{"schema_version":"1.0","name":"METSB Technical Research Pack","type":"technical_research_pack","method_version":"technical-research-pack-1","as_of":"2026-08-14","ticker":{"uuid":"fccad2da-9d0f-40e0-a6ff-ab6863805847","symbol":"METSB","name":"Metsä Board Oyj","exchange":"HEL","country":"FI","asset_type":"equity","currency":"EUR","sector":"Consumer Cyclical","industry":"Packaging & Containers"},"summary":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive. Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path. 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adverse"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"averageReturn":-0.2,"sample":19},{"week":2,"averageReturn":-1.6,"sample":19},{"week":3,"averageReturn":0.9,"sample":19},{"week":4,"averageReturn":1.2,"sample":19},{"week":5,"averageReturn":0.6,"sample":19},{"week":6,"averageReturn":1.1,"sample":19},{"week":7,"averageReturn":0.4,"sample":19},{"week":8,"averageReturn":-0.4,"sample":19},{"week":9,"averageReturn":-0.6,"sample":19},{"week":10,"averageReturn":-1.9,"sample":19},{"week":11,"averageReturn":-3.8,"sample":19},{"week":12,"averageReturn":-3.2,"sample":19},{"week":13,"averageReturn":-3.0,"sample":19},{"week":14,"averageReturn":-3.9,"sample":19},{"week":15,"averageReturn":-5.5,"sample":19},{"week":16,"averageReturn":-6.0,"sample":19},{"week":17,"averageReturn":-5.3,"sample":19},{"week":18,"averageReturn":-5.3,"sample":19},{"week":19,"averageReturn":-4.6,"sample":19},{"week":20,"averageReturn":-5.6,"sample":19},{"week":21,"averageReturn":-5.4,"sample":19},{"week":22,"averageReturn":-3.7,"sample":19},{"week":23,"averageReturn":-3.3,"sample":19},{"week":24,"averageReturn":-5.5,"sample":18},{"week":25,"averageReturn":-6.0,"sample":18},{"week":26,"averageReturn":-9.0,"sample":18}]}},"pricePressureGap":{"label":"Price elevated relative to Market Dynamics","kind":"structuralDivergence","expectedDirection":"lower","episodes":0,"completedEpisodes":0,"activeEpisodes":0,"horizons":[{"weeks":4,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":12,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"},{"weeks":26,"sample":0,"expectedCount":0,"confidence":"Not enough evidence"}],"path":[{"week":0,"sample":0},{"week":1,"sample":0},{"week":2,"sample":0},{"week":3,"sample":0},{"week":4,"sample":0},{"week":5,"sample":0},{"week":6,"sample":0},{"week":7,"sample":0},{"week":8,"sample":0},{"week":9,"sample":0},{"week":10,"sample":0},{"week":11,"sample":0},{"week":12,"sample":0},{"week":13,"sample":0},{"week":14,"sample":0},{"week":15,"sample":0},{"week":16,"sample":0},{"week":17,"sample":0},{"week":18,"sample":0},{"week":19,"sample":0},{"week":20,"sample":0},{"week":21,"sample":0},{"week":22,"sample":0},{"week":23,"sample":0},{"week":24,"sample":0},{"week":25,"sample":0},{"week":26,"sample":0}]},"currentApplication":{"status":"Underlying strength ahead of price","tone":"positive","headline":"Underlying strength is leading price","use":"A positive price response is needed before the early upside case is confirmed.","confirm":"Treat the gap as an early-upside opportunity watch. A continued positive price response would confirm that price is catching up with the stronger foundation.","invalidate":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially.","level":"positive","direction":"strengthening","zone":"middle","zoneContext":"Market Dynamics has strengthened across the recent completed path and remains strongly positive, while price has not advanced as far through its range. The gap is an early-upside watch; a positive price response is needed for confirmation.","historical":{"label":"Broad directional cases","weeks":12,"direction":"higher","percent":31.6,"averageReturn":-3.2,"sample":19},"nowContext":{"label":"Stronger this week","detail":"Market Dynamics strengthened this week and remains positive."