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The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +1.1 points.", "bestHorizon": 12, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 3 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 3, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": 1.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.0, "probabilityDifference": 1.5}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 42586, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.9, "confidenceLow": 54.0, "expectedCount": 23219, "confidenceHigh": 55.0, "expectedPercent": 54.5}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 43533, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.2, "confidenceLow": 53.6, "expectedCount": 23542, "confidenceHigh": 54.5, "expectedPercent": 54.1}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 136905, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.5, "confidenceLow": 54.0, "expectedCount": 74249, "confidenceHigh": 54.5, "expectedPercent": 54.2}, "horizons": [{"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 44351, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 50.0, "expectedCount": 22365, "confidenceHigh": 50.9, "expectedPercent": 50.4}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 44296, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 48.9, "expectedCount": 21846, "confidenceHigh": 49.8, "expectedPercent": 49.3}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 141173, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.4, "confidenceLow": 50.2, "expectedCount": 71192, "confidenceHigh": 50.7, "expectedPercent": 50.4}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 1.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.5, "probabilityDifference": 1.1}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 42586, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.9, "confidenceLow": 54.0, "expectedCount": 23219, "confidenceHigh": 55.0, "expectedPercent": 54.5}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 43533, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.2, "confidenceLow": 53.6, "expectedCount": 23542, "confidenceHigh": 54.5, "expectedPercent": 54.1}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 136905, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.5, "confidenceLow": 54.0, "expectedCount": 74249, "confidenceHigh": 54.5, "expectedPercent": 54.2}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 0.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.4, "probabilityDifference": 0.4}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 40047, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 18.4, "confidenceLow": 58.3, "expectedCount": 23538, "confidenceHigh": 59.3, "expectedPercent": 58.8}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 41676, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 15.2, "confidenceLow": 56.3, "expectedCount": 23663, "confidenceHigh": 57.3, "expectedPercent": 56.8}, "state": "supports", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 128760, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 16.7, "confidenceLow": 56.4, "expectedCount": 72966, "confidenceHigh": 56.9, "expectedPercent": 56.7}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 3.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.7, "probabilityDifference": 2.0}], "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use agreement to distinguish supported trends from moves that lack confirmation.", "role": "Conditional research angle", "avoid": "Do not confuse alignment with certainty; an aligned market can still reverse.", "label": "Horizon-specific", "state": "selective", "confirm": "Check that the advantage remains visible beyond the shortest horizon and repeats across completed years.", "headline": "Agreement improves conviction at the horizons where it persists", "observed": "At 26 weeks, price and market dynamics positive was followed by a higher price in 58.8% of cases: +2.0 points versus price and market dynamics negative and +2.1 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +3.2 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 1}, "returnDifference": 0.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.4, "probabilityDifference": 0.4}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 40424, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.1, "confidenceLow": 51.9, "expectedCount": 21167, "confidenceHigh": 52.8, "expectedPercent": 52.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 42181, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.5, "confidenceLow": 55.1, "expectedCount": 23445, "confidenceHigh": 56.1, "expectedPercent": 55.6}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 136905, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.5, "confidenceLow": 54.0, "expectedCount": 74249, "confidenceHigh": 54.5, "expectedPercent": 54.2}, "horizons": [{"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 42322, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.4, "confidenceLow": 47.6, "expectedCount": 20350, "confidenceHigh": 48.6, "expectedPercent": 48.1}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 42718, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.8, "confidenceLow": 50.5, "expectedCount": 21776, "confidenceHigh": 51.5, "expectedPercent": 51.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 141173, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.4, "confidenceLow": 50.2, "expectedCount": 71192, "confidenceHigh": 50.7, "expectedPercent": 50.4}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -1.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.0, "probabilityDifference": -2.9}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 40424, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.1, "confidenceLow": 51.9, "expectedCount": 21167, "confidenceHigh": 52.8, "expectedPercent": 52.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 42181, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.5, "confidenceLow": 55.1, "expectedCount": 23445, "confidenceHigh": 56.1, "expectedPercent": 55.6}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 136905, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.5, "confidenceLow": 54.0, "expectedCount": 74249, "confidenceHigh": 54.5, "expectedPercent": 54.2}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -2.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.4, "probabilityDifference": -3.2}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 38491, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 16.7, "confidenceLow": 56.5, "expectedCount": 21921, "confidenceHigh": 57.4, "expectedPercent": 57.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 39730, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 16.7, "confidenceLow": 57.5, "expectedCount": 23052, "confidenceHigh": 58.5, "expectedPercent": 58.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 128760, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 16.7, "confidenceLow": 56.4, "expectedCount": 72966, "confidenceHigh": 56.9, "expectedPercent": 56.7}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 0.