{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"SBUL Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"f8d41fe4-9e55-4177-9df6-8f995167c2d6","symbol":"SBUL","name":"Ninepoint Silver Bullion Fund Series ETF","exchange":"TOR","country":"CA","asset_type":"etf","currency":"CAD","sector":null,"industry":null},"summary":"The completed price path and its progression through the positioning zones can be described, but there is not enough usable Market Dynamics history to confirm or challenge the technical state.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Drawdown and recovery pressure, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Range pressure and compression, Range position and boundary pressure, Directional strength and control."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":35,"displayedObservations":35,"assetType":"ETF","state":"Rotational","stateTone":"caution","summary":"The completed price path and its progression through the positioning zones can be described, but there is not enough usable Market Dynamics history to confirm or challenge the technical state.","evidenceAlignment":{"status":"Evidence developing","headline":"Price structure is visible; Market Dynamics is not yet established","summary":"The completed price path and its progression through the positioning zones can be described, but there is not enough usable Market Dynamics history to confirm or challenge the technical state.","take":"Treat movement through the zones as price-location context only. Reaching the upper zone shows extension, but without an established Market Dynamics read it does not by itself establish active distribution, divergence or reversal 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This describes price location only; it does not establish active distribution or a reversal.","tone":"neutral"},"chartSummary":"Price is in the distribution zone. The Market Dynamics bars show whether underlying support is keeping pace with that elevated price.","summary":"Across the displayed history, price has progressed from the lower accumulation area, through the middle range and into the upper positioning zone. This describes price location only; it does not establish active distribution or a reversal.","annotations":[{"label":"Current tape relationship","value":"Zone progression","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero.","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Price location","value":"Upper positioning zone","detail":"Price is in the area labelled as the distribution zone on the chart. With limited Market Dynamics history, the label describes location and extension only.","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Latest positioning marker","value":"None in view","detail":"Entering the lower zone alone does not create a positioning confirmation.","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Market Dynamics confirmation","value":"Unavailable","detail":"Too little usable Market Dynamics history is available for a directional confirmation read.","tone":"neutral"}],"relationshipEvidence":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-14","observations":27,"relationship":{"sameWeekCorrelation":0.39,"forwardCorrelation":-0.28,"directionalAgreement":33.3,"sample":3,"correlationSample":26,"label":"Meaningful 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Reaching the upper zone shows extension, but without an established Market Dynamics read it does not by itself establish active distribution, divergence or reversal risk.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"negative","direction":"strengthening","zone":"distribution","zoneContext":"Across the displayed history, price has progressed from the lower accumulation area, through the middle range and into the upper positioning zone. This describes price location only; it does not establish active distribution or a reversal.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","sample":0},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics improved this week but remains below zero."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has no clear direction","detail":"Price remains rotational while the Market Dynamics condition develops."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"The current relationship is visible, but this ticker does not yet have a completed comparable outcome.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Position management","title":"Separate downside warning from short execution","tone":"negative","finding":"Across 1 completed distribution cycles, the average gross downside opportunity was 11.8%, while the average adverse move was 0.0%.","approach":"Use distribution to reduce or hedge first. A short entry needs confirmed weakness because price can continue rising while distribution persists.