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The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.1 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.5, "probabilityDifference": -2.5}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 30934, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 58.5, "expectedCount": 18253, "confidenceHigh": 59.6, "expectedPercent": 59.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 26319, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.8, "confidenceLow": 60.4, "expectedCount": 16063, "confidenceHigh": 61.6, "expectedPercent": 61.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 89450, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 62.8, "expectedCount": 56461, "confidenceHigh": 63.4, "expectedPercent": 63.1}, "horizons": [{"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 32075, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.4, "confidenceLow": 52.6, "expectedCount": 17054, "confidenceHigh": 53.7, "expectedPercent": 53.2}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 26973, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 56.7, "expectedCount": 15448, "confidenceHigh": 57.9, "expectedPercent": 57.3}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 92768, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 56.9, "expectedCount": 53047, "confidenceHigh": 57.5, "expectedPercent": 57.2}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -4.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.5, "probabilityDifference": -4.1}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 30934, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 58.5, "expectedCount": 18253, "confidenceHigh": 59.6, "expectedPercent": 59.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 26319, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.8, "confidenceLow": 60.4, "expectedCount": 16063, "confidenceHigh": 61.6, "expectedPercent": 61.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 89450, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 62.8, "expectedCount": 56461, "confidenceHigh": 63.4, "expectedPercent": 63.1}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -1.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -4.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.9, "probabilityDifference": -2.0}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 29268, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.4, "confidenceLow": 64.5, "expectedCount": 19043, "confidenceHigh": 65.6, "expectedPercent": 65.1}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 24373, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.1, "confidenceLow": 62.6, "expectedCount": 15415, "confidenceHigh": 63.8, "expectedPercent": 63.2}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 83402, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.4, "confidenceLow": 65.3, "expectedCount": 54729, "confidenceHigh": 65.9, "expectedPercent": 65.6}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.0, "probabilityDifference": 1.9}], "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use agreement to distinguish supported trends from moves that lack confirmation.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not confuse alignment with certainty; an aligned market can still reverse.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Check that the advantage remains visible beyond the shortest horizon and repeats across completed years.", "headline": "Agreement describes alignment, but does not select direction by itself", "observed": "At 26 weeks, price and market dynamics positive was followed by a higher price in 65.1% of cases: +1.9 points versus price and market dynamics negative and -0.5 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.3 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -1.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -4.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.9, "probabilityDifference": -2.0}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 28700, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.5, "confidenceLow": 62.4, "expectedCount": 18067, "confidenceHigh": 63.5, "expectedPercent": 63.0}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 26448, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.1, "confidenceLow": 57.5, "expectedCount": 15369, "confidenceHigh": 58.7, "expectedPercent": 58.1}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 89450, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 62.8, "expectedCount": 56461, "confidenceHigh": 63.4, "expectedPercent": 63.1}, "horizons": [{"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 30066, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.6, "confidenceLow": 58.0, "expectedCount": 17598, "confidenceHigh": 59.1, "expectedPercent": 58.5}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 27026, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.1, "confidenceLow": 57.6, "expectedCount": 15721, "confidenceHigh": 58.8, "expectedPercent": 58.2}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 92768, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 56.9, "expectedCount": 53047, "confidenceHigh": 57.5, "expectedPercent": 57.2}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -0.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.3, "probabilityDifference": 0.3}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 28700, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.5, "confidenceLow": 62.4, "expectedCount": 18067, "confidenceHigh": 63.5, "expectedPercent": 63.0}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 26448, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.1, "confidenceLow": 57.5, "expectedCount": 15369, "confidenceHigh": 58.7, "expectedPercent": 58.1}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 89450, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 62.8, "expectedCount": 56461, "confidenceHigh": 63.4, "expectedPercent": 63.1}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 0.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.1, "probabilityDifference": 4.9}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 27248, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.0, "confidenceLow": 65.8, "expectedCount": 18080, "confidenceHigh": 66.9, "expectedPercent": 66.4}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 24350, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.2, "confidenceLow": 62.9, "expectedCount": 15461, "confidenceHigh": 64.1, "expectedPercent": 63.5}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 83402, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.4, "confidenceLow": 65.3, "expectedCount": 54729, "confidenceHigh": 65.9, "expectedPercent": 65.6}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 0.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.6, "probabilityDifference": 2.9}], "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use disagreement to identify prices that may be early or late relative to the underlying market behaviour.", "role": "Primary research filter", "avoid": "Do not assume every divergence must close, or that it must close immediately.", "label": "Strong and persistent", "state": "strong", "confirm": "Wait for price to begin resolving toward Market Dynamics, or for a separate signal to confirm the change.", "headline": "Market Dynamics leading price is an early-change watchlist angle", "observed": "At 12 weeks, market dynamics stronger than price was followed by a higher price in 63.0% of cases: +4.9 points versus price stronger than market dynamics and -0.1 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.4 points.", "bestHorizon": 12, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 3 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 3, "supportingHorizons": 2}, "returnDifference": 0.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.1, "probabilityDifference": 4.9}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 2913, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.8, "confidenceLow": 50.8, "expectedCount": 1534, "confidenceHigh": 54.5, "expectedPercent": 52.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 13151, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.1, "confidenceLow": 64.6, "expectedCount": 8599, "confidenceHigh": 66.2, "expectedPercent": 65.4}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 89450, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 62.8, "expectedCount": 56461, "confidenceHigh": 63.4, "expectedPercent": 63.1}, "horizons": [{"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 2990, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.6, "confidenceLow": 51.0, "expectedCount": 1577, "confidenceHigh": 54.5, "expectedPercent": 52.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 13589, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 58.7, "expectedCount": 8089, "confidenceHigh": 60.3, "expectedPercent": 59.5}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 92768, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 56.9, "expectedCount": 53047, "confidenceHigh": 57.5, "expectedPercent": 57.2}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -0.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -4.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.3, "probabilityDifference": -6.8}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 2913, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.8, "confidenceLow": 50.8, "expectedCount": 1534, "confidenceHigh": 54.5, "expectedPercent": 52.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 13151, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.1, "confidenceLow": 64.6, "expectedCount": 8599, "confidenceHigh": 66.2, "expectedPercent": 65.4}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 89450, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 62.8, "expectedCount": 56461, "confidenceHigh": 63.4, "expectedPercent": 63.1}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -1.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -10.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.8, "probabilityDifference": -12.7}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 2772, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.0, "confidenceLow": 47.6, "expectedCount": 1371, "confidenceHigh": 51.3, "expectedPercent": 49.5}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 11913, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.4, "confidenceLow": 69.3, "expectedCount": 8360, "confidenceHigh": 71.0, "expectedPercent": 70.2}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 83402, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.4, "confidenceLow": 65.3, "expectedCount": 54729, "confidenceHigh": 65.9, "expectedPercent": 65.6}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -5.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -16.