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The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.1 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.1, "probabilityDifference": -2.4}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 21731, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.2, "confidenceLow": 50.5, "expectedCount": 11120, "confidenceHigh": 51.8, "expectedPercent": 51.2}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 21311, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.1, "confidenceLow": 53.3, "expectedCount": 11501, "confidenceHigh": 54.6, "expectedPercent": 54.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 66887, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.9, "confidenceLow": 53.5, "expectedCount": 36027, "confidenceHigh": 54.2, "expectedPercent": 53.9}, "horizons": [{"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 22463, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.1, "confidenceLow": 46.9, "expectedCount": 10679, "confidenceHigh": 48.2, "expectedPercent": 47.5}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 21885, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 51.4, "expectedCount": 11403, "confidenceHigh": 52.8, "expectedPercent": 52.1}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 69114, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.6, "confidenceLow": 50.3, "expectedCount": 35006, "confidenceHigh": 51.0, "expectedPercent": 50.6}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.5, "probabilityDifference": -4.6}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 21731, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.2, "confidenceLow": 50.5, "expectedCount": 11120, "confidenceHigh": 51.8, "expectedPercent": 51.2}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 21311, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.1, "confidenceLow": 53.3, "expectedCount": 11501, "confidenceHigh": 54.6, "expectedPercent": 54.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 66887, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.9, "confidenceLow": 53.5, "expectedCount": 36027, "confidenceHigh": 54.2, "expectedPercent": 53.9}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.7, "probabilityDifference": -2.8}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 20644, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.6, "confidenceLow": 55.5, "expectedCount": 11591, "confidenceHigh": 56.8, "expectedPercent": 56.1}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 20022, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.4, "confidenceLow": 53.9, "expectedCount": 10924, "confidenceHigh": 55.2, "expectedPercent": 54.6}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 62740, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.1, "confidenceLow": 55.2, "expectedCount": 34883, "confidenceHigh": 56.0, "expectedPercent": 55.6}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.5, "probabilityDifference": 1.5}], "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use agreement to distinguish supported trends from moves that lack confirmation.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not confuse alignment with certainty; an aligned market can still reverse.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Check that the advantage remains visible beyond the shortest horizon and repeats across completed years.", "headline": "Agreement describes alignment, but does not select direction by itself", "observed": "At 26 weeks, price and market dynamics positive was followed by a higher price in 56.1% of cases: +1.5 points versus price and market dynamics negative and +0.5 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.2 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.7, "probabilityDifference": -2.8}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 20574, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.0, "confidenceLow": 54.1, "expectedCount": 11274, "confidenceHigh": 55.5, "expectedPercent": 54.8}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 20922, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.9, "confidenceLow": 50.0, "expectedCount": 10599, "confidenceHigh": 51.3, "expectedPercent": 50.7}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 66887, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.9, "confidenceLow": 53.5, "expectedCount": 36027, "confidenceHigh": 54.2, "expectedPercent": 53.9}, "horizons": [{"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 21403, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.3, "confidenceLow": 51.5, "expectedCount": 11156, "confidenceHigh": 52.8, "expectedPercent": 52.1}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 21426, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 0.8, "confidenceLow": 49.7, "expectedCount": 10791, "confidenceHigh": 51.0, "expectedPercent": 50.4}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 69114, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.6, "confidenceLow": 50.3, "expectedCount": 35006, "confidenceHigh": 51.0, "expectedPercent": 50.6}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -0.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.3, "probabilityDifference": 1.7}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 20574, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.0, "confidenceLow": 54.1, "expectedCount": 11274, "confidenceHigh": 55.5, "expectedPercent": 54.8}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 20922, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.9, "confidenceLow": 50.0, "expectedCount": 10599, "confidenceHigh": 51.3, "expectedPercent": 50.7}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 66887, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.9, "confidenceLow": 53.5, "expectedCount": 36027, "confidenceHigh": 54.2, "expectedPercent": 53.9}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.1, "probabilityDifference": 4.1}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 19566, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.0, "confidenceLow": 56.8, "expectedCount": 11242, "confidenceHigh": 58.1, "expectedPercent": 57.5}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 19538, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.0, "confidenceLow": 53.1, "expectedCount": 10505, "confidenceHigh": 54.5, "expectedPercent": 53.8}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 62740, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.1, "confidenceLow": 55.2, "expectedCount": 34883, "confidenceHigh": 56.0, "expectedPercent": 55.6}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 1.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.9, "probabilityDifference": 3.7}], "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use disagreement to identify prices that may be early or late relative to the underlying market behaviour.", "role": "Primary research filter", "avoid": "Do not assume every divergence must close, or that it must close immediately.", "label": "Strong and persistent", "state": "strong", "confirm": "Wait for price to begin resolving toward Market Dynamics, or for a separate signal to confirm the change.", "headline": "Market Dynamics leading price is an early-change watchlist angle", "observed": "At 12 weeks, market dynamics stronger than price was followed by a higher price in 54.8% of cases: +4.1 points versus price stronger than market dynamics and +0.9 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.1 points.", "bestHorizon": 12, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 3 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 3, "supportingHorizons": 2}, "returnDifference": 0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.1, "probabilityDifference": 4.1}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 3000, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.1, "confidenceLow": 44.9, "expectedCount": 1401, "confidenceHigh": 48.5, "expectedPercent": 46.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 7928, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.1, "confidenceLow": 58.6, "expectedCount": 4731, "confidenceHigh": 60.7, "expectedPercent": 59.7}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 66887, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.9, "confidenceLow": 53.5, "expectedCount": 36027, "confidenceHigh": 54.2, "expectedPercent": 53.9}, "horizons": [{"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 3118, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 0.7, "confidenceLow": 47.3, "expectedCount": 1530, "confidenceHigh": 50.8, "expectedPercent": 49.1}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 8147, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 53.7, "expectedCount": 4462, "confidenceHigh": 55.8, "expectedPercent": 54.8}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 69114, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.6, "confidenceLow": 50.3, "expectedCount": 35006, "confidenceHigh": 51.0, "expectedPercent": 50.6}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.1, "probabilityDifference": -5.7}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 3000, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.1, "confidenceLow": 44.9, "expectedCount": 1401, "confidenceHigh": 48.5, "expectedPercent": 46.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 7928, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.1, "confidenceLow": 58.6, "expectedCount": 4731, "confidenceHigh": 60.7, "expectedPercent": 59.7}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 66887, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.9, "confidenceLow": 53.5, "expectedCount": 36027, "confidenceHigh": 54.2, "expectedPercent": 53.9}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -3.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -7.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -2.0, "probabilityDifference": -13.0}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 2802, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.4, "confidenceLow": 40.5, "expectedCount": 1187, "confidenceHigh": 44.2, "expectedPercent": 42.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 7329, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.6, "confidenceLow": 63.4, "expectedCount": 4731, "confidenceHigh": 65.6, "expectedPercent": 64.6}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 62740, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.1, "confidenceLow": 55.2, "expectedCount": 34883, "confidenceHigh": 56.0, "expectedPercent": 55.6}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -7.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -13.