{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"BCFT Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-21","ticker":{"uuid":"fb51717c-acf8-46f8-af68-305fdec7c14b","symbol":"BCFT","name":"UBS(Irl)ETF-UBS C.S&P500 U.ETFR","exchange":"GER","country":"DE","asset_type":"etf","currency":"EUR","sector":null,"industry":null},"summary":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive. Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path. Price has moved below the distribution zone after Market Dynamics weakened.","sections":[{"name":"Executive technical read","description":"Completed-week price state, Market Dynamics alignment, current price and the principal technical KPIs."},{"name":"Market Dynamics","description":"The proprietary relationship between completed price, underlying support, positioning zones and confirmation."},{"name":"Ticker evidence record","description":"Current application, comparable historical conditions, zone outcomes and practical review conditions."},{"name":"Adaptive technical evidence","description":"Six condition-selected views: Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope, Activity pressure and cumulative balance, Directional strength and control, Range position and boundary pressure, Range pressure and compression, Acceleration, deceleration and rollover."},{"name":"SM Tape Intelligence","description":"Resolved consensus with Control, Force, Direction and Confirmation gauges against completed price."},{"name":"Research boundary","description":"Dated scope, interpretation limits, methodology version and source references."}],"research":{"available":true,"asOf":"2026-08-21","observations":55,"displayedObservations":55,"assetType":"ETF","state":"Aligned upward","stateTone":"positive","summary":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive. 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cautious, Market Dynamics positive","kind":"disagreement","expectedDirection":"higher","episodes":4,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":3,"medianExpectedMove":14.8,"averageExpectedMove":14.8,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":10.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":3,"expectedCount":3,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":3.6,"medianReturn":3.0,"confidenceLow":43.9,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":1,"expectedPercent":100.0,"averageReturn":13.7,"medianReturn":13.7,"confidenceLow":20.7,"confidenceHigh":100.0,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":0.9,"sample":4},{"week":2,"averageReturn":1.4,"sample":4},{"week":3,"averageReturn":2.1,"sample":4},{"week":4,"averageReturn":3.6,"sample":3},{"week":5,"averageReturn":2.8,"sample":3},{"week":6,"averageReturn":5.8,"sample":2},{"week":7,"averageReturn":7.4,"sample":2},{"week":8,"averageReturn":7.4,"sample":2},{"week":9,"averageReturn":14.2,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":14.8,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":14.7,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":13.7,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":15.6,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":14.5,"sample":1},{"week":15,"averageReturn":16.1,"sample":1},{"week":16,"averageReturn":17.0,"sample":1},{"week":17,"averageReturn":15.6,"sample":1},{"week":18,"averageReturn":15.8,"sample":1},{"week":19,"averageReturn":14.4,"sample":1},{"week":20,"averageReturn":18.8,"sample":1},{"week":21,"averageReturn":19.0,"sample":1},{"week":22,"averageReturn":16.5,"sample":1},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":1,"completedEpisodes":1,"activeEpisodes":0,"medianExpectedMove":0.6,"averageExpectedMove":0.6,"averageWeeksToLargestMove":4.0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":1,"expectedCount":0,"expectedPercent":0.0,"averageReturn":0.6,"medianReturn":0.6,"confidenceLow":0.0,"confidenceHigh":79.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":12,"sample":1,"expectedCount":0,"expectedPercent":0.0,"averageReturn":5.1,"medianReturn":5.1,"confidenceLow":0.0,"confidenceHigh":79.3,"confidence":"Mixed historical record"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":1},{"week":2,"averageReturn":1.6,"sample":1},{"week":3,"averageReturn":1.5,"sample":1},{"week":4,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":1},{"week":5,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":1},{"week":6,"averageReturn":1.3,"sample":1},{"week":7,"averageReturn":2.7,"sample":1},{"week":8,"averageReturn":3.5,"sample":1},{"week":9,"averageReturn":2.3,"sample":1},{"week":10,"averageReturn":2.5,"sample":1},{"week":11,"averageReturn":1.2,"sample":1},{"week":12,"averageReturn":5.1,"sample":1},{"week":13,"averageReturn":5.3,"sample":1},{"week":14,"averageReturn":3.1,"sample":1},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Rollover