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The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.0 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.2, "probabilityDifference": -2.0}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 30533, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.4, "confidenceLow": 60.7, "expectedCount": 18716, "confidenceHigh": 61.8, "expectedPercent": 61.3}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 27235, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.7, "confidenceLow": 59.2, "expectedCount": 16291, "confidenceHigh": 60.4, "expectedPercent": 59.8}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 92618, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.4, "confidenceLow": 62.1, "expectedCount": 57798, "confidenceHigh": 62.7, "expectedPercent": 62.4}, "horizons": [{"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 31489, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.2, "confidenceLow": 54.2, "expectedCount": 17243, "confidenceHigh": 55.3, "expectedPercent": 54.8}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 28166, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.6, "confidenceLow": 55.4, "expectedCount": 15769, "confidenceHigh": 56.6, "expectedPercent": 56.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 95545, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.5, "confidenceLow": 57.1, "expectedCount": 54834, "confidenceHigh": 57.7, "expectedPercent": 57.4}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.3, "probabilityDifference": -1.2}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 30533, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.4, "confidenceLow": 60.7, "expectedCount": 18716, "confidenceHigh": 61.8, "expectedPercent": 61.3}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 27235, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.7, "confidenceLow": 59.2, "expectedCount": 16291, "confidenceHigh": 60.4, "expectedPercent": 59.8}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 92618, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.4, "confidenceLow": 62.1, "expectedCount": 57798, "confidenceHigh": 62.7, "expectedPercent": 62.4}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.0, "probabilityDifference": 1.5}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 29040, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 11.4, "confidenceLow": 67.1, "expectedCount": 19635, "confidenceHigh": 68.1, "expectedPercent": 67.6}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 25449, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 10.4, "confidenceLow": 62.8, "expectedCount": 16135, "confidenceHigh": 64.0, "expectedPercent": 63.4}, "state": "supports", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 87133, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.8, "confidenceLow": 65.5, "expectedCount": 57305, "confidenceHigh": 66.1, "expectedPercent": 65.8}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 1.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.6, "probabilityDifference": 4.2}], "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use agreement to distinguish supported trends from moves that lack confirmation.", "role": "Conditional research angle", "avoid": "Do not confuse alignment with certainty; an aligned market can still reverse.", "label": "Horizon-specific", "state": "selective", "confirm": "Check that the advantage remains visible beyond the shortest horizon and repeats across completed years.", "headline": "Agreement improves conviction at the horizons where it persists", "observed": "At 26 weeks, price and market dynamics positive was followed by a higher price in 67.6% of cases: +4.2 points versus price and market dynamics negative and +1.8 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +1.0 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 1}, "returnDifference": -0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.0, "probabilityDifference": 1.5}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 28365, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.9, "confidenceLow": 62.2, "expectedCount": 17789, "confidenceHigh": 63.3, "expectedPercent": 62.7}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 27567, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.1, "confidenceLow": 56.9, "expectedCount": 15849, "confidenceHigh": 58.1, "expectedPercent": 57.5}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 92618, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.4, "confidenceLow": 62.1, "expectedCount": 57798, "confidenceHigh": 62.7, "expectedPercent": 62.4}, "horizons": [{"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 29421, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 56.5, "expectedCount": 16799, "confidenceHigh": 57.7, "expectedPercent": 57.1}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 28362, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 54.7, "expectedCount": 15685, "confidenceHigh": 55.9, "expectedPercent": 55.3}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 95545, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.5, "confidenceLow": 57.1, "expectedCount": 54834, "confidenceHigh": 57.7, "expectedPercent": 57.4}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 0.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.2, "probabilityDifference": 1.8}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 28365, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.9, "confidenceLow": 62.2, "expectedCount": 17789, "confidenceHigh": 63.3, "expectedPercent": 62.7}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 27567, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.1, "confidenceLow": 56.9, "expectedCount": 15849, "confidenceHigh": 58.1, "expectedPercent": 57.5}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 92618, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.4, "confidenceLow": 62.1, "expectedCount": 57798, "confidenceHigh": 62.7, "expectedPercent": 62.4}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 0.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.5, "probabilityDifference": 5.2}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 26947, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 11.8, "confidenceLow": 66.8, "expectedCount": 18145, "confidenceHigh": 67.9, "expectedPercent": 67.3}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 25666, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 10.3, "confidenceLow": 63.8, "expectedCount": 16515, "confidenceHigh": 64.9, "expectedPercent": 64.3}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 87133, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.8, "confidenceLow": 65.5, "expectedCount": 57305, "confidenceHigh": 66.1, "expectedPercent": 65.8}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 1.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 2.0, "probabilityDifference": 3.0}], "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use disagreement to identify prices that may be early or late relative to the underlying market behaviour.", "role": "Primary research filter", "avoid": "Do not assume every divergence must close, or that it must close immediately.", "label": "Strong and persistent", "state": "strong", "confirm": "Wait for price to begin resolving toward Market Dynamics, or for a separate signal to confirm the change.", "headline": "Market Dynamics leading price is an early-change watchlist angle", "observed": "At 12 weeks, market dynamics stronger than price was followed by a higher price in 62.7% of cases: +5.2 points versus price stronger than market dynamics and +0.3 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.8 points.", "bestHorizon": 12, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 3 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 3, "supportingHorizons": 2}, "returnDifference": 0.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.5, "probabilityDifference": 5.2}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 2996, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.0, "confidenceLow": 50.1, "expectedCount": 1554, "confidenceHigh": 53.7, "expectedPercent": 51.9}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 13344, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.4, "confidenceLow": 63.4, "expectedCount": 8573, "confidenceHigh": 65.1, "expectedPercent": 64.2}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 92618, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.4, "confidenceLow": 62.1, "expectedCount": 57798, "confidenceHigh": 62.7, "expectedPercent": 62.4}, "horizons": [{"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 3105, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.0, "confidenceLow": 48.3, "expectedCount": 1555, "confidenceHigh": 51.8, "expectedPercent": 50.1}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 13713, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.9, "confidenceLow": 58.1, "expectedCount": 8075, "confidenceHigh": 59.7, "expectedPercent": 58.9}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 95545, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.5, "confidenceLow": 57.1, "expectedCount": 54834, "confidenceHigh": 57.7, "expectedPercent": 57.4}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": 0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -7.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.5, "probabilityDifference": -8.8}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 2996, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.0, "confidenceLow": 50.1, "expectedCount": 1554, "confidenceHigh": 53.7, "expectedPercent": 51.9}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 13344, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.4, "confidenceLow": 63.4, "expectedCount": 8573, "confidenceHigh": 65.1, "expectedPercent": 64.2}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 92618, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.4, "confidenceLow": 62.1, "expectedCount": 57798, "confidenceHigh": 62.7, "expectedPercent": 62.4}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -0.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -10.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.6, "probabilityDifference": -12.3}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 2863, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 10.3, "confidenceLow": 52.2, "expectedCount": 1546, "confidenceHigh": 55.8, "expectedPercent": 54.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 12319, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 12.1, "confidenceLow": 69.8, "expectedCount": 8703, "confidenceHigh": 71.4, "expectedPercent": 70.6}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 87133, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.8, "confidenceLow": 65.5, "expectedCount": 57305, "confidenceHigh": 66.1, "expectedPercent": 65.8}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -1.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -11.