},"fourWeekContext":{"label":"Strengthened over four weeks","detail":"Underlying support has strengthened across the recent completed path."},"priceContext":{"label":"Price is lagging the underlying strength","detail":"Market Dynamics has advanced further through its recent range than price. This is positive divergence and an early-upside watch, but price confirmation is still required."}},"strategyApproach":{"headline":"Strategy observations from this ticker's own record","summary":"The current reading identifies the setup. The observations below show how this ticker's completed history can guide positioning, confirmation and risk control without treating any one reading as a forecast.","observations":[{"eyebrow":"Early repair watch","title":"Prepare the case before price confirms the recovery","tone":"recovery","approach":"Use the improvement to move the ticker onto a watchlist or define an entry trigger. Commitment should rise only after price responds; fading Market Dynamics cancels the early case.","finding":"In this ticker's completed record, 31.6% of comparable cases moved higher after 12 weeks, with an average move of -3.2% across 19 cases.","watch":"Reassess the reading when either price structure or the Market Dynamics state changes materially."},{"eyebrow":"Zone positioning","title":"Use accumulation to prepare the long case, then wait for confirmation","tone":"positive","finding":"After accumulation, 66.7% of completed 12-week outcomes were higher across 6 cases. Distinct visits lasted 4.0 weeks on average before leaving the zone.","approach":"Build the thesis and entry conditions while price is in accumulation. Increase exposure only when price responds; location alone is not the entry.","watch":"A failed price response or renewed weakness removes the reason to increase long exposure."},{"eyebrow":"Disagreement playbook","title":"Use improving Market Dynamics to prepare, not anticipate","tone":"recovery","finding":"Comparable disagreements produced an average recovery of 9.0% across 19 completed cases, with the largest move arriving after 5.7 weeks on average.","approach":"Define the price level that would confirm the repair. Until that response occurs, keep the idea at watchlist or starter-position size.","watch":"The early repair fails if Market Dynamics fades before price responds."}]},"summary":"This record compares the ticker's completed price path with its published Market Dynamics history."},"events":{"positioning_recoveries":[{"date":"2025-10-24","price":3.03},{"date":"2025-12-19","price":2.938},{"date":"2026-02-06","price":2.97},{"date":"2026-08-07","price":3.34}],"distribution_rollovers":[],"price_pressure_gaps":[]}},"smTape":{"available":true,"dates":["2024-08-23","2024-08-30","2024-09-06","2024-09-13","2024-09-20","2024-09-27","2024-10-04","2024-10-11","2024-10-18","2024-10-25","2024-11-01","2024-11-08","2024-11-15","2024-11-22","2024-11-29","2024-12-06","2024-12-13","2024-12-20","2024-12-27","2025-01-03","2025-01-10","2025-01-17","2025-01-24","2025-01-31","2025-02-07","2025-02-14","2025-02-21","2025-02-28","2025-03-07","2025-03-14","2025-03-21","2025-03-28","2025-04-04","2025-04-11","2025-04-18","2025-04-25","2025-05-02","2025-05-09","2025-05-16","2025-05-23","2025-05-30","2025-06-06","2025-06-13","2025-06-20","2025-06-27","2025-07-04","2025-07-11","2025-07-18","2025-07-25","2025-08-01","2025-08-08","2025-08-15","2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"close":[6.0593,6.1526,5.9415,5.9611,6.0495