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The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.3 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": 0.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.0, "probabilityDifference": 0.1}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 156765, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.2, "confidenceLow": 57.1, "expectedCount": 89897, "confidenceHigh": 57.6, "expectedPercent": 57.3}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 143712, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.5, "confidenceLow": 56.0, "expectedCount": 80896, "confidenceHigh": 56.5, "expectedPercent": 56.3}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 471162, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 56.1, "expectedCount": 264945, "confidenceHigh": 56.4, "expectedPercent": 56.2}, "horizons": [{"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 163890, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 53.7, "expectedCount": 88443, "confidenceHigh": 54.2, "expectedPercent": 54.0}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 148408, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.2, "confidenceLow": 53.4, "expectedCount": 79680, "confidenceHigh": 53.9, "expectedPercent": 53.7}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 488633, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 54.4, "expectedCount": 266650, "confidenceHigh": 54.7, "expectedPercent": 54.6}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.0, "probabilityDifference": 0.3}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 156765, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.2, "confidenceLow": 57.1, "expectedCount": 89897, "confidenceHigh": 57.6, "expectedPercent": 57.3}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 143712, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.5, "confidenceLow": 56.0, "expectedCount": 80896, "confidenceHigh": 56.5, "expectedPercent": 56.3}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 471162, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 56.1, "expectedCount": 264945, "confidenceHigh": 56.4, "expectedPercent": 56.2}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.6, "probabilityDifference": 1.0}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 148372, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.8, "confidenceLow": 60.4, "expectedCount": 90060, "confidenceHigh": 60.9, "expectedPercent": 60.7}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 133728, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.9, "confidenceLow": 55.9, "expectedCount": 75131, "confidenceHigh": 56.4, "expectedPercent": 56.2}, "state": "supports", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 439049, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.9, "confidenceLow": 57.2, "expectedCount": 251951, "confidenceHigh": 57.5, "expectedPercent": 57.4}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 1.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 3.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 2.9, "probabilityDifference": 4.5}], "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use agreement to distinguish supported trends from moves that lack confirmation.", "role": "Conditional research angle", "avoid": "Do not confuse alignment with certainty; an aligned market can still reverse.", "label": "Horizon-specific", "state": "selective", "confirm": "Check that the advantage remains visible beyond the shortest horizon and repeats across completed years.", "headline": "Agreement improves conviction at the horizons where it persists", "observed": "At 26 weeks, price and market dynamics positive was followed by a higher price in 60.7% of cases: +4.5 points versus price and market dynamics negative and +3.3 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +1.9 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 2 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 2, "supportingHorizons": 1}, "returnDifference": -0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.6, "probabilityDifference": 1.0}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 146358, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.9, "confidenceLow": 57.4, "expectedCount": 84451, "confidenceHigh": 58.0, "expectedPercent": 57.7}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 141595, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.0, "confidenceLow": 55.1, "expectedCount": 78411, "confidenceHigh": 55.6, "expectedPercent": 55.4}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 471162, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 56.1, "expectedCount": 264945, "confidenceHigh": 56.4, "expectedPercent": 56.2}, "horizons": [{"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 153818, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.1, "confidenceLow": 54.5, "expectedCount": 84244, "confidenceHigh": 55.0, "expectedPercent": 54.8}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 146287, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.2, "confidenceLow": 54.1, "expectedCount": 79506, "confidenceHigh": 54.6, "expectedPercent": 54.3}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 488633, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 54.4, "expectedCount": 266650, "confidenceHigh": 54.7, "expectedPercent": 54.6}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.2, "probabilityDifference": 0.5}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 146358, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.9, "confidenceLow": 57.4, "expectedCount": 84451, "confidenceHigh": 58.0, "expectedPercent": 57.7}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 141595, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.0, "confidenceLow": 55.1, "expectedCount": 78411, "confidenceHigh": 55.6, "expectedPercent": 55.4}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 471162, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 56.1, "expectedCount": 264945, "confidenceHigh": 56.4, "expectedPercent": 56.2}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 0.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.3, "probabilityDifference": 2.3}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 138136, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.5, "confidenceLow": 60.0, "expectedCount": 83304, "confidenceHigh": 60.6, "expectedPercent": 60.3}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 131629, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.3, "confidenceLow": 56.3, "expectedCount": 74502, "confidenceHigh": 56.9, "expectedPercent": 56.6}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 439049, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.9, "confidenceLow": 57.2, "expectedCount": 251951, "confidenceHigh": 57.5, "expectedPercent": 57.4}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 3.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 3.6, "probabilityDifference": 3.7}], "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use disagreement to identify prices that may be early or late relative to the underlying market behaviour.", "role": "Primary research filter", "avoid": "Do not assume every divergence must close, or that it must close immediately.", "label": "Strong and persistent", "state": "strong", "confirm": "Wait for price to begin resolving toward Market Dynamics, or for a separate signal to confirm the change.", "headline": "Market Dynamics leading price is an early-change watchlist angle", "observed": "At 26 weeks, market dynamics stronger than price was followed by a higher price in 60.3% of cases: +3.7 points versus price stronger than market dynamics and +2.9 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +3.2 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 3 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 3, "supportingHorizons": 2}, "returnDifference": 0.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.3, "probabilityDifference": 2.3}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 24982, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.5, "confidenceLow": 49.3, "expectedCount": 12463, "confidenceHigh": 50.5, "expectedPercent": 49.9}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 65013, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.3, "confidenceLow": 61.4, "expectedCount": 40141, "confidenceHigh": 62.1, "expectedPercent": 61.7}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 471162, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 56.1, "expectedCount": 264945, "confidenceHigh": 56.4, "expectedPercent": 56.2}, "horizons": [{"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 25714, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.1, "confidenceLow": 49.1, "expectedCount": 12774, "confidenceHigh": 50.3, "expectedPercent": 49.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 67768, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.2, "confidenceLow": 57.3, "expectedCount": 39061, "confidenceHigh": 58.0, "expectedPercent": 57.6}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 488633, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 54.4, "expectedCount": 266650, "confidenceHigh": 54.7, "expectedPercent": 54.6}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -4.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.2, "probabilityDifference": -7.9}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 24982, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.5, "confidenceLow": 49.3, "expectedCount": 12463, "confidenceHigh": 50.5, "expectedPercent": 49.9}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 65013, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.3, "confidenceLow": 61.4, "expectedCount": 40141, "confidenceHigh": 62.1, "expectedPercent": 61.7}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 471162, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 56.1, "expectedCount": 264945, "confidenceHigh": 56.4, "expectedPercent": 56.2}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -0.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -6.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.1, "probabilityDifference": -11.8}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 23525, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 3.9, "confidenceLow": 47.9, "expectedCount": 11426, "confidenceHigh": 49.2, "expectedPercent": 48.6}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 59885, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.2, "confidenceLow": 63.4, "expectedCount": 38218, "confidenceHigh": 64.2, "expectedPercent": 63.8}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 439049, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.9, "confidenceLow": 57.2, "expectedCount": 251951, "confidenceHigh": 57.5, "expectedPercent": 57.4}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -2.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -8.