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -3.4, "probabilityDifference": -20.7}], "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use accumulation and distribution to frame price location, patience, risk and the quality of a later signal.", "role": "Context and risk control", "avoid": "Do not buy solely because price is in accumulation or sell solely because it is in distribution.", "label": "No standalone edge", "state": "none", "confirm": "Look for a completed move out of the zone and a compatible Market Dynamics signal before treating location as timing.", "headline": "The zones describe location and risk, not a stand-alone reversal trigger", "observed": "At 4 weeks, accumulation was followed by a higher price in 52.7% of cases: -6.8 points versus distribution and -4.5 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was -0.4 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -1.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -10.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.8, "probabilityDifference": -12.7}], "buySignalCaseStudy": {"title": "First valid Market Dynamics signal", "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 1.2, "directionalEdgePoints": 4.9}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 2996, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.1, "confidenceLow": 60.3, "expectedCount": 1860, "confidenceHigh": 63.8, "baselinePercent": 57.2, "expectedPercent": 62.1, "baselineAverageReturn": 0.9}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 3.3, "directionalEdgePoints": 9.2}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 2928, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.9, "confidenceLow": 70.7, "expectedCount": 2118, "confidenceHigh": 73.9, "baselinePercent": 63.1, "expectedPercent": 72.3, "baselineAverageReturn": 2.6}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 4.9, "directionalEdgePoints": 15.2}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 2787, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 10.3, "confidenceLow": 79.3, "expectedCount": 2251, "confidenceHigh": 82.2, "baselinePercent": 65.6, "expectedPercent": 80.8, "baselineAverageReturn": 5.4}], "expectedDirection": "higher"}, "positioningOutcomes": {"accumulation": {"use": "Long positioning", "label": "Accumulation to distribution", "cycles": 702, "thresholds": [{"reached": 594, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 81.8, "confidenceHigh": 87.1, "cyclesObserved": 702, "reachedPercent": 84.6, "medianWeeksToReach": 5.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 15.5, "completedReachedPercent": 91.8}, {"reached": 516, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 70.1, "confidenceHigh": 76.6, "cyclesObserved": 702, "reachedPercent": 73.5, "medianWeeksToReach": 10.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 20.8, "completedReachedPercent": 83.4}, {"reached": 354, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 46.7, "confidenceHigh": 54.1, "cyclesObserved": 702, "reachedPercent": 50.4, "medianWeeksToReach": 24.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 32.5, "completedReachedPercent": 61.6}, {"reached": 212, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 26.9, "confidenceHigh": 33.7, "cyclesObserved": 702, "reachedPercent": 30.2, "medianWeeksToReach": 29.5, "averageWeeksToReach": 39.2, "completedReachedPercent": 38.2}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Completed cycles experienced an average adverse move of 10.8% before resolution. Position size and confirmation still matter.", "timing": "The condition lasted 7.9 weeks on average before price left accumulation, while the best advance in completed cycles occurred after 55.4 weeks on average.", "finding": "73.5% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 10 weeks); 50.4% reached 20% (median 24 weeks).", "headline": "Accumulation has been most useful as a patient long-positioning window", "application": "Use accumulation to prepare a long case, then require price confirmation before increasing conviction. The condition is a positioning context rather than a stand-alone instruction to buy.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved higher 89.7% of the time across 29 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 225, "repeatedCycles": 29, "completedCycles": 477, "medianAdverseMove": 4.3, "medianCycleReturn": 23.2, "averageAdverseMove": 10.8, "averageCycleReturn": 32.3, "medianFavourableMove": 24.3, "averageFavourableMove": 34.4, "medianGrossOpportunity": 23.2, "averageGrossOpportunity": 32.3, "expectedDirectionPercent": 93.7, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 3.0, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 63, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 2.1, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 79.3, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 36.6, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 7.9, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 29, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 91.2, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 448, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 47, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 55.4, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 95.6, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 89.7, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 73.6, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 96.4}, "distribution": {"use": "Downside risk and short positioning", "label": "Distribution to accumulation", "cycles": 1680, "thresholds": [{"reached": 837, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 47.4, "confidenceHigh": 52.2, "cyclesObserved": 1680, "reachedPercent": 49.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 13, "averageWeeksToReach": 28.6, "completedReachedPercent": 76.8}, {"reached": 501, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 27.7, "confidenceHigh": 32.1, "cyclesObserved": 1680, "reachedPercent": 29.8, "medianWeeksToReach": 21, "averageWeeksToReach": 35.1, "completedReachedPercent": 60.5}, {"reached": 188, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 9.8, "confidenceHigh": 12.8, "cyclesObserved": 1680, "reachedPercent": 11.2, "medianWeeksToReach": 31.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 39.7, "completedReachedPercent": 27.0}, {"reached": 82, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 3.9, "confidenceHigh": 6.0, "cyclesObserved": 1680, "reachedPercent": 4.9, "medianWeeksToReach": 39.5, "averageWeeksToReach": 40.2, "completedReachedPercent": 13.4}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Price rose by 49.7% on average before completed downside cycles resolved. That adverse path makes unconfirmed or unbounded short positioning unsuitable.", "timing": "Price left distribution after 8.5 weeks on average, but the deepest reversal in completed cycles occurred after 52.1 weeks on average.", "finding": "29.8% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 21 weeks); 11.2% reached 20% (median 31 weeks).", "headline": "Distribution has been a downside warning before it has been a short entry", "application": "Use distribution first to review long exposure, protect gains and watch for downward confirmation. A short case needs price weakness and defined risk; distribution alone is not enough.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved lower 100.0% of the time across 14 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 1313, "repeatedCycles": 14, "completedCycles": 367, "medianAdverseMove": 17.7, "medianCycleReturn": -11.3, "averageAdverseMove": 49.7, "averageCycleReturn": -7.0, "medianFavourableMove": 12.7, "averageFavourableMove": 15.8, "medianGrossOpportunity": 11.3, "averageGrossOpportunity": 7.0, "expectedDirectionPercent": 77.1, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 0.14, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 95, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 8.8, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 104.7, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 26.6, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 8.5, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 14, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 72.5, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 353, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 37, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 52.1, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 81.1, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 100.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 78.5, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 100.0}}}, "etf": {"label": "Italy ETFs", "annual": [{"state": "doesNotSupport", "period": "2020", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 1753, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": -4.7, "confidenceLow": 46.3, "expectedCount": 852, "confidenceHigh": 50.9, "expectedPercent": 48.6}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1315, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.6, "confidenceLow": 55.4, "expectedCount": 764, "confidenceHigh": 60.7, "expectedPercent": 58.1}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 4737, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.0, "confidenceLow": 79.7, "expectedCount": 3830, "confidenceHigh": 81.9, "expectedPercent": 80.9}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -8.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -32.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -10.7, "probabilityDifference": -9.5}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 4328, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.5, "confidenceLow": 65.3, "expectedCount": 2889, "confidenceHigh": 68.1, "expectedPercent": 66.8}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 4333, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.0, "confidenceLow": 62.5, "expectedCount": 2772, "confidenceHigh": 65.4, "expectedPercent": 64.0}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 4737, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.0, "confidenceLow": 79.7, "expectedCount": 3830, "confidenceHigh": 81.9, "expectedPercent": 80.9}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -14.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -3.5, "probabilityDifference": 2.8}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 3405, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.1, "confidenceLow": 63.8, "expectedCount": 2226, "confidenceHigh": 67.0, "expectedPercent": 65.4}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 1944, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.2, "confidenceLow": 60.1, "expectedCount": 1210, "confidenceHigh": 64.4, "expectedPercent": 62.2}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 4737, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.0, "confidenceLow": 79.7, "expectedCount": 3830, "confidenceHigh": 81.9, "expectedPercent": 80.9}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -3.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -15.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -3.9, "probabilityDifference": 3.2}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 3223, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.5, "confidenceLow": 64.4, "expectedCount": 2130, "confidenceHigh": 67.7, "expectedPercent": 66.1}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1937, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.3, "confidenceLow": 73.7, "expectedCount": 1466, "confidenceHigh": 77.5, "expectedPercent": 75.7}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 4737, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.0, "confidenceLow": 79.7, "expectedCount": 3830, "confidenceHigh": 81.9, "expectedPercent": 80.9}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -3.