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -4.5, "probabilityDifference": -22.2}], "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use accumulation and distribution to frame price location, patience, risk and the quality of a later signal.", "role": "Context and risk control", "avoid": "Do not buy solely because price is in accumulation or sell solely because it is in distribution.", "label": "No standalone edge", "state": "none", "confirm": "Look for a completed move out of the zone and a compatible Market Dynamics signal before treating location as timing.", "headline": "The zones describe location and risk, not a stand-alone reversal trigger", "observed": "At 4 weeks, accumulation was followed by a higher price in 49.1% of cases: -5.7 points versus distribution and -1.5 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was -0.3 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -3.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -7.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -2.0, "probabilityDifference": -13.0}], "buySignalCaseStudy": {"title": "First valid Market Dynamics signal", "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 2.0, "directionalEdgePoints": 9.1}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 1815, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 57.4, "expectedCount": 1084, "confidenceHigh": 62.0, "baselinePercent": 50.6, "expectedPercent": 59.7, "baselineAverageReturn": 0.6}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 5.0, "directionalEdgePoints": 13.9}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 1743, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.9, "confidenceLow": 65.5, "expectedCount": 1181, "confidenceHigh": 69.9, "baselinePercent": 53.9, "expectedPercent": 67.8, "baselineAverageReturn": 1.9}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 9.3, "directionalEdgePoints": 21.6}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 1602, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 13.4, "confidenceLow": 75.0, "expectedCount": 1236, "confidenceHigh": 79.1, "baselinePercent": 55.6, "expectedPercent": 77.2, "baselineAverageReturn": 4.1}], "expectedDirection": "higher"}, "positioningOutcomes": {"accumulation": {"use": "Long positioning", "label": "Accumulation to distribution", "cycles": 648, "thresholds": [{"reached": 556, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 82.9, "confidenceHigh": 88.3, "cyclesObserved": 648, "reachedPercent": 85.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 4.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 11.8, "completedReachedPercent": 94.3}, {"reached": 488, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 71.8, "confidenceHigh": 78.5, "cyclesObserved": 648, "reachedPercent": 75.3, "medianWeeksToReach": 8.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 19.1, "completedReachedPercent": 87.3}, {"reached": 363, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 52.2, "confidenceHigh": 59.8, "cyclesObserved": 648, "reachedPercent": 56.0, "medianWeeksToReach": 18, "averageWeeksToReach": 29.3, "completedReachedPercent": 73.3}, {"reached": 258, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 36.1, "confidenceHigh": 43.6, "cyclesObserved": 648, "reachedPercent": 39.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 23.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 35.7, "completedReachedPercent": 55.0}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Completed cycles experienced an average adverse move of 17.7% before resolution. Position size and confirmation still matter.", "timing": "The condition lasted 9.3 weeks on average before price left accumulation, while the best advance in completed cycles occurred after 63.2 weeks on average.", "finding": "75.3% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 8 weeks); 56.0% reached 20% (median 18 weeks).", "headline": "Accumulation has been most useful as a patient long-positioning window", "application": "Use accumulation to prepare a long case, then require price confirmation before increasing conviction. The condition is a positioning context rather than a stand-alone instruction to buy.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved higher 86.7% of the time across 15 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 348, "repeatedCycles": 15, "completedCycles": 300, "medianAdverseMove": 9.8, "medianCycleReturn": 32.1, "averageAdverseMove": 17.7, "averageCycleReturn": 45.8, "medianFavourableMove": 33.8, "averageFavourableMove": 49.8, "medianGrossOpportunity": 32.1, "averageGrossOpportunity": 45.8, "expectedDirectionPercent": 94.7, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 2.6, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 75.5, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 4.0, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 88.9, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 50.0, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 9.3, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 14, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 91.5, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 285, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 51.0, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 63.2, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 96.7, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 86.7, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 62.1, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 96.3}, "distribution": {"use": "Downside risk and short positioning", "label": "Distribution to accumulation", "cycles": 1036, "thresholds": [{"reached": 636, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 58.4, "confidenceHigh": 64.3, "cyclesObserved": 1036, "reachedPercent": 61.4, "medianWeeksToReach": 7.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 23.4, "completedReachedPercent": 82.8}, {"reached": 489, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 44.2, "confidenceHigh": 50.2, "cyclesObserved": 1036, "reachedPercent": 47.2, "medianWeeksToReach": 16, "averageWeeksToReach": 32.3, "completedReachedPercent": 74.6}, {"reached": 289, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 25.3, "confidenceHigh": 30.7, "cyclesObserved": 1036, "reachedPercent": 27.9, "medianWeeksToReach": 32, "averageWeeksToReach": 44.7, "completedReachedPercent": 52.2}, {"reached": 186, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 15.7, "confidenceHigh": 20.4, "cyclesObserved": 1036, "reachedPercent": 18.0, "medianWeeksToReach": 48.5, "averageWeeksToReach": 54.9, "completedReachedPercent": 38.8}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Price rose by 65.5% on average before completed downside cycles resolved. That adverse path makes unconfirmed or unbounded short positioning unsuitable.", "timing": "Price left distribution after 7.1 weeks on average, but the deepest reversal in completed cycles occurred after 65.5 weeks on average.", "finding": "47.2% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 16 weeks); 27.9% reached 20% (median 32 weeks).", "headline": "Distribution has been a downside warning before it has been a short entry", "application": "Use distribution first to review long exposure, protect gains and watch for downward confirmation. A short case needs price weakness and defined risk; distribution alone is not enough.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved lower 100.0% of the time across 14 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 647, "repeatedCycles": 14, "completedCycles": 389, "medianAdverseMove": 27.9, "medianCycleReturn": -19.3, "averageAdverseMove": 65.5, "averageCycleReturn": -16.2, "medianFavourableMove": 21.4, "averageFavourableMove": 26.6, "medianGrossOpportunity": 19.3, "averageGrossOpportunity": 16.2, "expectedDirectionPercent": 80.2, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 0.25, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 118, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 10.3, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 119.6, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 40.9, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 7.1, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 13, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 76.0, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 375, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 64, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 65.5, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 83.9, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 100.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 78.5, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 100.0}}}, "etf": {"label": "France ETFs", "annual": [{"state": "doesNotSupport", "period": "2020", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 644, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": -5.8, "confidenceLow": 45.1, "expectedCount": 315, "confidenceHigh": 52.8, "expectedPercent": 48.9}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 428, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.3, "confidenceLow": 54.4, "expectedCount": 253, "confidenceHigh": 63.7, "expectedPercent": 59.1}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 1723, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.6, "confidenceLow": 86.1, "expectedCount": 1511, "confidenceHigh": 89.2, "expectedPercent": 87.7}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -9.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -38.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -12.4, "probabilityDifference": -10.2}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 1515, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.2, "confidenceLow": 72.1, "expectedCount": 1126, "confidenceHigh": 76.5, "expectedPercent": 74.3}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 1492, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.2, "confidenceLow": 63.8, "expectedCount": 988, "confidenceHigh": 68.6, "expectedPercent": 66.2}, "state": "supports", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 1723, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.6, "confidenceLow": 86.1, "expectedCount": 1511, "confidenceHigh": 89.2, "expectedPercent": 87.7}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 1.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -13.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -3.4, "probabilityDifference": 8.1}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 1234, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.9, "confidenceLow": 64.9, "expectedCount": 834, "confidenceHigh": 70.1, "expectedPercent": 67.6}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 710, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.0, "confidenceLow": 65.4, "expectedCount": 489, "confidenceHigh": 72.2, "expectedPercent": 68.9}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 1723, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.6, "confidenceLow": 86.1, "expectedCount": 1511, "confidenceHigh": 89.2, "expectedPercent": 87.7}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -5.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -20.