,6.1968,6.2164,6.1035,5.6665,5.2197,4.7944,4.6019,4.5332,4.3073,4.1286,4.3427,4.0657,4.0245,4.1423,4.2445,4.1148,4.3505,4.7139,4.7296,4.3034,4.2739,4.0029,3.8654,3.9852,3.8359,3.694,3.532,3.13,3.13,3.158,3.278,3.172,3.28,3.444,3.244,3.256,3.132,3.076,3.192,3.206,3.262,3.202,3.124,3.416,3.03,3.272,3.22,3.48,3.134,3.172,3.082,3.014,2.982,3.046,2.7,2.612,3.03,2.942,2.876,2.846,2.804,2.98,2.98,2.94,2.938,2.958,3.18,3.202,2.892,2.89,2.618,2.97,3.22,3.08,3.146,2.866,2.82,2.674,2.936,2.98,3.03,2.946,2.794,2.846,2.952,2.834,2.904,2.908,2.878,2.788,2.83,2.748,2.766,2.69,2.744,2.796,2.938,3.34,3.374],"consensus":[-34.9356,0.0,-49.7251,-23.2984,-9.2188,9.8785,0.0,-15.8385,-66.9204,-71.6718,-80.2256,-70.6877,-46.9121,-69.4842,-72.4741,0.0,-69.9817,-37.4305,-9.5083,-12.6989,-44.1252,21.9364,56.0057,32.386,-38.3875,-11.4124,-57.3435,-53.4653,-11.6203,-44.8115,-53.585,-59.5513,-74.0182,-36.0597,-36.8429,-12.4324,-41.2911,0.0,14.2626,-36.74,-17.1309,-42.0783,-38.8416,0.0,0.0,0.0,0.0,-26.6655,48.3149,-52.5667,33.933,0.0,46.4326,-36.7693,0.0,-28.6905,-37.7588,-27.7173,0.0,-68.823,-49.2458,39.7336,-24.1942,-12.2459,-12.9588,-21.5174,28.7027,8.7334,0.0,0.0,8.3757,56.9227,32.6446,-45.671,0.0,-65.6712,31.7488,58.2197,0.0,36.9918,-43.714,-26.86,-54.2674,25.3792,12.7473,23.2307,0.0,-38.9039,0.0,10.357,-28.3376,17.1842,0.0,-8.1964,-16.2057,0.0,-27.4093,0.0,-34.3892,0.0,9.9949,37.5894,76.8194,34.6735],"supportDates":["2025-08-22","2025-08-29","2025-09-05","2025-09-12","2025-09-19","2025-09-26","2025-10-03","2025-10-10","2025-10-17","2025-10-24","2025-10-31","2025-11-07","2025-11-14","2025-11-21","2025-11-28","2025-12-05","2025-12-12","2025-12-19","2025-12-26","2026-01-02","2026-01-09","2026-01-16","2026-01-23","2026-01-30","2026-02-06","2026-02-13","2026-02-20","2026-02-27","2026-03-06","2026-03-13","2026-03-20","2026-03-27","2026-04-03","2026-04-10","2026-04-17","2026-04-24","2026-05-01","2026-05-08","2026-05-15","2026-05-22","2026-05-29","2026-06-05","2026-06-12","2026-06-19","2026-06-26","2026-07-03","2026-07-10","2026-07-17","2026-07-24","2026-07-31","2026-08-07","2026-08-14"],"control":[47.964,-47.8396,0.0,-32.0892,-37.3055,-30.9892,0.0,-69.8681,-51.4807,39.5191,-27.1028,-22.6117,-28.3684,-17.7089,32.7041,4.8083,0.0,0.0,11.9516,59.6924,27.7204,-48.0654,0.0,-67.3072,39.2067,54.088,0.0,33.4534,-46.9103,-22.2421,-58.5601,32.9132,10.317,20.3535,0.0,-43.5327,0.0,12.4481,-31.5917,17.2109,0.0,-7.2548,-17.493,0.0,-27.3072,0.0,-41.3285,0.0,8.7798,28.9084,76.1998,21.6943],"force":[64.0561,-68.8165,0.0,-34.5272,-42.3605,-22.3034,0.0,-93.8767,-40.5678,87.9131,-33.667,-11.9013,-7.4933,-14.6572,48.573,5.5462,0.0,0.0,9.45,67.3647,17.8863,-85.9113,0.0,-84.2231,75.882,80.3584,0.0,37.2371,-70.2892,-21.8708,-57.8481,65.6638,13.1643,23.9675,0.0,-47.9542,0.0,22.7953,-36.8318,28.7912,0.0,-7.5753,-9.9624,0.0,-23.0294,0.0,-25.9838,0.0,23.4654,58.6665,98.36,15.4173],"direction":[32.0942,-1.2266,0.0,-20.6371,-34.9898,-27.8452,0.0,-49.7331,-52.8902,5.5649,-14.1036,-0.6453,-0.7483,-30.7701,9.9367,15.4958,0.0,0.0,3.5217,46.2988,48.8138,-14.1915,0.0,-50.5503,8.2984,47.1282,0.0,40.8604,-21.0788,-35.7014,-46.8037,12.0057,15.2269,25.9925,0.0,-27.1492,0.0,0.9174,-18.5514,8.8628,0.0,-9.7161,-19.194,0.0,-30.6546,0.0,-32.4624,0.0,1.7619,32.4555,62.1414,63.2614],"intensity":[75.0,82.6923,53.8462,5.7692,5.7692,7.6923,3.8462,80.7692,78.8462,94.2308,86.5385,15.3846,3.8462,17.3077,50.0,36.5385,11.5385,5.7692,1.9231,67.3077,25.0,84.6154,86.5385,76.9231,94.2308,98.0769,44.2308,13.4615,76.9231,61.5385,48.0769,73.0769,94.2308,9.6154,23.0769,50.0,51.9231,82.6923,57.6923,19.2308,28.8462,26.9231,30.7692,44.2308,53.8462,5.7692,23.0769,11.5385,36.5385,75.0,96.1538,96.