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.5, "probabilityDifference": -16.6}], "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use accumulation and distribution to frame price location, patience, risk and the quality of a later signal.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not buy solely because price is in accumulation or sell solely because it is in distribution.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Look for a completed move out of the zone and a compatible Market Dynamics signal before treating location as timing.", "headline": "The zones describe location and risk, not a stand-alone reversal trigger", "observed": "At 4 weeks, accumulation was followed by a higher price in 50.1% of cases: -8.8 points versus distribution and -7.3 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.1 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -10.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.6, "probabilityDifference": -12.3}], "buySignalCaseStudy": {"title": "First valid Market Dynamics signal", "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 0.9, "directionalEdgePoints": 5.1}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 2950, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.4, "confidenceLow": 60.7, "expectedCount": 1843, "confidenceHigh": 64.2, "baselinePercent": 57.4, "expectedPercent": 62.5, "baselineAverageReturn": 1.5}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 3.7, "directionalEdgePoints": 8.0}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 2903, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.1, "confidenceLow": 68.8, "expectedCount": 2045, "confidenceHigh": 72.1, "baselinePercent": 62.4, "expectedPercent": 70.4, "baselineAverageReturn": 4.4}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 8.9, "directionalEdgePoints": 15.7}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 2819, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 18.7, "confidenceLow": 80.0, "expectedCount": 2297, "confidenceHigh": 82.9, "baselinePercent": 65.8, "expectedPercent": 81.5, "baselineAverageReturn": 9.8}], "expectedDirection": "higher"}, "positioningOutcomes": {"accumulation": {"use": "Long positioning", "label": "Accumulation to distribution", "cycles": 714, "thresholds": [{"reached": 625, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 84.9, "confidenceHigh": 89.8, "cyclesObserved": 714, "reachedPercent": 87.5, "medianWeeksToReach": 4, "averageWeeksToReach": 14.9, "completedReachedPercent": 94.7}, {"reached": 580, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 78.2, "confidenceHigh": 83.9, "cyclesObserved": 714, "reachedPercent": 81.2, "medianWeeksToReach": 7.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 20.6, "completedReachedPercent": 89.6}, {"reached": 483, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 64.1, "confidenceHigh": 71.0, "cyclesObserved": 714, "reachedPercent": 67.6, "medianWeeksToReach": 17, "averageWeeksToReach": 31.9, "completedReachedPercent": 77.2}, {"reached": 392, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 51.2, "confidenceHigh": 58.5, "cyclesObserved": 714, "reachedPercent": 54.9, "medianWeeksToReach": 26.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 37.2, "completedReachedPercent": 64.4}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Completed cycles experienced an average adverse move of 19.7% before resolution. Position size and confirmation still matter.", "timing": "The condition lasted 8.9 weeks on average before price left accumulation, while the best advance in completed cycles occurred after 68.3 weeks on average.", "finding": "81.2% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 7 weeks); 67.6% reached 20% (median 17 weeks).", "headline": "Accumulation has been most useful as a patient long-positioning window", "application": "Use accumulation to prepare a long case, then require price confirmation before increasing conviction. The condition is a positioning context rather than a stand-alone instruction to buy.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved higher 94.1% of the time across 34 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 222, "repeatedCycles": 34, "completedCycles": 492, "medianAdverseMove": 10.2, "medianCycleReturn": 38.7, "averageAdverseMove": 19.7, "averageCycleReturn": 55.8, "medianFavourableMove": 39.9, "averageFavourableMove": 59.7, "medianGrossOpportunity": 38.7, "averageGrossOpportunity": 55.8, "expectedDirectionPercent": 95.5, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 2.83, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 84.0, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 3.9, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 89.3, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 76.0, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 8.9, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 32, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 93.3, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 458, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 62.5, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 68.3, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 97.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 94.1, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 80.9, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 98.4}, "distribution": {"use": "Downside risk and short positioning", "label": "Distribution to accumulation", "cycles": 1709, "thresholds": [{"reached": 967, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 54.2, "confidenceHigh": 58.9, "cyclesObserved": 1709, "reachedPercent": 56.6, "medianWeeksToReach": 8, "averageWeeksToReach": 24.7, "completedReachedPercent": 84.4}, {"reached": 704, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 38.9, "confidenceHigh": 43.5, "cyclesObserved": 1709, "reachedPercent": 41.2, "medianWeeksToReach": 14.5, "averageWeeksToReach": 31.5, "completedReachedPercent": 74.7}, {"reached": 410, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 22.0, "confidenceHigh": 26.1, "cyclesObserved": 1709, "reachedPercent": 24.0, "medianWeeksToReach": 21.5, "averageWeeksToReach": 39.3, "completedReachedPercent": 53.9}, {"reached": 269, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 14.1, "confidenceHigh": 17.5, "cyclesObserved": 1709, "reachedPercent": 15.7, "medianWeeksToReach": 40, "averageWeeksToReach": 49.7, "completedReachedPercent": 38.9}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Price rose by 110.1% on average before completed downside cycles resolved. That adverse path makes unconfirmed or unbounded short positioning unsuitable.", "timing": "Price left distribution after 8.8 weeks on average, but the deepest reversal in completed cycles occurred after 66.2 weeks on average.", "finding": "41.2% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 14.5 weeks); 24.0% reached 20% (median 21.5 weeks).", "headline": "Distribution has been a downside warning before it has been a short entry", "application": "Use distribution first to review long exposure, protect gains and watch for downward confirmation. A short case needs price weakness and defined risk; distribution alone is not enough.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved lower 96.0% of the time across 25 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 1210, "repeatedCycles": 25, "completedCycles": 499, "medianAdverseMove": 31.8, "medianCycleReturn": -19.5, "averageAdverseMove": 110.1, "averageCycleReturn": -10.0, "medianFavourableMove": 23.6, "averageFavourableMove": 27.3, "medianGrossOpportunity": 19.5, "averageGrossOpportunity": 10.0, "expectedDirectionPercent": 79.4, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 0.09, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 114, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 17.3, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 113.5, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 37.1, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 8.8, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 24, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 75.6, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 474, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 63, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 66.2, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 82.7, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 96.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 80.5, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 99.3}}}, "etf": {"label": "Canada ETFs", "annual": [{"state": "doesNotSupport", "period": "2020", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 1060, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": -3.1, "confidenceLow": 55.0, "expectedCount": 615, "confidenceHigh": 61.0, "expectedPercent": 58.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 733, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.3, "confidenceLow": 63.2, "expectedCount": 489, "confidenceHigh": 70.0, "expectedPercent": 66.7}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2717, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.0, "confidenceLow": 85.8, "expectedCount": 2366, "confidenceHigh": 88.3, "expectedPercent": 87.1}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -8.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -29.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -9.1, "probabilityDifference": -8.7}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 2469, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.7, "confidenceLow": 71.1, "expectedCount": 1800, "confidenceHigh": 74.6, "expectedPercent": 72.9}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 2389, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.5, "confidenceLow": 68.4, "expectedCount": 1679, "confidenceHigh": 72.1, "expectedPercent": 70.3}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2717, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.0, "confidenceLow": 85.8, "expectedCount": 2366, "confidenceHigh": 88.3, "expectedPercent": 87.1}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -14.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -3.3, "probabilityDifference": 2.6}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 2068, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.0, "confidenceLow": 73.5, "expectedCount": 1560, "confidenceHigh": 77.2, "expectedPercent": 75.4}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 968, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.2, "confidenceLow": 69.0, "expectedCount": 696, "confidenceHigh": 74.6, "expectedPercent": 71.9}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2717, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.0, "confidenceLow": 85.8, "expectedCount": 2366, "confidenceHigh": 88.3, "expectedPercent": 87.1}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -3.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -11.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -3.0, "probabilityDifference": 3.5}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 1811, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.9, "confidenceLow": 70.9, "expectedCount": 1322, "confidenceHigh": 75.0, "expectedPercent": 73.