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -4.7, "probabilityDifference": -1.3}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 1178, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.2, "confidenceLow": 63.4, "expectedCount": 779, "confidenceHigh": 68.8, "expectedPercent": 66.1}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 717, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.5, "confidenceLow": 83.2, "expectedCount": 616, "confidenceHigh": 88.3, "expectedPercent": 85.9}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 1723, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.6, "confidenceLow": 86.1, "expectedCount": 1511, "confidenceHigh": 89.2, "expectedPercent": 87.7}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -5.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -21.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -4.4, "probabilityDifference": -19.8}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 26, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": -5.9, "confidenceLow": 19.4, "expectedCount": 9, "confidenceHigh": 53.8, "expectedPercent": 34.6}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 243, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.9, "confidenceLow": 87.6, "expectedCount": 223, "confidenceHigh": 94.6, "expectedPercent": 91.8}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 1723, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.6, "confidenceLow": 86.1, "expectedCount": 1511, "confidenceHigh": 89.2, "expectedPercent": 87.7}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -13.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -53.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -12.5, "probabilityDifference": -57.2}], "supports": 1, "doesNotSupport": 4}, {"state": "mixed", "period": "2021", "tested": 4, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 401, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -1.0, "confidenceLow": 36.4, 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"Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.7, "confidenceLow": 60.9, "expectedCount": 2546, "confidenceHigh": 63.9, "expectedPercent": 62.4}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 25297, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 59.9, "expectedCount": 15295, "confidenceHigh": 61.1, "expectedPercent": 60.5}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -6.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.4, "probabilityDifference": -8.8}, {"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 4248, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.6, "confidenceLow": 55.7, "expectedCount": 2431, "confidenceHigh": 58.7, "expectedPercent": 57.2}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 4016, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.3, "confidenceLow": 65.7, "expectedCount": 2699, "confidenceHigh": 68.6, "expectedPercent": 67.2}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 24305, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.0, "confidenceLow": 66.9, "expectedCount": 16397, "confidenceHigh": 68.0, "expectedPercent": 67.5}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -2.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -10.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -2.4, "probabilityDifference": -10.0}, {"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 3920, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.9, "confidenceLow": 62.3, "expectedCount": 2503, "confidenceHigh": 65.3, "expectedPercent": 63.9}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 3687, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.5, "confidenceLow": 69.9, "expectedCount": 2631, "confidenceHigh": 72.8, "expectedPercent": 71.4}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 22556, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.1, "confidenceLow": 70.7, "expectedCount": 16074, "confidenceHigh": 71.8, "expectedPercent": 71.3}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -2.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -7.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -2.2, "probabilityDifference": -7.5}], "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use the state to describe the current backdrop and to rank otherwise similar setups.", "role": "Context and risk control", "avoid": "Do not assume that a positive state must lead to a rise or that a negative state must lead to a fall.", "label": "No standalone edge", "state": "none", "confirm": "Require a change in Market Dynamics, confirmation from price, or a separate qualifying signal before treating the state as actionable.", "headline": "The sign describes the backdrop, not a directional trigger", "observed": "At 26 weeks, positive state was followed by a higher price in 63.9% of cases: -7.5 points versus negative state and -7.4 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was -2.6 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -2.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -10.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -2.4, "probabilityDifference": -10.0}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 13121, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.5, "confidenceLow": 64.0, "expectedCount": 8505, "confidenceHigh": 65.6, "expectedPercent": 64.8}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 12888, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 67.6, "expectedCount": 8813, "confidenceHigh": 69.2, "expectedPercent": 68.4}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 24305, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.0, "confidenceLow": 66.9, "expectedCount": 16397, "confidenceHigh": 68.0, "expectedPercent": 67.5}, "horizons": [{"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 13543, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.2, "confidenceLow": 60.2, "expectedCount": 8264, "confidenceHigh": 61.8, "expectedPercent": 61.0}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 13521, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 59.2, "expectedCount": 8123, "confidenceHigh": 60.9, "expectedPercent": 60.1}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 25297, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 59.9, "expectedCount": 15295, "confidenceHigh": 61.1, "expectedPercent": 60.5}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.2, "probabilityDifference": 0.9}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 13121, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.5, "confidenceLow": 64.0, "expectedCount": 8505, "confidenceHigh": 65.6, "expectedPercent": 64.8}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 12888, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 67.6, "expectedCount": 8813, "confidenceHigh": 69.2, "expectedPercent": 68.4}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 24305, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.0, "confidenceLow": 66.9, "expectedCount": 16397, "confidenceHigh": 68.0, "expectedPercent": 67.5}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -0.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.5, "probabilityDifference": -3.6}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 12286, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.4, "confidenceLow": 70.9, "expectedCount": 8805, "confidenceHigh": 72.5, "expectedPercent": 71.7}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 12194, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.1, "confidenceLow": 70.0, "expectedCount": 8637, "confidenceHigh": 71.6, "expectedPercent": 70.8}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 22556, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.1, "confidenceLow": 70.7, "expectedCount": 16074, "confidenceHigh": 71.8, "expectedPercent": 71.3}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.3, "probabilityDifference": 0.9}], "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use strengthening or weakening to judge whether an existing price move is gaining or losing support.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not act on a one-period change without checking whether the price structure agrees.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Look for persistence in the change and a compatible response from price before increasing conviction.", "headline": "Strengthening and weakening are confirmation, not timing signals alone", "observed": "At 26 weeks, strengthening was followed by a higher price in 71.7% of cases: +0.9 points versus weakening and +0.4 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.3 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.5, "probabilityDifference": -3.6}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 8284, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.0, "confidenceLow": 62.2, "expectedCount": 5243, "confidenceHigh": 64.3, "expectedPercent": 63.3}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 7059, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.4, "confidenceLow": 64.2, "expectedCount": 4608, "confidenceHigh": 66.4, "expectedPercent": 65.3}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 24305, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.0, "confidenceLow": 66.9, "expectedCount": 16397, "confidenceHigh": 68.0, "expectedPercent": 67.5}, "horizons": [{"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 8651, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.4, "confidenceLow": 55.4, "expectedCount": 4883, "confidenceHigh": 57.5, "expectedPercent": 56.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 7202, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.1, "confidenceLow": 59.2, "expectedCount": 4348, "confidenceHigh": 61.5, "expectedPercent": 60.4}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 25297, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 59.9, "expectedCount": 15295, "confidenceHigh": 61.1, "expectedPercent": 60.5}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -4.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.6, "probabilityDifference": -4.0}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 8284, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.0, "confidenceLow": 62.2, "expectedCount": 5243, "confidenceHigh": 64.3, "expectedPercent": 63.3}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 7059, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.4, "confidenceLow": 64.2, "expectedCount": 4608, "confidenceHigh": 66.4, "expectedPercent": 65.3}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 24305, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.0, "confidenceLow": 66.9, "expectedCount": 16397, "confidenceHigh": 68.0, "expectedPercent": 67.5}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -1.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -4.