1538],"confirmation":[83.3722,57.9075,24.8184,77.307,80.23,76.6547,3.8795,90.771,83.4601,59.5197,75.9865,49.0836,26.5717,74.7345,77.7295,25.424,23.9241,24.9162,47.9918,86.4913,78.0715,83.8046,2.9844,89.5553,35.828,87.368,29.8353,79.8988,82.7497,76.5135,85.4093,34.4621,72.1289,75.5001,26.8889,80.6545,28.4187,49.1905,77.2773,73.8523,1.612,25.2849,72.9759,24.8691,76.6391,27.6252,78.6426,5.4015,48.9608,80.8032,93.2481,86.7065],"persistence":[12.5,0.0,0.0,0.0,25.0,25.0,37.5,50.0,75.0,50.0,62.5,62.5,62.5,62.5,50.0,25.0,12.5,25.0,0.0,25.0,50.0,50.0,37.5,12.5,25.0,37.5,25.0,25.0,0.0,0.0,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,12.5,0.0,25.0,25.0,25.0,12.5,12.5,25.0,12.5,25.0,37.5,37.5,50.0,37.5,12.5,12.5,25.0],"assessmentRisk":[5.8211,42.1417,20.2171,15.5782,30.234,18.4786,25.8019,12.7447,22.9956,9.7225,10.7548,41.6247,47.8555,31.7413,3.2084,23.2743,24.2149,30.1777,10.8148,12.3144,31.2674,9.3967,24.4394,17.1333,59.6853,18.2458,39.1719,31.204,2.2308,34.8388,21.1244,50.277,18.8058,26.8395,45.234,11.774,33.6311,28.6315,19.4516,24.8847,22.1029,25.0294,11.1831,26.8727,34.5414,43.808,25.47,40.2204,25.0656,30.0144,11.5859,32.6599],"volumeParticipation":true,"latest":{"consensus":34.7,"control":21.7,"force":15.4,"direction":63.3,"confirmation":86.7,"persistence":25.0,"assessmentRisk":32.7,"intensity":96.2,"evidenceDepth":100},"analysis":{"status":"Joint upward confirmation","headline":"The gauges support the upward market view","summary":"Price structure and Market Dynamics agree. Control, force and direction support the same upward assessment.","take":"Current assessment: upward pressure has broad support.","tone":"positive","supportedView":"Price structure and Market Dynamics","direction":"upward","disagreement":false},"support":{"window":"Latest 12 months","controlState":"Buyer control supports the view","controlPath":"Control support is strengthening","forceState":"Upward commitment","forcePath":"Commitment is strengthening","directionState":"Upward follow-through","persistenceState":"Unsettled","confirmationState":"Strong support","riskState":"Contained","intensityState":"Elevated"},"cards":[{"label":"SM Consensus Gauge","value":"+34.7","detail":"Joint upward confirmation","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Control Gauge","value":"+21.7","detail":"Buyer control supports the view","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Force Gauge","value":"+15.4","detail":"Upward commitment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Direction Gauge","value":"+63.3","detail":"Upward follow-through","tone":"positive"},{"label":"SM Confirmation Gauge","value":"87/100","detail":"Strong support","tone":"positive"}]},"kpis":[{"label":"Price structure","value":"Aligned upward","detail":"completed-week alignment","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Momentum","value":"65.2","detail":"Positive","tone":"positive"},{"label":"Risk pressure","value":"6.4%","detail":"Contained","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Trend quality","value":"13.8","detail":"Range-led","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Range position","value":"79%","detail":"location inside observed range","tone":"neutral"},{"label":"Adaptive set","value":"6 views","detail":"selected for the current tape","tone":"neutral"}],"charts":[{"key":"price","eyebrow":"Price architecture","title":"Trend, acceptance and volatility envelope","description":"Price is shown against fast and slow trend references with its current volatility envelope.","reason":"Selected as the anchor because price and its trend references are aligned 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