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -14.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -3.5, "probabilityDifference": -9.6}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 142, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.9, "confidenceLow": 33.1, "expectedCount": 58, "confidenceHigh": 49.1, "expectedPercent": 40.8}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 602, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.4, "confidenceLow": 85.4, "expectedCount": 531, "confidenceHigh": 90.5, "expectedPercent": 88.2}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 4737, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.0, "confidenceLow": 79.7, "expectedCount": 3830, "confidenceHigh": 81.9, "expectedPercent": 80.9}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -8.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -40.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -6.9, "probabilityDifference": -47.4}], "supports": 0, "doesNotSupport": 3}, {"state": "doesNotSupport", "period": "2021", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 1254, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": -0.3, "confidenceLow": 44.6, 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54.9, "expectedPercent": 54.1}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 12665, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.8, "confidenceLow": 59.4, "expectedCount": 7637, "confidenceHigh": 61.1, "expectedPercent": 60.3}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 76947, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 58.7, "expectedCount": 45427, "confidenceHigh": 59.4, "expectedPercent": 59.0}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -4.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.4, "probabilityDifference": -6.2}, {"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 12954, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.7, "confidenceLow": 55.8, "expectedCount": 7334, "confidenceHigh": 57.5, "expectedPercent": 56.6}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 12392, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.0, "confidenceLow": 63.9, "expectedCount": 8029, "confidenceHigh": 65.6, "expectedPercent": 64.8}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 74115, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.7, "confidenceLow": 65.4, "expectedCount": 48724, "confidenceHigh": 66.1, "expectedPercent": 65.7}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -2.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -9.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -2.0, "probabilityDifference": -8.2}, {"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 11978, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.4, "confidenceLow": 60.8, "expectedCount": 7382, "confidenceHigh": 62.5, "expectedPercent": 61.6}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 11484, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.4, "confidenceLow": 68.2, "expectedCount": 7934, "confidenceHigh": 69.9, "expectedPercent": 69.1}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 68985, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.6, "confidenceLow": 68.2, "expectedCount": 47269, "confidenceHigh": 68.9, "expectedPercent": 68.5}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -3.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -6.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -2.2, "probabilityDifference": -7.5}], "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use the state to describe the current backdrop and to rank otherwise similar setups.", "role": "Context and risk control", "avoid": "Do not assume that a positive state must lead to a rise or that a negative state must lead to a fall.", "label": "No standalone edge", "state": "none", "confirm": "Require a change in Market Dynamics, confirmation from price, or a separate qualifying signal before treating the state as actionable.", "headline": "The sign describes the backdrop, not a directional trigger", "observed": "At 4 weeks, positive state was followed by a higher price in 54.1% of cases: -6.2 points versus negative state and -4.9 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was -0.3 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -2.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -9.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -2.0, "probabilityDifference": -8.2}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 39717, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.2, "confidenceLow": 62.4, "expectedCount": 24989, "confidenceHigh": 63.4, "expectedPercent": 62.9}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 39120, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.7, "confidenceLow": 65.2, "expectedCount": 25677, "confidenceHigh": 66.1, "expectedPercent": 65.6}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 74115, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.7, "confidenceLow": 65.4, "expectedCount": 48724, "confidenceHigh": 66.1, "expectedPercent": 65.7}, "horizons": [{"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 41038, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 58.8, "expectedCount": 24321, "confidenceHigh": 59.7, "expectedPercent": 59.3}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 40994, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.8, "confidenceLow": 58.5, "expectedCount": 24178, "confidenceHigh": 59.5, "expectedPercent": 59.0}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 76947, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 58.7, "expectedCount": 45427, "confidenceHigh": 59.4, "expectedPercent": 59.0}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.1, "probabilityDifference": 0.3}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 39717, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.2, "confidenceLow": 62.4, "expectedCount": 24989, "confidenceHigh": 63.4, "expectedPercent": 62.9}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 39120, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.7, "confidenceLow": 65.2, "expectedCount": 25677, "confidenceHigh": 66.1, "expectedPercent": 65.6}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 74115, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.7, "confidenceLow": 65.4, "expectedCount": 48724, "confidenceHigh": 66.1, "expectedPercent": 65.7}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -0.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.5, "probabilityDifference": -2.7}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 37270, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.7, "confidenceLow": 68.1, "expectedCount": 25557, "confidenceHigh": 69.0, "expectedPercent": 68.6}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 37085, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.6, "confidenceLow": 67.2, "expectedCount": 25110, "confidenceHigh": 68.2, "expectedPercent": 67.7}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 68985, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.6, "confidenceLow": 68.2, "expectedCount": 47269, "confidenceHigh": 68.9, "expectedPercent": 68.5}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.1, "probabilityDifference": 0.9}], "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use strengthening or weakening to judge whether an existing price move is gaining or losing support.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not act on a one-period change without checking whether the price structure agrees.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Look for persistence in the change and a compatible response from price before increasing conviction.", "headline": "Strengthening and weakening are confirmation, not timing signals alone", "observed": "At 26 weeks, strengthening was followed by a higher price in 68.6% of cases: +0.9 points versus weakening and +0.1 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.1 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.5, "probabilityDifference": -2.7}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 25879, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 60.4, "expectedCount": 15785, "confidenceHigh": 61.6, "expectedPercent": 61.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 21183, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.1, "confidenceLow": 63.4, "expectedCount": 13563, "confidenceHigh": 64.7, "expectedPercent": 64.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 74115, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.7, "confidenceLow": 65.4, "expectedCount": 48724, "confidenceHigh": 66.1, "expectedPercent": 65.7}, "horizons": [{"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 26833, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.4, "confidenceLow": 54.1, "expectedCount": 14674, "confidenceHigh": 55.3, "expectedPercent": 54.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 21712, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.0, "confidenceLow": 58.9, "expectedCount": 12925, "confidenceHigh": 60.2, "expectedPercent": 59.5}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 76947, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 58.7, "expectedCount": 45427, "confidenceHigh": 59.4, "expectedPercent": 59.0}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -4.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.5, "probabilityDifference": -4.8}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 25879, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 60.4, "expectedCount": 15785, "confidenceHigh": 61.6, "expectedPercent": 61.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 21183, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.1, "confidenceLow": 63.4, "expectedCount": 13563, "confidenceHigh": 64.7, "expectedPercent": 64.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 74115, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.7, "confidenceLow": 65.4, "expectedCount": 48724, "confidenceHigh": 66.1, "expectedPercent": 65.7}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -1.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -4.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.0, "probabilityDifference": -3.0}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 24439, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.5, "confidenceLow": 66.9, "expectedCount": 16502, "confidenceHigh": 68.1, "expectedPercent": 67.5}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 19540, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.7, "confidenceLow": 66.2, "expectedCount": 13068, "confidenceHigh": 67.5, "expectedPercent": 66.9}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 68985, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.6, "confidenceLow": 68.2, "expectedCount": 47269, "confidenceHigh": 68.9, "expectedPercent": 68.5}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.1, "probabilityDifference": 0.6}], "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use agreement to distinguish supported trends from moves that lack confirmation.