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1037, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.6, "confidenceLow": 80.5, "expectedCount": 860, "confidenceHigh": 85.1, "expectedPercent": 82.9}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2717, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.0, "confidenceLow": 85.8, "expectedCount": 2366, "confidenceHigh": 88.3, "expectedPercent": 87.1}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -2.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -14.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -2.1, "probabilityDifference": -9.9}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 25, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -11.9, "confidenceLow": 6.4, "expectedCount": 4, "confidenceHigh": 34.7, "expectedPercent": 16.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 496, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.8, "confidenceLow": 83.4, "expectedCount": 430, "confidenceHigh": 89.4, "expectedPercent": 86.7}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2717, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.0, "confidenceLow": 85.8, "expectedCount": 2366, "confidenceHigh": 88.3, "expectedPercent": 87.1}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -17.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -71.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -17.9, "probabilityDifference": -70.7}], "supports": 0, "doesNotSupport": 3}, {"state": "doesNotSupport", "period": "2021", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 879, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": -0.3, "confidenceLow": 51.1, "expectedCount": 478, 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consistent", "averageReturn": 1.2, "confidenceLow": 65.7, "expectedCount": 4807, "confidenceHigh": 67.9, "expectedPercent": 66.8}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 45060, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 63.5, "expectedCount": 28810, "confidenceHigh": 64.4, "expectedPercent": 63.9}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -0.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.2, "probabilityDifference": -6.3}, {"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 7427, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.5, "confidenceLow": 63.6, "expectedCount": 4805, "confidenceHigh": 65.8, "expectedPercent": 64.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 7036, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.2, "confidenceLow": 68.9, "expectedCount": 4924, "confidenceHigh": 71.0, "expectedPercent": 70.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 43478, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.1, "confidenceLow": 70.6, "expectedCount": 30898, "confidenceHigh": 71.5, "expectedPercent": 71.1}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -1.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -6.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.6, "probabilityDifference": -5.3}, {"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 6880, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.7, "confidenceLow": 69.9, "expectedCount": 4887, "confidenceHigh": 72.1, "expectedPercent": 71.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 6525, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.2, "confidenceLow": 75.6, "expectedCount": 4998, "confidenceHigh": 77.6, "expectedPercent": 76.6}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 40627, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.4, "confidenceLow": 75.0, "expectedCount": 30661, "confidenceHigh": 75.9, "expectedPercent": 75.5}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -2.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -4.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.7, "probabilityDifference": -5.6}], "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use the state to describe the current backdrop and to rank otherwise similar setups.", "role": "Context and risk control", "avoid": "Do not assume that a positive state must lead to a rise or that a negative state must lead to a fall.", "label": "No standalone edge", "state": "none", "confirm": "Require a change in Market Dynamics, confirmation from price, or a separate qualifying signal before treating the state as actionable.", "headline": "The sign describes the backdrop, not a directional trigger", "observed": "At 12 weeks, positive state was followed by a higher price in 64.7% of cases: -5.3 points versus negative state and -6.4 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was -1.7 points.", "bestHorizon": 12, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -1.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -6.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.6, "probabilityDifference": -5.3}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 23851, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.5, "confidenceLow": 66.7, "expectedCount": 16051, "confidenceHigh": 67.9, "expectedPercent": 67.3}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 23486, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 70.0, "expectedCount": 16584, "confidenceHigh": 71.2, "expectedPercent": 70.6}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 43478, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.1, "confidenceLow": 70.6, "expectedCount": 30898, "confidenceHigh": 71.5, "expectedPercent": 71.1}, "horizons": [{"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 24695, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 61.9, "expectedCount": 15439, "confidenceHigh": 63.1, "expectedPercent": 62.5}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 24645, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.8, "confidenceLow": 62.0, "expectedCount": 15423, "confidenceHigh": 63.2, "expectedPercent": 62.6}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 45060, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 63.5, "expectedCount": 28810, "confidenceHigh": 64.4, "expectedPercent": 63.9}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.0, "probabilityDifference": -0.1}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 23851, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.5, "confidenceLow": 66.7, "expectedCount": 16051, "confidenceHigh": 67.9, "expectedPercent": 67.3}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 23486, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 70.0, "expectedCount": 16584, "confidenceHigh": 71.2, "expectedPercent": 70.6}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 43478, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.1, "confidenceLow": 70.6, "expectedCount": 30898, "confidenceHigh": 71.5, "expectedPercent": 71.1}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -0.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.6, "probabilityDifference": -3.3}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 22421, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.4, "confidenceLow": 75.0, "expectedCount": 16945, "confidenceHigh": 76.1, "expectedPercent": 75.6}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 22288, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.3, "confidenceLow": 74.3, "expectedCount": 16679, "confidenceHigh": 75.4, "expectedPercent": 74.8}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 40627, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.4, "confidenceLow": 75.0, "expectedCount": 30661, "confidenceHigh": 75.9, "expectedPercent": 75.5}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.0, "probabilityDifference": 0.8}], "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use strengthening or weakening to judge whether an existing price move is gaining or losing support.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not act on a one-period change without checking whether the price structure agrees.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Look for persistence in the change and a compatible response from price before increasing conviction.", "headline": "Strengthening and weakening are confirmation, not timing signals alone", "observed": "At 26 weeks, strengthening was followed by a higher price in 75.6% of cases: +0.8 points versus weakening and +0.1 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.1 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.6, "probabilityDifference": -3.3}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 14472, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.7, "confidenceLow": 68.6, "expectedCount": 10044, "confidenceHigh": 70.1, "expectedPercent": 69.4}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 11699, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 65.9, "expectedCount": 7814, "confidenceHigh": 67.6, "expectedPercent": 66.8}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 43478, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.1, "confidenceLow": 70.6, "expectedCount": 30898, "confidenceHigh": 71.5, "expectedPercent": 71.1}, "horizons": [{"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 15095, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.7, "confidenceLow": 59.5, "expectedCount": 9102, "confidenceHigh": 61.1, "expectedPercent": 60.3}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 12045, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 60.6, "expectedCount": 7407, "confidenceHigh": 62.4, "expectedPercent": 61.5}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 45060, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 63.5, "expectedCount": 28810, "confidenceHigh": 64.4, "expectedPercent": 63.9}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.3, "probabilityDifference": -1.2}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 14472, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.7, "confidenceLow": 68.6, "expectedCount": 10044, "confidenceHigh": 70.1, "expectedPercent": 69.4}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 11699, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 65.9, "expectedCount": 7814, "confidenceHigh": 67.6, "expectedPercent": 66.8}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 43478, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.1, "confidenceLow": 70.6, "expectedCount": 30898, "confidenceHigh": 71.5, "expectedPercent": 71.1}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.4, "probabilityDifference": 2.6}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 13628, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.9, "confidenceLow": 76.8, "expectedCount": 10562, "confidenceHigh": 78.2, "expectedPercent": 77.5}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 10771, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.1, "confidenceLow": 71.6, "expectedCount": 7804, "confidenceHigh": 73.3, "expectedPercent": 72.5}, "state": "supports", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 40627, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.4, "confidenceLow": 75.0, "expectedCount": 30661, "confidenceHigh": 75.9, "expectedPercent": 75.5}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 0.