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.0, "probabilityDifference": -2.0}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 7831, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.9, "confidenceLow": 70.3, "expectedCount": 5587, "confidenceHigh": 72.3, "expectedPercent": 71.3}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 6462, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.1, "confidenceLow": 67.9, "expectedCount": 4461, "confidenceHigh": 70.2, "expectedPercent": 69.0}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 22556, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.1, "confidenceLow": 70.7, "expectedCount": 16074, "confidenceHigh": 71.8, "expectedPercent": 71.3}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.2, "probabilityDifference": 2.3}], "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use agreement to distinguish supported trends from moves that lack confirmation.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not confuse alignment with certainty; an aligned market can still reverse.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Check that the advantage remains visible beyond the shortest horizon and repeats across completed years.", "headline": "Agreement describes alignment, but does not select direction by itself", "observed": "At 26 weeks, price and market dynamics positive was followed by a higher price in 71.3% of cases: +2.3 points versus price and market dynamics negative and +0.0 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was -0.2 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -1.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -4.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.0, "probabilityDifference": -2.0}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 7679, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 66.8, "expectedCount": 5211, "confidenceHigh": 68.9, "expectedPercent": 67.9}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 7229, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 60.3, "expectedCount": 4440, "confidenceHigh": 62.5, "expectedPercent": 61.4}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 24305, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.0, "confidenceLow": 66.9, "expectedCount": 16397, "confidenceHigh": 68.0, "expectedPercent": 67.5}, "horizons": [{"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 8077, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.7, "confidenceLow": 60.3, "expectedCount": 4960, "confidenceHigh": 62.5, "expectedPercent": 61.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 7377, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 61.5, "expectedCount": 4616, "confidenceHigh": 63.7, "expectedPercent": 62.6}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 25297, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 59.9, "expectedCount": 15295, "confidenceHigh": 61.1, "expectedPercent": 60.5}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -0.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.3, "probabilityDifference": -1.2}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 7679, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 66.8, "expectedCount": 5211, "confidenceHigh": 68.9, "expectedPercent": 67.9}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 7229, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 60.3, "expectedCount": 4440, "confidenceHigh": 62.5, "expectedPercent": 61.4}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 24305, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.0, "confidenceLow": 66.9, "expectedCount": 16397, "confidenceHigh": 68.0, "expectedPercent": 67.5}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.1, "probabilityDifference": 6.5}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 7251, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.7, "confidenceLow": 72.0, "expectedCount": 5299, "confidenceHigh": 74.1, "expectedPercent": 73.1}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 6559, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.1, "confidenceLow": 68.0, "expectedCount": 4534, "confidenceHigh": 70.2, "expectedPercent": 69.1}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 22556, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.1, "confidenceLow": 70.7, "expectedCount": 16074, "confidenceHigh": 71.8, "expectedPercent": 71.3}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 0.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.6, "probabilityDifference": 4.0}], "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use disagreement to identify prices that may be early or late relative to the underlying market behaviour.", "role": "Primary research filter", "avoid": "Do not assume every divergence must close, or that it must close immediately.", "label": "Strong and persistent", "state": "strong", "confirm": "Wait for price to begin resolving toward Market Dynamics, or for a separate signal to confirm the change.", "headline": "Market Dynamics leading price is an early-change watchlist angle", "observed": "At 12 weeks, market dynamics stronger than price was followed by a higher price in 67.9% of cases: +6.5 points versus price stronger than market dynamics and +0.4 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.3 points.", "bestHorizon": 12, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 4 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 4, "supportingHorizons": 2}, "returnDifference": 0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.1, "probabilityDifference": 6.5}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 392, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.4, "confidenceLow": 52.7, "expectedCount": 226, "confidenceHigh": 62.4, "expectedPercent": 57.7}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 4267, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 64.4, "expectedCount": 2811, "confidenceHigh": 67.3, "expectedPercent": 65.9}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 24305, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.0, "confidenceLow": 66.9, "expectedCount": 16397, "confidenceHigh": 68.0, "expectedPercent": 67.5}, "horizons": [{"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 407, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.2, "confidenceLow": 53.6, "expectedCount": 238, "confidenceHigh": 63.2, "expectedPercent": 58.5}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 4395, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 60.6, "expectedCount": 2728, "confidenceHigh": 63.5, "expectedPercent": 62.1}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 25297, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 59.9, "expectedCount": 15295, "confidenceHigh": 61.1, "expectedPercent": 60.5}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": 0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.2, "probabilityDifference": -3.6}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 392, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.4, "confidenceLow": 52.7, "expectedCount": 226, "confidenceHigh": 62.4, "expectedPercent": 57.7}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 4267, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 64.4, "expectedCount": 2811, "confidenceHigh": 67.3, "expectedPercent": 65.9}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 24305, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.0, "confidenceLow": 66.9, "expectedCount": 16397, "confidenceHigh": 68.0, "expectedPercent": 67.5}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": 0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -9.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.6, "probabilityDifference": -8.2}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 355, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.8, "confidenceLow": 50.0, "expectedCount": 196, "confidenceHigh": 60.3, "expectedPercent": 55.2}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 3865, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.6, "confidenceLow": 71.0, "expectedCount": 2799, "confidenceHigh": 73.8, "expectedPercent": 72.4}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 22556, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.1, "confidenceLow": 70.7, "expectedCount": 16074, "confidenceHigh": 71.8, "expectedPercent": 71.3}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -1.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -16.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -2.3, "probabilityDifference": -17.2}], "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use accumulation and distribution to frame price location, patience, risk and the quality of a later signal.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not buy solely because price is in accumulation or sell solely because it is in distribution.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Look for a completed move out of the zone and a compatible Market Dynamics signal before treating location as timing.", "headline": "The zones describe location and risk, not a stand-alone reversal trigger", "observed": "At 4 weeks, accumulation was followed by a higher price in 58.5% of cases: -3.6 points versus distribution and -2.0 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.3 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 6 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 6, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": 0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -9.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.6, "probabilityDifference": -8.2}], "buySignalCaseStudy": {"title": "First valid Market Dynamics signal", "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 0.7, "directionalEdgePoints": 11.2}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 774, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 68.4, "expectedCount": 555, "confidenceHigh": 74.8, "baselinePercent": 60.5, "expectedPercent": 71.7, "baselineAverageReturn": 1.0}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 2.5, "directionalEdgePoints": 14.1}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 754, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.5, "confidenceLow": 78.6, "expectedCount": 615, "confidenceHigh": 84.2, "baselinePercent": 67.5, "expectedPercent": 81.6, "baselineAverageReturn": 3.0}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 5.7, "directionalEdgePoints": 19.9}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 719, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 11.8, "confidenceLow": 88.9, "expectedCount": 656, "confidenceHigh": 93.1, "baselinePercent": 71.3, "expectedPercent": 91.2, "baselineAverageReturn": 6.1}], "expectedDirection": "higher"}, "positioningOutcomes": {"accumulation": {"use": "Long positioning", "label": "Accumulation to distribution", "cycles": 146, "thresholds": [{"reached": 129, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 82.1, "confidenceHigh": 92.6, "cyclesObserved": 146, "reachedPercent": 88.4, "medianWeeksToReach": 5, "averageWeeksToReach": 12.2, "completedReachedPercent": 90.4}, {"reached": 108, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 66.3, "confidenceHigh": 80.4, "cyclesObserved": 146, "reachedPercent": 74.0, "medianWeeksToReach": 9.5, "averageWeeksToReach": 19.5, "completedReachedPercent": 78.9}, {"reached": 68, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 38.7, "confidenceHigh": 54.7, "cyclesObserved": 146, "reachedPercent": 46.6, "medianWeeksToReach": 24.5, "averageWeeksToReach": 32.2, "completedReachedPercent": 52.6}, {"reached": 33, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 16.6, "confidenceHigh": 30.0, "cyclesObserved": 146, "reachedPercent": 22.6, "medianWeeksToReach": 23, "averageWeeksToReach": 36.9, "completedReachedPercent": 23.7}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Completed cycles experienced an average adverse move of 7.5% before resolution. Position size and confirmation still matter.", "timing": "The condition lasted 7.7 weeks on average before price left accumulation, while the best advance in completed cycles occurred after 51.8 weeks on average.", "finding": "74.0% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 9.5 weeks); 46.6% reached 20% (median 24.5 weeks).", "headline": "Accumulation has been most useful as a patient long-positioning window", "application": "Use accumulation to prepare a long case, then require price confirmation before increasing conviction. The condition is a positioning context rather than a stand-alone instruction to buy.