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.0, "probabilityDifference": -15.2}], "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use accumulation and distribution to frame price location, patience, risk and the quality of a later signal.", "role": "Context and risk control", "avoid": "Do not buy solely because price is in accumulation or sell solely because it is in distribution.", "label": "No standalone edge", "state": "none", "confirm": "Look for a completed move out of the zone and a compatible Market Dynamics signal before treating location as timing.", "headline": "The zones describe location and risk, not a stand-alone reversal trigger", "observed": "At 4 weeks, accumulation was followed by a higher price in 49.7% of cases: -7.9 points versus distribution and -4.9 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was -0.1 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -6.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.1, "probabilityDifference": -11.8}], "buySignalCaseStudy": {"title": "First valid Market Dynamics signal", "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 2.9, "directionalEdgePoints": 8.2}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 15782, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.8, "confidenceLow": 62.1, "expectedCount": 9916, "confidenceHigh": 63.6, "baselinePercent": 54.6, "expectedPercent": 62.8, "baselineAverageReturn": 0.9}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 7.0, "directionalEdgePoints": 13.5}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 15232, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.6, "confidenceLow": 68.9, "expectedCount": 10613, "confidenceHigh": 70.4, "baselinePercent": 56.2, "expectedPercent": 69.7, "baselineAverageReturn": 2.6}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 13.5, "directionalEdgePoints": 21.9}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 14197, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 18.4, "confidenceLow": 78.7, "expectedCount": 11262, "confidenceHigh": 80.0, "baselinePercent": 57.4, "expectedPercent": 79.3, "baselineAverageReturn": 4.9}], "expectedDirection": "higher"}, "positioningOutcomes": {"accumulation": {"use": "Long positioning", "label": "Accumulation to distribution", "cycles": 5489, "thresholds": [{"reached": 4669, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 84.1, "confidenceHigh": 86.0, "cyclesObserved": 5489, "reachedPercent": 85.1, "medianWeeksToReach": 4, "averageWeeksToReach": 13.6, "completedReachedPercent": 90.7}, {"reached": 4231, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 76.0, "confidenceHigh": 78.2, "cyclesObserved": 5489, "reachedPercent": 77.1, "medianWeeksToReach": 6, "averageWeeksToReach": 19.8, "completedReachedPercent": 84.0}, {"reached": 3432, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 61.2, "confidenceHigh": 63.8, "cyclesObserved": 5489, "reachedPercent": 62.5, "medianWeeksToReach": 14.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 29.2, "completedReachedPercent": 70.9}, {"reached": 2790, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 49.5, "confidenceHigh": 52.2, "cyclesObserved": 5489, "reachedPercent": 50.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 22.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 36.4, "completedReachedPercent": 59.9}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Completed cycles experienced an average adverse move of 22.5% before resolution. Position size and confirmation still matter.", "timing": "The condition lasted 8.4 weeks on average before price left accumulation, while the best advance in completed cycles occurred after 68.1 weeks on average.", "finding": "77.1% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 6 weeks); 62.5% reached 20% (median 14 weeks).", "headline": "Accumulation has been most useful as a patient long-positioning window", "application": "Use accumulation to prepare a long case, then require price confirmation before increasing conviction. The condition is a positioning context rather than a stand-alone instruction to buy.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved higher 88.5% of the time across 191 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 2199, "repeatedCycles": 191, "completedCycles": 3290, "medianAdverseMove": 12.7, "medianCycleReturn": 36.5, "averageAdverseMove": 22.5, "averageCycleReturn": 54.1, "medianFavourableMove": 38.0, "averageFavourableMove": 59.1, "medianGrossOpportunity": 36.5, "averageGrossOpportunity": 54.1, "expectedDirectionPercent": 90.6, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 2.41, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 92.0, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 4.9, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 97.5, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 71.3, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 8.4, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 182, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 89.6, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 3099, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 62.0, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 68.1, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 91.6, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 88.5, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 83.2, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 92.3}, "distribution": {"use": "Downside risk and short positioning", "label": "Distribution to accumulation", "cycles": 9578, "thresholds": [{"reached": 6434, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 66.2, "confidenceHigh": 68.1, "cyclesObserved": 9578, "reachedPercent": 67.2, "medianWeeksToReach": 6.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 21.4, "completedReachedPercent": 90.4}, {"reached": 5081, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 52.0, "confidenceHigh": 54.0, "cyclesObserved": 9578, "reachedPercent": 53.0, "medianWeeksToReach": 14, "averageWeeksToReach": 30.0, "completedReachedPercent": 82.5}, {"reached": 3356, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 34.1, "confidenceHigh": 36.0, "cyclesObserved": 9578, "reachedPercent": 35.0, "medianWeeksToReach": 24.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 38.1, "completedReachedPercent": 64.1}, {"reached": 2059, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 20.7, "confidenceHigh": 22.3, "cyclesObserved": 9578, "reachedPercent": 21.5, "medianWeeksToReach": 29, "averageWeeksToReach": 40.4, "completedReachedPercent": 43.0}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Price rose by 63.6% on average before completed downside cycles resolved. That adverse path makes unconfirmed or unbounded short positioning unsuitable.", "timing": "Price left distribution after 6.4 weeks on average, but the deepest reversal in completed cycles occurred after 60.2 weeks on average.", "finding": "53.0% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 14 weeks); 35.0% reached 20% (median 24 weeks).", "headline": "Distribution has been a downside warning before it has been a short entry", "application": "Use distribution first to review long exposure, protect gains and watch for downward confirmation. A short case needs price weakness and defined risk; distribution alone is not enough.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved lower 96.6% of the time across 291 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 5906, "repeatedCycles": 291, "completedCycles": 3672, "medianAdverseMove": 20.6, "medianCycleReturn": -25.5, "averageAdverseMove": 63.6, "averageCycleReturn": -22.3, "medianFavourableMove": 26.3, "averageFavourableMove": 29.7, "medianGrossOpportunity": 25.5, "averageGrossOpportunity": 22.3, "expectedDirectionPercent": 89.4, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 0.35, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 71.0, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 7.4, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 87.6, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 39.4, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 6.4, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 275, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 88.3, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 3381, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 59.0, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 60.2, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 90.3, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 96.6, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 93.8, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 98.1}}}, "etf": {"label": "United States ETFs", "annual": [{"state": "mixed", "period": "2020", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 2871, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.7, "confidenceLow": 84.1, "expectedCount": 2454, "confidenceHigh": 86.7, "expectedPercent": 85.5}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 1252, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 10.8, "confidenceLow": 78.4, "expectedCount": 1010, "confidenceHigh": 82.8, "expectedPercent": 80.7}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 471, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.7, "confidenceLow": 62.7, "expectedCount": 316, "confidenceHigh": 71.2, "expectedPercent": 67.1}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -4.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 18.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 3.0, "probabilityDifference": 4.8}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 6962, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.7, "confidenceLow": 82.1, "expectedCount": 5778, "confidenceHigh": 83.9, "expectedPercent": 83.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 5803, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 12.5, "confidenceLow": 83.6, "expectedCount": 4907, "confidenceHigh": 85.5, "expectedPercent": 84.6}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 471, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.7, "confidenceLow": 62.7, "expectedCount": 316, "confidenceHigh": 71.2, "expectedPercent": 67.1}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -3.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 15.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 5.0, "probabilityDifference": -1.6}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 5704, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.1, "confidenceLow": 86.9, "expectedCount": 5007, "confidenceHigh": 88.6, "expectedPercent": 87.8}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 1614, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.4, "confidenceLow": 69.1, "expectedCount": 1151, "confidenceHigh": 73.5, "expectedPercent": 71.3}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 471, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.7, "confidenceLow": 62.7, "expectedCount": 316, "confidenceHigh": 71.2, "expectedPercent": 67.1}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 20.