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not confuse alignment with certainty; an aligned market can still reverse.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Check that the advantage remains visible beyond the shortest horizon and repeats across completed years.", "headline": "Agreement describes alignment, but does not select direction by itself", "observed": "At 26 weeks, price and market dynamics positive was followed by a higher price in 67.5% of cases: +0.6 points versus price and market dynamics negative and -1.0 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was -0.2 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -1.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -4.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.0, "probabilityDifference": -3.0}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 23870, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 64.9, "expectedCount": 15630, "confidenceHigh": 66.1, "expectedPercent": 65.5}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 21545, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.4, "confidenceLow": 60.1, "expectedCount": 13080, "confidenceHigh": 61.4, "expectedPercent": 60.7}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 74115, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.7, "confidenceLow": 65.4, "expectedCount": 48724, "confidenceHigh": 66.1, "expectedPercent": 65.7}, "horizons": [{"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 25034, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.7, "confidenceLow": 60.0, "expectedCount": 15184, "confidenceHigh": 61.3, "expectedPercent": 60.7}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 22004, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 1.2, "confidenceLow": 60.4, "expectedCount": 13434, "confidenceHigh": 61.7, "expectedPercent": 61.1}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 76947, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 58.7, "expectedCount": 45427, "confidenceHigh": 59.4, "expectedPercent": 59.0}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -0.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.2, "probabilityDifference": -0.4}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 23870, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.6, "confidenceLow": 64.9, "expectedCount": 15630, "confidenceHigh": 66.1, "expectedPercent": 65.5}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 21545, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.4, "confidenceLow": 60.1, "expectedCount": 13080, "confidenceHigh": 61.4, "expectedPercent": 60.7}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 74115, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.7, "confidenceLow": 65.4, "expectedCount": 48724, "confidenceHigh": 66.1, "expectedPercent": 65.7}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.1, "probabilityDifference": 4.8}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 22613, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.3, "confidenceLow": 68.5, "expectedCount": 15632, "confidenceHigh": 69.7, "expectedPercent": 69.1}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 19742, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.8, "confidenceLow": 66.3, "expectedCount": 13210, "confidenceHigh": 67.6, "expectedPercent": 66.9}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 68985, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.6, "confidenceLow": 68.2, "expectedCount": 47269, "confidenceHigh": 68.9, "expectedPercent": 68.5}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 0.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.7, "probabilityDifference": 2.2}], "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use disagreement to identify prices that may be early or late relative to the underlying market behaviour.", "role": "Primary research filter", "avoid": "Do not assume every divergence must close, or that it must close immediately.", "label": "Strong and persistent", "state": "strong", "confirm": "Wait for price to begin resolving toward Market Dynamics, or for a separate signal to confirm the change.", "headline": "Market Dynamics leading price is an early-change watchlist angle", "observed": "At 12 weeks, market dynamics stronger than price was followed by a higher price in 65.5% of cases: +4.8 points versus price stronger than market dynamics and -0.2 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.2 points.", "bestHorizon": 12, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 3 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 3, "supportingHorizons": 2}, "returnDifference": 0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.1, "probabilityDifference": 4.8}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 1959, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 54.9, "expectedCount": 1118, "confidenceHigh": 59.2, "expectedPercent": 57.1}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 11718, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 65.3, "expectedCount": 7751, "confidenceHigh": 67.0, "expectedPercent": 66.1}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 74115, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.7, "confidenceLow": 65.4, "expectedCount": 48724, "confidenceHigh": 66.1, "expectedPercent": 65.7}, "horizons": [{"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 1996, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.8, "confidenceLow": 53.3, "expectedCount": 1108, "confidenceHigh": 57.7, "expectedPercent": 55.5}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 12117, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 59.6, "expectedCount": 7325, "confidenceHigh": 61.3, "expectedPercent": 60.5}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 76947, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 0.9, "confidenceLow": 58.7, "expectedCount": 45427, "confidenceHigh": 59.4, "expectedPercent": 59.0}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -0.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.1, "probabilityDifference": -5.0}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 1959, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 54.9, "expectedCount": 1118, "confidenceHigh": 59.2, "expectedPercent": 57.1}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 11718, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.9, "confidenceLow": 65.3, "expectedCount": 7751, "confidenceHigh": 67.0, "expectedPercent": 66.1}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 74115, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.7, "confidenceLow": 65.4, "expectedCount": 48724, "confidenceHigh": 66.1, "expectedPercent": 65.7}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": 0.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -8.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.2, "probabilityDifference": -9.0}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 1878, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.1, "confidenceLow": 51.7, "expectedCount": 1014, "confidenceHigh": 56.2, "expectedPercent": 54.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 10569, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.8, "confidenceLow": 70.3, "expectedCount": 7520, "confidenceHigh": 72.0, "expectedPercent": 71.2}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 68985, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.6, "confidenceLow": 68.2, "expectedCount": 47269, "confidenceHigh": 68.9, "expectedPercent": 68.5}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -2.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -14.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.5, "probabilityDifference": -17.2}], "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use accumulation and distribution to frame price location, patience, risk and the quality of a later signal.", "role": "Context and risk control", "avoid": "Do not buy solely because price is in accumulation or sell solely because it is in distribution.", "label": "No standalone edge", "state": "none", "confirm": "Look for a completed move out of the zone and a compatible Market Dynamics signal before treating location as timing.", "headline": "The zones describe location and risk, not a stand-alone reversal trigger", "observed": "At 4 weeks, accumulation was followed by a higher price in 55.5% of cases: -5.0 points versus distribution and -3.5 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was -0.1 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": 0.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -8.6, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.2, "probabilityDifference": -9.0}], "buySignalCaseStudy": {"title": "First valid Market Dynamics signal", "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 1.1, "directionalEdgePoints": 5.0}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 2554, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 2.0, "confidenceLow": 62.1, "expectedCount": 1634, "confidenceHigh": 65.8, "baselinePercent": 59.0, "expectedPercent": 64.0, "baselineAverageReturn": 0.9}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 3.1, "directionalEdgePoints": 8.1}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 2515, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.8, "confidenceLow": 72.1, "expectedCount": 1857, "confidenceHigh": 75.5, "baselinePercent": 65.7, "expectedPercent": 73.8, "baselineAverageReturn": 2.7}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 3.9, "directionalEdgePoints": 13.3}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 2412, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.5, "confidenceLow": 80.3, "expectedCount": 1974, "confidenceHigh": 83.3, "baselinePercent": 68.5, "expectedPercent": 81.8, "baselineAverageReturn": 5.6}], "expectedDirection": "higher"}, "positioningOutcomes": {"accumulation": {"use": "Long positioning", "label": "Accumulation to distribution", "cycles": 505, "thresholds": [{"reached": 430, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 81.8, "confidenceHigh": 88.0, "cyclesObserved": 505, "reachedPercent": 85.1, "medianWeeksToReach": 5.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 16.5, "completedReachedPercent": 91.8}, {"reached": 376, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 70.5, "confidenceHigh": 78.1, "cyclesObserved": 505, "reachedPercent": 74.5, "medianWeeksToReach": 11.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 22.6, "completedReachedPercent": 82.3}, {"reached": 243, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 43.8, "confidenceHigh": 52.5, "cyclesObserved": 505, "reachedPercent": 48.1, "medianWeeksToReach": 27, "averageWeeksToReach": 36.1, "completedReachedPercent": 56.3}, {"reached": 126, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 21.4, "confidenceHigh": 28.9, "cyclesObserved": 505, "reachedPercent": 25.0, "medianWeeksToReach": 28.