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved higher 50.0% of the time across 4 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 32, "repeatedCycles": 4, "completedCycles": 114, "medianAdverseMove": 1.7, "medianCycleReturn": 21.0, "averageAdverseMove": 7.5, "averageCycleReturn": 25.5, "medianFavourableMove": 21.1, "averageFavourableMove": 26.1, "medianGrossOpportunity": 21.0, "averageGrossOpportunity": 25.5, "expectedDirectionPercent": 95.6, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 3.41, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 44.5, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 0.6, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 63.2, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 4.3, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 7.7, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 4, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 90.1, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 110, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 37.5, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 51.8, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 98.1, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 50.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 15.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 85.0}, "distribution": {"use": "Downside risk and short positioning", "label": "Distribution to accumulation", "cycles": 497, "thresholds": [{"reached": 220, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 40.0, "confidenceHigh": 48.7, "cyclesObserved": 497, "reachedPercent": 44.3, "medianWeeksToReach": 12.5, "averageWeeksToReach": 29.8, "completedReachedPercent": 79.3}, {"reached": 137, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 23.8, "confidenceHigh": 31.7, "cyclesObserved": 497, "reachedPercent": 27.6, "medianWeeksToReach": 27, "averageWeeksToReach": 37.2, "completedReachedPercent": 66.7}, {"reached": 39, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 5.8, "confidenceHigh": 10.5, "cyclesObserved": 497, "reachedPercent": 7.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 37, "averageWeeksToReach": 43.0, "completedReachedPercent": 20.7}, {"reached": 15, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 1.8, "confidenceHigh": 4.9, "cyclesObserved": 497, "reachedPercent": 3.0, "medianWeeksToReach": 45, "averageWeeksToReach": 45.2, "completedReachedPercent": 13.8}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Price rose by 20.6% on average before completed downside cycles resolved. That adverse path makes unconfirmed or unbounded short positioning unsuitable.", "timing": "Price left distribution after 8.8 weeks on average, but the deepest reversal in completed cycles occurred after 57.7 weeks on average.", "finding": "27.6% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 27 weeks); 7.8% reached 20% (median 37 weeks).", "headline": "Distribution has been a downside warning before it has been a short entry", "application": "Use distribution first to review long exposure, protect gains and watch for downward confirmation. A short case needs price weakness and defined risk; distribution alone is not enough.", "repeatability": "More repeat cycles are needed before persistence at later price levels can be judged."}, "activeCycles": 410, "repeatedCycles": 0, "completedCycles": 87, "medianAdverseMove": 11.1, "medianCycleReturn": -12.6, "averageAdverseMove": 20.6, "averageCycleReturn": -13.0, "medianFavourableMove": 13.4, "averageFavourableMove": 16.2, "medianGrossOpportunity": 12.6, "averageGrossOpportunity": 13.0, "expectedDirectionPercent": 88.5, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 0.63, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 74, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 3.2, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 95.6, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": null, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 8.8, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 0, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 80.1, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 87, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 56, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 57.7, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 93.6, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": null, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": null, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": null}}}, "equity": {"label": "France equities", "annual": [{"state": "doesNotSupport", "period": "2020", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 1298, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.8, "confidenceLow": 39.3, "expectedCount": 544, "confidenceHigh": 44.6, "expectedPercent": 41.9}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1094, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 4.8, "confidenceLow": 47.1, "expectedCount": 548, "confidenceHigh": 53.0, "expectedPercent": 50.1}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 3496, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 14.4, "confidenceLow": 63.0, "expectedCount": 2258, "confidenceHigh": 66.2, "expectedPercent": 64.6}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -4.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -22.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -13.6, "probabilityDifference": -8.2}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 3070, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.9, "confidenceLow": 54.4, "expectedCount": 1723, "confidenceHigh": 57.9, "expectedPercent": 56.1}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 3096, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.0, "confidenceLow": 52.1, "expectedCount": 1669, "confidenceHigh": 55.7, "expectedPercent": 53.9}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 3496, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 14.4, "confidenceLow": 63.0, "expectedCount": 2258, "confidenceHigh": 66.2, "expectedPercent": 64.6}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -8.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -5.5, "probabilityDifference": 2.2}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 2062, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.0, "confidenceLow": 51.2, "expectedCount": 1101, "confidenceHigh": 55.5, "expectedPercent": 53.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1728, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 10.3, "confidenceLow": 58.3, "expectedCount": 1048, "confidenceHigh": 62.9, "expectedPercent": 60.6}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 3496, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 14.4, "confidenceLow": 63.0, "expectedCount": 2258, "confidenceHigh": 66.2, "expectedPercent": 64.6}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -1.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -11.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -5.4, "probabilityDifference": -7.2}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 1877, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 10.0, "confidenceLow": 52.9, "expectedCount": 1036, "confidenceHigh": 57.4, "expectedPercent": 55.2}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1668, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 11.9, "confidenceLow": 59.6, "expectedCount": 1033, "confidenceHigh": 64.2, "expectedPercent": 61.9}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 3496, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 14.4, "confidenceLow": 63.0, "expectedCount": 2258, "confidenceHigh": 66.2, "expectedPercent": 64.6}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -1.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -9.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -4.4, "probabilityDifference": -6.7}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 186, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 12.5, "confidenceLow": 56.3, "expectedCount": 118, "confidenceHigh": 70.0, "expectedPercent": 63.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 340, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 17.9, "confidenceLow": 63.7, "expectedCount": 234, "confidenceHigh": 73.5, "expectedPercent": 68.8}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 3496, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 14.4, "confidenceLow": 63.0, "expectedCount": 2258, "confidenceHigh": 66.2, "expectedPercent": 64.6}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -5.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.9, "probabilityDifference": -5.4}], "supports": 0, "doesNotSupport": 4}, {"state": "doesNotSupport", "period": "2021", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 807, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.4, "confidenceLow": 41.1, "expectedCount": 359, "confidenceHigh": 47.9, "expectedPercent": 44.5}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1025, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 45.1, "expectedCount": 494, "confidenceHigh": 51.3, "expectedPercent": 48.2}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 6608, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 47.0, "expectedCount": 3185, "confidenceHigh": 49.4, "expectedPercent": 48.2}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -1.