{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"BLX Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"f9ebe6ea-8911-494c-bd96-8fdc2e1fcb0a","symbol":"BLX","name":"Beacon Lighting Group Limited","exchange":"ASX","country":"AU","asset_type":"equity","currency":"AUD","sector":"Consumer Cyclical","industry":"Specialty Retail"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":17,"completedEpisodes":16,"activeEpisodes":1,"medianExpectedMove":10.3,"averageExpectedMove":17.0,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":7.5,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":16,"expectedCount":8,"expectedPercent":50.0,"averageReturn":0.6,"medianReturn":-1.1,"confidenceLow":28.0,"confidenceHigh":72.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":16,"expectedCount":9,"expectedPercent":56.2,"averageReturn":8.4,"medianReturn":8.8,"confidenceLow":33.2,"confidenceHigh":76.9,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":16,"expectedCount":10,"expectedPercent":62.5,"averageReturn":11.0,"medianReturn":4.0,"confidenceLow":38.6,"confidenceHigh":81.5,"confidence":"Mixed historical 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elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":3,"completedEpisodes":3,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":13.8,"averageExpectedMove":14.6,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":9.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":3,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-4.2,"medianReturn":-3.3,"confidenceLow":43.9,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":3,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-12.3,"medianReturn":-8.0,"confidenceLow":43.9,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":3,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":-26.5,"medianReturn":-24.1,"confidenceLow":43.9,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-1.4,"sample":3},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-3.2,"sample":3},{"week":3,"averageReturn":-2.5,"sample":3},{"week":4,"averageReturn":-4.2,"sample":3},{"week":5,"averageReturn":-6.3,"sample":3},{"week":6,"averageReturn":-4.9,"sample":3},{"week":7,"averageReturn":-8.0,"sample":3},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-7.8,"sample":3},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-5.7,"sample":3},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-11.3,"sample":3},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-9.5,"sample":3},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-12.3,"sample":3},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-15.3,"sample":3},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-17.8,"sample":3},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-18.5,"sample":3},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-18.6,"sample":3},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-18.0,"sample":3},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-18.9,"sample":3},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-20.3,"sample":3},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-20.9,"sample":3},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-23.3,"sample":3},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-24.6,"sample":3},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-23.8,"sample":3},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-23.8,"sample":3},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-25.0,"sample":3},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-26.5,"sample":3}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"caution","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":56.2,"averageReturn":8.4,"sample":16},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 56.2% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of 8.4% across 16 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 4 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.6 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 17.0% across 16 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 7.5 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-06-19","price":1.72}],"distribution_rollovers":[{"date":"2025-07-25","price":3.448524},{"date":"2025-08-15","price":3.419463}],"price_pressure_gaps":[{"date":"2025-06-06","price":3.555079},{"date":"2025-07-18","price":3.535705},{"date":"2025-08-08","price":3.555079}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[2.5186,2.5469,2.497,2.8032,2.7267,2.7075,2.7075,2.8702,2.8702,2.8893,2.8319,2.9084,2.851,2.6788,2.8223,2.7745,2.9563,2.918,2.9658,2.985,2.8702,2.9084,2.9276,3.0424,3.2337,3.3007,3.2529,3.3007,3.2257,3.1482,3.2451,3.1967,3.0514,3.1482,3.1482,3.342,3.1482,3.2935,3.1967,3.2451,3.4388,3.5551,3.6326,3.4291,3.4679,3.4776,3.3129,3.5357,3.4485,3.3904,3.5551,3.4195,3.4873,3.3517,3.3013,3.1739,3.2327,3.0466,3.2523,3.2523,2.978,2.8898,2.7331,2.7429,2.6841,2.7135,2.88,2.7919,2.6645,2.6253,2.7429,2.7723,2.6547,2.6841,2.6253,2.449,2.351,2.5666,2.4,2.1747,1.94,1.84,1