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 40.4, "completedReachedPercent": 29.6}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Completed cycles experienced an average adverse move of 9.1% before resolution. Position size and confirmation still matter.", "timing": "The condition lasted 7.5 weeks on average before price left accumulation, while the best advance in completed cycles occurred after 54.8 weeks on average.", "finding": "74.5% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 11 weeks); 48.1% reached 20% (median 27 weeks).", "headline": "Accumulation has been most useful as a patient long-positioning window", "application": "Use accumulation to prepare a long case, then require price confirmation before increasing conviction. The condition is a positioning context rather than a stand-alone instruction to buy.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved higher 95.0% of the time across 20 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 116, "repeatedCycles": 20, "completedCycles": 389, "medianAdverseMove": 2.9, "medianCycleReturn": 21.5, "averageAdverseMove": 9.1, "averageCycleReturn": 29.4, "medianFavourableMove": 21.8, "averageFavourableMove": 31.1, "medianGrossOpportunity": 21.5, "averageGrossOpportunity": 29.4, "expectedDirectionPercent": 94.1, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 3.23, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 61, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 1.7, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 75.5, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 38.7, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 7.5, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 20, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 91.3, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 369, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 47, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 54.8, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 96.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 95.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 76.4, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 99.1}, "distribution": {"use": "Downside risk and short positioning", "label": "Distribution to accumulation", "cycles": 1470, "thresholds": [{"reached": 691, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 44.5, "confidenceHigh": 49.6, "cyclesObserved": 1470, "reachedPercent": 47.0, "medianWeeksToReach": 15, "averageWeeksToReach": 30.3, "completedReachedPercent": 75.9}, {"reached": 389, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 24.3, "confidenceHigh": 28.8, "cyclesObserved": 1470, "reachedPercent": 26.5, "medianWeeksToReach": 26, "averageWeeksToReach": 37.3, "completedReachedPercent": 56.7}, {"reached": 121, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 6.9, "confidenceHigh": 9.7, "cyclesObserved": 1470, "reachedPercent": 8.2, "medianWeeksToReach": 27, "averageWeeksToReach": 39.6, "completedReachedPercent": 19.5}, {"reached": 48, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 2.5, "confidenceHigh": 4.3, "cyclesObserved": 1470, "reachedPercent": 3.3, "medianWeeksToReach": 26.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 34.2, "completedReachedPercent": 7.8}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Price rose by 44.1% on average before completed downside cycles resolved. That adverse path makes unconfirmed or unbounded short positioning unsuitable.", "timing": "Price left distribution after 8.6 weeks on average, but the deepest reversal in completed cycles occurred after 50.3 weeks on average.", "finding": "26.5% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 26 weeks); 8.2% reached 20% (median 27 weeks).", "headline": "Distribution has been a downside warning before it has been a short entry", "application": "Use distribution first to review long exposure, protect gains and watch for downward confirmation. A short case needs price weakness and defined risk; distribution alone is not enough.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved lower 100.0% of the time across 11 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 1188, "repeatedCycles": 11, "completedCycles": 282, "medianAdverseMove": 13.0, "medianCycleReturn": -10.6, "averageAdverseMove": 44.1, "averageCycleReturn": -6.1, "medianFavourableMove": 11.6, "averageFavourableMove": 13.7, "medianGrossOpportunity": 10.6, "averageGrossOpportunity": 6.1, "expectedDirectionPercent": 79.4, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 0.14, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 75.5, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 7.5, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 97.4, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 26.1, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 8.6, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 11, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 74.3, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 271, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 35.0, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 50.3, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 83.7, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 100.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 74.1, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 100.0}}}, "equity": {"label": "Italy equities", "annual": [{"state": "doesNotSupport", "period": "2020", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 440, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -4.5, "confidenceLow": 35.5, "expectedCount": 176, "confidenceHigh": 44.6, "expectedPercent": 40.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 376, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -2.7, "confidenceLow": 39.7, "expectedCount": 168, "confidenceHigh": 49.7, "expectedPercent": 44.7}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 1112, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.5, "confidenceLow": 57.9, "expectedCount": 676, "confidenceHigh": 63.6, "expectedPercent": 60.8}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -1.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -20.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -10.0, "probabilityDifference": -4.7}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 936, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 49.6, "expectedCount": 494, "confidenceHigh": 56.0, "expectedPercent": 52.8}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 969, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 0.1, "confidenceLow": 45.6, "expectedCount": 472, "confidenceHigh": 51.9, "expectedPercent": 48.7}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 1112, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.5, "confidenceLow": 57.9, "expectedCount": 676, "confidenceHigh": 63.6, "expectedPercent": 60.8}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 1.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -8.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -3.8, "probabilityDifference": 4.1}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 653, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": -0.2, "confidenceLow": 43.5, "expectedCount": 309, "confidenceHigh": 51.2, "expectedPercent": 47.3}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 632, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.3, "confidenceLow": 51.3, "expectedCount": 349, "confidenceHigh": 59.1, "expectedPercent": 55.2}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 1112, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.5, "confidenceLow": 57.9, "expectedCount": 676, "confidenceHigh": 63.6, "expectedPercent": 60.8}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -3.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -13.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -5.7, "probabilityDifference": -7.9}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 618, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.8, "confidenceLow": 41.7, "expectedCount": 282, "confidenceHigh": 49.6, "expectedPercent": 45.6}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 585, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.0, "confidenceLow": 55.8, "expectedCount": 350, "confidenceHigh": 63.7, "expectedPercent": 59.8}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 1112, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.5, "confidenceLow": 57.9, "expectedCount": 676, "confidenceHigh": 63.6, "expectedPercent": 60.8}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -6.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -15.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -6.3, "probabilityDifference": -14.2}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 80, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 9.5, "confidenceLow": 51.5, "expectedCount": 50, "confidenceHigh": 72.3, "expectedPercent": 62.5}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 63, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.7, "confidenceLow": 56.0, "expectedCount": 43, "confidenceHigh": 78.4, "expectedPercent": 68.3}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 1112, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.5, "confidenceLow": 57.9, "expectedCount": 676, "confidenceHigh": 63.6, "expectedPercent": 60.8}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": 1.8, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 4.0, "probabilityDifference": -5.8}], "supports": 0, "doesNotSupport": 3}, {"state": "doesNotSupport", "period": "2021", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 241, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 3.5, "confidenceLow": 47.2, "expectedCount": 129, "confidenceHigh": 59.7, "expectedPercent": 53.5}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 332, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 3.7, "confidenceLow": 49.1, "expectedCount": 181, "confidenceHigh": 59.8, "expectedPercent": 54.5}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2158, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.2, "confidenceLow": 54.4, "expectedCount": 1220, "confidenceHigh": 58.6, "expectedPercent": 56.5}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -3.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.7, "probabilityDifference": -1.0}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 1149, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.4, "confidenceLow": 55.0, "expectedCount": 665, "confidenceHigh": 60.7, "expectedPercent": 57.9}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1104, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.1, "confidenceLow": 57.0, "expectedCount": 661, "confidenceHigh": 62.7, "expectedPercent": 59.9}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2158, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.2, "confidenceLow": 54.4, "expectedCount": 1220, "confidenceHigh": 58.6, "expectedPercent": 56.5}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -0.7, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.2, "probabilityDifference": -2.0}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 706, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.9, "confidenceLow": 58.3, "expectedCount": 437, "confidenceHigh": 65.4, "expectedPercent": 61.9}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 611, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 45.5, "expectedCount": 302, "confidenceHigh": 53.4, "expectedPercent": 49.4}, "state": "supports", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2158, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.2, "confidenceLow": 54.4, "expectedCount": 1220, "confidenceHigh": 58.6, "expectedPercent": 56.5}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 4.