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[],"reversal_warnings":[],"reversal_dangers":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[35.17,37.35,37.77,42.09,47.2,53.13,42.35,40.11,39.59,43.73,48.43,43.12,42.94,35.36,36.8,38.38,39.99,42.15,39.33,38.81,41.77,39.74,39.49,39.4,35.9,35.56,35.1,31.71,33.68,32.06,29.7,30.0,30.63,32.82,34.34],"consensus":[95.2604,67.8754,-62.2048,49.3956,76.5451,82.0667,0.0,-30.6992,-27.0422,30.0337,71.9918,-21.3923,0.0,-72.2213,-20.0731,-11.6197,10.9374,39.0162,-25.2284,0.0,36.5041,-31.1915,-17.2211,-16.2742,-59.8264,-31.9224,-21.3489,-39.2499,0.0,-42.6886,-68.2443,-43.7894,-26.0986,23.0535,34.2954],"supportDates":["2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[null,null,null,null,null,93.241,0.0,-21.4617,-19.604,44.664,73.5079,-29.6892,0.0,-66.0182,-14.0975,-0.8333,24.0594,42.597,-40.4885,0.0,42.4557,-28.9725,-27.5,-28.6417,-62.7121,-28.0773,-6.8712,-28.112,0.0,-41.1845,-69.4007,-51.6841,-19.3851,25.5913,35.5521],"force":[95.2604,67.8754,-62.2048,49.3956,43.9179,56.5269,0.0,-65.8226,-29.5162,47.3592,74.8116,-73.866,0.0,-88.798,-25.8129,-9.8556,32.3929,47.969,-34.6848,0.0,52.6653,-53.0724,-13.6238,-10.9853,-68.0987,-12.2077,-0.9917,-22.7114,0.0,-24.1993,-71.0614,-14.5526,-5.8386,69.8773,49.9673],"direction":[null,null,null,null,99.8502,87.5389,0.0,-16.1681,-33.7758,0.938,68.2451,-25.5711,0.0,-67.4701,-59.678,-41.1914,19.3846,28.529,-1.0337,0.0,18.1585,-18.0981,-8.0433,-5.9177,-50.6196,-50.3987,-52.4357,-63.7922,0.0,-57.6142,-64.9106,-55.6503,-56.5834,13.2924,21.6651],"intensity":[null,null,null,null,100.0,80.0,100.0,100.0,25.0,44.4444,80.0,54.5455,33.3333,84.6154,35.7143,6.6667,6.25,17.6471,38.8889,26.3158,45.0,57.1429,72.7273,4.3478,50.0,56.0,7.6923,44.4444,17.8571,13.7931,36.6667,9.6774,9.375,33.3333,35.2941],"confirmation":[53.15,44.3868,42.5722,38.4732,68.3362,93.3127,34.3232,79.0349,76.8422,55.2492,91.1002,36.4401,27.7585,91.7105,33.2894,5.5339,30.7559,80.7035,53.4621,24.6675,80.0831,78.6819,73.2445,50.1914,87.3526,77.6729,29.0985,80.2257,31.3764,81.1198,89.9064,81.0013,54.0594,34.2678,55.0],"persistence":[null,null,33.3333,50.0,60.0,66.6667,57.1429,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,12.5,0.0,25.0,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,25.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,37.5],"assessmentRisk":[null,null,null,null,11.7272,8.9666,37.3026,2.2639,31.8018,62.9193,6.7383,37.894,30.0307,10.3872,38.9942,30.9403,32.3125,25.1166,38.5711,8.283,5.5375,14.3556,11.0518,18.0364,18.6942,29.4519,38.4146,30.3258,36.0284,25.7648,15.5697,14.9316,33.3914,8.9993,32.2981],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":34.3,"control":35.6,"force":50.0,"direction":21.7,"confirmation":55.0,"persistence":37.5,"assessmentRisk":32.3,"intensity":35.3,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Completed tape has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Completed tape","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+34.3","detail":"Completed tape has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+35.6","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+50.0","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+21.7","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"55/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Rotational","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"caution"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"51.7","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"7.3%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"13.8","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"25%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price is rotating through its trend references.","series":[{"label":"Close","values":[35.17,37.35,37.77,42.09,47.2,53.13,42.35,40.11,39.59,43.73,48.43,43.12,42.94,35.36,36.8,38.38,39.99,42.15,39.33,38.81,41.77,39.74,39.49,39.4,35.9,35.56,35.1,31.71,33.68,32.06,29.7,30.0,30.63,32.82,34.34],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.1},{"label":"Fast trend","values":[null,null,null,null,38.9202,41.5038,41.6577,41.3763,41.0515,41.5385,42.7915,42.8512,42.8674,41.5024,40.6474,40.2352,40.1906,40.5468,40.3256,40.05,40.3628,40.2495,40.1114,39.9821,39.2399,38.5708,37.9398,36.8071,36.2385,35.4788,34.4281,33.623,33.0788,33.0318,33.2696],"stroke":"#176fa3","width":1.7},{"label":"Slow trend","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,40.1337,39.7801,39.5594,39.472,39.5104,39.7059,39.678,39.6137,39.7735,39.771,39.7502,39.7242,39.441,39.1535,38.8532,38.3241,37.9801,37.5416,36.9607,36.4451,36.0144,35.7777,35.6712],"stroke":"#07865c","width":1.8},{"label":"Upper