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 5.4, "probabilityDifference": 16.5}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 3891, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 14.7, "confidenceLow": 89.7, "expectedCount": 3529, "confidenceHigh": 91.6, "expectedPercent": 90.7}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 1697, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.7, "confidenceLow": 74.6, "expectedCount": 1301, "confidenceHigh": 78.6, "expectedPercent": 76.7}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 471, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.7, "confidenceLow": 62.7, "expectedCount": 316, "confidenceHigh": 71.2, "expectedPercent": 67.1}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 7.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 23.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 11.0, "probabilityDifference": 14.0}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 28, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -19.0, "confidenceLow": 2.0, "expectedCount": 2, "confidenceHigh": 22.6, "expectedPercent": 7.1}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 68, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.1, "confidenceLow": 76.7, "expectedCount": 59, "confidenceHigh": 92.9, "expectedPercent": 86.8}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 471, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.7, "confidenceLow": 62.7, "expectedCount": 316, "confidenceHigh": 71.2, "expectedPercent": 67.1}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -27.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -60.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -22.7, "probabilityDifference": -79.7}], "supports": 1, "doesNotSupport": 2}, {"state": "doesNotSupport", "period": "2021", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 3372, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -1.5, "confidenceLow": 42.4, "expectedCount": 1486, 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"right": {"sample": 30813, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.4, "confidenceLow": 69.0, "expectedCount": 21409, "confidenceHigh": 70.0, "expectedPercent": 69.5}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 184944, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 64.7, "expectedCount": 120100, "confidenceHigh": 65.2, "expectedPercent": 64.9}, "horizons": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 33314, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 61.3, "expectedCount": 20606, "confidenceHigh": 62.4, "expectedPercent": 61.9}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 31523, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.4, "confidenceLow": 63.3, "expectedCount": 20110, "confidenceHigh": 64.3, "expectedPercent": 63.8}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 192926, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.8, "confidenceLow": 61.3, "expectedCount": 118610, "confidenceHigh": 61.7, "expectedPercent": 61.5}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -0.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.2, "probabilityDifference": -1.9}, {"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 32247, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.0, "confidenceLow": 63.4, "expectedCount": 20616, "confidenceHigh": 64.5, "expectedPercent": 63.9}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 30813, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.4, "confidenceLow": 69.0, "expectedCount": 21409, "confidenceHigh": 70.0, "expectedPercent": 69.5}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 184944, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 64.7, "expectedCount": 120100, "confidenceHigh": 65.2, "expectedPercent": 64.9}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -1.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.3, "probabilityDifference": -5.6}, {"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 29684, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.9, "confidenceLow": 68.1, "expectedCount": 20372, "confidenceHigh": 69.2, "expectedPercent": 68.6}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 27877, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.2, "confidenceLow": 73.1, "expectedCount": 20525, "confidenceHigh": 74.1, "expectedPercent": 73.6}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 170681, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.4, "confidenceLow": 68.5, "expectedCount": 117277, "confidenceHigh": 68.9, "expectedPercent": 68.7}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -1.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.5, "probabilityDifference": -5.0}], "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use the state to describe the current backdrop and to rank otherwise similar setups.", "role": "Context and risk control", "avoid": "Do not assume that a positive state must lead to a rise or that a negative state must lead to a fall.", "label": "No standalone edge", "state": "none", "confirm": "Require a change in Market Dynamics, confirmation from price, or a separate qualifying signal before treating the state as actionable.", "headline": "The sign describes the backdrop, not a directional trigger", "observed": "At 4 weeks, positive state was followed by a higher price in 61.9% of cases: -1.9 points versus negative state and +0.4 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was -0.4 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -1.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.3, "probabilityDifference": -5.6}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 101859, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 64.4, "expectedCount": 65897, "confidenceHigh": 65.0, "expectedPercent": 64.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 100087, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 64.7, "expectedCount": 65046, "confidenceHigh": 65.3, "expectedPercent": 65.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 184944, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 64.7, "expectedCount": 120100, "confidenceHigh": 65.2, "expectedPercent": 64.9}, "horizons": [{"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 106003, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.1, "confidenceLow": 62.5, "expectedCount": 66525, "confidenceHigh": 63.0, "expectedPercent": 62.8}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 105540, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.8, "confidenceLow": 59.6, "expectedCount": 63165, "confidenceHigh": 60.1, "expectedPercent": 59.8}, "state": "supports", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 192926, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.8, "confidenceLow": 61.3, "expectedCount": 118610, "confidenceHigh": 61.7, "expectedPercent": 61.5}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.3, "probabilityDifference": 3.0}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 101859, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 64.4, "expectedCount": 65897, "confidenceHigh": 65.0, "expectedPercent": 64.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 100087, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 64.7, "expectedCount": 65046, "confidenceHigh": 65.3, "expectedPercent": 65.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 184944, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 64.7, "expectedCount": 120100, "confidenceHigh": 65.2, "expectedPercent": 64.9}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.3, "probabilityDifference": -0.3}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 95318, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.6, "confidenceLow": 68.9, "expectedCount": 65999, "confidenceHigh": 69.5, "expectedPercent": 69.2}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 94558, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.5, "confidenceLow": 68.9, "expectedCount": 65416, "confidenceHigh": 69.5, "expectedPercent": 69.2}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 170681, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.4, "confidenceLow": 68.5, "expectedCount": 117277, "confidenceHigh": 68.9, "expectedPercent": 68.7}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.2, "probabilityDifference": 0.0}], "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use strengthening or weakening to judge whether an existing price move is gaining or losing support.", "role": "Conditional research angle", "avoid": "Do not act on a one-period change without checking whether the price structure agrees.", "label": "Horizon-specific", "state": "selective", "confirm": "Look for persistence in the change and a compatible response from price before increasing conviction.", "headline": "Improvement in Market Dynamics adds a useful timing tilt", "observed": "At 4 weeks, strengthening was followed by a higher price in 62.8% of cases: +3.0 points versus weakening and +1.3 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.3 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 1}, "returnDifference": -0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.3, "probabilityDifference": -0.3}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 62038, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.7, "confidenceLow": 66.4, "expectedCount": 41417, "confidenceHigh": 67.1, "expectedPercent": 66.8}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 52837, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.5, "confidenceLow": 62.7, "expectedCount": 33353, "confidenceHigh": 63.5, "expectedPercent": 63.1}, "state": "supports", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 184944, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 64.7, "expectedCount": 120100, "confidenceHigh": 65.2, "expectedPercent": 64.9}, "horizons": [{"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 65682, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.7, "confidenceLow": 60.3, "expectedCount": 39838, "confidenceHigh": 61.0, "expectedPercent": 60.7}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 55066, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.8, "confidenceLow": 57.5, "expectedCount": 31867, "confidenceHigh": 58.3, "expectedPercent": 57.9}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 192926, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.8, "confidenceLow": 61.3, "expectedCount": 118610, "confidenceHigh": 61.7, "expectedPercent": 61.5}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.1, "probabilityDifference": 2.8}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 62038, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.7, "confidenceLow": 66.4, "expectedCount": 41417, "confidenceHigh": 67.1, "expectedPercent": 66.8}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 52837, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.5, "confidenceLow": 62.7, "expectedCount": 33353, "confidenceHigh": 63.5, "expectedPercent": 63.1}, "state": "supports", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 184944, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 64.7, "expectedCount": 120100, "confidenceHigh": 65.2, "expectedPercent": 64.9}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.4, "probabilityDifference": 3.7}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 58417, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.5, "confidenceLow": 71.7, "expectedCount": 42085, "confidenceHigh": 72.4, "expectedPercent": 72.0}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 48163, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.1, "confidenceLow": 64.5, "expectedCount": 31291, "confidenceHigh": 65.4, "expectedPercent": 65.0}, "state": "supports", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 170681, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.4, "confidenceLow": 68.5, "expectedCount": 117277, "confidenceHigh": 68.9, "expectedPercent": 68.7}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 2.