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 5.4, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.7, "probabilityDifference": 12.5}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 677, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 7.4, "confidenceLow": 57.9, "expectedCount": 417, "confidenceHigh": 65.2, "expectedPercent": 61.6}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 611, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 44.3, "expectedCount": 295, "confidenceHigh": 52.2, "expectedPercent": 48.3}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2158, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.2, "confidenceLow": 54.4, "expectedCount": 1220, "confidenceHigh": 58.6, "expectedPercent": 56.5}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 6.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 5.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 2.2, "probabilityDifference": 13.3}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 50, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 3.5, "confidenceLow": 27.6, "expectedCount": 20, "confidenceHigh": 53.8, "expectedPercent": 40.0}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 364, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.6, "confidenceLow": 51.5, "expectedCount": 206, "confidenceHigh": 61.6, "expectedPercent": 56.6}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2158, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.2, "confidenceLow": 54.4, "expectedCount": 1220, "confidenceHigh": 58.6, "expectedPercent": 56.5}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -3.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -16.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.7, "probabilityDifference": -16.6}], "supports": 2, "doesNotSupport": 3}, {"state": "doesNotSupport", "period": "2022", "tested": 5, "families": [{"key": "state", "left": {"sample": 426, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.2, "confidenceLow": 37.7, "expectedCount": 180, "confidenceHigh": 47.0, "expectedPercent": 42.3}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 323, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 0.4, "confidenceLow": 42.3, "expectedCount": 154, "confidenceHigh": 53.1, "expectedPercent": 47.7}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2296, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.3, "confidenceLow": 42.4, "expectedCount": 1020, "confidenceHigh": 46.5, "expectedPercent": 44.4}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -0.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.5, "probabilityDifference": -5.4}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 1176, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.4, "confidenceLow": 40.1, "expectedCount": 504, "confidenceHigh": 45.7, "expectedPercent": 42.9}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1215, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.1, "confidenceLow": 46.1, "expectedCount": 594, "confidenceHigh": 51.7, "expectedPercent": 48.9}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2296, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.3, "confidenceLow": 42.4, "expectedCount": 1020, "confidenceHigh": 46.5, "expectedPercent": 44.4}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -1.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.7, "probabilityDifference": -6.0}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 624, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.4, "confidenceLow": 36.6, "expectedCount": 252, "confidenceHigh": 44.3, "expectedPercent": 40.4}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 867, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.7, "confidenceLow": 39.2, "expectedCount": 368, "confidenceHigh": 45.8, "expectedPercent": 42.4}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2296, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.3, "confidenceLow": 42.4, "expectedCount": 1020, "confidenceHigh": 46.5, "expectedPercent": 44.4}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 0.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -4.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.7, "probabilityDifference": -2.0}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 613, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.7, "confidenceLow": 45.5, "expectedCount": 303, "confidenceHigh": 53.4, "expectedPercent": 49.4}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 813, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -2.7, "confidenceLow": 31.1, "expectedCount": 279, "confidenceHigh": 37.6, "expectedPercent": 34.3}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2296, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.3, "confidenceLow": 42.4, "expectedCount": 1020, "confidenceHigh": 46.5, "expectedPercent": 44.4}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 4.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 5.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 1.4, "probabilityDifference": 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{"sample": 384, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -1.6, "confidenceLow": 39.6, "expectedCount": 171, "confidenceHigh": 49.5, "expectedPercent": 44.5}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 393, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.3, "confidenceLow": 40.2, "expectedCount": 177, "confidenceHigh": 50.0, "expectedPercent": 45.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Positive and negative Market Dynamics states", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2583, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.1, "confidenceLow": 44.7, "expectedCount": 1204, "confidenceHigh": 48.5, "expectedPercent": 46.6}, "leftLabel": "Positive state", "rightLabel": "Negative state", "returnDifference": -1.3, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -1.7, "probabilityDifference": -0.5}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 1272, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.0, "confidenceLow": 44.4, "expectedCount": 599, "confidenceHigh": 49.8, "expectedPercent": 47.1}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 1215, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.5, "confidenceLow": 41.8, "expectedCount": 542, "confidenceHigh": 47.4, "expectedPercent": 44.6}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2583, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.1, "confidenceLow": 44.7, "expectedCount": 1204, "confidenceHigh": 48.5, "expectedPercent": 46.6}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.1, "probabilityDifference": 2.5}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 823, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.7, "confidenceLow": 42.7, "expectedCount": 379, "confidenceHigh": 49.5, "expectedPercent": 46.1}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 824, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.5, "confidenceLow": 43.0, "expectedCount": 382, "confidenceHigh": 49.8, "expectedPercent": 46.4}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2583, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.1, "confidenceLow": 44.7, "expectedCount": 1204, "confidenceHigh": 48.5, "expectedPercent": 46.6}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.5, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.8, "probabilityDifference": -0.3}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 706, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.5, "confidenceLow": 40.2, "expectedCount": 309, "confidenceHigh": 47.5, "expectedPercent": 43.8}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 806, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.0, "confidenceLow": 42.1, "expectedCount": 367, "confidenceHigh": 49.0, "expectedPercent": 45.5}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 2583, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.1, "confidenceLow": 44.7, "expectedCount": 1204, "confidenceHigh": 48.5, "expectedPercent": 46.6}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -0.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.6, "probabilityDifference": -1.7}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 183, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 0.3, "confidenceLow": 38.3, "expectedCount": 83, "confidenceHigh": 52.6, "expectedPercent": 45.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 221, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.4, "confidenceLow": 55.9, "expectedCount": 138, "confidenceHigh": 68.6, "expectedPercent": 62.4}, "state": 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state as actionable.", "headline": "The sign describes the backdrop, not a directional trigger", "observed": "At 26 weeks, positive state was followed by a higher price in 48.5% of cases: -2.6 points versus negative state and -3.2 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was -0.8 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -1.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -5.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -2.4, "probabilityDifference": -4.2}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 8122, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 48.1, "expectedCount": 3998, "confidenceHigh": 50.3, "expectedPercent": 49.2}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 8078, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.5, "confidenceLow": 49.5, "expectedCount": 4089, "confidenceHigh": 51.7, "expectedPercent": 50.6}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15335, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.9, "confidenceLow": 49.7, "expectedCount": 7737, "confidenceHigh": 51.2, "expectedPercent": 50.5}, "horizons": [{"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 8371, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.4, "confidenceLow": 45.2, "expectedCount": 3872, "confidenceHigh": 47.3, "expectedPercent": 46.3}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 8377, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.2, "confidenceLow": 46.5, "expectedCount": 3982, "confidenceHigh": 48.6, "expectedPercent": 47.5}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 15821, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.6, "confidenceLow": 47.4, "expectedCount": 7620, "confidenceHigh": 48.9, "expectedPercent": 48.2}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.2, "probabilityDifference": -1.2}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 8122, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.3, "confidenceLow": 48.1, "expectedCount": 3998, "confidenceHigh": 50.3, "expectedPercent": 49.2}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 8078, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.5, "confidenceLow": 49.5, "expectedCount": 4089, "confidenceHigh": 51.7, "expectedPercent": 50.6}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15335, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.9, "confidenceLow": 49.7, "expectedCount": 7737, "confidenceHigh": 51.2, "expectedPercent": 50.5}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": -0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.6, "probabilityDifference": -1.4}, {"key": "direction", "left": {"sample": 7672, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 3.7, "confidenceLow": 49.7, "expectedCount": 3902, "confidenceHigh": 52.0, "expectedPercent": 50.9}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 7704, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 3.7, "confidenceLow": 50.5, "expectedCount": 3978, "confidenceHigh": 52.8, "expectedPercent": 51.6}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Strengthening and weakening Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 14417, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.2, "confidenceLow": 50.9, "expectedCount": 7460, "confidenceHigh": 52.6, "expectedPercent": 51.7}, "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "returnDifference": 0.