.71,1.63,1.535,1.74,1.7,1.625,1.53,1.72,1.65,1.595,1.56,1.48,1.59,1.72,1.725,1.625,1.7,1.74,1.645,1.6,1.76,1.745],"consensus":[52.993,33.8476,0.0,62.8765,22.0649,25.206,13.7327,48.4143,30.8364,35.3904,0.0,32.7726,0.0,-30.585,31.3589,-14.3929,44.3746,8.5744,28.9064,34.854,-14.7298,13.1261,0.0,34.6375,57.7357,50.9999,24.3474,33.9085,0.0,-9.8826,29.7038,0.0,-26.2474,23.2406,0.0,37.4283,-20.5909,28.3115,0.0,15.7975,50.1435,42.9996,44.138,-9.7823,21.3442,8.967,-26.7816,36.8874,0.0,-18.6535,30.6578,-22.3661,20.8634,-21.4336,-28.496,-38.551,0.0,-55.1806,17.6105,0.0,-55.0492,-43.6503,-61.1555,-28.8126,-41.2418,-24.6323,21.423,-24.2689,-40.6042,-31.5987,0.0,0.0,-33.6669,0.0,-25.9887,-62.4686,-49.295,13.9665,-55.1348,-60.5818,-73.195,-62.1675,-70.4489,-63.7563,-67.2096,0.0,-42.1366,-52.5563,-50.8166,19.139,-35.3945,-32.5917,-23.2117,-53.2939,-13.4763,18.9877,10.1593,-18.7212,27.5639,18.985,-21.7142,-21.0743,40.4598,7.97],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[25.2082,-17.7271,-24.6554,-27.3249,0.0,-56.8383,28.3814,0.0,-58.6949,-47.4136,-63.3517,-19.6156,-37.7336,-21.0923,19.2518,-29.6218,-52.1256,-35.9159,0.0,0.0,-46.0585,0.0,-26.1062,-58.4911,-48.9631,25.3577,-49.3506,-54.9515,-74.0458,-67.5175,-68.4698,-66.0305,-66.8546,0.0,-50.4978,-62.5601,-63.5238,21.5448,-42.2803,-39.7413,-32.625,-60.1121,-15.8322,15.4904,0.502,-39.8705,31.5067,18.1636,-24.6344,-27.1944,46.0188,5.5331],"force":[30.6757,-39.5113,-33.0447,-55.9361,0.0,-63.0808,44.8085,0.0,-61.2977,-34.3405,-59.5808,-2.1141,-26.8562,-1.4802,63.0902,-23.2839,-33.623,-14.5424,0.0,0.0,-27.158,0.0,-17.4827,-84.4061,-43.6661,49.9022,-80.2136,-79.0134,-87.4085,-49.2429,-77.6338,-53.5298,-65.2686,0.0,-32.008,-54.4019,-44.413,76.897,-30.3155,-24.1165,-6.5778,-50.084,-2.9434,25.3334,6.41,-20.5256,32.1865,21.1064,-31.9365,-24.5747,48.1079,2.4648],"direction":[8.889,-12.7568,-29.6361,-38.963,0.0,-47.643,14.1263,0.0,-46.4194,-45.9994,-59.7704,-58.3938,-55.5267,-47.3299,5.8579,-18.8549,-32.4236,-38.8477,0.0,0.0,-24.1543,0.0,-31.9301,-51.3446,-53.6951,24.7204,-43.8318,-53.8511,-62.0701,-65.2851,-67.5787,-68.4618,-69.0019,0.0,-39.8158,-39.8051,-40.868,24.8661,-31.153,-30.4742,-24.335,-47.7945,-22.5122,18.4518,23.8743,-6.7384,19.7558,18.4084,-11.0752,-11.5796,28.6438,18.2085],"intensity":[55.7692,67.3077,71.1538,100.0,46.1538,71.1538,90.3846,46.1538,98.0769,98.0769,50.0,59.6154,26.9231,11.5385,55.7692,17.3077,46.1538,38.4615,40.3846,9.6154,40.3846,7.6923,13.4615,65.3846,40.3846,92.3077,61.5385,100.0,92.3077,65.3846,46.1538,25.0,25.0,82.6923,75.0,7.6923,28.8462,71.1538,65.3846,7.6923,19.2308,15.3846,38.4615,38.4615,1.9231,26.9231,9.6154,25.0,26.9231,3.8462,63.4615,21.1538],"confirmation":[74.9091,75.4662,77.3159,81.0372,5.3993,85.8733,31.9804,1.0784,85.7506,81.627,87.4883,53.8798,80.8124,52.7896,54.7413,75.6545,80.605,77.526,30.5114,2.4452,78.3862,26.0217,76.0554,88.7191,83.6079,33.3312,86.4956,88.0337,91.8426,87.4182,90.7928,88.0557,89.4533,37.1893,81.0476,84.7218,83.8725,35.8195,79.0665,78.0621,52.1107,84.8523,49.7374,74.3227,25.9505,52.4943,76.9012,74.1524,75.2156,74.7572,81.0955,25.462],"persistence":[12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,50.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,62.5,50.0,50.0,37.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,50.0,62.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,75.0,75.0,87.5,87.5,87.5,87.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,75.0,75.0,50.0,25.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,12.5],"assessmentRisk":[3.6382,3.8087,34.0636,28.8202,45.5148,21.6889,25.7189,27.7851,20.3506,19.5195,19.3727,35.568,28.5948,32.796,29.7533,29.9649,12.8971,14.0169,41.302,7.7116,12.5135,30.7024,29.8273,18.6612,25.1765,45.4557,20.0071,18.7038,13.2342,18.9151,14.7733,18.1129,16.3224,34.4446,17.3613,24.4208,23.51,16.2698,0.9942,4.4508,24.3631,22.4458,18.6393,31.3474,40.6111,53.1508,27.6355,1.0979,23.623,2.8095,9.666,1.0339],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":8.0,"control":5.5,"force":2.5,"direction":18.2,"confirmation":25.5,"persistence":12.5,"assessmentRisk":1.0,"intensity":21.2,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","headline":"The gauges support the upward view","summary":"The completed evidence gives the upward view the clearer support.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has the stronger support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Control support is limited","controlPath":"Control support is easing","forceState":"Commitment is limited","forcePath":"Commitment is easing","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Limited support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Quiet"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+8.0","detail":"Market Dynamics has stronger support","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+5.5","detail":"Control support is limited","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+2.5","detail":"Commitment is 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