warning","tone":"negative","headline":"Price has moved below distribution as Market Dynamics weakened","use":"The upward trend may still be visible, but this transition increases downside risk. Further price weakness would confirm the rollover.","confirm":"Further price weakness with weak Market Dynamics would confirm the rollover.","invalidate":"A recovery in both price and Market Dynamics would remove the rollover warning.","level":"positive","direction":"weakening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Price has moved down through distribution conditions as Market Dynamics contracted. The completed tape now carries a stronger continuation-risk warning.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"lower","percent":0.0,"averageReturn":12.9,"sample":1},"nowContext":{"label":"Easier this week","detail":"Market Dynamics eased this week but remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Weakened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has contracted across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price has moved below distribution","detail":"Price left the upper zone as Market Dynamics weakened."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Divergence control","title":"Do not chase price while the underlying evidence lags","tone":"caution","approach":"Use the gap to review position size, protect gains and wait for either Market Dynamics to catch up or price to correct. The disagreement is a warning condition, not an automatic exit.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 0.0% of comparable cases moved lower after 12 weeks, with an average move of 12.9% across 1 cases.","watch":"A recovery in both price and Market Dynamics would remove the rollover warning."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 100.0% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 1 cases. Distinct visits lasted 1.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use unsupported price strength to tighten discipline","tone":"caution","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average pullback of 3.8% across 1 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 1.0 weeks on average.","approach":"Avoid adding simply because price is rising. Let improving Market Dynamics confirm the move, or let price reset before reassessing it.","watch":"The warning ends when Market Dynamics catches up or price gives way."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2026-04-17","price":116.230003}],"reversal_warnings":[{"date":"2026-05-15","price":123.110001}],"reversal_dangers":[{"date":"2026-08-21","price":126.945}]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"close":[121.9924,123.1861,105.585,105.44,105.3,107.5,108.025,108.255,109.84,109.085,108.45,129.9599,113.56,109.92,111.35,109.58,113.015,113.165,111.335,111.805,112.265,111.825,114.645,115.025,112.865,112.04,112.075,110.86,112.325,111.69,113.17,111.84,108.935,107.02,109.465,111.99,116.23,117.365,117.525,120.78,123.11,124.405,125.095,124.99,123.835,125.95,124.685,126.445,127.4,125.905,126.13,124.595,129.44,129.63,126.945],"consensus":[100.0,63.3986,-88.8389,-85.3143,-69.0552,-14.9643,0.0,-17.5305,15.7666,-33.8761,-31.114,82.0143,-14.6302,-48.3727,0.0,-48.6803,31.6102,20.9274,-32.8245,13.0062,10.9775,-21.2817,53.5367,33.9819,-11.0147,-8.785,0.0,-39.174,24.2125,-17.4202,29.1096,-8.5593,-53.8718,-61.0754,14.7972,32.1903,69.8246,62.0,40.412,75.5279,73.3098,71.5555,52.4084,31.7662,36.6575,48.0625,29.9114,56.0629,56.8271,0.0,31.2843,-24.4577,71.6574,33.5701,18.3108],"supportDates":["2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14","2026-08-21"],"control":[null,null,-7.4891,0.0,-31.1349,8.8381,-51.8044,-39.1479,67.0004,-15.9552,-52.4737,0.0,-37.1687,33.7794,23.7577,-39.0408,12.2197,21.6829,-24.5743,51.7444,34.9597,-9.1211,-9.7606,0.0,-33.5446,25.621,-19.2633,31.1344,-4.1623,-57.8953,-57.9952,23.8103,37.4264,66.9273,62.543,37.4555,79.7674,69.9404,73.6576,47.4267,17.6491,47.0718,49.7025,41.8873,68.481,64.2396,0.0,27.6163,-15.6266,75.427,25.2175,21.4258],"force":[-85.3143,-25.8164,-40.1467,0.0,-17.1877,66.2943,-17.9561,-11.5311,99.9981,-50.2146,-74.9,0.0,-60.0339,72.6256,22.3874,-55.945,24.586,14.8005,-31.1528,81.7594,27.5137,-37.6712,-13.8967,0.0,-58.7495,60.3684,-27.3871,42.9855,-30.2953,-63.0752,-78.2707,69.2594,54.1741,95.6241,64.9929,17.8891,80.4172,82.762,67.7298,32.0746,0.0863,1.363,28.8694,1.9537,36.5009,34.7