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 3.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 2.1, "probabilityDifference": 7.0}], "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use agreement to distinguish supported trends from moves that lack confirmation.", "role": "Conditional research angle", "avoid": "Do not confuse alignment with certainty; an aligned market can still reverse.", "label": "Horizon-specific", "state": "selective", "confirm": "Check that the advantage remains visible beyond the shortest horizon and repeats across completed years.", "headline": "Agreement improves conviction at the horizons where it persists", "observed": "At 26 weeks, price and market dynamics positive was followed by a higher price in 72.0% of cases: +7.0 points versus price and market dynamics negative and +3.3 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +2.4 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 2 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 2, "supportingHorizons": 2}, "returnDifference": 0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.4, "probabilityDifference": 3.7}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 54708, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.5, "confidenceLow": 67.1, "expectedCount": 36909, "confidenceHigh": 67.9, "expectedPercent": 67.5}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 55079, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.0, "confidenceLow": 61.3, "expectedCount": 34004, "confidenceHigh": 62.1, "expectedPercent": 61.7}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 184944, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 64.7, "expectedCount": 120100, "confidenceHigh": 65.2, "expectedPercent": 64.9}, "horizons": [{"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 59044, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 62.1, "expectedCount": 36886, "confidenceHigh": 62.9, "expectedPercent": 62.5}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 57239, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.1, "confidenceLow": 60.5, "expectedCount": 34836, "confidenceHigh": 61.3, "expectedPercent": 60.9}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 192926, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.8, "confidenceLow": 61.3, "expectedCount": 118610, "confidenceHigh": 61.7, "expectedPercent": 61.5}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.2, "probabilityDifference": 1.6}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 54708, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.5, "confidenceLow": 67.1, "expectedCount": 36909, "confidenceHigh": 67.9, "expectedPercent": 67.5}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 55079, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.0, "confidenceLow": 61.3, "expectedCount": 34004, "confidenceHigh": 62.1, "expectedPercent": 61.7}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 184944, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 64.7, "expectedCount": 120100, "confidenceHigh": 65.2, "expectedPercent": 64.9}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 1.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.2, "probabilityDifference": 5.8}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 51284, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.1, "confidenceLow": 71.7, "expectedCount": 36967, "confidenceHigh": 72.5, "expectedPercent": 72.1}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 50199, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.1, "confidenceLow": 65.4, "expectedCount": 33027, "confidenceHigh": 66.2, "expectedPercent": 65.8}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 170681, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.4, "confidenceLow": 68.5, "expectedCount": 117277, "confidenceHigh": 68.9, "expectedPercent": 68.7}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 3.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 3.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 2.7, "probabilityDifference": 6.3}], "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use disagreement to identify prices that may be early or late relative to the underlying market behaviour.", "role": "Primary research filter", "avoid": "Do not assume every divergence must close, or that it must close immediately.", "label": "Strong and persistent", "state": "strong", "confirm": "Wait for price to begin resolving toward Market Dynamics, or for a separate signal to confirm the change.", "headline": "Market Dynamics leading price is an early-change watchlist angle", "observed": "At 26 weeks, market dynamics stronger than price was followed by a higher price in 72.1% of cases: +6.3 points versus price stronger than market dynamics and +3.4 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +3.0 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 4 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 4, "supportingHorizons": 2}, "returnDifference": 1.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.2, "probabilityDifference": 5.8}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 6606, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.0, "confidenceLow": 51.9, "expectedCount": 3506, "confidenceHigh": 54.3, "expectedPercent": 53.1}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 32794, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.8, "confidenceLow": 67.8, "expectedCount": 22385, "confidenceHigh": 68.8, "expectedPercent": 68.3}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 184944, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 64.7, "expectedCount": 120100, "confidenceHigh": 65.2, "expectedPercent": 64.9}, "horizons": [{"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 6754, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 50.3, "expectedCount": 3475, "confidenceHigh": 52.6, "expectedPercent": 51.5}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 34383, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 62.4, "expectedCount": 21621, "confidenceHigh": 63.4, "expectedPercent": 62.9}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 192926, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.8, "confidenceLow": 61.3, "expectedCount": 118610, "confidenceHigh": 61.7, "expectedPercent": 61.5}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": 0.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -10.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.1, "probabilityDifference": -11.4}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 6606, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.0, "confidenceLow": 51.9, "expectedCount": 3506, "confidenceHigh": 54.3, "expectedPercent": 53.1}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 32794, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.8, "confidenceLow": 67.8, "expectedCount": 22385, "confidenceHigh": 68.8, "expectedPercent": 68.3}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 184944, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 64.7, "expectedCount": 120100, "confidenceHigh": 65.2, "expectedPercent": 64.9}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -0.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -11.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.3, "probabilityDifference": -15.2}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 6388, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.7, "confidenceLow": 53.0, "expectedCount": 3461, "confidenceHigh": 55.4, "expectedPercent": 54.2}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 29552, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.4, "confidenceLow": 71.5, "expectedCount": 21296, "confidenceHigh": 72.6, "expectedPercent": 72.1}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 170681, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.4, "confidenceLow": 68.5, "expectedCount": 117277, "confidenceHigh": 68.9, "expectedPercent": 68.7}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -2.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -14.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.7, "probabilityDifference": -17.9}], "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use accumulation and distribution to frame price location, patience, risk and the quality of a later signal.", "role": "Context and risk control", "avoid": "Do not buy solely because price is in accumulation or sell solely because it is in distribution.", "label": "No standalone edge", "state": "none", "confirm": "Look for a completed move out of the zone and a compatible Market Dynamics signal before treating location as timing.", "headline": "The zones describe location and risk, not a stand-alone reversal trigger", "observed": "At 4 weeks, accumulation was followed by a higher price in 51.5% of cases: -11.4 points versus distribution and -10.0 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.0 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -11.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.3, "probabilityDifference": -15.2}], "buySignalCaseStudy": {"title": "First valid Market Dynamics signal", "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 1.6, "directionalEdgePoints": 9.2}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 6430, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.4, "confidenceLow": 69.5, "expectedCount": 4544, "confidenceHigh": 71.8, "baselinePercent": 61.5, "expectedPercent": 70.7, "baselineAverageReturn": 0.8}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 3.1, "directionalEdgePoints": 12.2}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 6353, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.4, "confidenceLow": 76.1, "expectedCount": 4900, "confidenceHigh": 78.1, "baselinePercent": 64.9, "expectedPercent": 77.1, "baselineAverageReturn": 2.3}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 6.6, "directionalEdgePoints": 19.3}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 6086, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 11.0, "confidenceLow": 87.1, "expectedCount": 5355, "confidenceHigh": 88.8, "baselinePercent": 68.7, "expectedPercent": 88.0, "baselineAverageReturn": 4.4}], "expectedDirection": "higher"}, "positioningOutcomes": {"accumulation": {"use": "Long positioning", "label": "Accumulation to distribution", "cycles": 1744, "thresholds": [{"reached": 1400, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 78.3, "confidenceHigh": 82.1, "cyclesObserved": 1744, "reachedPercent": 80.3, "medianWeeksToReach": 5.