16,"expectedCount":7,"expectedPercent":43.8,"averageReturn":-0.6,"medianReturn":-1.7,"confidenceLow":23.1,"confidenceHigh":66.8,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":15,"expectedCount":8,"expectedPercent":53.3,"averageReturn":2.3,"medianReturn":1.5,"confidenceLow":30.1,"confidenceHigh":75.2,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":13,"expectedCount":5,"expectedPercent":38.5,"averageReturn":5.2,"medianReturn":-0.9,"confidenceLow":17.7,"confidenceHigh":64.5,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":17},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":17},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":16},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-0.6,"sample":16},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-1.0,"sample":16},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":16},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-0.6,"sample":16},{"week":8,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":16},{"week":9,"averageReturn":0.8,"sample":15},{"week":10,"averageReturn":1.8,"sample":15},{"week":11,"averageReturn":1.0,"sample":15},{"week":12,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":15},{"week":13,"averageReturn":2.5,"sample":15},{"week":14,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":14},{"week":15,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":14},{"week":16,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":14},{"week":17,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":14},{"week":18,"averageReturn":1.9,"sample":14},{"week":19,"averageReturn":2.0,"sample":14},{"week":20,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":14},{"week":21,"averageReturn":1.9,"sample":14},{"week":22,"averageReturn":3.2,"sample":14},{"week":23,"averageReturn":4.2,"sample":14},{"week":24,"averageReturn":5.1,"sample":14},{"week":25,"averageReturn":4.7,"sample":13},{"week":26,"averageReturn":5.2,"sample":13}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Evidence aligned","tone":"positive","headline":"Price and Market Dynamics remain aligned upward","use":"The advance retains underlying support while price structure and Market Dynamics remain intact.","confirm":"The advance remains supported. Reclassify it only if the broader Market Dynamics path weakens or price structure breaks.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics remains positive and has strengthened across the recent completed path. A slight weekly pause does not yet change the broader constructive reading.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":53.3,"averageReturn":0.2,"sample":15},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price structure is upward","detail":"Price is responding in the same broad direction as Market Dynamics."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Trend participation","title":"Let confirmation support the position, then manage extension","tone":"positive","approach":"This is most useful for holding or selectively adding to an established upward case. Risk should still tighten as price becomes extended; confirmation is support, not immunity from reversal.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 53.3% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of 0.2% across 15 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 2 cases. Distinct visits lasted 3.5 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 8.2% across 17 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 7.8 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2024-09-27","price":17.569689}],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[17.8154,17.7062,17.8245,18.5797,17.9609,17.5697,17.2967,17.0966,17.2512,17.2421,16.5688,17.597,17.6288,17.7024,17.6656,17.7208,17.822,17.546,17.2424,17.4816,16.1843,16.8192,16.5339,16.5523,16.6719,16.5891,16.4388,17.6309,16.979,16.8207,17.0535,17.4167,16.6251,15.6751,16.1035,16.2805,16.5599,16.0942,16.2406,15.5423,15.8443,15.7971,15.8254,15.7971,15.7877,16.3633,16.1368,15.9575,15.8632,15.3158,15.4291,15.2828,15.3211,15.0149,14.5842,14.5268,14.1249,14.0866,13.943,13.5124,13.6655,14.0483,13.9143,14.5364,14.4598,14.8163,14.6997,14.8843,15.4866,15.4089,15.5061,15.4478,15.6226,16.1279,15.6421,15.1854,15.4575,15.6324,15.9396,14.856,14.6097,14.4324,13.9299,14.0974,14.3732,15.4175,15.3584,15.4865,15.5062,15.585,14.92,15.3,15.02,15.26,15.28,15.06,15.45,15.52,15.28,15.69,15.54,15.11,15.9,16.45],"consensus":[51.8546,33.8926,42.5767,75.2431,0.0,0.0,-12.1053,-8.4915,8.3432,0.0,-48.0599,39.3302,10.83,19.2582,0.0,10.8588,11.01,-14.5422,-23.8276,12.1122,-64.2205,0.0,-38.0606,-25.0075,0.0,-21.8485,-18.7234,59.4956,-22.6065,-9.1794,20.8022,27.4034,-47.2072,-54.0585,0.0,0.0,10.4028,-26.0229,0.0,-50.8636,0.0,-15.6748,-18.054,-11.3686,-11.3201,36.5989,0.0,-8.5342,-13.7992,-48.9517,-21.2669,-31.4022,-14.3472,-41.0607,-51.946,-26.9618,-64.7178,-46.2488,-41.1764,-63.2663,-23.0832,0.0,-17.1567,43.4005,0.0,41.388,14.3996,30.4588,60.1775,15.4736,42.3115,21.6866,31.3793,60.1356,0.0,-23