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.0, "probabilityDifference": -1.0}], "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use disagreement to identify prices that may be early or late relative to the underlying market behaviour.", "role": "Context and risk control", "avoid": "Do not assume every divergence must close, or that it must close immediately.", "label": "No standalone edge", "state": "none", "confirm": "Wait for price to begin resolving toward Market Dynamics, or for a separate signal to confirm the change.", "headline": "Divergence is a warning to investigate, not a reversal call", "observed": "At 26 weeks, market dynamics stronger than price was followed by a higher price in 57.0% of cases: -1.0 points versus price stronger than market dynamics and +0.3 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.0 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -2.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.4, "probabilityDifference": -3.2}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 4888, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 4.2, "confidenceLow": 50.0, "expectedCount": 2512, "confidenceHigh": 52.8, "expectedPercent": 51.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 19321, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.4, "confidenceLow": 54.7, "expectedCount": 10701, "confidenceHigh": 56.1, "expectedPercent": 55.4}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 136905, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.5, "confidenceLow": 54.0, "expectedCount": 74249, "confidenceHigh": 54.5, "expectedPercent": 54.2}, "horizons": [{"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 5218, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.6, "confidenceLow": 49.0, "expectedCount": 2630, "confidenceHigh": 51.8, "expectedPercent": 50.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 19587, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.7, "confidenceLow": 51.2, "expectedCount": 10160, "confidenceHigh": 52.6, "expectedPercent": 51.9}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 141173, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.4, "confidenceLow": 50.2, "expectedCount": 71192, "confidenceHigh": 50.7, "expectedPercent": 50.4}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -2.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.8, "probabilityDifference": -1.5}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 4888, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 4.2, "confidenceLow": 50.0, "expectedCount": 2512, "confidenceHigh": 52.8, "expectedPercent": 51.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 19321, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.4, "confidenceLow": 54.7, "expectedCount": 10701, "confidenceHigh": 56.1, "expectedPercent": 55.4}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 136905, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.5, "confidenceLow": 54.0, "expectedCount": 74249, "confidenceHigh": 54.5, "expectedPercent": 54.2}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -5.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -3.3, "probabilityDifference": -4.0}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 4085, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 6.8, "confidenceLow": 48.2, "expectedCount": 2030, "confidenceHigh": 51.2, "expectedPercent": 49.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 18957, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 21.9, "confidenceLow": 60.7, "expectedCount": 11643, "confidenceHigh": 62.1, "expectedPercent": 61.4}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 128760, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 16.7, "confidenceLow": 56.4, "expectedCount": 72966, "confidenceHigh": 56.9, "expectedPercent": 56.7}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -15.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -7.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -9.9, "probabilityDifference": -11.7}], "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use accumulation and distribution to frame price location, patience, risk and the quality of a later signal.", "role": "Context and risk control", "avoid": "Do not buy solely because price is in accumulation or sell solely because it is in distribution.", "label": "No standalone edge", "state": "none", "confirm": "Look for a completed move out of the zone and a compatible Market Dynamics signal before treating location as timing.", "headline": "The zones describe location and risk, not a stand-alone reversal trigger", "observed": "At 4 weeks, accumulation was followed by a higher price in 50.4% of cases: -1.5 points versus distribution and +0.0 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was -2.1 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -5.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -3.3, "probabilityDifference": -4.0}], "buySignalCaseStudy": {"title": "First valid Market Dynamics signal", "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 2.2, "directionalEdgePoints": 6.3}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 3954, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.6, "confidenceLow": 55.2, "expectedCount": 2243, "confidenceHigh": 58.3, "baselinePercent": 50.4, "expectedPercent": 56.7, "baselineAverageReturn": 2.4}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 5.6, "directionalEdgePoints": 12.1}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 3660, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 13.1, "confidenceLow": 64.7, "expectedCount": 2425, "confidenceHigh": 67.8, "baselinePercent": 54.2, "expectedPercent": 66.3, "baselineAverageReturn": 7.5}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 15.5, "directionalEdgePoints": 23.4}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 2809, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 32.2, "confidenceLow": 78.6, "expectedCount": 2251, "confidenceHigh": 81.6, "baselinePercent": 56.7, "expectedPercent": 80.1, "baselineAverageReturn": 16.7}], "expectedDirection": "higher"}, "positioningOutcomes": {"accumulation": {"use": "Long positioning", "label": "Accumulation to distribution", "cycles": 1485, "thresholds": [{"reached": 1256, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 82.7, "confidenceHigh": 86.3, "cyclesObserved": 1485, "reachedPercent": 84.6, "medianWeeksToReach": 3.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 8.0, "completedReachedPercent": 99.1}, {"reached": 1150, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 75.2, "confidenceHigh": 79.5, "cyclesObserved": 1485, "reachedPercent": 77.4, "medianWeeksToReach": 5.5, "averageWeeksToReach": 11.7, "completedReachedPercent": 98.7}, {"reached": 968, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 62.7, "confidenceHigh": 67.6, "cyclesObserved": 1485, "reachedPercent": 65.2, "medianWeeksToReach": 12.