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -2.1, "probabilityDifference": -3.7}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 3352, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 2.1, "confidenceLow": 46.4, "expectedCount": 1612, "confidenceHigh": 49.8, "expectedPercent": 48.1}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 3286, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.1, "confidenceLow": 49.4, "expectedCount": 1678, "confidenceHigh": 52.8, "expectedPercent": 51.1}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 6608, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 47.0, "expectedCount": 3185, "confidenceHigh": 49.4, "expectedPercent": 48.2}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.4, "probabilityDifference": -3.0}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 2001, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.7, "confidenceLow": 46.0, "expectedCount": 964, "confidenceHigh": 50.4, "expectedPercent": 48.2}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 2087, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.2, "confidenceLow": 45.8, "expectedCount": 1000, "confidenceHigh": 50.1, "expectedPercent": 47.9}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 6608, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 47.0, "expectedCount": 3185, "confidenceHigh": 49.4, "expectedPercent": 48.2}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 1.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.0, "probabilityDifference": 0.3}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 1913, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.0, "confidenceLow": 52.2, "expectedCount": 1042, "confidenceHigh": 56.7, "expectedPercent": 54.5}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 2080, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.3, "confidenceLow": 42.2, "expectedCount": 922, "confidenceHigh": 46.5, "expectedPercent": 44.3}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 6608, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 47.0, "expectedCount": 3185, "confidenceHigh": 49.4, "expectedPercent": 48.2}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 2.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 6.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.3, "probabilityDifference": 10.2}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 142, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -5.4, "confidenceLow": 31.1, "expectedCount": 55, "confidenceHigh": 46.9, "expectedPercent": 38.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 972, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.3, "confidenceLow": 50.4, "expectedCount": 520, "confidenceHigh": 56.6, "expectedPercent": 53.5}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 6608, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 47.0, "expectedCount": 3185, "confidenceHigh": 49.4, "expectedPercent": 48.2}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -9.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -9.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -7.1, "probabilityDifference": -14.8}], "supports": 1, "doesNotSupport": 3}, {"state": "doesNotSupport", "period": "2022", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 1162, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -3.0, "confidenceLow": 36.2, "expectedCount": 453, "confidenceHigh": 41.8, "expectedPercent": 39.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1030, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -1.0, "confidenceLow": 42.7, "expectedCount": 471, "confidenceHigh": 48.8, "expectedPercent": 45.7}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 6842, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -1.5, "confidenceLow": 41.7, "expectedCount": 2932, "confidenceHigh": 44.0, "expectedPercent": 42.9}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -2.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.5, "probabilityDifference": -6.7}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 3398, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -1.9, "confidenceLow": 39.7, "expectedCount": 1405, "confidenceHigh": 43.0, "expectedPercent": 41.3}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 3426, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -1.0, "confidenceLow": 43.0, "expectedCount": 1530, "confidenceHigh": 46.3, "expectedPercent": 44.7}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 6842, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -1.5, "confidenceLow": 41.7, "expectedCount": 2932, "confidenceHigh": 44.0, "expectedPercent": 42.9}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -0.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.4, "probabilityDifference": -3.4}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 1795, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -3.3, "confidenceLow": 35.5, "expectedCount": 677, "confidenceHigh": 40.0, "expectedPercent": 37.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 2411, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -1.5, "confidenceLow": 41.6, "expectedCount": 1051, "confidenceHigh": 45.6, "expectedPercent": 43.6}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 6842, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -1.5, "confidenceLow": 41.7, "expectedCount": 2932, "confidenceHigh": 44.0, "expectedPercent": 42.9}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -1.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -5.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.8, "probabilityDifference": -5.9}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 1777, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -1.5, "confidenceLow": 41.3, "expectedCount": 774, "confidenceHigh": 45.9, "expectedPercent": 43.6}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 2242, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -2.4, "confidenceLow": 36.9, "expectedCount": 873, "confidenceHigh": 41.0, "expectedPercent": 38.9}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 6842, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -1.5, "confidenceLow": 41.7, "expectedCount": 2932, "confidenceHigh": 44.0, "expectedPercent": 42.9}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 0.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.0, "probabilityDifference": 4.7}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 402, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -4.1, "confidenceLow": 38.0, "expectedCount": 172, "confidenceHigh": 47.7, "expectedPercent": 42.8}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 440, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -1.0, "confidenceLow": 35.1, "expectedCount": 174, "confidenceHigh": 44.2, "expectedPercent": 39.5}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 6842, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -1.5, "confidenceLow": 41.7, "expectedCount": 2932, "confidenceHigh": 44.0, "expectedPercent": 42.9}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -3.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -2.6, "probabilityDifference": 3.3}], "supports": 1, "doesNotSupport": 3}, {"state": "doesNotSupport", "period": "2023", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 1008, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -3.1, "confidenceLow": 37.5, "expectedCount": 408, "confidenceHigh": 43.5, "expectedPercent": 40.5}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1042, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -1.6, "confidenceLow": 41.2, "expectedCount": 460, "confidenceHigh": 47.2, "expectedPercent": 44.1}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 7178, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -2.4, "confidenceLow": 39.6, "expectedCount": 2923, "confidenceHigh": 41.9, "expectedPercent": 40.7}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -1.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.7, "probabilityDifference": -3.6}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 3458, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -2.0, "confidenceLow": 39.2, "expectedCount": 1411, "confidenceHigh": 42.5, "expectedPercent": 40.8}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 3401, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -2.9, "confidenceLow": 38.7, "expectedCount": 1372, "confidenceHigh": 42.0, "expectedPercent": 40.3}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 7178, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -2.4, "confidenceLow": 39.6, "expectedCount": 2923, "confidenceHigh": 41.9, "expectedPercent": 40.7}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.4, "probabilityDifference": 0.5}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 2022, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -3.9, "confidenceLow": 36.9, "expectedCount": 789, "confidenceHigh": 41.2, "expectedPercent": 39.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 2252, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -1.4, "confidenceLow": 42.5, "expectedCount": 1003, "confidenceHigh": 46.6, "expectedPercent": 44.5}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 7178, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -2.4, "confidenceLow": 39.6, "expectedCount": 2923, "confidenceHigh": 41.9, "expectedPercent": 40.7}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -2.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.5, "probabilityDifference": -5.5}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 1909, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -4.1, "confidenceLow": 35.5, "expectedCount": 718, "confidenceHigh": 39.8, "expectedPercent": 37.6}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 2201, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -1.3, "confidenceLow": 39.0, "expectedCount": 904, "confidenceHigh": 43.1, "expectedPercent": 41.1}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 7178, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -2.4, "confidenceLow": 39.6, "expectedCount": 2923, "confidenceHigh": 41.9, "expectedPercent": 40.7}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -2.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.7, "probabilityDifference": -3.5}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 480, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -3.0, "confidenceLow": 36.5, "expectedCount": 196, "confidenceHigh": 45.3, "expectedPercent": 40.8}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 522, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 44.6, "expectedCount": 255, "confidenceHigh": 53.1, "expectedPercent": 48.9}, 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The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was -1.8 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -2.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -5.