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.5, "probabilityDifference": 5.0}], "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use agreement to distinguish supported trends from moves that lack confirmation.", "role": "Conditional research angle", "avoid": "Do not confuse alignment with certainty; an aligned market can still reverse.", "label": "Horizon-specific", "state": "selective", "confirm": "Check that the advantage remains visible beyond the shortest horizon and repeats across completed years.", "headline": "Agreement improves conviction at the horizons where it persists", "observed": "At 26 weeks, price and market dynamics positive was followed by a higher price in 77.5% of cases: +5.0 points versus price and market dynamics negative and +2.0 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.8 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 2 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 2, "supportingHorizons": 1}, "returnDifference": -0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.4, "probabilityDifference": 2.6}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 13014, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.4, "confidenceLow": 71.2, "expectedCount": 9366, "confidenceHigh": 72.7, "expectedPercent": 72.0}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 12312, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.5, "confidenceLow": 62.4, "expectedCount": 7782, "confidenceHigh": 64.1, "expectedPercent": 63.2}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 43478, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.1, "confidenceLow": 70.6, "expectedCount": 30898, "confidenceHigh": 71.5, "expectedPercent": 71.1}, "horizons": [{"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 13742, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 63.6, "expectedCount": 8845, "confidenceHigh": 65.2, "expectedPercent": 64.4}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 12583, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.1, "confidenceLow": 62.8, "expectedCount": 8007, "confidenceHigh": 64.5, "expectedPercent": 63.6}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 45060, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 63.5, "expectedCount": 28810, "confidenceHigh": 64.4, "expectedPercent": 63.9}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.1, "probabilityDifference": 0.8}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 13014, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.4, "confidenceLow": 71.2, "expectedCount": 9366, "confidenceHigh": 72.7, "expectedPercent": 72.0}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 12312, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.5, "confidenceLow": 62.4, "expectedCount": 7782, "confidenceHigh": 64.1, "expectedPercent": 63.2}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 43478, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.1, "confidenceLow": 70.6, "expectedCount": 30898, "confidenceHigh": 71.5, "expectedPercent": 71.1}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 0.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.3, "probabilityDifference": 8.8}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 12269, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.6, "confidenceLow": 76.9, "expectedCount": 9532, "confidenceHigh": 78.4, "expectedPercent": 77.7}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 11259, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.5, "confidenceLow": 73.6, "expectedCount": 8378, "confidenceHigh": 75.2, "expectedPercent": 74.4}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 40627, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.4, "confidenceLow": 75.0, "expectedCount": 30661, "confidenceHigh": 75.9, "expectedPercent": 75.5}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 1.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.2, "probabilityDifference": 3.3}], "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use disagreement to identify prices that may be early or late relative to the underlying market behaviour.", "role": "Primary research filter", "avoid": "Do not assume every divergence must close, or that it must close immediately.", "label": "Strong and persistent", "state": "strong", "confirm": "Wait for price to begin resolving toward Market Dynamics, or for a separate signal to confirm the change.", "headline": "Market Dynamics leading price is an early-change watchlist angle", "observed": "At 12 weeks, market dynamics stronger than price was followed by a higher price in 72.0% of cases: +8.8 points versus price stronger than market dynamics and +0.9 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.9 points.", "bestHorizon": 12, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 3 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 3, "supportingHorizons": 2}, "returnDifference": 0.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.3, "probabilityDifference": 8.8}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 779, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 51.6, "expectedCount": 429, "confidenceHigh": 58.5, "expectedPercent": 55.1}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 6974, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.2, "confidenceLow": 69.2, "expectedCount": 4900, "confidenceHigh": 71.3, "expectedPercent": 70.3}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 43478, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.1, "confidenceLow": 70.6, "expectedCount": 30898, "confidenceHigh": 71.5, "expectedPercent": 71.1}, "horizons": [{"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 824, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.2, "confidenceLow": 49.1, "expectedCount": 433, "confidenceHigh": 55.9, "expectedPercent": 52.5}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 7175, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 62.1, "expectedCount": 4535, "confidenceHigh": 64.3, "expectedPercent": 63.2}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 45060, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 63.5, "expectedCount": 28810, "confidenceHigh": 64.4, "expectedPercent": 63.9}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": 0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -11.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.2, "probabilityDifference": -10.7}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 779, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 51.6, "expectedCount": 429, "confidenceHigh": 58.5, "expectedPercent": 55.1}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 6974, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.2, "confidenceLow": 69.2, "expectedCount": 4900, "confidenceHigh": 71.3, "expectedPercent": 70.3}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 43478, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.1, "confidenceLow": 70.6, "expectedCount": 30898, "confidenceHigh": 71.5, "expectedPercent": 71.1}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -0.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -16.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.8, "probabilityDifference": -15.2}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 748, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.4, "confidenceLow": 54.5, "expectedCount": 434, "confidenceHigh": 61.5, "expectedPercent": 58.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 6366, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.5, "confidenceLow": 77.4, "expectedCount": 4992, "confidenceHigh": 79.4, "expectedPercent": 78.4}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 40627, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.4, "confidenceLow": 75.0, "expectedCount": 30661, "confidenceHigh": 75.9, "expectedPercent": 75.5}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -2.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -17.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.0, "probabilityDifference": -20.4}], "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use accumulation and distribution to frame price location, patience, risk and the quality of a later signal.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not buy solely because price is in accumulation or sell solely because it is in distribution.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Look for a completed move out of the zone and a compatible Market Dynamics signal before treating location as timing.", "headline": "The zones describe location and risk, not a stand-alone reversal trigger", "observed": "At 4 weeks, accumulation was followed by a higher price in 52.5% of cases: -10.7 points versus distribution and -11.4 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.2 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 2 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 2, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -16.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.8, "probabilityDifference": -15.2}], "buySignalCaseStudy": {"title": "First valid Market Dynamics signal", "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 1.0, "directionalEdgePoints": 8.3}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 1300, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.0, "confidenceLow": 69.7, "expectedCount": 938, "confidenceHigh": 74.5, "baselinePercent": 63.9, "expectedPercent": 72.2, "baselineAverageReturn": 1.0}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 2.5, "directionalEdgePoints": 8.7}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 1276, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.6, "confidenceLow": 77.5, "expectedCount": 1018, "confidenceHigh": 81.9, "baselinePercent": 71.1, "expectedPercent": 79.8, "baselineAverageReturn": 3.1}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 4.7, "directionalEdgePoints": 16.6}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 1237, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 11.1, "confidenceLow": 90.4, "expectedCount": 1139, "confidenceHigh": 93.5, "baselinePercent": 75.5, "expectedPercent": 92.1, "baselineAverageReturn": 6.4}], "expectedDirection": "higher"}, "positioningOutcomes": {"accumulation": {"use": "Long positioning", "label": "Accumulation to distribution", "cycles": 228, "thresholds": [{"reached": 195, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 80.4, "confidenceHigh": 89.5, "cyclesObserved": 228, "reachedPercent": 85.5, "medianWeeksToReach": 6, "averageWeeksToReach": 20.4, "completedReachedPercent": 91.3}, {"reached": 166, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 66.7, "confidenceHigh": 78.2, "cyclesObserved": 228, "reachedPercent": 72.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 10.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 27.9, "completedReachedPercent": 79.2}, {"reached": 112, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 42.7, "confidenceHigh": 55.6, "cyclesObserved": 228, "reachedPercent": 49.1, "medianWeeksToReach": 22.5, "averageWeeksToReach": 40.7, "completedReachedPercent": 53.8}, {"reached": 66, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 23.4, "confidenceHigh": 35.1, "cyclesObserved": 228, "reachedPercent": 28.9, "medianWeeksToReach": 29.