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 19.2, "completedReachedPercent": 95.7}, {"reached": 769, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 49.2, "confidenceHigh": 54.3, "cyclesObserved": 1485, "reachedPercent": 51.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 16, "averageWeeksToReach": 25.3, "completedReachedPercent": 88.4}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Completed cycles experienced an average adverse move of 12.9% before resolution. Position size and confirmation still matter.", "timing": "The condition lasted 6.9 weeks on average before price left accumulation, while the best advance in completed cycles occurred after 50.2 weeks on average.", "finding": "77.4% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 5.5 weeks); 65.2% reached 20% (median 12 weeks).", "headline": "Accumulation has been most useful as a patient long-positioning window", "application": "Use accumulation to prepare a long case, then require price confirmation before increasing conviction. The condition is a positioning context rather than a stand-alone instruction to buy.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved higher 97.3% of the time across 37 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 1019, "repeatedCycles": 37, "completedCycles": 466, "medianAdverseMove": 6.8, "medianCycleReturn": 69.4, "averageAdverseMove": 12.9, "averageCycleReturn": 81.8, "medianFavourableMove": 69.5, "averageFavourableMove": 83.7, "medianGrossOpportunity": 69.4, "averageGrossOpportunity": 81.8, "expectedDirectionPercent": 97.6, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 6.32, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 46.0, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 1.9, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 58.4, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 107.2, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 6.9, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 37, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 95.8, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 429, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 41.0, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 50.2, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 98.7, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 97.3, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 86.2, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 99.5}, "distribution": {"use": "Downside risk and short positioning", "label": "Distribution to accumulation", "cycles": 2110, "thresholds": [{"reached": 1513, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 69.7, "confidenceHigh": 73.6, "cyclesObserved": 2110, "reachedPercent": 71.7, "medianWeeksToReach": 3, "averageWeeksToReach": 12.3, "completedReachedPercent": 76.6}, {"reached": 1272, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 58.2, "confidenceHigh": 62.4, "cyclesObserved": 2110, "reachedPercent": 60.3, "medianWeeksToReach": 6.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 18.9, "completedReachedPercent": 69.1}, {"reached": 813, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 36.5, "confidenceHigh": 40.6, "cyclesObserved": 2110, "reachedPercent": 38.5, "medianWeeksToReach": 14, "averageWeeksToReach": 30.0, "completedReachedPercent": 49.6}, {"reached": 481, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 21.1, "confidenceHigh": 24.6, "cyclesObserved": 2110, "reachedPercent": 22.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 23, "averageWeeksToReach": 37.6, "completedReachedPercent": 32.4}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Price rose by 387.6% on average before completed downside cycles resolved. That adverse path makes unconfirmed or unbounded short positioning unsuitable.", "timing": "Price left distribution after 5.7 weeks on average, but the deepest reversal in completed cycles occurred after 40.0 weeks on average.", "finding": "60.3% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 6 weeks); 38.5% reached 20% (median 14 weeks).", "headline": "Distribution has been a downside warning before it has been a short entry", "application": "Use distribution first to review long exposure, protect gains and watch for downward confirmation. A short case needs price weakness and defined risk; distribution alone is not enough.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved lower 86.2% of the time across 94 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 1021, "repeatedCycles": 94, "completedCycles": 1089, "medianAdverseMove": 157.5, "medianCycleReturn": 13.5, "averageAdverseMove": 387.6, "averageCycleReturn": 84.9, "medianFavourableMove": 20.2, "averageFavourableMove": 23.1, "medianGrossOpportunity": -13.5, "averageGrossOpportunity": -84.9, "expectedDirectionPercent": 45.7, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": -0.22, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 190, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 107.9, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 175.0, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 27.8, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 5.7, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 89, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 42.8, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 995, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 16, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 40.0, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 48.7, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 86.2, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 77.8, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 91.7}}}, "etf": {"label": "India ETFs", "annual": [], "regimes": {"priceAhead": {"kind": "disagreement", "path": [{"week": 0, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 1, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 2, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 3, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 4, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 5, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 6, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 7, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 8, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 9, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 10, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 11, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 12, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 13, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 14, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 15, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 16, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 17, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 18, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 19, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 20, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 21, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 22, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 23, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 24, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 25, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 26, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}], "label": "Price positive, Market Dynamics cautious", "episodes": 0, "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": null, "directionalEdgePoints": null}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "baselinePercent": null, "expectedPercent": null, "baselineAverageReturn": null}, {"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": null, "directionalEdgePoints": null}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "baselinePercent": null, "expectedPercent": null, "baselineAverageReturn": null}, {"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": null, "directionalEdgePoints": null}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "baselinePercent": null, "expectedPercent": null, "baselineAverageReturn": null}], "activeEpisodes": 0, "completedEpisodes": 0, "expectedDirection": "lower", "averageExpectedMove": null, "averageWeeksToLargestMove": null}, "dynamicsAhead": {"kind": "disagreement", "path": [{"week": 0, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 1, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 2, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 3, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 4, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 5, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 6, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 7, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 8, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 9, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 10, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 11, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 12, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 13, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 14, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 15, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 16, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 17, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 18, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 19, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 20, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 21, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 22, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 23, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 24, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 25, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 26, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}], "label": "Price cautious, Market Dynamics positive", "episodes": 0, "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": null, "directionalEdgePoints": null}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "baselinePercent": null, "expectedPercent": null, "baselineAverageReturn": null}, {"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": null, "directionalEdgePoints": null}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "baselinePercent": null, "expectedPercent": null, "baselineAverageReturn": null}, {"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": null, "directionalEdgePoints": null}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "baselinePercent": null, "expectedPercent": null, "baselineAverageReturn": null}], "activeEpisodes": 0, "completedEpisodes": 0, "expectedDirection": "higher", "averageExpectedMove": null, "averageWeeksToLargestMove": null}, "alignedNegative": {"kind": "aligned", "path": [{"week": 0, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 1, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 2, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 3, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 4, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 5, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 6, "sample": 0, "averageReturn": null}, {"week": 7, "sample": 0, 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"Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "expectedPercent": null}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": null, "leftVsBaselinePoints": null, "leftVsBaselineReturn": null, "probabilityDifference": null}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "expectedPercent": null}, "label": "More history needed", "right": {"sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "expectedPercent": null}, "state": "building", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "expectedPercent": null}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": null, "leftVsBaselinePoints": null, "leftVsBaselineReturn": null, "probabilityDifference": null}], "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use accumulation and distribution to frame price location, patience, risk and the quality of a later signal.", "role": "Observation only", "avoid": "Do not buy solely because price is in accumulation or sell solely because it is in distribution.", "label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "confirm": "Look for a completed move out of the zone and a compatible Market Dynamics signal before treating location as timing.", "headline": "The zones describe location and risk, not a stand-alone reversal trigger", "observed": "There is not yet enough completed evidence to compare this condition reliably.", "bestHorizon": null, "persistence": "There are not yet enough completed calendar-period tests to judge persistence.", "measuredYears": 0, "testedHorizons": 0, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": null, "leftVsBaselinePoints": null, "leftVsBaselineReturn": null, "probabilityDifference": null}], "buySignalCaseStudy": {"title": "First valid Market Dynamics signal", "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": null, "directionalEdgePoints": null}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, "baselinePercent": null, "expectedPercent": null, "baselineAverageReturn": null}, {"test": {"label": "More history needed", "state": "building", "returnDifference": null, "directionalEdgePoints": null}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 0, "confidence": "Not enough evidence", "averageReturn": null, "confidenceLow": null, "expectedCount": 0, "confidenceHigh": null, 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The condition is a positioning context rather than a stand-alone instruction to buy.", "repeatability": "More repeat cycles are needed before persistence at later price levels can be judged."