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -2.0, "probabilityDifference": -6.9}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 22167, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 44.6, "expectedCount": 10035, "confidenceHigh": 45.9, "expectedPercent": 45.3}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 22056, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.6, "confidenceLow": 46.3, "expectedCount": 10355, "confidenceHigh": 47.6, "expectedPercent": 46.9}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 42582, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 45.6, "expectedCount": 19630, "confidenceHigh": 46.6, "expectedPercent": 46.1}, "horizons": [{"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 22762, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.5, "confidenceLow": 43.6, "expectedCount": 10069, "confidenceHigh": 44.9, "expectedPercent": 44.2}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 22737, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.4, "confidenceLow": 45.5, "expectedCount": 10483, "confidenceHigh": 46.8, "expectedPercent": 46.1}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 43817, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.3, "confidenceLow": 44.5, "expectedCount": 19711, "confidenceHigh": 45.5, "expectedPercent": 45.0}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.2, "probabilityDifference": -1.9}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 22167, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 44.6, "expectedCount": 10035, "confidenceHigh": 45.9, "expectedPercent": 45.3}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 22056, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.6, "confidenceLow": 46.3, "expectedCount": 10355, "confidenceHigh": 47.6, "expectedPercent": 46.9}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 42582, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 45.6, "expectedCount": 19630, "confidenceHigh": 46.6, "expectedPercent": 46.1}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.0, "probabilityDifference": -1.6}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 21035, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 4.2, "confidenceLow": 46.1, "expectedCount": 9835, "confidenceHigh": 47.4, "expectedPercent": 46.8}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 21050, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 4.5, "confidenceLow": 47.2, "expectedCount": 10079, "confidenceHigh": 48.6, "expectedPercent": 47.9}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 40184, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 3.0, "confidenceLow": 46.3, "expectedCount": 18809, "confidenceHigh": 47.3, "expectedPercent": 46.8}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.2, "probabilityDifference": -1.1}], "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use strengthening or weakening to judge whether an existing price move is gaining or losing support.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not act on a one-period change without checking whether the price structure agrees.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Look for persistence in the change and a compatible response from price before increasing conviction.", "headline": "Strengthening and weakening are confirmation, not timing signals alone", "observed": "At 4 weeks, strengthening was followed by a higher price in 44.2% of cases: -1.9 points versus weakening and -0.8 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.1 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.0, "probabilityDifference": -1.6}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 13447, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.8, "confidenceLow": 42.9, "expectedCount": 5877, "confidenceHigh": 44.5, "expectedPercent": 43.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 14252, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.5, "confidenceLow": 47.5, "expectedCount": 6893, "confidenceHigh": 49.2, "expectedPercent": 48.4}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 42582, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 45.6, "expectedCount": 19630, "confidenceHigh": 46.6, "expectedPercent": 46.1}, "horizons": [{"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 13812, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.1, "confidenceLow": 41.1, "expectedCount": 5796, "confidenceHigh": 42.8, "expectedPercent": 42.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 14683, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.8, "confidenceLow": 47.2, "expectedCount": 7055, "confidenceHigh": 48.9, "expectedPercent": 48.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 43817, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.3, "confidenceLow": 44.5, "expectedCount": 19711, "confidenceHigh": 45.5, "expectedPercent": 45.0}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.9, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.4, "probabilityDifference": -6.0}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 13447, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.8, "confidenceLow": 42.9, "expectedCount": 5877, "confidenceHigh": 44.5, "expectedPercent": 43.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 14252, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.5, "confidenceLow": 47.5, "expectedCount": 6893, "confidenceHigh": 49.2, "expectedPercent": 48.4}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 42582, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 45.6, "expectedCount": 19630, "confidenceHigh": 46.6, "expectedPercent": 46.1}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.5, "probabilityDifference": -4.7}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 12813, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 3.7, "confidenceLow": 46.0, "expectedCount": 6004, "confidenceHigh": 47.7, "expectedPercent": 46.9}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 13560, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 3.6, "confidenceLow": 46.8, "expectedCount": 6463, "confidenceHigh": 48.5, "expectedPercent": 47.7}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 40184, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 3.0, "confidenceLow": 46.3, "expectedCount": 18809, "confidenceHigh": 47.3, "expectedPercent": 46.8}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.7, "probabilityDifference": -0.8}], "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use agreement to distinguish supported trends from moves that lack confirmation.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not confuse alignment with certainty; an aligned market can still reverse.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Check that the advantage remains visible beyond the shortest horizon and repeats across completed years.", "headline": "Agreement describes alignment, but does not select direction by itself", "observed": "At 26 weeks, price and market dynamics positive was followed by a higher price in 46.9% of cases: -0.8 points versus price and market dynamics negative and +0.1 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.1 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.5, "probabilityDifference": -4.7}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 12895, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.4, "confidenceLow": 46.2, "expectedCount": 6063, "confidenceHigh": 47.9, "expectedPercent": 47.0}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 13693, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.6, "confidenceLow": 44.1, "expectedCount": 6159, "confidenceHigh": 45.8, "expectedPercent": 45.0}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 42582, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 45.6, "expectedCount": 19630, "confidenceHigh": 46.6, "expectedPercent": 46.1}, "horizons": [{"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 13326, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.1, "confidenceLow": 45.6, "expectedCount": 6196, "confidenceHigh": 47.3, "expectedPercent": 46.5}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 14049, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.5, "confidenceLow": 43.1, "expectedCount": 6175, "confidenceHigh": 44.8, "expectedPercent": 44.0}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 43817, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.3, "confidenceLow": 44.5, "expectedCount": 19711, "confidenceHigh": 45.5, "expectedPercent": 45.0}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -0.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.2, "probabilityDifference": 2.5}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 12895, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.4, "confidenceLow": 46.2, "expectedCount": 6063, "confidenceHigh": 47.9, "expectedPercent": 47.0}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 13693, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.6, "confidenceLow": 44.1, "expectedCount": 6159, "confidenceHigh": 45.8, "expectedPercent": 45.0}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 42582, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 45.6, "expectedCount": 19630, "confidenceHigh": 46.6, "expectedPercent": 46.1}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.1, "probabilityDifference": 2.0}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 12315, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 3.9, "confidenceLow": 47.4, "expectedCount": 5943, "confidenceHigh": 49.1, "expectedPercent": 48.3}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 12979, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 45.1, "expectedCount": 5971, "confidenceHigh": 46.9, "expectedPercent": 46.0}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 40184, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 3.0, "confidenceLow": 46.3, "expectedCount": 18809, "confidenceHigh": 47.3, "expectedPercent": 46.8}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 1.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.9, "probabilityDifference": 2.3}], "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use disagreement to identify prices that may be early or late relative to the underlying market behaviour.", "role": "Conditional research angle", "avoid": "Do not assume every divergence must close, or that it must close immediately.", "label": "Horizon-specific", "state": "selective", "confirm": "Wait for price to begin resolving toward Market Dynamics, or for a separate signal to confirm the change.", "headline": "Market Dynamics leading price is an early-change watchlist angle", "observed": "At 26 weeks, market dynamics stronger than price was followed by a higher price in 48.3% of cases: +2.3 points versus price stronger than market dynamics and +1.5 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +1.0 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 2 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 2, "supportingHorizons": 1}, "returnDifference": -0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.1, "probabilityDifference": 2.0}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 2608, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.5, "confidenceLow": 43.2, "expectedCount": 1175, "confidenceHigh": 47.0, "expectedPercent": 45.1}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 3661, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.0, "confidenceLow": 50.8, "expectedCount": 1920, "confidenceHigh": 54.1, "expectedPercent": 52.4}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 42582, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 45.6, "expectedCount": 19630, "confidenceHigh": 46.6, "expectedPercent": 46.1}, "horizons": [{"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 2711, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.6, "confidenceLow": 45.8, "expectedCount": 1292, "confidenceHigh": 49.5, "expectedPercent": 47.7}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 3752, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.1, "confidenceLow": 44.6, "expectedCount": 1734, "confidenceHigh": 47.8, "expectedPercent": 46.2}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 43817, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.3, "confidenceLow": 44.5, "expectedCount": 19711, "confidenceHigh": 45.5, "expectedPercent": 45.0}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -0.