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 19.7, "completedReachedPercent": 84.2}, {"reached": 1177, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 65.3, "confidenceHigh": 69.6, "cyclesObserved": 1744, "reachedPercent": 67.5, "medianWeeksToReach": 8, "averageWeeksToReach": 29.0, "completedReachedPercent": 71.4}, {"reached": 825, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 45.0, "confidenceHigh": 49.7, "cyclesObserved": 1744, "reachedPercent": 47.3, "medianWeeksToReach": 19, "averageWeeksToReach": 38.2, "completedReachedPercent": 51.0}, {"reached": 568, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 30.4, "confidenceHigh": 34.8, "cyclesObserved": 1744, "reachedPercent": 32.6, "medianWeeksToReach": 38.5, "averageWeeksToReach": 48.0, "completedReachedPercent": 35.8}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Completed cycles experienced an average adverse move of 12.3% before resolution. Position size and confirmation still matter.", "timing": "The condition lasted 6.0 weeks on average before price left accumulation, while the best advance in completed cycles occurred after 70.2 weeks on average.", "finding": "67.5% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 8 weeks); 47.3% reached 20% (median 19 weeks).", "headline": "Accumulation has been most useful as a patient long-positioning window", "application": "Use accumulation to prepare a long case, then require price confirmation before increasing conviction. The condition is a positioning context rather than a stand-alone instruction to buy.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved higher 78.8% of the time across 66 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 337, "repeatedCycles": 66, "completedCycles": 1407, "medianAdverseMove": 8.0, "medianCycleReturn": 19.9, "averageAdverseMove": 12.3, "averageCycleReturn": 27.2, "medianFavourableMove": 20.7, "averageFavourableMove": 28.7, "medianGrossOpportunity": 19.9, "averageGrossOpportunity": 27.2, "expectedDirectionPercent": 91.9, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 2.21, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 90, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 1.5, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 92.4, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 41.9, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 6.0, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 62, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 90.4, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 1341, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 67, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 70.2, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 93.2, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 78.8, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 67.5, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 86.9}, "distribution": {"use": "Downside risk and short positioning", "label": "Distribution to accumulation", "cycles": 4520, "thresholds": [{"reached": 2324, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 50.0, "confidenceHigh": 52.9, "cyclesObserved": 4520, "reachedPercent": 51.4, "medianWeeksToReach": 16.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 30.3, "completedReachedPercent": 87.7}, {"reached": 1491, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 31.6, "confidenceHigh": 34.4, "cyclesObserved": 4520, "reachedPercent": 33.0, "medianWeeksToReach": 32, "averageWeeksToReach": 39.2, "completedReachedPercent": 72.9}, {"reached": 642, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 13.2, "confidenceHigh": 15.3, "cyclesObserved": 4520, "reachedPercent": 14.2, "medianWeeksToReach": 45.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 45.3, "completedReachedPercent": 40.7}, {"reached": 218, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 4.2, "confidenceHigh": 5.5, "cyclesObserved": 4520, "reachedPercent": 4.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 23.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 38.1, "completedReachedPercent": 15.1}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Price rose by 19.3% on average before completed downside cycles resolved. That adverse path makes unconfirmed or unbounded short positioning unsuitable.", "timing": "Price left distribution after 7.4 weeks on average, but the deepest reversal in completed cycles occurred after 58.4 weeks on average.", "finding": "33.0% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 32 weeks); 14.2% reached 20% (median 45 weeks).", "headline": "Distribution has been a downside warning before it has been a short entry", "application": "Use distribution first to review long exposure, protect gains and watch for downward confirmation. A short case needs price weakness and defined risk; distribution alone is not enough.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved lower 100.0% of the time across 50 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 3411, "repeatedCycles": 50, "completedCycles": 1109, "medianAdverseMove": 9.9, "medianCycleReturn": -17.5, "averageAdverseMove": 19.3, "averageCycleReturn": -17.9, "medianFavourableMove": 17.7, "averageFavourableMove": 19.3, "medianGrossOpportunity": 17.5, "averageGrossOpportunity": 17.9, "expectedDirectionPercent": 95.9, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 0.93, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 67, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 1.4, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 69.6, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 33.4, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 7.4, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 44, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 94.5, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 1059, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 61, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 58.4, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 96.9, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 100.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 92.9, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 100.0}}}, "equity": {"label": "United States equities", "annual": [{"state": "doesNotSupport", "period": "2020", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 5812, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 17.3, "confidenceLow": 65.2, "expectedCount": 3860, "confidenceHigh": 67.6, "expectedPercent": 66.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 3535, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 21.3, "confidenceLow": 67.8, "expectedCount": 2451, "confidenceHigh": 70.8, "expectedPercent": 69.3}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 4303, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 27.8, "confidenceLow": 68.1, "expectedCount": 2989, "confidenceHigh": 70.8, "expectedPercent": 69.5}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -4.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -10.5, "probabilityDifference": -2.9}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 14160, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 21.2, "confidenceLow": 71.3, "expectedCount": 10195, "confidenceHigh": 72.7, "expectedPercent": 72.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 13352, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 22.4, "confidenceLow": 74.7, "expectedCount": 10070, "confidenceHigh": 76.1, "expectedPercent": 75.4}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 4303, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 27.8, "confidenceLow": 68.1, "expectedCount": 2989, "confidenceHigh": 70.8, "expectedPercent": 69.5}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -1.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -6.6, "probabilityDifference": -3.4}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 9431, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 21.1, "confidenceLow": 71.4, "expectedCount": 6819, "confidenceHigh": 73.2, "expectedPercent": 72.3}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 5249, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 29.1, "confidenceLow": 73.9, "expectedCount": 3942, "confidenceHigh": 76.3, "expectedPercent": 75.1}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 4303, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 27.8, "confidenceLow": 68.1, "expectedCount": 2989, "confidenceHigh": 70.8, "expectedPercent": 69.5}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -8.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -6.7, "probabilityDifference": -2.8}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 7884, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 24.4, "confidenceLow": 76.2, "expectedCount": 6082, "confidenceHigh": 78.1, "expectedPercent": 77.1}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 4967, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 29.8, "confidenceLow": 71.9, "expectedCount": 3635, "confidenceHigh": 74.4, "expectedPercent": 73.2}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 4303, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 27.8, "confidenceLow": 68.1, "expectedCount": 2989, "confidenceHigh": 70.8, "expectedPercent": 69.5}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -5.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 7.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -3.4, "probabilityDifference": 3.9}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 241, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 37.8, "confidenceLow": 57.7, "expectedCount": 154, "confidenceHigh": 69.7, "expectedPercent": 63.9}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 675, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 23.4, "confidenceLow": 62.4, "expectedCount": 446, "confidenceHigh": 69.5, "expectedPercent": 66.1}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 4303, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 27.8, "confidenceLow": 68.1, "expectedCount": 2989, "confidenceHigh": 70.8, "expectedPercent": 69.5}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": 14.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -5.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 10.0, "probabilityDifference": -2.2}], "supports": 0, "doesNotSupport": 3}, {"state": "doesNotSupport", "period": "2021", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 5710, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -2.7, "confidenceLow": 42.3, "expectedCount": 2491, "confidenceHigh": 44.9, "expectedPercent": 43.6}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 7347, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.2, "confidenceLow": 46.7, "expectedCount": 3515, "confidenceHigh": 49.0, "expectedPercent": 47.8}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 44167, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 50.5, "expectedCount": 22532, "confidenceHigh": 51.5, "expectedPercent": 51.0}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -2.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -7.