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 38.8, "completedReachedPercent": 32.9}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Completed cycles experienced an average adverse move of 10.5% before resolution. Position size and confirmation still matter.", "timing": "The condition lasted 7.1 weeks on average before price left accumulation, while the best advance in completed cycles occurred after 67.8 weeks on average.", "finding": "72.8% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 10 weeks); 49.1% reached 20% (median 22.5 weeks).", "headline": "Accumulation has been most useful as a patient long-positioning window", "application": "Use accumulation to prepare a long case, then require price confirmation before increasing conviction. The condition is a positioning context rather than a stand-alone instruction to buy.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved higher 100.0% of the time across 4 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 55, "repeatedCycles": 4, "completedCycles": 173, "medianAdverseMove": 5.6, "medianCycleReturn": 21.3, "averageAdverseMove": 10.5, "averageCycleReturn": 32.4, "medianFavourableMove": 21.5, "averageFavourableMove": 33.6, "medianGrossOpportunity": 21.3, "averageGrossOpportunity": 32.4, "expectedDirectionPercent": 98.8, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 3.07, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 82, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 1.2, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 80.0, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 77.8, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 7.1, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 4, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 95.9, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 169, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 64, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 67.8, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 99.7, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 100.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 51.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 100.0}, "distribution": {"use": "Downside risk and short positioning", "label": "Distribution to accumulation", "cycles": 838, "thresholds": [{"reached": 333, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 36.5, "confidenceHigh": 43.1, "cyclesObserved": 838, "reachedPercent": 39.7, "medianWeeksToReach": 18, "averageWeeksToReach": 32.6, "completedReachedPercent": 90.1}, {"reached": 184, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 19.3, "confidenceHigh": 24.9, "cyclesObserved": 838, "reachedPercent": 22.0, "medianWeeksToReach": 27.5, "averageWeeksToReach": 43.0, "completedReachedPercent": 71.1}, {"reached": 55, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 5.1, "confidenceHigh": 8.4, "cyclesObserved": 838, "reachedPercent": 6.6, "medianWeeksToReach": 26, "averageWeeksToReach": 47.4, "completedReachedPercent": 27.3}, {"reached": 24, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 1.9, "confidenceHigh": 4.2, "cyclesObserved": 838, "reachedPercent": 2.9, "medianWeeksToReach": 42.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 47.8, "completedReachedPercent": 11.6}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Price rose by 29.1% on average before completed downside cycles resolved. That adverse path makes unconfirmed or unbounded short positioning unsuitable.", "timing": "Price left distribution after 11.2 weeks on average, but the deepest reversal in completed cycles occurred after 53.9 weeks on average.", "finding": "22.0% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 27.5 weeks); 6.6% reached 20% (median 26 weeks).", "headline": "Distribution has been a downside warning before it has been a short entry", "application": "Use distribution first to review long exposure, protect gains and watch for downward confirmation. A short case needs price weakness and defined risk; distribution alone is not enough.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved lower 66.7% of the time across 3 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 717, "repeatedCycles": 3, "completedCycles": 121, "medianAdverseMove": 8.7, "medianCycleReturn": -14.6, "averageAdverseMove": 29.1, "averageCycleReturn": -14.3, "medianFavourableMove": 15.1, "averageFavourableMove": 17.8, "medianGrossOpportunity": 14.6, "averageGrossOpportunity": 14.3, "expectedDirectionPercent": 91.7, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 0.49, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 60, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 3.5, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 73.1, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 9.2, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 11.2, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 3, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 85.5, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 118, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 39, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 53.9, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 95.4, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 66.7, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 20.8, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 93.9}}}, "equity": {"label": "Canada equities", "annual": [{"state": "doesNotSupport", "period": "2020", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 1467, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 8.8, "confidenceLow": 45.7, "expectedCount": 708, "confidenceHigh": 50.8, "expectedPercent": 48.3}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1290, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 12.2, "confidenceLow": 50.4, "expectedCount": 686, "confidenceHigh": 55.9, "expectedPercent": 53.2}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 4087, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 20.5, "confidenceLow": 67.7, "expectedCount": 2825, "confidenceHigh": 70.5, "expectedPercent": 69.1}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -3.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -20.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -11.7, "probabilityDifference": -4.9}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 3687, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 15.1, "confidenceLow": 58.3, "expectedCount": 2209, "confidenceHigh": 61.5, "expectedPercent": 59.9}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 3673, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 14.5, "confidenceLow": 58.3, "expectedCount": 2201, "confidenceHigh": 61.5, "expectedPercent": 59.9}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 4087, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 20.5, "confidenceLow": 67.7, "expectedCount": 2825, "confidenceHigh": 70.5, "expectedPercent": 69.1}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -9.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -5.4, "probabilityDifference": 0.0}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 2520, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 16.7, "confidenceLow": 59.2, "expectedCount": 1540, "confidenceHigh": 63.0, "expectedPercent": 61.1}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1926, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 19.6, "confidenceLow": 63.3, "expectedCount": 1260, "confidenceHigh": 67.5, "expectedPercent": 65.4}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 4087, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 20.5, "confidenceLow": 67.7, "expectedCount": 2825, "confidenceHigh": 70.5, "expectedPercent": 69.1}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -2.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -8.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -3.8, "probabilityDifference": -4.3}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 2362, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 13.7, "confidenceLow": 59.2, "expectedCount": 1446, "confidenceHigh": 63.2, "expectedPercent": 61.2}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1859, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 21.6, "confidenceLow": 63.1, "expectedCount": 1214, "confidenceHigh": 67.4, "expectedPercent": 65.3}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 4087, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 20.5, "confidenceLow": 67.7, "expectedCount": 2825, "confidenceHigh": 70.5, "expectedPercent": 69.1}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -7.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -7.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -6.8, "probabilityDifference": -4.1}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 89, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 21.3, "confidenceLow": 59.5, "expectedCount": 62, "confidenceHigh": 78.2, "expectedPercent": 69.7}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 666, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 21.8, "confidenceLow": 59.3, "expectedCount": 420, "confidenceHigh": 66.6, "expectedPercent": 63.1}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 4087, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 20.5, "confidenceLow": 67.7, "expectedCount": 2825, "confidenceHigh": 70.5, "expectedPercent": 69.1}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -0.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.8, "probabilityDifference": 6.6}], "supports": 0, "doesNotSupport": 3}, {"state": "doesNotSupport", "period": "2021", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 1001, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 0.8, "confidenceLow": 45.1, "expectedCount": 482, "confidenceHigh": 51.2, "expectedPercent": 48.2}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1211, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.7, "confidenceLow": 54.7, "expectedCount": 696, "confidenceHigh": 60.2, "expectedPercent": 57.5}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 7707, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.6, "confidenceLow": 56.0, "expectedCount": 4403, "confidenceHigh": 58.2, "expectedPercent": 57.1}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -4.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -8.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -4.8, "probabilityDifference": -9.3}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 3930, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.6, "confidenceLow": 54.1, "expectedCount": 2188, "confidenceHigh": 57.2, "expectedPercent": 55.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 3895, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.7, "confidenceLow": 56.2, "expectedCount": 2248, "confidenceHigh": 59.3, "expectedPercent": 57.7}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 7707, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.6, "confidenceLow": 56.0, "expectedCount": 4403, "confidenceHigh": 58.2, "expectedPercent": 57.1}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -1.