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.5, "probabilityDifference": -0.7}], "leftLabel": "Strengthening", "rightLabel": "Weakening", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use strengthening or weakening to judge whether an existing price move is gaining or losing support.", "role": "Confirmation only", "avoid": "Do not act on a one-period change without checking whether the price structure agrees.", "label": "Weak separation", "state": "weak", "confirm": "Look for persistence in the change and a compatible response from price before increasing conviction.", "headline": "Strengthening and weakening are confirmation, not timing signals alone", "observed": "At 4 weeks, strengthening was followed by a higher price in 46.3% of cases: -1.2 points versus weakening and -1.9 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +0.2 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.3, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.6, "probabilityDifference": -1.4}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 5055, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.4, "confidenceLow": 47.4, "expectedCount": 2468, "confidenceHigh": 50.2, "expectedPercent": 48.8}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 5136, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.2, "confidenceLow": 47.3, "expectedCount": 2500, "confidenceHigh": 50.0, "expectedPercent": 48.7}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15335, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.9, "confidenceLow": 49.7, "expectedCount": 7737, "confidenceHigh": 51.2, "expectedPercent": 50.5}, "horizons": [{"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 5242, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.2, "confidenceLow": 44.1, "expectedCount": 2380, "confidenceHigh": 46.8, "expectedPercent": 45.4}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 5261, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.4, "confidenceLow": 46.6, "expectedCount": 2523, "confidenceHigh": 49.3, "expectedPercent": 48.0}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 15821, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.6, "confidenceLow": 47.4, "expectedCount": 7620, "confidenceHigh": 48.9, "expectedPercent": 48.2}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": -0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -2.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.4, "probabilityDifference": -2.6}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 5055, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.4, "confidenceLow": 47.4, "expectedCount": 2468, "confidenceHigh": 50.2, "expectedPercent": 48.8}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 5136, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.2, "confidenceLow": 47.3, "expectedCount": 2500, "confidenceHigh": 50.0, "expectedPercent": 48.7}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15335, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.9, "confidenceLow": 49.7, "expectedCount": 7737, "confidenceHigh": 51.2, "expectedPercent": 50.5}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.5, "probabilityDifference": 0.1}, {"key": "agreement", "left": {"sample": 4829, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.8, "confidenceLow": 51.2, "expectedCount": 2541, "confidenceHigh": 54.0, "expectedPercent": 52.6}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 4833, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 2.3, "confidenceLow": 47.2, "expectedCount": 2347, "confidenceHigh": 50.0, "expectedPercent": 48.6}, "state": "supports", "title": "Agreement in both directions", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 14417, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.2, "confidenceLow": 50.9, "expectedCount": 7460, "confidenceHigh": 52.6, "expectedPercent": 51.7}, "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "returnDifference": 2.5, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.6, "probabilityDifference": 4.0}], "leftLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics positive", "rightLabel": "Price and Market Dynamics negative", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use agreement to distinguish supported trends from moves that lack confirmation.", "role": "Conditional research angle", "avoid": "Do not confuse alignment with certainty; an aligned market can still reverse.", "label": "Horizon-specific", "state": "selective", "confirm": "Check that the advantage remains visible beyond the shortest horizon and repeats across completed years.", "headline": "Agreement improves conviction at the horizons where it persists", "observed": "At 26 weeks, price and market dynamics positive was followed by a higher price in 52.6% of cases: +4.0 points versus price and market dynamics negative and +0.9 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +2.5 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 1 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 1, "supportingHorizons": 1}, "returnDifference": 0.2, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.7, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.5, "probabilityDifference": 0.1}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 4830, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.8, "confidenceLow": 49.0, "expectedCount": 2437, "confidenceHigh": 51.9, "expectedPercent": 50.5}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 4903, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.8, "confidenceLow": 45.3, "expectedCount": 2289, "confidenceHigh": 48.1, "expectedPercent": 46.7}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15335, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.9, "confidenceLow": 49.7, "expectedCount": 7737, "confidenceHigh": 51.2, "expectedPercent": 50.5}, "horizons": [{"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 5032, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.1, "confidenceLow": 46.6, "expectedCount": 2414, "confidenceHigh": 49.4, "expectedPercent": 48.0}, "label": "Partial separation", "right": {"sample": 5022, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.5, "confidenceLow": 44.2, "expectedCount": 2287, "confidenceHigh": 46.9, "expectedPercent": 45.5}, "state": "mixed", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 15821, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.6, "confidenceLow": 47.4, "expectedCount": 7620, "confidenceHigh": 48.9, "expectedPercent": 48.2}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": -0.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -0.2, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.5, "probabilityDifference": 2.5}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 4830, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.8, "confidenceLow": 49.0, "expectedCount": 2437, "confidenceHigh": 51.9, "expectedPercent": 50.5}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 4903, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.8, "confidenceLow": 45.3, "expectedCount": 2289, "confidenceHigh": 48.1, "expectedPercent": 46.7}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15335, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.9, "confidenceLow": 49.7, "expectedCount": 7737, "confidenceHigh": 51.2, "expectedPercent": 50.5}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 1.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.1, "probabilityDifference": 3.8}, {"key": "divergence", "left": {"sample": 4635, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.8, "confidenceLow": 51.4, "expectedCount": 2448, "confidenceHigh": 54.2, "expectedPercent": 52.8}, "label": "Clear separation", "right": {"sample": 4608, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.7, "confidenceLow": 47.4, "expectedCount": 2251, "confidenceHigh": 50.3, "expectedPercent": 48.8}, "state": "supports", "title": "Disagreement between price and Market Dynamics", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 14417, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.2, "confidenceLow": 50.9, "expectedCount": 7460, "confidenceHigh": 52.6, "expectedPercent": 51.7}, "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "returnDifference": 2.1, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 1.1, "leftVsBaselineReturn": 0.6, "probabilityDifference": 4.0}], "leftLabel": "Market Dynamics stronger than price", "rightLabel": "Price stronger than Market Dynamics", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use disagreement to identify prices that may be early or late relative to the underlying market behaviour.", "role": "Conditional research angle", "avoid": "Do not assume every divergence must close, or that it must close immediately.", "label": "Horizon-specific", "state": "selective", "confirm": "Wait for price to begin resolving toward Market Dynamics, or for a separate signal to confirm the change.", "headline": "Market Dynamics leading price is an early-change watchlist angle", "observed": "At 26 weeks, market dynamics stronger than price was followed by a higher price in 52.8% of cases: +4.0 points versus price stronger than market dynamics and +1.1 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was +2.1 points.", "bestHorizon": 26, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 2 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 2, "supportingHorizons": 2}, "returnDifference": 1.0, "leftVsBaselinePoints": 0.