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -3.7, "probabilityDifference": -4.2}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 22913, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.7, "confidenceLow": 50.7, "expectedCount": 11758, "confidenceHigh": 52.0, "expectedPercent": 51.3}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 22922, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 50.9, "expectedCount": 11810, "confidenceHigh": 52.2, "expectedPercent": 51.5}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 44167, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 50.5, "expectedCount": 22532, "confidenceHigh": 51.5, "expectedPercent": 51.0}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.3, "probabilityDifference": -0.2}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 13130, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.2, "confidenceLow": 49.7, "expectedCount": 6638, "confidenceHigh": 51.4, "expectedPercent": 50.6}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 14118, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.7, "confidenceLow": 46.7, "expectedCount": 6711, "confidenceHigh": 48.4, "expectedPercent": 47.5}, "state": "supports", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 44167, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 50.5, "expectedCount": 22532, "confidenceHigh": 51.5, "expectedPercent": 51.0}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 1.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.2, "probabilityDifference": 3.1}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 13015, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.2, "confidenceLow": 52.0, "expectedCount": 6876, "confidenceHigh": 53.7, "expectedPercent": 52.8}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 13770, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -1.1, "confidenceLow": 46.0, "expectedCount": 6454, "confidenceHigh": 47.7, "expectedPercent": 46.9}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 44167, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 50.5, "expectedCount": 22532, "confidenceHigh": 51.5, "expectedPercent": 51.0}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 3.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.2, "probabilityDifference": 5.9}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 1421, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -9.1, "confidenceLow": 31.4, "expectedCount": 480, "confidenceHigh": 36.3, "expectedPercent": 33.8}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 9929, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.3, "confidenceLow": 55.9, "expectedCount": 5650, "confidenceHigh": 57.9, "expectedPercent": 56.9}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 44167, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 50.5, "expectedCount": 22532, "confidenceHigh": 51.5, "expectedPercent": 51.0}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -13.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -17.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -10.1, "probabilityDifference": -23.1}], "supports": 2, "doesNotSupport": 3}, {"state": "mixed", "period": "2022", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 8375, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -3.0, "confidenceLow": 40.2, "expectedCount": 3458, "confidenceHigh": 42.3, "expectedPercent": 41.3}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 7270, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.1, "confidenceLow": 47.0, "expectedCount": 3498, "confidenceHigh": 49.3, "expectedPercent": 48.1}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 48977, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -1.2, "confidenceLow": 44.1, "expectedCount": 21824, "confidenceHigh": 45.0, "expectedPercent": 44.6}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -4.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.8, "probabilityDifference": -6.8}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 24132, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -1.3, "confidenceLow": 43.8, "expectedCount": 10729, "confidenceHigh": 45.1, "expectedPercent": 44.5}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 24783, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -1.6, "confidenceLow": 43.7, "expectedCount": 10973, "confidenceHigh": 44.9, "expectedPercent": 44.3}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 48977, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -1.2, "confidenceLow": 44.1, "expectedCount": 21824, "confidenceHigh": 45.0, "expectedPercent": 44.6}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.1, "probabilityDifference": 0.2}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 13461, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -3.2, "confidenceLow": 40.2, "expectedCount": 5518, "confidenceHigh": 41.8, "expectedPercent": 41.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 16323, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.4, "confidenceLow": 44.5, "expectedCount": 7383, "confidenceHigh": 46.0, "expectedPercent": 45.2}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 48977, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -1.2, "confidenceLow": 44.1, "expectedCount": 21824, "confidenceHigh": 45.0, "expectedPercent": 44.6}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -2.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -2.0, "probabilityDifference": -4.2}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 14376, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -2.0, "confidenceLow": 42.8, "expectedCount": 6263, "confidenceHigh": 44.4, "expectedPercent": 43.6}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 14806, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -2.7, "confidenceLow": 40.7, "expectedCount": 6150, "confidenceHigh": 42.3, "expectedPercent": 41.5}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 48977, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -1.2, "confidenceLow": 44.1, "expectedCount": 21824, "confidenceHigh": 45.0, "expectedPercent": 44.6}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 0.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.8, "probabilityDifference": 2.1}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 4404, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.8, "confidenceLow": 44.3, "expectedCount": 2014, "confidenceHigh": 47.2, "expectedPercent": 45.7}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 3769, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -2.0, "confidenceLow": 40.5, "expectedCount": 1585, "confidenceHigh": 43.6, "expectedPercent": 42.1}, "state": "supports", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 48977, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -1.2, "confidenceLow": 44.1, "expectedCount": 21824, "confidenceHigh": 45.0, "expectedPercent": 44.6}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": 1.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.4, "probabilityDifference": 3.6}], "supports": 2, "doesNotSupport": 2}, {"state": "doesNotSupport", "period": "2023", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 8180, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 49.3, "expectedCount": 4122, "confidenceHigh": 51.5, "expectedPercent": 50.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 7699, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.5, "confidenceLow": 52.9, "expectedCount": 4160, "confidenceHigh": 55.1, "expectedPercent": 54.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 52466, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.0, "confidenceLow": 49.7, "expectedCount": 26290, "confidenceHigh": 50.5, "expectedPercent": 50.1}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -1.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.3, "probabilityDifference": -3.6}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 24550, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.2, "confidenceLow": 52.1, "expectedCount": 12943, "confidenceHigh": 53.3, "expectedPercent": 52.7}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 23285, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 47.9, "expectedCount": 11305, "confidenceHigh": 49.2, "expectedPercent": 48.6}, "state": "supports", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 52466, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.0, "confidenceLow": 49.7, "expectedCount": 26290, "confidenceHigh": 50.5, "expectedPercent": 50.1}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 1.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.2, "probabilityDifference": 4.1}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 16462, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.8, "confidenceLow": 46.1, "expectedCount": 7707, "confidenceHigh": 47.6, "expectedPercent": 46.8}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 14916, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.9, "confidenceLow": 54.1, "expectedCount": 8183, "confidenceHigh": 55.7, "expectedPercent": 54.9}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 52466, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.0, "confidenceLow": 49.7, "expectedCount": 26290, "confidenceHigh": 50.5, "expectedPercent": 50.1}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -3.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.2, "probabilityDifference": -8.1}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 14251, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.7, "confidenceLow": 43.1, "expectedCount": 6258, "confidenceHigh": 44.7, "expectedPercent": 43.9}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 15171, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.3, "confidenceLow": 54.6, "expectedCount": 8396, "confidenceHigh": 56.1, "expectedPercent": 55.3}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 52466, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.0, "confidenceLow": 49.7, "expectedCount": 26290, "confidenceHigh": 50.5, "expectedPercent": 50.1}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -5.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -6.