}, "activeCycles": 0, "repeatedCycles": 0, "completedCycles": 0, "medianAdverseMove": null, "medianCycleReturn": null, "averageAdverseMove": null, "averageCycleReturn": null, "medianFavourableMove": null, "averageFavourableMove": null, "medianGrossOpportunity": null, "averageGrossOpportunity": null, "expectedDirectionPercent": null, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": null, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": null, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": null, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": null, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": null, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": null, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 0, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": null, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 0, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": null, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": null, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": null, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": null, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": null, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": null}, "distribution": {"use": "Downside risk and short positioning", "label": "Distribution to accumulation", "cycles": 0, "thresholds": [{"reached": 0, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": null, "confidenceHigh": null, "cyclesObserved": 0, "reachedPercent": null, "medianWeeksToReach": null, "averageWeeksToReach": null, "completedReachedPercent": null}, {"reached": 0, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": null, "confidenceHigh": null, "cyclesObserved": 0, "reachedPercent": null, "medianWeeksToReach": null, "averageWeeksToReach": null, "completedReachedPercent": null}, {"reached": 0, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": null, "confidenceHigh": null, "cyclesObserved": 0, "reachedPercent": null, "medianWeeksToReach": null, "averageWeeksToReach": null, "completedReachedPercent": null}, {"reached": 0, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": null, "confidenceHigh": null, "cyclesObserved": 0, "reachedPercent": null, "medianWeeksToReach": null, "averageWeeksToReach": null, "completedReachedPercent": null}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Adverse-move evidence is still building.", "timing": "Timing evidence is still building.", "finding": "The 10% move record is still building.", "headline": "Distribution has been a downside warning before it has been a short entry", "application": "Use distribution first to review long exposure, protect gains and watch for downward confirmation. 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"repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": null, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": null, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": null}}}, "equity": {"label": "India equities", "annual": [{"state": "doesNotSupport", "period": "2020", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 3963, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.1, "confidenceLow": 50.1, "expectedCount": 2049, "confidenceHigh": 53.3, "expectedPercent": 51.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 3258, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.9, "confidenceLow": 51.7, "expectedCount": 1740, "confidenceHigh": 55.1, "expectedPercent": 53.4}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 10699, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 21.0, "confidenceLow": 70.9, "expectedCount": 7682, "confidenceHigh": 72.6, "expectedPercent": 71.8}, "leftLabel": "Positive 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{"sample": 21035, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 17.5, "confidenceLow": 55.7, "expectedCount": 11867, "confidenceHigh": 57.1, "expectedPercent": 56.4}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 128760, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 16.7, "confidenceLow": 56.4, "expectedCount": 72966, "confidenceHigh": 56.9, "expectedPercent": 56.7}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -0.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.3, "probabilityDifference": 0.6}], "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use the state to describe the current backdrop and to rank otherwise similar setups.", "role": "Conditional research angle", "avoid": "Do not assume that a positive state must lead to a rise or that a negative state must lead to a fall.", "label": "Horizon-specific", "state": "selective", "confirm": "Require a change in Market Dynamics, confirmation from price, or a separate qualifying signal before treating the state as actionable.", "headline": "The Market Dynamics state provides a directional filter", "observed": "At 4 weeks, positive state was followed by a higher price in 51.7% of cases: +2.6 points versus negative state and +1.3 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +2.0 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 1}, "returnDifference": 0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.0, "probabilityDifference": 0.9}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 69472, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.5, "confidenceLow": 53.9, "expectedCount": 37736, "confidenceHigh": 54.7, "expectedPercent": 54.3}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 69155, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.4, "confidenceLow": 52.4, "expectedCount": 36494, "confidenceHigh": 53.1, "expectedPercent": 52.8}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 136905, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.5, "confidenceLow": 54.0, "expectedCount": 74249, "confidenceHigh": 54.5, "expectedPercent": 54.2}, "horizons": [{"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 71685, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.7, "confidenceLow": 49.9, "expectedCount": 36041, "confidenceHigh": 50.6, "expectedPercent": 50.3}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 71542, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 48.4, "expectedCount": 34884, "confidenceHigh": 49.1, "expectedPercent": 48.8}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 141173, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.4, "confidenceLow": 50.2, "expectedCount": 71192, "confidenceHigh": 50.7, "expectedPercent": 50.4}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 1.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.3, "probabilityDifference": 1.5}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 69472, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.5, "confidenceLow": 53.9, "expectedCount": 37736, "confidenceHigh": 54.7, "expectedPercent": 54.3}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 69155, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.4, "confidenceLow": 52.4, "expectedCount": 36494, "confidenceHigh": 53.1, "expectedPercent": 52.8}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 136905, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.5, "confidenceLow": 54.0, "expectedCount": 74249, "confidenceHigh": 54.5, "expectedPercent": 54.2}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 1.