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.0, "probabilityDifference": -2.0}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 2261, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.8, "confidenceLow": 55.6, "expectedCount": 1304, "confidenceHigh": 59.7, "expectedPercent": 57.7}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 2396, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.1, "confidenceLow": 51.3, "expectedCount": 1276, "confidenceHigh": 55.2, "expectedPercent": 53.3}, "state": "supports", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 7707, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.6, "confidenceLow": 56.0, "expectedCount": 4403, "confidenceHigh": 58.2, "expectedPercent": 57.1}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 0.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.8, "probabilityDifference": 4.4}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 2149, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.8, "confidenceLow": 59.6, "expectedCount": 1326, "confidenceHigh": 63.7, "expectedPercent": 61.7}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 2433, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 3.0, "confidenceLow": 48.8, "expectedCount": 1236, "confidenceHigh": 52.8, "expectedPercent": 50.8}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 7707, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.6, "confidenceLow": 56.0, "expectedCount": 4403, "confidenceHigh": 58.2, "expectedPercent": 57.1}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 3.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 4.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.2, "probabilityDifference": 10.9}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 109, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 3.2, "confidenceLow": 30.8, "expectedCount": 43, "confidenceHigh": 48.8, "expectedPercent": 39.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1373, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.9, "confidenceLow": 55.2, "expectedCount": 794, "confidenceHigh": 60.4, "expectedPercent": 57.8}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 7707, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.6, "confidenceLow": 56.0, "expectedCount": 4403, "confidenceHigh": 58.2, "expectedPercent": 57.1}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -3.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -17.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -2.4, "probabilityDifference": -18.4}], "supports": 2, "doesNotSupport": 3}, {"state": "mixed", "period": "2022", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 1297, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.3, "confidenceLow": 41.0, "expectedCount": 566, "confidenceHigh": 46.4, "expectedPercent": 43.6}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 1111, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -1.0, "confidenceLow": 40.0, "expectedCount": 476, "confidenceHigh": 45.8, "expectedPercent": 42.8}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 8046, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.4, "confidenceLow": 43.3, "expectedCount": 3572, "confidenceHigh": 45.5, "expectedPercent": 44.4}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": 0.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.1, "probabilityDifference": 0.8}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 3975, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.3, "confidenceLow": 43.5, "expectedCount": 1789, "confidenceHigh": 46.6, "expectedPercent": 45.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 4062, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.2, "confidenceLow": 43.6, "expectedCount": 1835, "confidenceHigh": 46.7, "expectedPercent": 45.2}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 8046, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.4, "confidenceLow": 43.3, "expectedCount": 3572, "confidenceHigh": 45.5, "expectedPercent": 44.4}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.1, "probabilityDifference": -0.2}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 2171, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.8, "confidenceLow": 41.4, "expectedCount": 943, "confidenceHigh": 45.5, "expectedPercent": 43.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 2723, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.1, "confidenceLow": 43.1, "expectedCount": 1225, "confidenceHigh": 46.9, "expectedPercent": 45.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 8046, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.4, "confidenceLow": 43.3, "expectedCount": 3572, "confidenceHigh": 45.5, "expectedPercent": 44.4}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.4, "probabilityDifference": -1.6}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 2219, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -1.6, "confidenceLow": 40.6, "expectedCount": 946, "confidenceHigh": 44.7, "expectedPercent": 42.6}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 2540, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -2.4, "confidenceLow": 39.2, "expectedCount": 1043, "confidenceHigh": 43.0, "expectedPercent": 41.1}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 8046, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.4, "confidenceLow": 43.3, "expectedCount": 3572, "confidenceHigh": 45.5, "expectedPercent": 44.4}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 0.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.2, "probabilityDifference": 1.5}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 414, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -1.8, "confidenceLow": 37.1, "expectedCount": 173, "confidenceHigh": 46.6, "expectedPercent": 41.8}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 795, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.6, "confidenceLow": 37.3, "expectedCount": 323, "confidenceHigh": 44.1, "expectedPercent": 40.6}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 8046, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.4, "confidenceLow": 43.3, "expectedCount": 3572, "confidenceHigh": 45.5, "expectedPercent": 44.4}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -1.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.4, "probabilityDifference": 1.2}], "supports": 0, "doesNotSupport": 2}, {"state": "doesNotSupport", "period": "2023", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 1229, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.0, "confidenceLow": 42.8, "expectedCount": 560, "confidenceHigh": 48.4, "expectedPercent": 45.6}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1246, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.2, "confidenceLow": 44.4, "expectedCount": 588, "confidenceHigh": 50.0, "expectedPercent": 47.2}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 8354, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.3, "confidenceLow": 44.1, "expectedCount": 3776, "confidenceHigh": 46.3, "expectedPercent": 45.2}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.3, "probabilityDifference": -1.6}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 4124, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.5, "confidenceLow": 44.4, "expectedCount": 1895, "confidenceHigh": 47.5, "expectedPercent": 46.0}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 4013, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.6, "confidenceLow": 43.6, "expectedCount": 1812, "confidenceHigh": 46.7, "expectedPercent": 45.2}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 8354, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.3, "confidenceLow": 44.1, "expectedCount": 3776, "confidenceHigh": 46.3, "expectedPercent": 45.2}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.2, "probabilityDifference": 0.8}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 2571, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.9, "confidenceLow": 41.1, "expectedCount": 1105, "confidenceHigh": 44.9, "expectedPercent": 43.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 2671, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.8, "confidenceLow": 47.2, "expectedCount": 1310, "confidenceHigh": 50.9, "expectedPercent": 49.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 8354, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.3, "confidenceLow": 44.1, "expectedCount": 3776, "confidenceHigh": 46.3, "expectedPercent": 45.2}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -2.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.2, "probabilityDifference": -6.0}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 2368, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.1, "confidenceLow": 40.8, "expectedCount": 1012, "confidenceHigh": 44.7, "expectedPercent": 42.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 2602, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 45.1, "expectedCount": 1222, "confidenceHigh": 48.9, "expectedPercent": 47.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 8354, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.3, "confidenceLow": 44.1, "expectedCount": 3776, "confidenceHigh": 46.3, "expectedPercent": 45.2}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -1.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.4, "probabilityDifference": -4.3}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 583, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.7, "confidenceLow": 42.5, "expectedCount": 271, "confidenceHigh": 50.5, "expectedPercent": 46.5}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 669, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.9, "confidenceLow": 44.1, "expectedCount": 320, "confidenceHigh": 51.6, "expectedPercent": 47.8}, "state": "mixed", "title": 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The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was -0.1 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -1.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.4, "probabilityDifference": -2.5}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 25979, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.6, "confidenceLow": 53.3, "expectedCount": 14001, "confidenceHigh": 54.5, "expectedPercent": 53.9}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 25875, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.0, "confidenceLow": 54.1, "expectedCount": 14158, "confidenceHigh": 55.3, "expectedPercent": 54.7}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 49140, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.6, "confidenceLow": 54.3, "expectedCount": 26900, "confidenceHigh": 55.2, "expectedPercent": 54.7}, "horizons": [{"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 26733, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.9, "confidenceLow": 49.9, "expectedCount": 13505, "confidenceHigh": 51.1, "expectedPercent": 50.5}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 26591, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.1, "confidenceLow": 50.9, "expectedCount": 13693, "confidenceHigh": 52.1, "expectedPercent": 51.5}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 50485, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.9, "confidenceLow": 51.1, "expectedCount": 26024, "confidenceHigh": 52.0, "expectedPercent": 51.5}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.0, "probabilityDifference": -1.0}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 25979, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.6, "confidenceLow": 53.3, "expectedCount": 14001, "confidenceHigh": 54.5, "expectedPercent": 53.9}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 25875, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.0, "confidenceLow": 54.1, "expectedCount": 14158, "confidenceHigh": 55.3, "expectedPercent": 54.7}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 49140, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.6, "confidenceLow": 54.3, "expectedCount": 26900, "confidenceHigh": 55.2, "expectedPercent": 54.7}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -0.