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -2.7, "probabilityDifference": -11.4}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 3680, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.4, "confidenceLow": 51.5, "expectedCount": 1955, "confidenceHigh": 54.7, "expectedPercent": 53.1}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 3695, "confidence": "Historically consistent", 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negative state and +0.5 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.2 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.6, "probabilityDifference": -1.7}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 150793, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.3, "confidenceLow": 52.6, "expectedCount": 79726, "confidenceHigh": 53.1, "expectedPercent": 52.9}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 149715, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.1, "confidenceLow": 52.3, "expectedCount": 78678, "confidenceHigh": 52.8, "expectedPercent": 52.6}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 286218, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.8, "confidenceLow": 50.4, "expectedCount": 144845, "confidenceHigh": 50.8, "expectedPercent": 50.6}, "horizons": [{"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 155237, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 51.7, "expectedCount": 80604, "confidenceHigh": 52.2, "expectedPercent": 51.9}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 154487, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 50.5, "expectedCount": 78348, "confidenceHigh": 51.0, "expectedPercent": 50.7}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 295707, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.1, "confidenceLow": 49.9, "expectedCount": 148040, "confidenceHigh": 50.2, "expectedPercent": 50.1}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.6, "probabilityDifference": 1.2}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 150793, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.3, "confidenceLow": 52.6, "expectedCount": 79726, "confidenceHigh": 53.1, "expectedPercent": 52.9}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 149715, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.1, "confidenceLow": 52.3, "expectedCount": 78678, "confidenceHigh": 52.8, "expectedPercent": 52.6}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 286218, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.8, "confidenceLow": 50.4, "expectedCount": 144845, "confidenceHigh": 50.8, "expectedPercent": 50.6}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.5, "probabilityDifference": 0.3}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 143028, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.6, "confidenceLow": 53.2, "expectedCount": 76439, "confidenceHigh": 53.7, "expectedPercent": 53.4}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 142215, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.5, "confidenceLow": 52.9, "expectedCount": 75622, "confidenceHigh": 53.4, "expectedPercent": 53.2}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 268368, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 5.2, "confidenceLow": 50.0, "expectedCount": 134674, "confidenceHigh": 50.4, "expectedPercent": 50.2}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 3.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 3.4, "probabilityDifference": 0.2}], "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use strengthening or weakening to judge whether an existing price move is gaining or losing support.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not act on a one-period change without checking whether the price structure agrees.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Look for persistence in the change and a compatible response from price before increasing conviction.", "headline": "Strengthening and weakening are confirmation, not timing signals alone", "observed": "At 4 weeks, strengthening was followed by a higher price in 51.9% of cases: +1.2 points versus weakening and +1.8 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.4 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": 0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.5, "probabilityDifference": 0.3}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 94727, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.6, "confidenceLow": 50.9, "expectedCount": 48480, "confidenceHigh": 51.5, "expectedPercent": 51.2}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 90875, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.1, "confidenceLow": 52.0, "expectedCount": 47543, "confidenceHigh": 52.6, "expectedPercent": 52.3}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 286218, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.8, "confidenceLow": 50.4, "expectedCount": 144845, "confidenceHigh": 50.8, "expectedPercent": 50.6}, "horizons": [{"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 98208, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.1, "confidenceLow": 49.2, "expectedCount": 48605, "confidenceHigh": 49.8, "expectedPercent": 49.5}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 93342, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.4, "confidenceLow": 50.9, "expectedCount": 47813, "confidenceHigh": 51.5, "expectedPercent": 51.2}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 295707, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.1, "confidenceLow": 49.9, "expectedCount": 148040, "confidenceHigh": 50.2, "expectedPercent": 50.1}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.0, "probabilityDifference": -1.7}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 94727, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.6, "confidenceLow": 50.9, "expectedCount": 48480, "confidenceHigh": 51.5, "expectedPercent": 51.2}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 90875, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.1, "confidenceLow": 52.0, "expectedCount": 47543, "confidenceHigh": 52.6, "expectedPercent": 52.3}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 286218, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.8, "confidenceLow": 50.4, "expectedCount": 144845, "confidenceHigh": 50.8, "expectedPercent": 50.6}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.8, "probabilityDifference": -1.1}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 89955, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.7, "confidenceLow": 53.0, "expectedCount": 47975, "confidenceHigh": 53.7, "expectedPercent": 53.3}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 85565, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.9, "confidenceLow": 50.9, "expectedCount": 43840, "confidenceHigh": 51.6, "expectedPercent": 51.2}, "state": "supports", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 268368, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 5.2, "confidenceLow": 50.0, "expectedCount": 134674, "confidenceHigh": 50.4, "expectedPercent": 50.2}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 1.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 3.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 3.5, "probabilityDifference": 2.1}], "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use agreement to distinguish supported trends from moves that lack confirmation.", "role": "Conditional research angle", "avoid": "Do not confuse alignment with certainty; an aligned market can still reverse.", "label": "Horizon-specific", "state": "selective", "confirm": "Check that the advantage remains visible beyond the shortest horizon and repeats across completed years.", "headline": "Agreement improves conviction at the horizons where it persists", "observed": "At 26 weeks, price and market dynamics positive was followed by a higher price in 53.3% of cases: +2.1 points versus price and market dynamics negative and +3.1 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +1.8 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 1}, "returnDifference": -0.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.8, "probabilityDifference": -1.1}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 91650, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.1, "confidenceLow": 51.5, "expectedCount": 47542, "confidenceHigh": 52.2, "expectedPercent": 51.9}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 86516, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.6, "confidenceLow": 51.0, "expectedCount": 44407, "confidenceHigh": 51.7, "expectedPercent": 51.3}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 286218, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.8, "confidenceLow": 50.4, "expectedCount": 144845, "confidenceHigh": 50.8, "expectedPercent": 50.6}, "horizons": [{"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 94774, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.2, "confidenceLow": 49.7, "expectedCount": 47358, "confidenceHigh": 50.3, "expectedPercent": 50.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 89048, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.2, "confidenceLow": 49.8, "expectedCount": 44670, "confidenceHigh": 50.5, "expectedPercent": 50.2}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 295707, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.1, "confidenceLow": 49.9, "expectedCount": 148040, "confidenceHigh": 50.2, "expectedPercent": 50.1}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 0.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.1, "probabilityDifference": -0.2}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 91650, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.1, "confidenceLow": 51.5, "expectedCount": 47542, "confidenceHigh": 52.2, "expectedPercent": 51.9}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 86516, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.6, "confidenceLow": 51.0, "expectedCount": 44407, "confidenceHigh": 51.7, "expectedPercent": 51.3}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 286218, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.8, "confidenceLow": 50.4, "expectedCount": 144845, "confidenceHigh": 50.8, "expectedPercent": 50.6}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 0.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.3, "probabilityDifference": 0.6}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 86852, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.3, "confidenceLow": 53.0, "expectedCount": 46337, "confidenceHigh": 53.7, "expectedPercent": 53.4}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 81430, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.0, "confidenceLow": 50.6, "expectedCount": 41475, "confidenceHigh": 51.3, "expectedPercent": 50.9}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 268368, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 5.2, "confidenceLow": 50.0, "expectedCount": 134674, "confidenceHigh": 50.4, "expectedPercent": 50.2}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 3.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 3.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 4.1, "probabilityDifference": 2.5}], "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use disagreement to identify prices that may be early or late relative to the underlying market behaviour.", "role": "Conditional research angle", "avoid": "Do not assume every divergence must close, or that it must close immediately.", "label": "Horizon-specific", "state": "selective", "confirm": "Wait for price to begin resolving toward Market Dynamics, or for a separate signal to confirm the change.", "headline": "Market Dynamics leading price is an early-change watchlist angle", "observed": "At 26 weeks, market dynamics stronger than price was followed by a higher price in 53.4% of cases: +2.5 points versus price stronger than market dynamics and +3.2 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +3.3 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 2 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 2, "supportingHorizons": 1}, "returnDifference": 0.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.3, "probabilityDifference": 0.6}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 18376, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 48.0, "expectedCount": 8957, "confidenceHigh": 49.5, "expectedPercent": 48.