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.1, "probabilityDifference": 3.8}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 954, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.3, "confidenceLow": 40.5, "expectedCount": 416, "confidenceHigh": 46.8, "expectedPercent": 43.6}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1433, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.1, "confidenceLow": 56.6, "expectedCount": 848, "confidenceHigh": 61.7, "expectedPercent": 59.2}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15335, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.9, "confidenceLow": 49.7, "expectedCount": 7737, "confidenceHigh": 51.2, "expectedPercent": 50.5}, "horizons": [{"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 994, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 0.2, "confidenceLow": 44.1, "expectedCount": 469, "confidenceHigh": 50.3, "expectedPercent": 47.2}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1472, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.6, "confidenceLow": 49.3, "expectedCount": 764, "confidenceHigh": 54.4, "expectedPercent": 51.9}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 4, "baseline": {"sample": 15821, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": 0.6, "confidenceLow": 47.4, "expectedCount": 7620, "confidenceHigh": 48.9, "expectedPercent": 48.2}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -1.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -1.0, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -0.4, "probabilityDifference": -4.7}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 954, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -0.3, "confidenceLow": 40.5, "expectedCount": 416, "confidenceHigh": 46.8, "expectedPercent": 43.6}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1433, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 5.1, "confidenceLow": 56.6, "expectedCount": 848, "confidenceHigh": 61.7, "expectedPercent": 59.2}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 12, "baseline": {"sample": 15335, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 1.9, "confidenceLow": 49.7, "expectedCount": 7737, "confidenceHigh": 51.2, "expectedPercent": 50.5}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -5.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -6.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -2.2, "probabilityDifference": -15.6}, {"key": "zones", "left": {"sample": 894, "confidence": "Historically adverse", "averageReturn": -2.4, "confidenceLow": 36.8, "expectedCount": 357, "confidenceHigh": 43.2, "expectedPercent": 39.9}, "label": "No supportive separation", "right": {"sample": 1344, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 12.2, "confidenceLow": 59.9, "expectedCount": 840, "confidenceHigh": 65.0, "expectedPercent": 62.5}, "state": "doesNotSupport", "title": "Accumulation and distribution", "weeks": 26, "baseline": {"sample": 14417, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 4.2, "confidenceLow": 50.9, "expectedCount": 7460, "confidenceHigh": 52.6, "expectedPercent": 51.7}, "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "returnDifference": -14.6, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -11.8, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -6.6, "probabilityDifference": -22.6}], "leftLabel": "Accumulation", "rightLabel": "Distribution", "edgeProfile": {"use": "Use accumulation and distribution to frame price location, patience, risk and the quality of a later signal.", "role": "Context and risk control", "avoid": "Do not buy solely because price is in accumulation or sell solely because it is in distribution.", "label": "No standalone edge", "state": "none", "confirm": "Look for a completed move out of the zone and a compatible Market Dynamics signal before treating location as timing.", "headline": "The zones describe location and risk, not a stand-alone reversal trigger", "observed": "At 4 weeks, accumulation was followed by a higher price in 47.2% of cases: -4.7 points versus distribution and -1.0 points versus the normal US outcome. The average-return difference versus the opposite condition was -1.4 points.", "bestHorizon": 4, "persistence": "The comparison showed clear separation in 0 of 7 completed calendar-period tests.", "measuredYears": 7, "testedHorizons": 3, "supportingYears": 0, "supportingHorizons": 0}, "returnDifference": -5.4, "leftVsBaselinePoints": -6.9, "leftVsBaselineReturn": -2.2, "probabilityDifference": -15.6}], "buySignalCaseStudy": {"title": "First valid Market Dynamics signal", "horizons": [{"test": {"label": "Some support", "state": "mixed", "returnDifference": 1.9, "directionalEdgePoints": 2.9}, "weeks": 4, "sample": 442, "confidence": "Mixed historical record", "averageReturn": 2.5, "confidenceLow": 46.5, "expectedCount": 226, "confidenceHigh": 55.8, "baselinePercent": 48.2, "expectedPercent": 51.1, "baselineAverageReturn": 0.6}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 4.9, "directionalEdgePoints": 12.7}, "weeks": 12, "sample": 413, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 6.8, "confidenceLow": 58.4, "expectedCount": 261, "confidenceHigh": 67.7, "baselinePercent": 50.5, "expectedPercent": 63.2, "baselineAverageReturn": 1.9}, {"test": {"label": "Supports an edge", "state": "supports", "returnDifference": 11.2, "directionalEdgePoints": 22.2}, "weeks": 26, "sample": 375, "confidence": "Historically consistent", "averageReturn": 15.4, "confidenceLow": 69.2, "expectedCount": 277, "confidenceHigh": 78.1, "baselinePercent": 51.7, "expectedPercent": 73.9, "baselineAverageReturn": 4.2}], "expectedDirection": "higher"}, "positioningOutcomes": {"accumulation": {"use": "Long positioning", "label": "Accumulation to distribution", "cycles": 197, "thresholds": [{"reached": 164, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 77.4, "confidenceHigh": 87.8, "cyclesObserved": 197, "reachedPercent": 83.2, "medianWeeksToReach": 5.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 12.8, "completedReachedPercent": 92.0}, {"reached": 140, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 64.4, "confidenceHigh": 76.9, "cyclesObserved": 197, "reachedPercent": 71.1, "medianWeeksToReach": 8.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 15.9, "completedReachedPercent": 88.6}, {"reached": 111, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 49.4, "confidenceHigh": 63.1, "cyclesObserved": 197, "reachedPercent": 56.3, "medianWeeksToReach": 18, "averageWeeksToReach": 24.4, "completedReachedPercent": 85.2}, {"reached": 86, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 36.9, "confidenceHigh": 50.6, "cyclesObserved": 197, "reachedPercent": 43.7, "medianWeeksToReach": 30.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 37.3, "completedReachedPercent": 76.1}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Completed cycles experienced an average adverse move of 18.2% before resolution. Position size and confirmation still matter.", "timing": "The condition lasted 8.6 weeks on average before price left accumulation, while the best advance in completed cycles occurred after 58.1 weeks on average.", "finding": "71.1% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 8 weeks); 56.3% reached 20% (median 18 weeks).", "headline": "Accumulation has been most useful as a patient long-positioning window", "application": "Use accumulation to prepare a long case, then require price confirmation before increasing conviction. The condition is a positioning context rather than a stand-alone instruction to buy.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved higher 77.8% of the time across 9 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 109, "repeatedCycles": 9, "completedCycles": 88, "medianAdverseMove": 13.1, "medianCycleReturn": 39.8, "averageAdverseMove": 18.2, "averageCycleReturn": 45.2, "medianFavourableMove": 42.2, "averageFavourableMove": 48.9, "medianGrossOpportunity": 39.8, "averageGrossOpportunity": 45.2, "expectedDirectionPercent": 92.0, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 2.49, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 76.5, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 3.7, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 95.9, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 31.8, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 8.6, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 9, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 84.5, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 79, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 46.5, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 58.1, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 96.1, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 77.8, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 45.3, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 93.7}, "distribution": {"use": "Downside risk and short positioning", "label": "Distribution to accumulation", "cycles": 210, "thresholds": [{"reached": 146, "movePercent": 5, "confidenceLow": 63.0, "confidenceHigh": 75.4, "cyclesObserved": 210, "reachedPercent": 69.5, "medianWeeksToReach": 5.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 20.2, "completedReachedPercent": 80.0}, {"reached": 112, "movePercent": 10, "confidenceLow": 46.6, "confidenceHigh": 60.0, "cyclesObserved": 210, "reachedPercent": 53.3, "medianWeeksToReach": 15.0, "averageWeeksToReach": 27.3, "completedReachedPercent": 72.9}, {"reached": 67, "movePercent": 20, "confidenceLow": 26.0, "confidenceHigh": 38.5, "cyclesObserved": 210, "reachedPercent": 31.9, "medianWeeksToReach": 34, "averageWeeksToReach": 39.9, "completedReachedPercent": 51.8}, {"reached": 34, "movePercent": 30, "confidenceLow": 11.8, "confidenceHigh": 21.8, "cyclesObserved": 210, "reachedPercent": 16.2, "medianWeeksToReach": 45.5, "averageWeeksToReach": 48.6, "completedReachedPercent": 31.8}], "strategyUse": {"risk": "Price rose by 68.4% on average before completed downside cycles resolved. That adverse path makes unconfirmed or unbounded short positioning unsuitable.", "timing": "Price left distribution after 7.3 weeks on average, but the deepest reversal in completed cycles occurred after 58.0 weeks on average.", "finding": "53.3% of all cycles reached a 10% move in the expected direction (median 15 weeks); 31.9% reached 20% (median 34 weeks).", "headline": "Distribution has been a downside warning before it has been a short entry", "application": "Use distribution first to review long exposure, protect gains and watch for downward confirmation. A short case needs price weakness and defined risk; distribution alone is not enough.", "repeatability": "Later completed cycles resolved lower 100.0% of the time across 3 repeat cycles."}, "activeCycles": 125, "repeatedCycles": 3, "completedCycles": 85, "medianAdverseMove": 30.4, "medianCycleReturn": -18.2, "averageAdverseMove": 68.4, "averageCycleReturn": -10.0, "medianFavourableMove": 20.4, "averageFavourableMove": 22.8, "medianGrossOpportunity": 18.2, "averageGrossOpportunity": 10.0, "expectedDirectionPercent": 69.4, "grossRewardToAdverseMove": 0.15, "medianWeeksToOpposingZone": 136, "averageGivebackFromExtreme": 12.8, "averageWeeksToOpposingZone": 129.2, "averageRepeatGrossOpportunity": 28.3, "averageWeeksBeforeLeavingZone": 7.3, "instrumentsWithMultipleCycles": 3, "expectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 59.0, "instrumentsWithCompletedCycles": 82, "medianWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 52, "averageWeeksToFavourableExtreme": 58.0, "expectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 78.2, "repeatedExpectedDirectionPercent": 100.0, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceLow": 43.9, "repeatedExpectedDirectionConfidenceHigh": 100.0}}}}}, "methodBoundary": "Public outcomes and sample sizes only. Proprietary signal construction is not disclosed."}