envelope","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,51.8361,52.6939,52.3207,51.972,51.839,51.5096,51.1241,50.7747,50.5594,50.2546,49.9712,49.8563,49.7999,49.7562,49.6826,49.0499,46.3095,46.2324,46.7056,46.8147,46.4928,45.0504,44.6223,43.9431,43.9556,43.8653],"stroke":"#98a9b8","width":1.0,"dash":[6,5]},{"label":"Lower envelope","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,31.8619,32.2007,32.6859,33.1018,32.2096,31.8424,31.8159,31.9912,32.2917,32.3759,32.4088,33.1837,33.4791,33.6948,33.4994,33.0021,33.9855,33.3376,32.0244,31.3243,30.4792,30.0486,29.1647,28.6129,28.3464,28.1907],"stroke":"#98a9b8","width":1.0,"dash":[6,5]}],"guides":[],"dates":["2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"]},{"key":"drawdown","eyebrow":"Path risk","title":"Drawdown and recovery pressure","description":"Capital impairment and recovery are shown together so return is not separated from path difficulty.","reason":"Selected because the current recovery or drawdown path is central to the tape.","series":[{"label":"Drawdown","values":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-20.2899,-24.5059,-25.4847,-17.6925,-8.8462,-18.8406,-19.1794,-33.4463,-30.7359,-27.7621,-24.7318,-20.6663,-25.974,-26.9528,-21.3815,-25.2023,-25.6729,-25.8423,-32.4299,-33.0698,-33.9356,-40.3162,-36.6083,-39.6574,-44.0994,-43.5347,-42.349,-38.227,-35.3661],"stroke":"#c13f3f","width":1.9,"fill":"rgba(193,63,63,.10)"},{"label":"Recovery","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,14.0461,12.5675,24.3389,37.7026,22.6045,22.0927,0.5402,4.6346,9.1271,13.7049,19.8465,11.8283,10.3497,18.766,12.994,12.2832,12.0273,2.0756,1.1089,0.0,0.0,6.2126,1.1038,0.0,1.0101,3.1313,10.505,15.6229],"stroke":"#07865c","width":1.7}],"guides":[{"label":"Prior high","values":[0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0],"stroke":"#8fa0af","width":1.0,"dash":[6,5]}],"dates":["2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"]},{"key":"participation","eyebrow":"Participation","title":"Activity pressure and cumulative balance","description":"Observed activity is compared with its normal backdrop while cumulative balance tracks directional participation.","reason":"Selected because participation is confirming or diverging from the latest price path.","series":[{"label":"Activity versus norm","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,166.6871,51.0577,45.2292,67.1341,113.9082,30.8282,82.9313,211.4982,26.2835,91.7831,34.0513,35.3443,36.5251,36.0717,73.4477,14.6279,14.8848,46.0464,0.0,10.6855,12.6976,14.0271,0.0,100.9373,16.4677,50.9054,106.126,49.8089],"stroke":"#1678a7","width":1.8},{"label":"Cumulative balance","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,115.4116,112.0297,114.8537,118.912,111.938,110.1534,105.4149,118.5451,120.1004,125.5039,127.4337,125.5001,123.5664,125.4809,121.4647,120.6851,119.9208,117.6166,117.6166,117.2344,116.8523,117.2535,117.2535,114.5786,114.9607,116.1262,118.4267,119.1986],"stroke":"#07865c","width":1.7}],"guides":[{"label":"Typical activity","values":[100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0],"stroke":"#8fa0af","width":1.0,"dash":[6,5]}],"dates":["2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"]},{"key":"volatility","eyebrow":"Risk geometry","title":"Range pressure and compression","description":"Movement pressure and envelope width show whether risk is expanding, settling or compressed.","reason":"Selected because current variability is unusually compressed or expanded versus this ticker's own tape.","series":[{"label":"Range pressure","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,null,12.5692,11.7349,10.9841,10.2051,9.4565,9.9392,9.7523,9.1288,9.9037,9.3341,8.7035,9.5661,9.036,8.6532,9.678,8.8789,9.0222,9.6471,8.9613,8.4322,7.8254,7.2818],"stroke":"#c13f3f","width":1.9},{"label":"Envelope 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value.","reason":"Selected because price is testing an observed boundary or moving rapidly through its recent range.","series":[{"label":"Range position","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,23.9071,22.1311,36.2705,52.3224,34.1872,33.5724,7.6844,12.6025,17.9986,23.4973,30.8743,21.2432,19.4672,29.5765,22.6434,21.7896,21.4822,9.5287,8.3675,1.0515,0.2925,6.6948,1.43,0.4568,1.3703,5.5527,16.8123,24.6273],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.0},{"label":"From high","values":[null,null,null,null,null,null,null,-35.7108,-36.5443,-29.9086,-22.3754,-30.8864,-31.1749,-43.3242,-41.0162,-38.4837,-35.9032,-32.4411,-36.961,-37.7945,-33.0502,-36.3039,-36.7046,-36.8488,-42.4587,-43.0037,-43.741,-49.1745,-46.017,-48.6136,-52.3962,-51.9154,-37.4898,-33.0204,-29.9184],"stroke":"#c13f3f","width":1.5},{"label":"From 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