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.0, "probabilityDifference": 1.5}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 66149, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 17.4, "confidenceLow": 57.9, "expectedCount": 38553, "confidenceHigh": 58.7, "expectedPercent": 58.3}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 65534, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 17.0, "confidenceLow": 56.7, "expectedCount": 37381, "confidenceHigh": 57.4, "expectedPercent": 57.0}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 128760, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 16.7, "confidenceLow": 56.4, "expectedCount": 72966, "confidenceHigh": 56.9, "expectedPercent": 56.7}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.7, "probabilityDifference": 1.3}], "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use strengthening or weakening to judge whether an existing price move is gaining or losing support.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not act on a one-period change without checking whether the price structure agrees.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Look for persistence in the change and a compatible response from price before increasing conviction.", "headline": "Strengthening and weakening are confirmation, not timing signals alone", "observed": "At 12 weeks, strengthening was followed by a higher price in 54.3% of cases: +1.5 points versus weakening and +0.1 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +1.1 points.", "bestHorizon": 12, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 3 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 3, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": 1.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.0, "probabilityDifference": 1.5}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 42586, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.9, "confidenceLow": 54.0, "expectedCount": 23219, "confidenceHigh": 55.0, "expectedPercent": 54.5}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 43533, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.2, "confidenceLow": 53.6, "expectedCount": 23542, "confidenceHigh": 54.5, "expectedPercent": 54.1}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 136905, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.5, "confidenceLow": 54.0, "expectedCount": 74249, "confidenceHigh": 54.5, "expectedPercent": 54.2}, "horizons": [{"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 44351, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 50.0, "expectedCount": 22365, "confidenceHigh": 50.9, "expectedPercent": 50.4}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 44296, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 48.9, "expectedCount": 21846, "confidenceHigh": 49.8, "expectedPercent": 49.3}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 141173, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.4, "confidenceLow": 50.2, "expectedCount": 71192, "confidenceHigh": 50.7, "expectedPercent": 50.4}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 1.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.5, "probabilityDifference": 1.1}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 42586, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.9, "confidenceLow": 54.0, "expectedCount": 23219, "confidenceHigh": 55.0, "expectedPercent": 54.5}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 43533, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.2, "confidenceLow": 53.6, "expectedCount": 23542, "confidenceHigh": 54.5, "expectedPercent": 54.1}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 136905, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.5, "confidenceLow": 54.0, "expectedCount": 74249, "confidenceHigh": 54.5, "expectedPercent": 54.2}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 0.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.4, "probabilityDifference": 0.4}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 40047, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 18.4, "confidenceLow": 58.3, "expectedCount": 23538, "confidenceHigh": 59.3, "expectedPercent": 58.8}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 41676, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 15.2, "confidenceLow": 56.3, "expectedCount": 23663, "confidenceHigh": 57.3, "expectedPercent": 56.8}, "state": "supports", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 128760, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 16.7, "confidenceLow": 56.4, "expectedCount": 72966, "confidenceHigh": 56.9, "expectedPercent": 56.7}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 3.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 2.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.7, "probabilityDifference": 2.0}], "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use agreement to distinguish supported trends from moves that lack confirmation.", "role": "Conditional research angle", "avoid": "Do not confuse alignment with certainty; an aligned market can still reverse.", "label": "Horizon-specific", "state": "selective", "confirm": "Check that the advantage remains visible beyond the shortest horizon and repeats across completed years.", "headline": "Agreement improves conviction at the horizons where it persists", "observed": "At 26 weeks, price and market dynamics positive was followed by a higher price in 58.8% of cases: +2.0 points versus price and market dynamics negative and +2.1 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +3.2 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 1}, "returnDifference": 0.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.4, "probabilityDifference": 0.4}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 40424, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.1, "confidenceLow": 51.9, "expectedCount": 21167, "confidenceHigh": 52.8, "expectedPercent": 52.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 42181, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.5, "confidenceLow": 55.1, "expectedCount": 23445, "confidenceHigh": 56.1, "expectedPercent": 55.6}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 136905, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.5, "confidenceLow": 54.0, "expectedCount": 74249, "confidenceHigh": 54.5, "expectedPercent": 54.2}, "horizons": [{"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 42322, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 1.4, "confidenceLow": 47.6, "expectedCount": 20350, "confidenceHigh": 48.6, "expectedPercent": 48.1}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 42718, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.8, "confidenceLow": 50.5, "expectedCount": 21776, "confidenceHigh": 51.5, "expectedPercent": 51.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 141173, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.4, "confidenceLow": 50.2, "expectedCount": 71192, "confidenceHigh": 50.7, "expectedPercent": 50.4}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -1.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.0, "probabilityDifference": -2.9}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 40424, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.1, "confidenceLow": 51.9, "expectedCount": 21167, "confidenceHigh": 52.8, "expectedPercent": 52.