.2166,19.5364,15.4003,38.2335,-49.5968,-39.7345,-38.9731,-58.2369,-28.3369,0.0,58.5958,27.2169,35.6055,25.0914,21.2353,-44.0842,19.5487,-28.0954,14.7821,0.0,-16.8652,41.5571,27.5796,-12.9279,35.4437,0.0,-34.268,53.8767,54.92],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[-8.4293,-42.9211,-47.1365,-18.8636,-64.1898,-47.7685,-40.1772,-64.8853,-21.2816,0.0,-15.9639,37.7145,0.0,39.218,7.1377,29.1662,55.4958,4.3057,43.7248,14.6435,32.1677,61.6829,0.0,-24.3051,24.0395,25.0673,42.684,-50.8918,-38.0651,-37.4568,-57.6536,-28.5499,0.0,53.1544,25.276,33.2877,18.6932,19.7174,-40.8051,22.8956,-26.4168,21.8062,0.0,-16.4137,39.0902,32.5026,-17.3867,31.4735,0.0,-34.7739,51.168,51.4597],"force":[-1.6299,-46.0228,-60.741,-7.9033,-75.9216,-32.4554,-27.5211,-66.1142,-9.479,0.0,-8.1235,79.2486,0.0,52.0839,2.4846,31.4976,75.27,11.5888,27.5125,0.6162,21.3153,61.291,0.0,-45.7537,28.2088,13.1879,33.8696,-77.8534,-38.3263,-28.1762,-60.6509,-1.8363,0.0,94.5314,14.3722,30.2471,13.4522,13.96,-83.6071,35.7267,-46.7327,27.2466,0.0,-25.5877,67.8111,25.1185,-28.1913,42.2425,0.0,-52.2897,79.4965,67.0335],"direction":[-32.5228,-35.3901,-51.1603,-49.8302,-57.3184,-54.3644,-52.0722,-59.3817,-48.401,0.0,-24.9723,24.2931,0.0,36.2281,31.2096,31.194,54.7477,47.5673,51.2669,44.7862,37.6667,57.5418,0.0,-5.8748,8.1954,5.9325,36.2643,-27.9333,-42.6482,-48.4181,-57.1791,-49.6458,0.0,39.1462,38.6099,42.0818,40.7174,28.1667,-19.6011,4.1678,-16.7013,2.1488,0.0,-11.1508,25.6236,23.7111,-3.0702,35.1249,0.0,-20.8173,38.6725,50.222],"intensity":[26.9231,36.5385,69.2308,44.2308,53.8462,13.4615,65.3846,59.6154,15.3846,51.9231,19.2308,78.8462,86.5385,44.2308,15.3846,21.1538,75.0,92.3077,57.6923,11.5385,19.2308,75.0,71.1538,90.3846,32.6923,65.3846,34.6154,98.0769,98.0769,25.0,73.0769,38.4615,32.6923,96.1538,82.6923,21.1538,15.3846,17.3077,86.5385,53.8462,38.4615,42.3077,51.9231,55.7692,59.6154,23.0769,30.7692,63.4615,59.6154,67.3077,92.3077,86.5385],"confirmation":[49.8754,81.2623,84.964,53.5037,89.0592,82.3561,80.7755,88.3073,31.1106,7.4332,73.233,83.0673,25.2529,81.6032,27.0221,77.7982,87.7881,6.7693,81.0671,51.7382,77.7226,87.255,31.4212,53.4329,74.4473,50.0467,80.0339,84.7124,80.6976,80.1655,86.7183,53.8701,6.264,87.9287,76.3475,79.2658,75.772,74.5967,83.3614,52.0309,77.5841,50.7948,24.8086,73.6696,82.136,76.6754,50.5225,79.6097,3.0738,79.5073,86.0626,93.9963],"persistence":[62.5,87.5,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,62.5,50.0,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,62.5,87.5,87.5,100.0,100.0,87.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,25.0,37.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,37.5,62.5,50.0,50.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,0.0,12.5,37.5],"assessmentRisk":[41.4049,21.3106,23.8489,36.1878,17.6241,26.7593,29.3156,18.3637,37.0148,9.227,2.526,28.1856,46.6783,28.4769,42.1455,26.2184,19.713,40.2659,28.368,36.951,8.955,19.4676,22.5322,20.3986,33.7313,53.5962,17.9881,6.9203,28.02,30.2484,20.8746,33.1351,23.0377,18.3806,36.0437,31.848,36.6192,6.5031,13.2405,27.4896,27.2329,40.3357,32.0715,19.4263,19.2998,15.5354,6.464,30.8043,12.8713,25.5512,19.0651,21.1284],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":54.9,"control":51.5,"force":67.0,"direction":50.2,"confirmation":94.0,"persistence":37.5,"assessmentRisk":21.1,"intensity":86.5,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint upward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the upward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same upward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has broad support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+54.9","detail":"Joint upward confirmation","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+51.5","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+67.0","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+50.2","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"94/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"62.3","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"4.3%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"13.2","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"93%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend references are aligned 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leadership","title":"Strength versus the research benchmark","description":"Relative performance is separated from absolute price direction to reveal leadership and lagging pressure.","reason":"Selected because benchmark-relative leadership is strengthening, fading or diverging from price.","series":[{"label":"Relative 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pressure and cumulative balance","description":"Observed activity is compared with its normal backdrop while cumulative balance tracks directional participation.","reason":"Selected because participation is confirming or diverging from the latest price path.","series":[{"label":"Activity versus 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