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.0, "probabilityDifference": -0.8}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 24764, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 14.3, "confidenceLow": 57.3, "expectedCount": 14349, "confidenceHigh": 58.6, "expectedPercent": 57.9}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 24753, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 14.2, "confidenceLow": 56.9, "expectedCount": 14245, "confidenceHigh": 58.2, "expectedPercent": 57.5}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 46506, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 12.8, "confidenceLow": 56.8, "expectedCount": 26644, "confidenceHigh": 57.7, "expectedPercent": 57.3}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.5, "probabilityDifference": 0.4}], "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use strengthening or weakening to judge whether an existing price move is gaining or losing support.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not act on a one-period change without checking whether the price structure agrees.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Look for persistence in the change and a compatible response from price before increasing conviction.", "headline": "Strengthening and weakening are confirmation, not timing signals alone", "observed": "At 26 weeks, strengthening was followed by a higher price in 57.9% of cases: +0.4 points versus weakening and +0.6 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.1 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.0, "probabilityDifference": -0.8}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 16061, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.9, "confidenceLow": 53.2, "expectedCount": 8672, "confidenceHigh": 54.8, "expectedPercent": 54.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 15536, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.1, "confidenceLow": 53.8, "expectedCount": 8477, "confidenceHigh": 55.3, "expectedPercent": 54.6}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 49140, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.6, "confidenceLow": 54.3, "expectedCount": 26900, "confidenceHigh": 55.2, "expectedPercent": 54.7}, "horizons": [{"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 16394, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.6, "confidenceLow": 48.9, "expectedCount": 8141, "confidenceHigh": 50.4, "expectedPercent": 49.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 16121, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.0, "confidenceLow": 51.1, "expectedCount": 8362, "confidenceHigh": 52.6, "expectedPercent": 51.9}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 50485, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.9, "confidenceLow": 51.1, "expectedCount": 26024, "confidenceHigh": 52.0, "expectedPercent": 51.5}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.3, "probabilityDifference": -2.2}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 16061, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.9, "confidenceLow": 53.2, "expectedCount": 8672, "confidenceHigh": 54.8, "expectedPercent": 54.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 15536, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.1, "confidenceLow": 53.8, "expectedCount": 8477, "confidenceHigh": 55.3, "expectedPercent": 54.6}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 49140, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.6, "confidenceLow": 54.3, "expectedCount": 26900, "confidenceHigh": 55.2, "expectedPercent": 54.7}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.3, "probabilityDifference": -0.6}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 15412, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 15.4, "confidenceLow": 58.1, "expectedCount": 9073, "confidenceHigh": 59.6, "expectedPercent": 58.9}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 14678, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 13.5, "confidenceLow": 56.0, "expectedCount": 8331, "confidenceHigh": 57.6, "expectedPercent": 56.8}, "state": "supports", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 46506, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 12.8, "confidenceLow": 56.8, "expectedCount": 26644, "confidenceHigh": 57.7, "expectedPercent": 57.3}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 1.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 2.6, "probabilityDifference": 2.1}], "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use agreement to distinguish supported trends from moves that lack confirmation.", "role": "Conditional research angle", "avoid": "Do not confuse alignment with certainty; an aligned market can still reverse.", "label": "Horizon-specific", "state": "selective", "confirm": "Check that the advantage remains visible beyond the shortest horizon and repeats across completed years.", "headline": "Agreement improves conviction at the horizons where it persists", "observed": "At 26 weeks, price and market dynamics positive was followed by a higher price in 58.9% of cases: +2.1 points versus price and market dynamics negative and +1.6 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +1.9 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 2 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 2, "supportingHorizons": 1}, "returnDifference": -0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.3, "probabilityDifference": -0.6}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 15351, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.1, "confidenceLow": 54.1, "expectedCount": 8423, "confidenceHigh": 55.7, "expectedPercent": 54.9}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 15255, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.4, "confidenceLow": 52.1, "expectedCount": 8067, "confidenceHigh": 53.7, "expectedPercent": 52.9}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 49140, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.6, "confidenceLow": 54.3, "expectedCount": 26900, "confidenceHigh": 55.2, "expectedPercent": 54.7}, "horizons": [{"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 15679, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.6, "confidenceLow": 49.9, "expectedCount": 7954, "confidenceHigh": 51.5, "expectedPercent": 50.7}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 15779, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.4, "confidenceLow": 47.9, "expectedCount": 7678, "confidenceHigh": 49.4, "expectedPercent": 48.7}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 50485, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.9, "confidenceLow": 51.1, "expectedCount": 26024, "confidenceHigh": 52.0, "expectedPercent": 51.5}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.3, "probabilityDifference": 2.0}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 15351, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.1, "confidenceLow": 54.1, "expectedCount": 8423, "confidenceHigh": 55.7, "expectedPercent": 54.9}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 15255, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.4, "confidenceLow": 52.1, "expectedCount": 8067, "confidenceHigh": 53.7, "expectedPercent": 52.9}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 49140, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.6, "confidenceLow": 54.3, "expectedCount": 26900, "confidenceHigh": 55.2, "expectedPercent": 54.7}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 0.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.5, "probabilityDifference": 2.0}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 14678, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 15.3, "confidenceLow": 57.9, "expectedCount": 8613, "confidenceHigh": 59.5, "expectedPercent": 58.7}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 14407, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 13.4, "confidenceLow": 55.7, "expectedCount": 8137, "confidenceHigh": 57.3, "expectedPercent": 56.5}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 46506, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 12.8, "confidenceLow": 56.8, "expectedCount": 26644, "confidenceHigh": 57.7, "expectedPercent": 57.3}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 1.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 2.5, "probabilityDifference": 2.2}], "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use disagreement to identify prices that may be early or late relative to the underlying market behaviour.", "role": "Primary research filter", "avoid": "Do not assume every divergence must close, or that it must close immediately.", "label": "Strong and persistent", "state": "strong", "confirm": "Wait for price to begin resolving toward Market Dynamics, or for a separate signal to confirm the change.", "headline": "Market Dynamics leading price is an early-change watchlist angle", "observed": "At 26 weeks, market dynamics stronger than price was followed by a higher price in 58.7% of cases: +2.2 points versus price stronger than market dynamics and +1.4 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +1.9 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 3 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 3, "supportingHorizons": 3}, "returnDifference": 0.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.5, "probabilityDifference": 2.0}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 2217, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 5.9, "confidenceLow": 48.7, "expectedCount": 1125, "confidenceHigh": 52.8, "expectedPercent": 50.