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 42181, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 8.5, "confidenceLow": 55.1, "expectedCount": 23445, "confidenceHigh": 56.1, "expectedPercent": 55.6}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 136905, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.5, "confidenceLow": 54.0, "expectedCount": 74249, "confidenceHigh": 54.5, "expectedPercent": 54.2}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -2.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.4, "probabilityDifference": -3.2}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 38491, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 16.7, "confidenceLow": 56.5, "expectedCount": 21921, "confidenceHigh": 57.4, "expectedPercent": 57.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 39730, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 16.7, "confidenceLow": 57.5, "expectedCount": 23052, "confidenceHigh": 58.5, "expectedPercent": 58.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 128760, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 16.7, "confidenceLow": 56.4, "expectedCount": 72966, "confidenceHigh": 56.9, "expectedPercent": 56.7}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 0.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.0, "probabilityDifference": -1.0}], "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use disagreement to identify prices that may be early or late relative to the underlying market behaviour.", "role": "Context and risk control", "avoid": "Do not assume every divergence must close, or that it must close immediately.", "label": "No standalone edge", "state": "none", "confirm": "Wait for price to begin resolving toward Market Dynamics, or for a separate signal to confirm the change.", "headline": "Divergence is a warning to investigate, not a reversal call", "observed": "At 26 weeks, market dynamics stronger than price was followed by a higher price in 57.0% of cases: -1.0 points versus price stronger than market dynamics and +0.3 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.0 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -2.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.4, "probabilityDifference": -3.2}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 4888, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 4.2, "confidenceLow": 50.0, "expectedCount": 2512, "confidenceHigh": 52.8, "expectedPercent": 51.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 19321, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.4, "confidenceLow": 54.7, "expectedCount": 10701, "confidenceHigh": 56.1, "expectedPercent": 55.4}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 136905, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.5, "confidenceLow": 54.0, "expectedCount": 74249, "confidenceHigh": 54.5, "expectedPercent": 54.2}, "horizons": [{"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 5218, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.6, "confidenceLow": 49.0, "expectedCount": 2630, "confidenceHigh": 51.8, "expectedPercent": 50.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 19587, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.7, "confidenceLow": 51.2, "expectedCount": 10160, "confidenceHigh": 52.6, "expectedPercent": 51.9}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 141173, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.4, "confidenceLow": 50.2, "expectedCount": 71192, "confidenceHigh": 50.7, "expectedPercent": 50.4}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -2.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.8, "probabilityDifference": -1.5}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 4888, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 4.2, "confidenceLow": 50.0, "expectedCount": 2512, "confidenceHigh": 52.8, "expectedPercent": 51.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 19321, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.4, "confidenceLow": 54.7, "expectedCount": 10701, "confidenceHigh": 56.1, "expectedPercent": 55.4}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 136905, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.5, "confidenceLow": 54.0, "expectedCount": 74249, "confidenceHigh": 54.5, "expectedPercent": 54.2}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -5.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -3.3, "probabilityDifference": -4.0}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 4085, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 6.8, "confidenceLow": 48.2, "expectedCount": 2030, "confidenceHigh": 51.2, "expectedPercent": 49.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 18957, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 21.9, "confidenceLow": 60.7, "expectedCount": 11643, "confidenceHigh": 62.1, "expectedPercent": 61.4}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 128760, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 16.7, "confidenceLow": 56.4, "expectedCount": 72966, "confidenceHigh": 56.9, "expectedPercent": 56.7}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -15.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -7.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -9.9, "probabilityDifference": -11.7}], "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use accumulation and distribution to frame price location, patience, risk and the quality of a later signal.", "role": "Context and risk control", "avoid": "Do not buy solely because price is in accumulation or sell solely because it is in distribution.", "label": "No standalone edge", "state": "none", "confirm": "Look for a completed move out of the zone and a compatible Market Dynamics signal before treating location as timing.", "headline": "The zones describe location and risk, not a stand-alone reversal trigger", "observed": "At 4 weeks, accumulation was followed by a higher price in 50.4% of cases: -1.5 points versus distribution and +0.0 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was -2.1 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -5.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -3.3, "probabilityDifference": -4.0}], "buySignalCaseStudy": {"title": "First valid Market Dynamics signal", "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 2.2, "directionalEdgePoints": 6.3}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 3954, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.6, "confidenceLow": 55.2, "expectedCount": 2243, "confidenceHigh": 58.3, "baselinePercent": 50.4, "expectedPercent": 56.7, "baselineAverageReturn": 2.4}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 5.6, "directionalEdgePoints": 12.1}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 3660, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 13.1, "confidenceLow": 64.7, "expectedCount": 2425, "confidenceHigh": 67.8, "baselinePercent": 54.2, "expectedPercent": 66.3, "baselineAverageReturn": 7.5}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 15.5, "directionalEdgePoints": 23.4}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 2809, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 32.2, "confidenceLow": 78.6, "expectedCount": 2251, "confidenceHigh": 81.6, "baselinePercent": 56.7, "expectedPercent": 80.1, "baselineAverageReturn": 16.7}], "expectedDirection": "higher"}, "positioningOutcomes": {"accumulation": {"use": "Long positioning", "label": "Accumulation to distribution", "cycles": 1485, "thresholds": [{"reached": 1256, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 82.7, "confidenceHigh": 86.3, "cyclesObserved": 1485, "reachedPercent": 84.6, "medianWeeksToReach": 3.