968,0.0,17.1248,-74.8372,91.3715,13.1515,75.0445],"direction":[null,-99.94,-79.9902,0.0,-26.7814,12.4063,-24.7579,-35.9201,86.3276,-12.3017,-24.7378,0.0,-53.7267,0.1655,16.65,-9.2056,5.6339,3.9879,-10.4678,35.4259,37.4847,-5.8616,-4.0189,0.0,-31.625,3.2229,-8.1946,16.8843,-1.9414,-42.6996,-52.3132,34.4052,10.5036,54.7076,59.2416,59.8786,67.1903,70.4088,71.8858,72.6259,70.5286,51.9128,59.8975,38.9854,55.8436,64.0916,0.0,45.5903,-1.435,53.2678,57.7006,25.7733],"intensity":[null,25.0,60.0,16.6667,42.8571,62.5,66.6667,70.0,100.0,75.0,69.2308,28.5714,60.0,68.75,58.8235,55.5556,15.7895,45.0,14.2857,72.7273,8.6957,70.8333,12.0,23.0769,25.9259,39.2857,3.4483,43.3333,32.2581,81.25,75.7576,76.4706,77.1429,88.8889,89.1892,21.0526,79.4872,77.5,26.8293,69.0476,2.3256,59.0909,71.1111,45.6522,61.7021,16.6667,38.7755,8.0,54.902,92.3077,82.6923,80.7692],"confirmation":[49.9672,65.4544,13.6134,8.7214,30.6778,32.0041,78.082,77.2372,95.0214,31.037,84.2252,4.621,84.0991,56.7009,74.6981,79.1137,49.8602,49.6503,75.0608,86.0192,78.6622,50.9498,48.2855,25.0593,81.218,54.8493,73.8501,77.7071,26.5492,85.4581,88.1151,36.264,78.8911,91.1743,87.9229,80.2905,92.2533,91.7985,90.7491,84.2269,54.7482,56.0371,82.7701,54.1682,85.1547,85.4003,10.7431,77.6354,55.1359,91.4737,78.2474,43.706],"persistence":[0.0,20.0,33.3333,28.5714,37.5,37.5,62.5,62.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,25.0,50.0,25.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,37.5,37.5,37.5,25.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,50.0,75.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,100.0,87.5,87.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,37.5],"assessmentRisk":[null,14.1279,41.0936,18.0768,29.354,23.5975,30.3085,19.4188,8.4251,26.249,28.8107,14.2517,25.1823,19.3489,9.5006,16.3147,7.5807,10.3525,2.003,6.5201,2.7805,11.7881,9.9935,42.1452,29.8442,28.5991,4.621,18.9823,36.118,21.9547,19.2124,56.0244,11.6845,15.0011,18.9972,29.7683,12.2143,13.2229,14.1186,23.744,32.5976,0.9895,12.1528,27.5029,8.3757,20.6347,1.0764,22.8844,29.6012,4.9547,31.9168,29.4083],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":18.3,"control":21.4,"force":75.0,"direction":25.8,"confirmation":43.7,"persistence":37.5,"assessmentRisk":29.4,"intensity":80.8,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint upward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the upward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same upward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has broad support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Broadly stable","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Qualified support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+18.3","detail":"Joint upward confirmation","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+21.4","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+75.0","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+25.8","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"44/100","detail":"Qualified support","tone":"neutral"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"61.0","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"2.0%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"32.5","detail":"Directional","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Range position","value":"85%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend references are aligned upward.","series":[{"label":"Close","values":[121.9924,123.1861,105.585,105.44,105.3,107.5,108.025,108.255,109.84,109.085,108.45,129.9599,113.56,109.92,111.35,109.58,113.015,113.165,111.335,111.805,112.265,111.825,114.645,115.025,112.865,112.04,112.075,110.86,112.325,111.69,113.17,111.84,108.935,107.02,109.465,111.99,116.23,117.365,117.525,120.78,123.11,124.405,125.095,124.99,123.835,125.95,124.685,126.445,127.4,125.905,126.13,124.595,129.44,129.63,126.945],"stroke":"#10243b","width":2.1},{"label":"Fast trend","values":[null,null,null,null,114.617,113.323,112.3597,111.6134,111.291,110.8899,110.4463,113.9942,113.9152,113.1888,112.8545,112.2591,112.3966,112.5363,112.3179,112.2246,112.232,112.158,112.6102,113.0492,113.0157,112.8383,112.6995,112.3651,112.3578,112.2364,112.4061,112.3032,111.6908,110.8416,110.5913,110.8456,111.8246,112.8319,113.6852,114.9752,116.4542,117.8998,119.208,120.2593,120.9094,121.8259,122.3457,123.0911,123.8745,124.2437,124.5866,124.5882,125.4703,126.2266,126.3572],"stroke":"#176fa3","width":1.7},{"label":"Slow 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Market Dynamics construction and private inputs are not disclosed. Historical research is not a forecast or instruction to trade."}