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 6370, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.8, "confidenceLow": 56.4, "expectedCount": 3673, "confidenceHigh": 58.9, "expectedPercent": 57.7}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 49140, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.6, "confidenceLow": 54.3, "expectedCount": 26900, "confidenceHigh": 55.2, "expectedPercent": 54.7}, "horizons": [{"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 2281, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 47.1, "expectedCount": 1122, "confidenceHigh": 51.2, "expectedPercent": 49.2}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 6538, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.8, "confidenceLow": 52.9, "expectedCount": 3540, "confidenceHigh": 55.4, "expectedPercent": 54.1}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 50485, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.9, "confidenceLow": 51.1, "expectedCount": 26024, "confidenceHigh": 52.0, "expectedPercent": 51.5}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -0.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.4, "probabilityDifference": -4.9}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 2217, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 5.9, "confidenceLow": 48.7, "expectedCount": 1125, "confidenceHigh": 52.8, "expectedPercent": 50.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 6370, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.8, "confidenceLow": 56.4, "expectedCount": 3673, "confidenceHigh": 58.9, "expectedPercent": 57.7}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 49140, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.6, "confidenceLow": 54.3, "expectedCount": 26900, "confidenceHigh": 55.2, "expectedPercent": 54.7}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -1.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -4.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.3, "probabilityDifference": -7.0}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 2115, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 12.1, "confidenceLow": 50.4, "expectedCount": 1112, "confidenceHigh": 54.7, "expectedPercent": 52.6}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 5953, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 17.0, "confidenceLow": 61.1, "expectedCount": 3711, "confidenceHigh": 63.6, "expectedPercent": 62.3}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 46506, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 12.8, "confidenceLow": 56.8, "expectedCount": 26644, "confidenceHigh": 57.7, "expectedPercent": 57.3}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -4.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -4.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.7, "probabilityDifference": -9.7}], "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use accumulation and distribution to frame price location, patience, risk and the quality of a later signal.", "role": "Context and risk control", "avoid": "Do not buy solely because price is in accumulation or sell solely because it is in distribution.", "label": "No standalone edge", "state": "none", "confirm": "Look for a completed move out of the zone and a compatible Market Dynamics signal before treating location as timing.", "headline": "The zones describe location and risk, not a stand-alone reversal trigger", "observed": "At 4 weeks, accumulation was followed by a higher price in 49.2% of cases: -4.9 points versus distribution and -2.3 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was -0.5 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -1.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -4.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.3, "probabilityDifference": -7.0}], "buySignalCaseStudy": {"title": "First valid Market Dynamics signal", "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 0.9, "directionalEdgePoints": 3.3}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 1650, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.8, "confidenceLow": 52.4, "expectedCount": 905, "confidenceHigh": 57.2, "baselinePercent": 51.5, "expectedPercent": 54.8, "baselineAverageReturn": 1.9}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 4.5, "directionalEdgePoints": 8.4}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 1627, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 10.1, "confidenceLow": 60.7, "expectedCount": 1027, "confidenceHigh": 65.4, "baselinePercent": 54.7, "expectedPercent": 63.1, "baselineAverageReturn": 5.6}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 11.8, "directionalEdgePoints": 15.9}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 1582, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 24.6, "confidenceLow": 71.0, "expectedCount": 1158, "confidenceHigh": 75.3, "baselinePercent": 57.3, "expectedPercent": 73.2, "baselineAverageReturn": 12.8}], "expectedDirection": "higher"}, "positioningOutcomes": {"accumulation": {"use": "Long positioning", "label": "Accumulation to distribution", "cycles": 486, "thresholds": [{"reached": 430, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 85.3, "confidenceHigh": 91.0, "cyclesObserved": 486, "reachedPercent": 88.5, "medianWeeksToReach": 4.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 12.4, "completedReachedPercent": 96.6}, {"reached": 414, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 81.8, "confidenceHigh": 88.1, "cyclesObserved": 486, "reachedPercent": 85.2, "medianWeeksToReach": 7.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 17.7, "completedReachedPercent": 95.3}, {"reached": 371, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 72.4, "confidenceHigh": 79.9, "cyclesObserved": 486, "reachedPercent": 76.3, "medianWeeksToReach": 16, "averageWeeksToReach": 29.2, "completedReachedPercent": 90.0}, {"reached": 326, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 62.8, "confidenceHigh": 71.1, "cyclesObserved": 486, "reachedPercent": 67.1, "medianWeeksToReach": 25.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 36.8, "completedReachedPercent": 81.5}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Completed cycles experienced an average adverse move of 24.7% before resolution. Position size and confirmation still matter.", "timing": "The condition lasted 9.5 weeks on average before price left accumulation, while the best advance in completed cycles occurred after 68.6 weeks on average.", "finding": "85.2% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 7 weeks); 76.3% reached 20% (median 16 weeks).", "headline": "Accumulation has been most useful as a patient long-positioning window", "application": "Use accumulation to prepare a long case, then require price confirmation before increasing conviction. The condition is a positioning context rather than a stand-alone instruction to buy.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved higher 93.3% of the time across 30 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 167, "repeatedCycles": 30, "completedCycles": 319, "medianAdverseMove": 16.8, "medianCycleReturn": 57.2, "averageAdverseMove": 24.7, "averageCycleReturn": 68.5, "medianFavourableMove": 58.9, "averageFavourableMove": 73.8, "medianGrossOpportunity": 57.2, "averageGrossOpportunity": 68.5, "expectedDirectionPercent": 93.7, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 2.77, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 86, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 5.3, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 94.4, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 75.7, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 9.5, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 28, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 90.5, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 289, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 60, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 68.6, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 95.9, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 93.3, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 78.7, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 98.2}, "distribution": {"use": "Downside risk and short positioning", "label": "Distribution to accumulation", "cycles": 871, "thresholds": [{"reached": 634, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 69.7, "confidenceHigh": 75.6, "cyclesObserved": 871, "reachedPercent": 72.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 5.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 20.5, "completedReachedPercent": 82.5}, {"reached": 520, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 56.4, "confidenceHigh": 62.9, "cyclesObserved": 871, "reachedPercent": 59.7, "medianWeeksToReach": 10.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 27.5, "completedReachedPercent": 75.9}, {"reached": 355, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 37.5, "confidenceHigh": 44.1, "cyclesObserved": 871, "reachedPercent": 40.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 21, "averageWeeksToReach": 38.0, "completedReachedPercent": 62.4}, {"reached": 245, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 25.2, "confidenceHigh": 31.2, "cyclesObserved": 871, "reachedPercent": 28.1, "medianWeeksToReach": 40, "averageWeeksToReach": 49.9, "completedReachedPercent": 47.6}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Price rose by 136.1% on average before completed downside cycles resolved. That adverse path makes unconfirmed or unbounded short positioning unsuitable.", "timing": "Price left distribution after 6.3 weeks on average, but the deepest reversal in completed cycles occurred after 70.2 weeks on average.", "finding": "59.7% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 10 weeks); 40.8% reached 20% (median 21 weeks).", "headline": "Distribution has been a downside warning before it has been a short entry", "application": "Use distribution first to review long exposure, protect gains and watch for downward confirmation. A short case needs price weakness and defined risk; distribution alone is not enough.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved lower 100.0% of the time across 22 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 493, "repeatedCycles": 22, "completedCycles": 378, "medianAdverseMove": 43.5, "medianCycleReturn": -26.2, "averageAdverseMove": 136.1, "averageCycleReturn": -8.6, "medianFavourableMove": 29.1, "averageFavourableMove": 30.3, "medianGrossOpportunity": 26.2, "averageGrossOpportunity": 8.6, "expectedDirectionPercent": 75.4, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 0.06, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 130.5, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 21.7, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 126.4, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 40.9, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 6.3, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 21, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 70.8, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 356, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 71.5, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 70.2, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 79.5, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 100.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 85.1, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 100.0}}}}}, "methodBoundary": "Public outcomes and sample sizes only. Proprietary signal construction is not disclosed."}