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 8.0, "completedReachedPercent": 99.1}, {"reached": 1150, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 75.2, "confidenceHigh": 79.5, "cyclesObserved": 1485, "reachedPercent": 77.4, "medianWeeksToReach": 5.5, "averageWeeksToReach": 11.7, "completedReachedPercent": 98.7}, {"reached": 968, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 62.7, "confidenceHigh": 67.6, "cyclesObserved": 1485, "reachedPercent": 65.2, "medianWeeksToReach": 12.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 19.2, "completedReachedPercent": 95.7}, {"reached": 769, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 49.2, "confidenceHigh": 54.3, "cyclesObserved": 1485, "reachedPercent": 51.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 16, "averageWeeksToReach": 25.3, "completedReachedPercent": 88.4}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Completed cycles experienced an average adverse move of 12.9% before resolution. Position size and confirmation still matter.", "timing": "The condition lasted 6.9 weeks on average before price left accumulation, while the best advance in completed cycles occurred after 50.2 weeks on average.", "finding": "77.4% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 5.5 weeks); 65.2% reached 20% (median 12 weeks).", "headline": "Accumulation has been most useful as a patient long-positioning window", "application": "Use accumulation to prepare a long case, then require price confirmation before increasing conviction. The condition is a positioning context rather than a stand-alone instruction to buy.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved higher 97.3% of the time across 37 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 1019, "repeatedCycles": 37, "completedCycles": 466, "medianAdverseMove": 6.8, "medianCycleReturn": 69.4, "averageAdverseMove": 12.9, "averageCycleReturn": 81.8, "medianFavourableMove": 69.5, "averageFavourableMove": 83.7, "medianGrossOpportunity": 69.4, "averageGrossOpportunity": 81.8, "expectedDirectionPercent": 97.6, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 6.32, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 46.0, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 1.9, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 58.4, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 107.2, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 6.9, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 37, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 95.8, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 429, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 41.0, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 50.2, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 98.7, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 97.3, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 86.2, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 99.5}, "distribution": {"use": "Downside risk and short positioning", "label": "Distribution to accumulation", "cycles": 2110, "thresholds": [{"reached": 1513, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 69.7, "confidenceHigh": 73.6, "cyclesObserved": 2110, "reachedPercent": 71.7, "medianWeeksToReach": 3, "averageWeeksToReach": 12.3, "completedReachedPercent": 76.6}, {"reached": 1272, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 58.2, "confidenceHigh": 62.4, "cyclesObserved": 2110, "reachedPercent": 60.3, "medianWeeksToReach": 6.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 18.9, "completedReachedPercent": 69.1}, {"reached": 813, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 36.5, "confidenceHigh": 40.6, "cyclesObserved": 2110, "reachedPercent": 38.5, "medianWeeksToReach": 14, "averageWeeksToReach": 30.0, "completedReachedPercent": 49.6}, {"reached": 481, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 21.1, "confidenceHigh": 24.6, "cyclesObserved": 2110, "reachedPercent": 22.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 23, "averageWeeksToReach": 37.6, "completedReachedPercent": 32.4}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Price rose by 387.6% on average before completed downside cycles resolved. That adverse path makes unconfirmed or unbounded short positioning unsuitable.", "timing": "Price left distribution after 5.7 weeks on average, but the deepest reversal in completed cycles occurred after 40.0 weeks on average.", "finding": "60.3% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 6 weeks); 38.5% reached 20% (median 14 weeks).", "headline": "Distribution has been a downside warning before it has been a short entry", "application": "Use distribution first to review long exposure, protect gains and watch for downward confirmation. A short case needs price weakness and defined risk; distribution alone is not enough.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved lower 86.2% of the time across 94 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 1021, "repeatedCycles": 94, "completedCycles": 1089, "medianAdverseMove": 157.5, "medianCycleReturn": 13.5, "averageAdverseMove": 387.6, "averageCycleReturn": 84.9, "medianFavourableMove": 20.2, "averageFavourableMove": 23.1, "medianGrossOpportunity": -13.5, "averageGrossOpportunity": -84.9, "expectedDirectionPercent": 45.7, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": -0.22, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 190, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 107.9, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 175.0, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 27.8, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 5.7, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 89, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 42.8, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 995, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 16, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 40.0, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 48.7, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 86.2, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 77.8, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 91.7}}}}}, "methodBoundary": "Public outcomes and sample sizes only. Proprietary signal construction is not disclosed."}