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.3, "probabilityDifference": 1.5}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 2608, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.5, "confidenceLow": 43.2, "expectedCount": 1175, "confidenceHigh": 47.0, "expectedPercent": 45.1}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 3661, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.0, "confidenceLow": 50.8, "expectedCount": 1920, "confidenceHigh": 54.1, "expectedPercent": 52.4}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 42582, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 45.6, "expectedCount": 19630, "confidenceHigh": 46.6, "expectedPercent": 46.1}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -4.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.8, "probabilityDifference": -7.3}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 2447, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -1.0, "confidenceLow": 38.6, "expectedCount": 991, "confidenceHigh": 42.5, "expectedPercent": 40.5}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 3464, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.7, "confidenceLow": 54.1, "expectedCount": 1932, "confidenceHigh": 57.4, "expectedPercent": 55.8}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 40184, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 3.0, "confidenceLow": 46.3, "expectedCount": 18809, "confidenceHigh": 47.3, "expectedPercent": 46.8}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -8.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -6.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -4.0, "probabilityDifference": -15.3}], "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use accumulation and distribution to frame price location, patience, risk and the quality of a later signal.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not buy solely because price is in accumulation or sell solely because it is in distribution.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Look for a completed move out of the zone and a compatible Market Dynamics signal before treating location as timing.", "headline": "The zones describe location and risk, not a stand-alone reversal trigger", "observed": "At 4 weeks, accumulation was followed by a higher price in 47.7% of cases: +1.5 points versus distribution and +2.7 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was -0.5 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -4.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.8, "probabilityDifference": -7.3}], "buySignalCaseStudy": {"title": "First valid Market Dynamics signal", "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 3.0, "directionalEdgePoints": 5.8}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 1041, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 3.3, "confidenceLow": 47.8, "expectedCount": 529, "confidenceHigh": 53.8, "baselinePercent": 45.0, "expectedPercent": 50.8, "baselineAverageReturn": 0.3}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 6.7, "directionalEdgePoints": 11.1}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 989, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.0, "confidenceLow": 54.1, "expectedCount": 566, "confidenceHigh": 60.3, "baselinePercent": 46.1, "expectedPercent": 57.2, "baselineAverageReturn": 1.3}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 11.8, "directionalEdgePoints": 18.9}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 883, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 14.8, "confidenceLow": 62.5, "expectedCount": 580, "confidenceHigh": 68.7, "baselinePercent": 46.8, "expectedPercent": 65.7, "baselineAverageReturn": 3.0}], "expectedDirection": "higher"}, "positioningOutcomes": {"accumulation": {"use": "Long positioning", "label": "Accumulation to distribution", "cycles": 502, "thresholds": [{"reached": 427, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 81.7, "confidenceHigh": 87.9, "cyclesObserved": 502, "reachedPercent": 85.1, "medianWeeksToReach": 4, "averageWeeksToReach": 11.7, "completedReachedPercent": 96.8}, {"reached": 380, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 71.8, "confidenceHigh": 79.2, "cyclesObserved": 502, "reachedPercent": 75.7, "medianWeeksToReach": 7.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 19.0, "completedReachedPercent": 92.5}, {"reached": 295, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 54.4, "confidenceHigh": 63.0, "cyclesObserved": 502, "reachedPercent": 58.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 16, "averageWeeksToReach": 28.7, "completedReachedPercent": 86.0}, {"reached": 225, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 40.5, "confidenceHigh": 49.2, "cyclesObserved": 502, "reachedPercent": 44.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 23, "averageWeeksToReach": 35.5, "completedReachedPercent": 74.2}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Completed cycles experienced an average adverse move of 23.9% before resolution. Position size and confirmation still matter.", "timing": "The condition lasted 9.6 weeks on average before price left accumulation, while the best advance in completed cycles occurred after 70.2 weeks on average.", "finding": "75.7% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 7 weeks); 58.8% reached 20% (median 16 weeks).", "headline": "Accumulation has been most useful as a patient long-positioning window", "application": "Use accumulation to prepare a long case, then require price confirmation before increasing conviction. The condition is a positioning context rather than a stand-alone instruction to buy.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved higher 100.0% of the time across 11 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 316, "repeatedCycles": 11, "completedCycles": 186, "medianAdverseMove": 15.1, "medianCycleReturn": 48.5, "averageAdverseMove": 23.9, "averageCycleReturn": 58.2, "medianFavourableMove": 49.8, "averageFavourableMove": 64.3, "medianGrossOpportunity": 48.5, "averageGrossOpportunity": 58.2, "expectedDirectionPercent": 94.1, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 2.44, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 94.0, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 6.1, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 104.7, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 66.6, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 9.6, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 10, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 89.7, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 175, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 64.0, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 70.2, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 96.7, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 100.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 74.1, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 100.0}, "distribution": {"use": "Downside risk and short positioning", "label": "Distribution to accumulation", "cycles": 539, "thresholds": [{"reached": 416, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 73.5, "confidenceHigh": 80.5, "cyclesObserved": 539, "reachedPercent": 77.2, "medianWeeksToReach": 5.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 20.1, "completedReachedPercent": 83.8}, {"reached": 352, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 61.2, "confidenceHigh": 69.2, "cyclesObserved": 539, "reachedPercent": 65.3, "medianWeeksToReach": 12.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 30.3, "completedReachedPercent": 76.8}, {"reached": 250, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 42.2, "confidenceHigh": 50.6, "cyclesObserved": 539, "reachedPercent": 46.4, "medianWeeksToReach": 31.5, "averageWeeksToReach": 44.9, "completedReachedPercent": 61.3}, {"reached": 171, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 27.9, "confidenceHigh": 35.8, "cyclesObserved": 539, "reachedPercent": 31.7, "medianWeeksToReach": 49, "averageWeeksToReach": 55.7, "completedReachedPercent": 46.0}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Price rose by 78.5% on average before completed downside cycles resolved. That adverse path makes unconfirmed or unbounded short positioning unsuitable.", "timing": "Price left distribution after 5.2 weeks on average, but the deepest reversal in completed cycles occurred after 67.8 weeks on average.", "finding": "65.3% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 12 weeks); 46.4% reached 20% (median 31.5 weeks).", "headline": "Distribution has been a downside warning before it has been a short entry", "application": "Use distribution first to review long exposure, protect gains and watch for downward confirmation. A short case needs price weakness and defined risk; distribution alone is not enough.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved lower 100.0% of the time across 14 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 237, "repeatedCycles": 14, "completedCycles": 302, "medianAdverseMove": 37.4, "medianCycleReturn": -26.0, "averageAdverseMove": 78.5, "averageCycleReturn": -17.2, "medianFavourableMove": 27.2, "averageFavourableMove": 29.5, "medianGrossOpportunity": 26.0, "averageGrossOpportunity": 17.2, "expectedDirectionPercent": 77.8, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 0.22, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 124.0, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 12.4, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 126.6, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 40.9, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 5.2, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 13, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 72.8, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 288, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 66.5, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 67.8, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 82.1, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 100.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 78.5, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 100.0}}}}}, "methodBoundary": "Public outcomes and sample sizes only. Proprietary signal construction is not disclosed."}