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 32219, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.8, "confidenceLow": 54.6, "expectedCount": 17756, "confidenceHigh": 55.7, "expectedPercent": 55.1}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 286218, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.8, "confidenceLow": 50.4, "expectedCount": 144845, "confidenceHigh": 50.8, "expectedPercent": 50.6}, "horizons": [{"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 18960, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.1, "confidenceLow": 48.3, "expectedCount": 9299, "confidenceHigh": 49.8, "expectedPercent": 49.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 33385, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.5, "confidenceLow": 51.7, "expectedCount": 17440, "confidenceHigh": 52.8, "expectedPercent": 52.2}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 295707, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.1, "confidenceLow": 49.9, "expectedCount": 148040, "confidenceHigh": 50.2, "expectedPercent": 50.1}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -0.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.0, "probabilityDifference": -3.2}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 18376, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 48.0, "expectedCount": 8957, "confidenceHigh": 49.5, "expectedPercent": 48.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 32219, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.8, "confidenceLow": 54.6, "expectedCount": 17756, "confidenceHigh": 55.7, "expectedPercent": 55.1}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 286218, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.8, "confidenceLow": 50.4, "expectedCount": 144845, "confidenceHigh": 50.8, "expectedPercent": 50.6}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -1.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.2, "probabilityDifference": -6.4}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 17137, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 4.3, "confidenceLow": 45.7, "expectedCount": 7965, "confidenceHigh": 47.2, "expectedPercent": 46.5}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 30333, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.9, "confidenceLow": 55.2, "expectedCount": 16922, "confidenceHigh": 56.3, "expectedPercent": 55.8}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 268368, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 5.2, "confidenceLow": 50.0, "expectedCount": 134674, "confidenceHigh": 50.4, "expectedPercent": 50.2}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -2.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.9, "probabilityDifference": -9.3}], "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use accumulation and distribution to frame price location, patience, risk and the quality of a later signal.", "role": "Context and risk control", "avoid": "Do not buy solely because price is in accumulation or sell solely because it is in distribution.", "label": "No standalone edge", "state": "none", "confirm": "Look for a completed move out of the zone and a compatible Market Dynamics signal before treating location as timing.", "headline": "The zones describe location and risk, not a stand-alone reversal trigger", "observed": "At 4 weeks, accumulation was followed by a higher price in 49.0% of cases: -3.2 points versus distribution and -1.1 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was -0.4 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -1.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.2, "probabilityDifference": -6.4}], "buySignalCaseStudy": {"title": "First valid Market Dynamics signal", "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 3.6, "directionalEdgePoints": 7.3}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 9352, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.7, "confidenceLow": 56.4, "expectedCount": 5372, "confidenceHigh": 58.4, "baselinePercent": 50.1, "expectedPercent": 57.4, "baselineAverageReturn": 1.1}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 9.8, "directionalEdgePoints": 13.7}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 8879, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 12.6, "confidenceLow": 63.3, "expectedCount": 5713, "confidenceHigh": 65.3, "baselinePercent": 50.6, "expectedPercent": 64.3, "baselineAverageReturn": 2.8}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 18.7, "directionalEdgePoints": 22.6}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 8111, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 23.9, "confidenceLow": 71.8, "expectedCount": 5907, "confidenceHigh": 73.8, "baselinePercent": 50.2, "expectedPercent": 72.8, "baselineAverageReturn": 5.2}], "expectedDirection": "higher"}, "positioningOutcomes": {"accumulation": {"use": "Long positioning", "label": "Accumulation to distribution", "cycles": 3745, "thresholds": [{"reached": 3269, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 86.2, "confidenceHigh": 88.3, "cyclesObserved": 3745, "reachedPercent": 87.3, "medianWeeksToReach": 3, "averageWeeksToReach": 11.0, "completedReachedPercent": 95.5}, {"reached": 3054, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 80.3, "confidenceHigh": 82.8, "cyclesObserved": 3745, "reachedPercent": 81.5, "medianWeeksToReach": 6.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 16.2, "completedReachedPercent": 93.3}, {"reached": 2607, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 68.1, "confidenceHigh": 71.1, "cyclesObserved": 3745, "reachedPercent": 69.6, "medianWeeksToReach": 12, "averageWeeksToReach": 26.3, "completedReachedPercent": 85.8}, {"reached": 2222, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 57.8, "confidenceHigh": 60.9, "cyclesObserved": 3745, "reachedPercent": 59.3, "medianWeeksToReach": 19.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 33.4, "completedReachedPercent": 78.0}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Completed cycles experienced an average adverse move of 30.1% before resolution. Position size and confirmation still matter.", "timing": "The condition lasted 9.2 weeks on average before price left accumulation, while the best advance in completed cycles occurred after 66.5 weeks on average.", "finding": "81.5% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 6 weeks); 69.6% reached 20% (median 12 weeks).", "headline": "Accumulation has been most useful as a patient long-positioning window", "application": "Use accumulation to prepare a long case, then require price confirmation before increasing conviction. The condition is a positioning context rather than a stand-alone instruction to buy.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved higher 93.6% of the time across 125 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 1862, "repeatedCycles": 125, "completedCycles": 1883, "medianAdverseMove": 20.8, "medianCycleReturn": 55.0, "averageAdverseMove": 30.1, "averageCycleReturn": 74.3, "medianFavourableMove": 57.6, "averageFavourableMove": 81.8, "medianGrossOpportunity": 55.0, "averageGrossOpportunity": 74.3, "expectedDirectionPercent": 89.6, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 2.47, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 93, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 7.5, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 101.4, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 86.9, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 9.2, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 120, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 88.2, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 1758, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 59, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 66.5, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 90.9, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 93.6, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 87.9, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 96.7}, "distribution": {"use": "Downside risk and short positioning", "label": "Distribution to accumulation", "cycles": 5058, "thresholds": [{"reached": 4110, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 80.2, "confidenceHigh": 82.3, "cyclesObserved": 5058, "reachedPercent": 81.3, "medianWeeksToReach": 4.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 16.4, "completedReachedPercent": 91.6}, {"reached": 3590, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 69.7, "confidenceHigh": 72.2, "cyclesObserved": 5058, "reachedPercent": 71.0, "medianWeeksToReach": 9.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 26.1, "completedReachedPercent": 86.6}, {"reached": 2714, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 52.3, "confidenceHigh": 55.0, "cyclesObserved": 5058, "reachedPercent": 53.7, "medianWeeksToReach": 22.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 36.4, "completedReachedPercent": 74.2}, {"reached": 1841, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 35.1, "confidenceHigh": 37.7, "cyclesObserved": 5058, "reachedPercent": 36.4, "medianWeeksToReach": 29, "averageWeeksToReach": 40.7, "completedReachedPercent": 55.1}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Price rose by 82.8% on average before completed downside cycles resolved. That adverse path makes unconfirmed or unbounded short positioning unsuitable.", "timing": "Price left distribution after 5.3 weeks on average, but the deepest reversal in completed cycles occurred after 61.0 weeks on average.", "finding": "71.0% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 9 weeks); 53.7% reached 20% (median 22 weeks).", "headline": "Distribution has been a downside warning before it has been a short entry", "application": "Use distribution first to review long exposure, protect gains and watch for downward confirmation. A short case needs price weakness and defined risk; distribution alone is not enough.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved lower 95.9% of the time across 241 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 2495, "repeatedCycles": 241, "completedCycles": 2563, "medianAdverseMove": 31.4, "medianCycleReturn": -31.7, "averageAdverseMove": 82.8, "averageCycleReturn": -24.2, "medianFavourableMove": 32.2, "averageFavourableMove": 34.2, "medianGrossOpportunity": 31.7, "averageGrossOpportunity": 24.2, "expectedDirectionPercent": 86.5, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 0.29, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 76, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 10.0, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 95.4, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 40.6, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 5.3, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 231, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 85.2, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 2322, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 57, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 61.0, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 87.8, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 95.9, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 92.5, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 97.7}}}}}, "methodBoundary": "Public outcomes and sample sizes only. Proprietary signal construction is not disclosed."}